Don't be surprised if Josh Jacobs is the first round target for McBeane.

[formerlyofCtown]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I know you want to believe that but listen to the GM and look at his background. His old boss took a back at 2 last year. These guys believe in that and the most trusted in the scouting community are falling in love with Jacobs. Miller and Jeremiah are two of my favorites and they are both extremely high on him. I don’t think it’s likely but this crew has drafted backs early, often. It absolutely isn’t impossible. A back is high on their needs list as it is.

Running back is an important position to them.

Actually they are still happy with McCoy.

What you are really saying is that RB is high on your list.

Edited January 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

No. It's about odds and probability. 

Oh.

Math.
 

 Tom is a weird "dude" probably.
 

 and Bills had best not be considering a running back in the first round unless they have traded so well they have 3 1st rounders and two seconds and two thirds.
It could happen though.

?

 cheers John

 : ) 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, before hating it let’s learn a little about the player. This is my plea for the entire draft season to all of us. These guys have drafted well. That’s an area where they have earned some trust. Before we fall in love or hate a player let’s at least know the player. This way we can discuss the pros and cons at a much deeper level.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/19/5-play-prospect-rb-joshua-jacobs/

You are creating a false paradigm. It's not about loving or hating a player. Do you honestly believe that if McDermott had an opportunity to draft an elite pass rusher or even a top tier CB or offensive lineman he would instead take a back, a position where a lot of other highly talented backs can be had with a lower pick? 

[3rdand12]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Running back is an important position to them.

it should be. this is good news.
fix the line, get the pass game going

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I have no doubt that scouts are raving about this back. But he is not going to be rated in the top ten where we are drafting. Even if he is rated that high it is still unlikely that McBeane would use it for a back. It would make no sense for us. It might make sense for a team that has a fuller roster and more robust OL. But from where we are drafting and considering our priority needs I just don't see it. 

 

If a highly touted back was on the board when we were drafting in the second round I would be receptive to taking a prime time back. But it makes little sense where we are currently drafting. If the Bills traded down and accumulated additional picks I would be more receptive to the possibility. 

Jeremiah has Jacobs at 6 (the 1st offensive player on his board) and I believe Miller said he’s in his top 10. Jeremiah is mocking him 5 to the Bucs. It isn’t fair to say that he isn’t going to be rated in the top 10. We don’t know that. We know some respected minds think he is.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Put me in the no chance happening camp 

 

OL/WR first 

 

Some mocks have him to Bucs at 5 

I'm in the no chance camp also.  Running backs from later rounds have excelled all over the league in the recent past.  Teddy's got this right in my opinion.  Free agent signings will set the stage for what Beane will do in the draft.  He might even pull off a trade to fill one of the obvious needs.  Beane has been fairly unpredictable.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

You are creating a false paradigm. It's not about loving or hating a player. Do you honestly believe that if McDermott had an opportunity to draft an elite pass rusher or even a top tier CB or offensive lineman he would instead take a back, a position where a lot of other highly talented backs can be had with a lower pick? 

I believe that they will draft the best player on their board (excluding QB). I am ABSOLUTELY not ruling out any other position on a team that lacks talent. 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I actually would be surprised. McD has yet to use a single draft asset on a RB in two drafts. Not even a 7th rounder. Not even the free 5th they got for TD Mike. Every year I hope it changes. I actually would like a high pick spent on one. But I would be very surprised if it happened. They don’t seem to value rookie RBs. I could see a FA pickup, that seems to be the pattern 

 

McBeane signed Tolbert in 2017...what more do you want?  I'm sure they could drag Deangelo Williams out of retirement this year if need be.  I think they'd like to lead the league in 30+ year old RBs.

 

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

FWIW, before hating it let’s learn a little about the player. This is my plea for the entire draft season to all of us. These guys have drafted well. That’s an area where they have earned some trust. Before we fall in love or hate a player let’s at least know the player. This way we can discuss the pros and cons at a much deeper level.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/19/5-play-prospect-rb-joshua-jacobs/

 

Not enough time has elapsed to judge their drafts.  There's been some ups and some downs so far, notably with White and Milano, but then Dawkins and Jones from 2017.  2018 I'm not counting yet.  

 

This is a team that may be looking at 7-8 starters on offense.  To draft well is great...but that's par for the course and getting starters in UFA for one off-season will be a challenge. Not impossible, but difficult. 

[JohnC]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Jeremiah has Jacobs at 6 (the 1st offensive player on his board) and I believe Miller said he’s in his top 10. Jeremiah is mocking him 5 to the Bucs. It isn’t fair to say that he isn’t going to be rated in the top 10. We don’t know that. We know some respected minds think he is.

As I stated in my prior post it is very improbable that McBeane would take a back even if he was rated in the top five to ten. I'm not arguing that he isn't worthy of being a top rated player in this draft. However, I am saying I am exceeding confident that this regime won't take a back with their first pick. The odds for Canisius College making the final four this year is higher than if we would draft a running back in the first round.  

[Thurman#1]

36 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’m not sure what all this means, but my original point still stands...No RB in the first round, especially when (arguably) the best back in the league is available for nothing.

 

Kareem Hunt? He's irrelevant to us. They aren't taking him.

 

36 minutes ago, mannc said:

No.  They did not.  The Giants could have gotten essentially the same production by taking Phillip Lindsey in round 7.  

 

2028 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs is "essentially the same production" as 1278 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs?

 

Yeah, um, no.

 

I'd've gone QB if I were in the Giants shoes, but the Barkley pick is very defensible.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

McBeane signed Tolbert in 2017...what more do you want?  I'm sure they could drag Deangelo Williams out of retirement this year if need be.  I think they'd like to lead the league in 30+ year old RBs.

 

 

Not enough time has elapsed to judge their drafts.  There's been some ups and some downs so far, notably with White and Milano, but then Dawkins and Jones from 2017.  2018 I'm not counting yet.  

 

This is a team that may be looking at 7-8 starters on offense.  To draft well is great...but that's par for the course and getting starters in UFA for one off-season will be a challenge. Not impossible, but difficult. 

I guess that in a 2 year span they get credit from me (who was a wait and see guy) on their rookies. Tre, Milano, Wallace, Johnson, Foster, Edmunds, Zay, Dawkins, and Phillips have all contributed off the top of my head. Part of that is because the team hasn’t been great but partly because they added the right guys. 

[billsfan89]

I would love to see the Bills be super aggressive in free agency. I think 2 high end OL starters and a front line WR would be an excellent way to build some talent leading into the draft. I would also like to see a pass rusher added to the mix on defense. But I think more realistically they go with one big OL move, one mid-level WR move, and some mid-level depth moves. I just don't see McBeane wanting to go that aggressive in free agency. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that they will draft the best player on their board (excluding QB). I am ABSOLUTELY not ruling out any other position on a team that lacks talent. 

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with you that the Bills will not draft a back in the first round. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

As I stated in my prior post it is very improbable that McBeane would take a back even if he was rated in the top five to ten. I'm not arguing that he isn't worthy of being a top rated player in this draft. However, I am saying I am exceeding confident that this regime won't take a back with their first pick. The odds for Canisius College making the final four this year is higher than if we would draft a running back in the first round.  

It’s not though. You are ignoring history John. Carolina took one in 2006, 2008, 2017 and then Beane’s boss took one in 2018. These are the people that Beane learned from. He may very well think Jacobs is the best weapon in the draft (as Jeremiah thinks). It isn’t impossible to believe that the Bills would want that guy. They aren’t exactly loaded with playmakers. Pretending it ISN’T an option is burying your head in the sand and hoping. It absolutely is a possibility (as are many other guys at this point).

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with you that the Bills will not draft a back in the first round. 

Again, that’s based on what you are hoping. They have never said that. They want to add a guy there. The Panthers (and Gettleman) have had a history of doing it. You aren’t using the past to shape your opinion. You are basing it on what you hope. 

[Thurman#1]

16 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Running back is an important position to them.

Actually they are still happy with McCoy.

What you are really saying is that RB is high on your list.

 

 

Yes, they're still happy with McCoy. Lorax too. But that doesn't mean they're not looking to find their long-term replacements as a significant priority.

 

Can't speak for him but it sure looks to me like he's saying RB is high on OBD's list, which it is.

 

This is possible. I'm rooting against it, and I think it's unlikely, but it could happen.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Thurman#1

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s not though. You are ignoring history John. Carolina took one in 2006, 2008, 2017 and then Beane’s boss took one in 2018. These are the people that Beane learned from. He may very well think Jacobs is the best weapon in the draft (as Jeremiah thinks). It isn’t impossible to believe that the Bills would want that guy. They aren’t exactly loaded with playmakers. Pretending it ISN’T an option is burying your head in the sand and hoping. It absolutely is a possibility (as are many other guys at this point).

Again, that’s based on what you are hoping. They have never said that. They want to add a guy there. The Panthers (and Gettleman) have had a history of doing it. You aren’t using the past to shape your opinion. You are basing it on what you hope. 

I steadfastly stand by my view that the Bills will not draft a back in the first round where we are currently positioned. Is it possible? Anything is theoretically possible. However, it's so improbable that it borders on impossibility. 

[HappyDays]

I generally hate 1st round RBs. But I'd make an exception for Jacobs IF we trade down. Great attitude and love for the game, excellent blocking running and pass catching, and low mileage since he wasn't a feature back at Alabama. Our best Super Bowl window is on Allen's rookie deal so I would accept drafting a young RB in the 1st to give us some kind of rush offense for the next 4 years. I still wouldn't take any RB in the top 10 but if we trade down to 15 and draft him I'd accept that.

[formerlyofCtown]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, they're still happy with McCoy. Lorax too. But that doesn't mean they're not looking to find their long-term replacements as a significant priority.

 

Can't speak for him but it sure looks to me like he's saying RB is high on OBD's list, which it is.

 

This is possible. I'm rooting against it, and I think it's unlikely, but it could happen.

Usually when you pick a non- QB that high it isnt a down the Road replacement.  Hopefully its the Best player available.

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Kareem Hunt? He's irrelevant to us. They aren't taking him.

 

 

2028 scrimmage yards and 15 TDs is "essentially the same production" as 1278 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs?

 

Yeah, um, no.

 

I'd've gone QB if I were in the Giants shoes, but the Barkley pick is very defensible.

Lindsey played fewer games than Barkley.  Compare them on a per game basis and it’s quite close.

 

hunt is hardly irrelevant 

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I steadfastly stand by my view that the Bills will not draft a back in the first round where we are currently positioned. Is it possible? Anything is theoretically possible. However, it's so improbable that it borders on impossibility. 

My issue though is you aren’t basing that on anything. I’m giving you multiple reasons as to why it’s possible. The scouting community being high on him and the history of Beane’s mentors dictate that it’s possible. The Bills RB is coming off of his worst season, has a big cap number and is on the last 3 holes of his career. The Bills lack playmakers all over the field. A 3 down back that blocks and is a high level receiver is certainly appealing to them. This holds especially true when the Bills OC was his OC in college. That’s a LOT of reasons to believe that it could happen. 

30 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Running back is an important position to them.

Actually they are still happy with McCoy.

What you are really saying is that RB is high on your list.

Not saying that at all. I’m on record as saying I’d draft a defensive player in the top 10 because I believe that’s where the top end talent is. If you read what I wrote (which you never do) there are a lot of reasons to believe it is possible. See the previous post...

Edited January 24, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My issue though is you aren’t basing that on anything. I’m giving you multiple reasons as to why it’s possible. The scouting community being high on him and the history of Beane’s mentors dictate that it’s possible. The Bills RB is coming off of his worst season, has a big cap number and Ian on the last 3 holes of his career. The Bills lack playmakers all over the field. A 3 down back that blocks and is a high level receiver is certainly appealing to them. This holds especially true when the Bills OC was his OC in college. That’s a LOT of reasons to believe that it could happen. 

I think I’m the only one who actually wants this to happen - but I feel I will be let down again on a RB. I think Sean call the shots and they have used zero draft capital on a RB the last 2 years. It’s excruciating. I don’t understand why they won’t draft one. 

[Coach Tuesday]

It’s just not good value or resource allocation.

 

What’s more, it would take either extreme stupidity or giant cajones to spend a top 10 pick on a part-time running back in a “win or else” year for this regime.  Plus Shady is making $8m.  They’d have to be insane.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think I’m the only one who actually wants this to happen - but I feel I will be let down again on a RB. I think Sean call the shots and they have used zero draft capital on a RB the last 2 years. It’s excruciating. I don’t understand why they won’t draft one. 

I like the player but don’t want him in the 1st. He’s going to be a good pro though. I still lean towards the front 7 which is where the talent is IMO.

[formerlyofCtown]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My issue though is you aren’t basing that on anything. I’m giving you multiple reasons as to why it’s possible. The scouting community being high on him and the history of Beane’s mentors dictate that it’s possible. The Bills RB is coming off of his worst season, has a big cap number and is on the last 3 holes of his career. The Bills lack playmakers all over the field. A 3 down back that blocks and is a high level receiver is certainly appealing to them. This holds especially true when the Bills OC was his OC in college. That’s a LOT of reasons to believe that it could happen. 

Not saying that at all. I’m on record as saying I’d draft a defensive player in the top 10 because I believe that’s where the top end talent is. If you read what I wrote (which you never do) there are a lot of reasons to believe it is possible. See the previous post...

Fair enough and sometimes I do move backwards after my first post in a thread so sorry.  I dont get where people are getting that RB is a high priority.  Beane clearly blames a lot of the woes on the line play.

Edited January 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Formerly Allan in MD]

You got one thing right: I'd be quite upset.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My issue though is you aren’t basing that on anything. I’m giving you multiple reasons as to why it’s possible. The scouting community being high on him and the history ofBeane’s mentors dictate that it’s possible. The Bills RB is coming off of his worst season, has a big cap number and Ian on the last 3 holes of his career. The Bills lack playmakers all over the field. A 3 down back that blocks and is a high level receiver is certainly appealing to them. This holds especially true when the Bills OC was his OC in college. That’s a LOT of reasons to believe that it could happen. 

Why would we draft a top shelf back in the first round when we could get a top shelf back in the second round. This is a position, more than any other position, where you can still select a high yield back at a lower round. I'm not arguing that we don't need a back. In fact, I have advocated for it. But from the Bills perspective I still see it as being very improbable. If you want to argue possible, then so be it. But I just don't see it rising to the level of being reasonably probable.  

 

It's still early in the draft process. I'm not denying that he isn't a terrific prospect. But I still have some doubt that he will be rated in the top ten when the evaluation comes close to concluding. Let's just wait and see how this shakes out.

[noacls]

Could happen. Shady is not a feature back anymore. A running back is needed in the draft somewhere, preferably in the first 3 rounds. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I like the player but don’t want him in the 1st. He’s going to be a good pro though. I still lean towards the front 7 which is where the talent is IMO.

Now we are in sync! 

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I like the player but don’t want him in the 1st. He’s going to be a good pro though. I still lean towards the front 7 which is where the talent is IMO.

I honestly don’t care which position they take in the 1st. Just take a good player. They need everything. If he’s BPA I would take him, no issue for me. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Fair enough and sometimes I do move backwards after my first post in a thread so sorry.  I dont get where people are getting that RB is a high priority.  Beane clearly blames a lot of the woes on the line play.

And I agree that the OL is a much bigger problem. If they add 2 or 3 starters in FA (which is possible to likely IMO) it becomes less of a need. They’ll still draft a guy or 2 there but their hand won’t be forced. 

[formerlyofCtown]

9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think I’m the only one who actually wants this to happen - but I feel I will be let down again on a RB. I think Sean call the shots and they have used zero draft capital on a RB the last 2 years. It’s excruciating. I don’t understand why they won’t draft one. 

Because they have McCoy.  I will drip a load if they take one in the first.  I do believe they take one in the 3rd-5th round though.  You need to understand that E/P offense does normally use 1featured back.  When is the last time NE took a RB high in the draft.

Edited January 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Not at the table Karlos]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I think I’m the only one who actually wants this to happen - but I feel I will be let down again on a RB. I think Sean call the shots and they have used zero draft capital on a RB the last 2 years. It’s excruciating. I don’t understand why they won’t draft one. 

I am a huge jacobs fan. I would prefer we got him in rd 2 or even a trade down but that might not be possible. But Ill go on record with you that i would be happy if we drafted him.  The kid does it all. He seems like the type of back that mcbeane would fall in love with. If hes bpa why not. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Not at the table Karlos

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Because they have McCoy.  I will drip a load if they take one in the first.  I do believe they take one in the 3rd-5th round though.  You need to understand that E/P offense does normally use 1featured back.  When is the last time NE took a RB high in the draft.

They took one in the first last year

[FeelingOnYouboty]

One of my favorite players in the Draft. Has some Kamara to him but no!

 

DE/OL/WR

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Because they have McCoy.  I will drip a load if they take one in the first.  I do believe they take one in the 3rd-5th round though.  You need to understand that E/P offense does normally use 1featured back.  When is the last time NE took a RB high in the draft.

Sony Michel, 8 months ago. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, FeelingOnYouboty said:

One of my favorite players in the Draft. Has some Kamara to him but no!

 

DE/OL/WR

I think that’s a good comp. 

[formerlyofCtown]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

And I agree that the OL is a much bigger problem. If they add 2 or 3 starters in FA (which is possible to likely IMO) it becomes less of a need. They’ll still draft a guy or 2 there but their hand won’t be forced. 

I really do wonder if they will make a play for Bell or Hunt if they cant get the OL they want in FA.  We would have one hell of a 1,2 punch or a punch and a kick if its Hunt.

[White Linen]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

You never know.

 

Ok.  You said don't be surprised - I most certainly would be. 

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Because they have McCoy.  I will drip a load if they take one in the first.  I do believe they take one in the 3rd-5th round though.  You need to understand that E/P offense does normally use 1featured back.  When is the last time NE took a RB high in the draft.

Really? Not even sure if he will be here one more year let alone 5, the life of the rookie’s contract 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

I really do wonder if they will make a play for Bell or Hunt if they cant get the OL they want in FA.  We would have one hell of a 1,2 punch or a punch and a kick if its Hunt.

I HATE that I am on the Kareem Hunt train but I think I’m there at this point. He won’t be expensive, is productive, young, versatile and presumably hungry. Hopefully he learned his lesson. I’m hoping that they sign him (ducks for cover)