Cool Detailed Analysis - Zay Jones

[SCBills]

I’m ok giving Zay a shot as a #3, behind Foster and FA/Draft/Williams.  

 

The only time I really remember him flashing the ability to take over was against the Jets before he got hurt.  

[Mat68]

I think he can still be very effective.  He seems to have good feel in finding open spaces in zones.  I see him still being a main contributor in the passing attack.  Not a #1 but productive player.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Slot receiver. Play him there and watch him flourish. 

[aceman_16]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because I was all about JuJu before that draft. I knew he was a stud.

Okay, I believe you when you say this. However, a majority of fans do the hindsight thing a ton. And  on another note....I was not a big fan of Jones trade up either. /cheers

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Slot receiver. Play him there and watch him flourish. 

 

Why do you think that, I mean he hasn’t flourished there yet.  He doesn’t get great separation, doesn’t have great hands, nor is he a crisp route runner.  Three things pretty much essential to excel out of the slot.  

 

Not sure why people think he would excel there.  He wasn’t getting open consistently in his first two years when he would line up in the slot as it is.  I agree it may be where he is best suited, but not convinced he is going to “flourish” in any role to be honest.  

 

I think right now he is more likely to be more of a Chris Hogan than a Julian Edelman IMO.  Just with worse hands.  Edelman is an example of someone flourishing, Hogan is an example of a solid contributor but not a guy you want to lean on in a big role.

 

I hope he proves me wrong, but I have yet to see him do any one part of his job consistently nor has he established any part of his game as something he excels at.  

[Shaw66]

Ctk -

I think you nailed it.  It simply makes no difference how a player got to the Bill's or whether the Bill's should have taken someone else.  Right now he is a Bill and his future is all that matters. 

 

I'm with those who think he will make team, but this a critical season for him. He must be better than he has been.

 

The OP stats are interesting.  He was an average to below average #2.  He needs to be a solid #2 or solid slot guy.

 

And much will depend on Allen and the scheme. 

[folz]

On ‎1‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 5:23 PM, TaskersGhost said:

 

5 WRs drafted after him have posted more yards, in all but one case significantly more yards than Jones.  

3 rookie WRs from this year's class posted more yards this season than he did.  They were drafted about where he went;  10 & 12 spots ahead and 4 behind.  

11 WRs from this year's class had more yards in their rookie seasons than Jones did.  Nearly half of them were round 3 and day-3 picks.  9 were drafted at positions later than his.  

 

 

But who was throwing the ball to those other guys and in what offense? That kind of makes a difference. Now, I'm not saying Zay is as good as say JuJu, but Zay had Tyrod, Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, and rookie Allen throwing to him in an offense that could barely muster 10 points until late last season, while JuJu had a Hall-of-Fame QB throwing to him, and an All-Pro WR on the opposite side of the field drawing double teams, both of whom had been in the same offensive system for a long time. You kind of have to take those things into account.

 

Yes, some rookie WRs come out of the gate hot and put up some nice numbers their rookie year, but there are a hell of a lot more guys who take a few years to develop. That is why there is the belief of the 3rd year being a potential break-out year for WRs. Zay is going into his third year. I'm curious to see if he can take that next step. 

 

Plus, I think the coaching change may be a very good thing for all of the WRs this year. Zay's rookie year, he had his college WR coach, who may not have really been ready to make the jump to the next level or simply didn't know the league that well yet. Plus he wasn't teaching Zay anything new, since he had been coaching him already for a couple of years. And then last year, it sounds like Robiskie might have been a bit disinterested, or not really grinding (per rumors). So, maybe with better coaching and QB play (Josh progressing), Zay breaks out this season.

 

Don't forget too that Zay and Josh didn't get a lot of practice time together until later in the year. One reason Foster may have come on was because he and Josh got to practice more together in camp, preseason, and early on in the season. This offseason, Josh is the guy and if Zay remains one of the top three WRs, they will hopefully be able to get on the same page, be more comfortable with each other, trust each other, etc.

 

Did we all expect more out of Zay to this point, yes. But let's let it play out before we label him a bust. Players do get better with experience.

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

But who was throwing the ball to those other guys and in what offense? That kind of makes a difference. Now, I'm not saying Zay is as good as say JuJu, but Zay had Tyrod, Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, and rookie Allen throwing to him in an offense that could barely muster 10 points until late last season, while JuJu had a Hall-of-Fame QB throwing to him, and an All-Pro WR on the opposite side of the field drawing double teams, both of whom had been in the same offensive system for a long time. You kind of have to take those things into account.

 

Yes, some rookie WRs come out of the gate hot and put up some nice numbers their rookie year, but there are a hell of a lot more guys who take a few years to develop. That is why there is the belief of the 3rd year being a potential break-out year for WRs. Zay is going into his third year. I'm curious to see if he can take that next step. 

 

Plus, I think the coaching change may be a very good thing for all of the WRs this year. Zay's rookie year, he had his college WR coach, who may not have really been ready to make the jump to the next level or simply didn't know the league that well yet. Plus he wasn't teaching Zay anything new, since he had been coaching him already for a couple of years. And then last year, it sounds like Robiskie might have been a bit disinterested, or not really grinding (per rumors). So, maybe with better coaching and QB play (Josh progressing), Zay breaks out this season.

 

Don't forget too that Zay and Josh didn't get a lot of practice time together until later in the year. One reason Foster may have come on was because he and Josh got to practice more together in camp, preseason, and early on in the season. This offseason, Josh is the guy and if Zay remains one of the top three WRs, they will hopefully be able to get on the same page, be more comfortable with each other, trust each other, etc.

 

Did we all expect more out of Zay to this point, yes. But let's let it play out before we label him a bust. Players do get better with experience.

 

All of this makes sense. Maybe Zay just won't be any good, or maybe as one or more of these other factors get a better, he will too.  

 

I expect Zay will improve and most of the improvement will be from Allen getting better. 

[BruceVilanch]

I'm still in the camp of not giving up on a WR who has shown marked improvement from year 1-2. 

[BeginnersMind]

2 hours ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I'm still in the camp of not giving up on a WR who has shown marked improvement from year 1-2. 

 

Cannot repeat enough how bad the Bills have been at QB the last two years. Not to mention other WRs or TEs who could share the load. This has been a wretched offense and maybe some of that is on him, but no more than his 1/11th when he’s on the field. No way I'm

giving up. The drops are gone from year one. This year has to be better. That simple. 

[racketmaster]

Zay Jones has been a disappointment so far and I would not count on him to be a significant member of the wr corps in 2019. If he takes a jump this year, then that's great but it would not be something that I would be counting on to happen. Personally, I find Duke Williams to be a more attractive option at this point because he was such a talented kid in college before he lost his head. Williams seems to have gotten himself back on track and I think the talent that made him the #1 JUCO prospect and have some big time performances in the SEC his first year is still there.

 

In 2 years, the best I can say is Jones seems to have a good understanding of the playbook. Talent wise he is not a burner and does not run away from anyone, he creates little to no separation on most routes he runs, he was dreadful catching the football in his first year and improved some in that area his second year but still not an above average catcher of the football, has shown little to no ability to make contested catches, and he has shown no real playmaking ability after the catch (shiftiness, breaking tackles or running away). He has a lot of work to do in those areas and I am not optimistic based on his skill set that he can make any significant improvement.

[SWATeam]

12 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because I was all about JuJu before that draft. I knew he was a stud.  So yeah, when they trade up for a guy who played against subpar competition because they hired his college coach, it’s a little frustrating.

 

IMo, Zay will never be close to the player as JuJu. It was a really bad decision.  That said, it’s a sunken cost and he could be a solid possession guy for us.

I mean this is much better than fighting his brother naked.  But much like DK Metcalf, this doesn’t really impress me.  Getting all jacked for a receiver isn’t necessarily great.  

Yep, Just like your boy St. Brown.  Can't win them all I guess...

[C.Biscuit97]

24 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Yep, Just like your boy St. Brown.  Can't win them all I guess...

Yup, St Brown over Ray Ray times a million. 

[oldmanfan]

With the mentality shown in this thread, it may be worth pointing out the group would have also given up on Eric Moulds.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

With the mentality shown in this thread, it may be worth pointing out the group would have also given up on Eric Moulds.

Stop.  Moulds was behind Andre Reed and Quinn Early.  Jones gets a ton of playing time because he has been surrounded by scrubs.

 

and I think most aren’t giving up on Jones.  But odds are he will never live up to his draft selection, especially because they traded up for him.

[Prickly Pete]

There are too many Zay Jones Excuse threads.

 

He is not a very good player, and I don't expect him to ever be anything better than "alright" in the future. 

Comparing him to Moulds is insulting to a near great Bill, who never really received his due attention. 

Edited March 6, 2019 by OJ Tom

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Stop.  Moulds was behind Andre Reed and Quinn Early.  Jones gets a ton of playing time because he has been surrounded by scrubs.

 

and I think most aren’t giving up on Jones.  But odds are he will never live up to his draft selection, especially because they traded up for him.

Stop.  There were a ton of people who thought Moulds was a bust, and they looked like idiots once he got his feet under him.  Jones and Allen started to show some good work together in the latter part of the season.  It would be dumb to give up on him right now.

[Bing Bong]

On 1/3/2019 at 12:49 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t agree with that.  I just don’t think he has any special skills that separate him from defensive backs.  

 

We badly need to hire some from the Steelers to scout wrs.

His special skills were supposed to be his damned hands as a possession WR and that's been his worst attribute haha. That's why I can at least assume he'll get his mojo back from college.. unless all those catches were college softballs from a weak armed QB (they were).

 

I've always said grab some Steelers scouting brass. Poach the heck out of them for whatever $$$ it takes. Even outside of WR. They've been the best in the league at drafting this past decade IMO.

[ctk232]

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Trust me, I have been wrong once in a while. ?. What made me upset about JuJu miss is I thought JuJu was special and had future #1 receiver talent.  Zay was a favor pick (the Bills did this with Prohel but it was a 7th).  Zay, at the absolute best, is a low end 2.  And fans used to kill Whaley for trade ups. While we did again!

 

fans say there is no talent for Allen to throw too but that’s because of bad decisions this regime made.  They need to come out of this draft with at least 2 good threats in the passing game.

Oh for sure - I'll forever be more wrong than right in my draft predictions. But I do remember being high on JuJu and my confusion when they announced the trade up and ultimate pick for Zay. While I do wonder what Beane and the current regime might have done differently here, I still can't evaluate Zay in the context of how the FO at the time felt about him - we can only really evaluate him based on his performance here regardless of expectations. I say that only because most of us knew then, and still believe, that Zay would never fit the stereotypical "WR1" role for myriad reasons. However, I do feel that he was and still is one of the best slot receivers drafted in that class (along with Kupp and Ross even though the jury is out on them both still) - and should Zay be given the chance to maximize the talent he does have in the appropriate role, I think our judgment of him will equally change.

 

All that said, while he hasn't been used in the pure slot role, given his lack of experience in other parts of the route tree, WR position roles, and general NFL experience, he has progressed well. Comparing him to JuJu will only create more frustration, and ironically, incomparably so; imagine if the tables were turned and JuJu spent his first year with TT and then his second with this squad. I wonder how that might have differed from having two years of only Ben, an established offensive roster around him, and an offensive scheme and coaching staff that had many years of consistency leading up to JuJu's rookie year. Zay's first year was under a first-time HC and staff, in his first two years he saw two OC's, five different QBs, and battled an injury through his first year. While these aren't excuses, they play important contextual pieces when we evaluate his progression thus far - and all things considered, he's trending up and I hope he continues to do so. Ultimately I think his ceiling could be as a stud slot/WR2 hybrid if he turns the next page, but time will tell.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So many takes. Here are mine: 

 

1) Moulds was a late bloomer, ok.  Exception not the rule, and he was a beast, (every other year) but not a gold standard. Marv also ALWAYS brought rooks on slow so he got few snaps early. I just think the comparison is 100% irrelevant in any direction 

 

2) Zay seems like a head case, but he caught 400 balls for over 4000 yds in college. He’s still got runway to improve. His deplorable rookie year was followed by a second year that was ok. Analytics show he’s a ~ top 40 NFL WR. He’s every bit the athlete OBJ and Diggs are. 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/

 

3) JuJu- he’s been impressive, but let’s see what happens when defenses aren’t scheming their whole secondary around containing AB and the Steelers running game. He also cost his team dearly down the stretch with that fumble. Is he AB2.0 or peerless price? TBD, but I’m not sure I’d pick him as Fantasy WR too early in next seasons draft. 

 

4) Pittsburgh’s formula for scouting and selecting WRs seems to be abnormally awesome. Maybe it’s Ben, maybe it’s something else. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 1/3/2019 at 1:29 PM, Magox said:

Were you frustrated with the Sammy trade up considering we could have had OBJ without doing so?

I was pissed and amazed that we didn't draft Khalil Mack. In that draft I was 100% sure if we traded down or stayed put that it would be a WR. If we traded up I was 100% sure it would be the no brainer pick of Mack. Oh well at least the people I hated most in the history of this franchise are gone in Brandon and Whaley. If we have our franchise QB in Allen after this season we will enjoy more then a few playoff appearances and hopefully a Super Bowl. 

 

I have no faith in Zay Jones being anything more than 4th or 5th on the depth chart. I hope if Jones makes the team that he works very hard on his special teams.

[Ronin]

On 3/6/2019 at 12:03 AM, folz said:

 

But who was throwing the ball to those other guys and in what offense? That kind of makes a difference. Now, I'm not saying Zay is as good as say JuJu, but Zay had Tyrod, Peterman, Anderson, Barkley, and rookie Allen throwing to him in an offense that could barely muster 10 points until late last season, while JuJu had a Hall-of-Fame QB throwing to him, and an All-Pro WR on the opposite side of the field drawing double teams, both of whom had been in the same offensive system for a long time. You kind of have to take those things into account.

 

Yes, some rookie WRs come out of the gate hot and put up some nice numbers their rookie year, but there are a hell of a lot more guys who take a few years to develop. That is why there is the belief of the 3rd year being a potential break-out year for WRs. Zay is going into his third year. I'm curious to see if he can take that next step. 

 

Plus, I think the coaching change may be a very good thing for all of the WRs this year. Zay's rookie year, he had his college WR coach, who may not have really been ready to make the jump to the next level or simply didn't know the league that well yet. Plus he wasn't teaching Zay anything new, since he had been coaching him already for a couple of years. And then last year, it sounds like Robiskie might have been a bit disinterested, or not really grinding (per rumors). So, maybe with better coaching and QB play (Josh progressing), Zay breaks out this season.

 

Don't forget too that Zay and Josh didn't get a lot of practice time together until later in the year. One reason Foster may have come on was because he and Josh got to practice more together in camp, preseason, and early on in the season. This offseason, Josh is the guy and if Zay remains one of the top three WRs, they will hopefully be able to get on the same page, be more comfortable with each other, trust each other, etc.

 

Did we all expect more out of Zay to this point, yes. But let's let it play out before we label him a bust. Players do get better with experience.

 

 

The WR that you're defending was ranked 210 (out of 212) in catch % in 2017. 

 

In 2018 he ranked a pathetic 176th (out of 202) in catch % in 2018.  

 

He's posted 9 TDs in the two seasons.   5 of those TDs were in losses.  3 of the other 4, including 2 in that last Miami game last season when the entire team was in beast mode, were essentially in routs.  The only TD that he scored that proved to be significant and directly contributed to a win was in the KC game last season.  

 

His only two decent games were blowout wins against the Jets and Fins, and the way we were playing in both of those games we didn't need him.  Two of his three TDs were when the games were long over and the other one of two were both in that Fins game where Allen, in really his only great game, was a one-man wrecking crew.  

 

If he (Jones) were on any other team no one here would be defending him at all.  

 

He's a "dime-a-dozen" WR if even that.  

Edited March 8, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Spiderweb]

On 1/3/2019 at 1:46 PM, yungmack said:

Zay seems to lack "football intelligence." 

And you base that on what?