Josh Allen's progress

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, Looper said:

 

Spot on - how is another game of NFL experience a step back ? 

Because things he had done well last week, he did worse this week...he didn’t build upon last weeks progress by putting 2 solid games together in a row

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

Maybe you can go buy season tickets to the Browns for next year, that way you can cheer Tyrods clipboard holding skills from closer up.

 

I don’t hate ex Bills players like you do. Get lost fake fan. 

Edited December 24, 2018 by nedboy7

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If this is how they keep that stat then it's a completely worthless stat.  If the ONLY definition of a drop is a chest high ball that goes off the hands then this is not the NFL but HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL.  Guys like Rodak fall in love with their metrics while completely ignoring what goes on in the game. 

 

So out of curiosity what would you call the Foster sun blinding?  Sure it's not a classic drop but come on.  Or how is the pass that went right through the hands of Thomas at the goal line NOT a drop?  This is why I don't trust analytics in football.  They suck in accurately describing what's going on. 

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

If this is how they keep that stat then it's a completely worthless stat.  If the ONLY definition of a drop is a chest high ball that goes off the hands then this is not the NFL but HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL.  Guys like Rodak fall in love with their metrics while completely ignoring what goes on in the game. 

 

So out of curiosity what would you call the Foster sun blinding?  Sure it's not a classic drop but come on.  Or how is the pass that went right through the hands of Thomas at the goal line NOT a drop?  This is why I don't trust analytics in football.  They suck in accurately describing what's going on. 

 

These are not his stats.  Foster never touched the ball and I don't believe Thomas did either.  

 

Both were excellent throws by Allen.

Edited December 24, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

These are not his stats.  Foster never touched the ball and I don't believe THomas did either.  

I get that but by using them he's telling me that he buys into them. 

 

Look the stat we're interested in seeing IMO are how many catchable balls are not being caught.  Sure dropping the ball is the easiest part of that to define but yesterday we saw two examples of VERY catchable balls not being caught for TD's.  Throw in Fosters misplay at the goal line on the 4th & 4 throw and we're talking about 3 potential TD's being left on the field.

 

But my biggest problem with a lot of these stats are that they don't do a good job of capturing what is happening on the field.  It's like praising a RB for having a 5 YPC average in a game where he carried the ball 16 times for 80 years with one of the plays being an 80 yard run.  I just don't think Football lends itself to analytics in the same way that baseball does. 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Not a short yardage check down offence. But when all the defenders drop back into deeper coverage he has to make them pay and hit the RB in the flat to keep them honest.

 

I agree, I would like to see that incorporated into the offense more. A run game will keep defenses honest too. Right now it almost looks like Allen is being coached to push the ball down the field. I don't always even see a check down option. I wonder if they are telling him to throw the ball down field and make it a learning experience. Wins don't matter at this point. The development of Josh Allen is way more important and they might be okay with him making mistakes if he is learning the game. I imagine it is easier to insert more check downs next year than teach the QB how to make big plays.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

I get that but by using them he's telling me that he buys into them. 

 

Look the stat we're interested in seeing IMO are how many catchable balls are not being caught.  Sure dropping the ball is the easiest part of that to define but yesterday we saw two examples of VERY catchable balls not being caught for TD's.  Throw in Fosters misplay at the goal line on the 4th & 4 throw and we're talking about 3 potential TD's being left on the field.

 

But my biggest problem with a lot of these stats are that they don't do a good job of capturing what is happening on the field.  It's like praising a RB for having a 5 YPC average in a game where he carried the ball 16 times for 80 years with one of the plays being an 80 yard run.  I just don't think Football lends itself to analytics in the same way that baseball does. 

 

That was not a good throw and Allen took a risk by checking to that play without delivering a good pass.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

It would be a great time to re-examine Allen’s Scouting Reports that were being released Pre-Draft.  Just to see what the evaluators were seeing as his Pros and Cons coming into the league agaisnt where he is after his first season.

 

Didn't you start the thread about how you'd like Allen to stay in the pocket and throw the ball even if it leads to mistakes? It looks like that's exactly what he's been doing the past 2 games.

 

The pre-draft report on Allen was that it would take a year or two for him to develop because of how raw he was. If he doesn't progress from his current level he will not be a franchise QB, to state the obvious. I don't think his flaws are unfixable. Accuracy is not nearly as bad as I expected. Mobility and arm strength are even better than I expected. My biggest concern is his ability to read defenses but that's the kind of thing that often fixes itself over time with experience. If he can learn to make the right throw at the right time I think he will be great even if his accuracy never improves from where it is now.

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

One recorded drop yesterday?  No way

 

We can go ahead and stop posting drop stats. I've had issues with the way they're recorded for years. Incompletions that any reasonable person would call a drop are not considered drops by the statistics. Watch other games and you won't see anything approaching the level of incompetency you get from our receivers. I don't need an ESPN stats intern to tell me otherwise.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Foster never touched the ball and I don't believe Thomas did either.  

 

Foster touched the ball but I can understand not calling that one a drop. This one however is inexcusable:

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not true at all. I have been objective every time he has pulled on a Bills jersey and will continue to be. Josh was not good at all yesterday. He was very good indeed last week. 

 

That is normal for rookie Quarterbacks. But neither of those assessments if his performances have anything to do with my pre-draft assessment. 

 

Sorry Bill, I think you misunderstood what I was saying.  I didn’t mean anything negative or that you were negatively biased towards him, just meant you’re going to more objective on your critiques rather than heavier on the optimism.  OP was talking about how he sees him more favorably than you.  So was pointing out, that the difference was he was looking from more optimism glasses while you are more grounded in objectively analyzing him week to week.  And certainly a very fair and reasonable place to be too.

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, dickleyjones said:

homer posts? you said there were "he doesn't need to improve" posts. but why stay on topic when you can insult instead.

 

 

There are plenty of posts that assume he's going to drastically improve. That's pretty much the same thing.

 

He needs to improve and he will isn't much different than he doesn't need to improve.

[JoPar_v2]

5 hours ago, dickleyjones said:

homer posts? you said there were "he doesn't need to improve" posts. but why stay on topic when you can insult instead.

 

 

 

There are plenty of posters here that defend the guy to the death. Which is a bit weird when he has shown flashes but hasn’t really proven anything yet. Again, if you haven’t seen or acknowledged these idiots you’re either oblivious or one of them. No time for homers and/or retards.

[Seventeen]

39 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

There are plenty of posters here that defend the guy to the death. Which is a bit weird when he has shown flashes but hasn’t really proven anything yet. Again, if you haven’t seen or acknowledged these idiots you’re either oblivious or one of them. No time for homers and/or retards.

 

I defend him because he's a rookie playing on a POS team. Go look up how some of the greats did in their first season. No one is saying he doesn't need to improve. 

[oldmanfan]

A rookie QB losing to the Pats when on the road, against the genius Belichick, is neither alarming nor any predictor of a young QBs future.

[26CornerBlitz]

Howard Simon:

 

Allen had his usual handful of off-target throws and, again, showed a refusal, at times, to take what the defense is giving him by throwing a check down pass. Former NFL coach Bruce Arians, who was working the telecast for CBS, said Allen needs to learn to play the game from the line of scrimmage to 10 yards. Arians said Allen loves to play 30-to-50 yards, but he needs to get the ball out faster and just get completions. Arians said he would tell Allen that not every play can be a 25-yard chunk pass.

[billsfan1959]

27 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Howard Simon:

 

Allen had his usual handful of off-target throws and, again, showed a refusal, at times, to take what the defense is giving him by throwing a check down pass. Former NFL coach Bruce Arians, who was working the telecast for CBS, said Allen needs to learn to play the game from the line of scrimmage to 10 yards. Arians said Allen loves to play 30-to-50 yards, but he needs to get the ball out faster and just get completions. Arians said he would tell Allen that not every play can be a 25-yard chunk pass.

He does need to do a better job, at times, of taking what is there and I believe that will come with more experience. However, I love that he wants that 30-50 yard chunk first - and I hope he never loses that.

[Magox]

19 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Foster touched the ball but I can understand not calling that one a drop. This one however is inexcusable:

 

 

Foster definitely touched the ball but it would have been a tough catch to make, however Foster did slightly mistimed his jump and he could have made the catch.  I wont blame him for it because it would have been a phenomenal catch.  The ball placement was about a foot or two too much to the inside.

 

The Logan play should have been caught and most decent TE's will make that play 8 out of 10 opportunities.

[Kemp]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Didn't you start the thread about how you'd like Allen to stay in the pocket and throw the ball even if it leads to mistakes? It looks like that's exactly what he's been doing the past 2 games.

 

The pre-draft report on Allen was that it would take a year or two for him to develop because of how raw he was. If he doesn't progress from his current level he will not be a franchise QB, to state the obvious. I don't think his flaws are unfixable. Accuracy is not nearly as bad as I expected. Mobility and arm strength are even better than I expected. My biggest concern is his ability to read defenses but that's the kind of thing that often fixes itself over time with experience. If he can learn to make the right throw at the right time I think he will be great even if his accuracy never improves from where it is now.

 

We can go ahead and stop posting drop stats. I've had issues with the way they're recorded for years. Incompletions that any reasonable person would call a drop are not considered drops by the statistics. Watch other games and you won't see anything approaching the level of incompetency you get from our receivers. I don't need an ESPN stats intern to tell me otherwise.

 

Who is a comparable to Allen in terms of "raw" in college that went on to a great NFL career?

 

Doesn't "raw" mean not very good?

[Ittakestime]

2 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Who is a comparable to Allen in terms of "raw" in college that went on to a great NFL career?

 

Doesn't "raw" mean not very good?

 

Great NFL career?  There has been zero QBs with that god awful college stats that have become great 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Ittakestime said:

 

Great NFL career?  There has been zero QBs with that god awful college stats that have become great 

Brett Favre and Matt Ryan say hello....

[LSHMEAB]

35 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Brett Favre and Matt Ryan say hello....

Matt Ryan had a prolific yet turnover prone senior season. 4000 yards and 31 TD's. JA never did that.

 

Brett Favre however, SUCKED in college. Amazing that the Falcons would make such a great move taking him in the 2nd round and then make an equally horrific move trading said player away.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Matt Ryan had a prolific yet turnover prone senior season. 4000 yards and 31 TD's. JA never did that.

 

Brett Favre however, SUCKED in college. Amazing that the Falcons would make such a great move taking him in the 2nd round and then make an equally horrific move trading said player away.

Matt Ryan threw the ball 654 times for his 4000+ yds. The most attempts Josh Allen had in a season was 373 (281 less attempts and still 3000+ yds). In that season, he had a higher Y/A,  AY/A, TD to Attempt ratio (only 3 less TDs on 281 less attempts), and QB rating than Ryan had in his 4000+yds year. Not to mention that was Ryan's third full season of college ball. 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

Matt Ryan threw the ball 654 times for his 4000+ yds. The most attempts Josh Allen had in a season was 373 (281 less attempts and still 3000+ yds). In that season, he had a higher Y/A,  AY/A, TD to Attempt ratio (only 3 less TDs on 281 less attempts), and QB rating than Ryan had in his 4000+yds year. Not to mention that was Ryan's third full season of college ball. 

And Ryan was playing in the ACC as opposed to the MW, but never mind that.

 

QB's that aren't prolific in college do not have a good track record in the NFL. That's a fact. Didn't create the fact. Didn't cherrypick info. Just stating a very basic fact. Hopefully Allen bucks the trend.

 

Interesting you went into defensive mode as opposed to noting that Favre indeed sucked at Southern Miss. Why not cling to the positive anomaly? There's always a chance.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

And Ryan was playing in the ACC as opposed to the MW, but never mind that.

 

QB's that aren't prolific in college do not have a good track record in the NFL. That's a fact. Didn't create the fact. Didn't cherrypick info. Just stating a very basic fact. Hopefully Allen bucks the trend.

 

Interesting you went into defensive mode as opposed to noting that Favre indeed sucked at Southern Miss. Why not cling to the positive anomaly? There's always a chance.

What level of success any QB in the history of the NFL achieved has absolutely no relevance to how successful Josh Allen will or will not be. Zero.

 

My post regarding Ryan and Favre were in response to a poster saying no QB ever was successful in the NFL that had similar college stats to Josh Allen. Wrong.

[Socal-805]

 

Josh Allen is not the answer.

 

Lowest rated QB in league with over 100 attempts.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=PASSING&d-447263-p=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Socal-805 said:

 

Josh Allen is not the answer.

 

Lowest rated QB in league with over 100 attempts.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&statisticCategory=PASSING&d-447263-p=2&conference=null&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING

 

It's far too early for this kind of final declaration on Allen.  Linking his rookie stats with no context is the worst kind of boxscore scouting. 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Kemp said:

Who is a comparable to Allen in terms of "raw" in college that went on to a great NFL career?

 

It's early but Mahomes is the obvious answer. In college he had poor footwork and poor decision making, and he had no experience in a pro system. He was developed for a full season and now looks like a different player.

 

Not saying Allen will end up putting up Mahomes's numbers next year but yes raw QBs can develop with time. Allen has already made progress since Wyoming. They're bringing him along slowly, as they should.

[Socal-805]

12 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It's far too early for this kind of final declaration on Allen.  Linking his rookie stats with no context is the worst kind of boxscore scouting. 

 

 

NO,  Not true.

 

The accuracy was a huge issue in college, and continues to be.  This was a KNOWN issue.  Don't pretend it wasn't.

 

Don;t throw/play the "context" card and "stats" card at this.  

 

1 year in he has the SAME exact problems.

 

 

[dickleyjones]

On 12/24/2018 at 2:10 PM, LSHMEAB said:

There are plenty of posts that assume he's going to drastically improve. That's pretty much the same thing.

 

He needs to improve and he will isn't much different than he doesn't need to improve.

with logic like that, how could i disagree? true = false, hurray!  

21 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

 

There are plenty of posters here that defend the guy to the death. Which is a bit weird when he has shown flashes but hasn’t really proven anything yet. Again, if you haven’t seen or acknowledged these idiots you’re either oblivious or one of them. No time for homers and/or retards.

your hyperbole and assumptions do not serve your argument well.

 

i'm talking about your "retarded" post. the one where you said posters say allen does not need to improve.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Socal-805 said:

NO,  Not true.

 

The accuracy was a huge issue in college, and continues to be.  This was a KNOWN issue.  Don't pretend it wasn't.

 

Don;t throw/play the "context" card and "stats" card at this.  

 

1 year in he has the SAME exact problems.

 

You're simply ignoring the improvement he's shown from Wyoming not that he doesn't have things to work on.  He like all rookie QBs have a learning curve, but he has flashed the ability to be a good NFL QB who can succeed with a good supporting cast.

[LSHMEAB]

5 hours ago, Magox said:

Foster definitely touched the ball but it would have been a tough catch to make, however Foster did slightly mistimed his jump and he could have made the catch.  I wont blame him for it because it would have been a phenomenal catch.  The ball placement was about a foot or two too much to the inside.

 

The Logan play should have been caught and most decent TE's will make that play 8 out of 10 opportunities.

Completely disagree that a decent TE makes that catch 8/10 times. Thomas could have made the play, but it would have been a great catch. Not a highlight reel catch, but a great one.

 

Josh's arm strength is a definite plus but it also puts receivers in tough positions on occasion. This was one of those times. The pic everyone keeps displaying gives a distorted view of the play. Ball was coming at Thomas HOT and he had just made his move towards it. A TOP TE probably makes that catch 50 percent of the time. 

[Socal-805]

14 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You're simply ignoring the improvement he's shown from Wyoming not that he doesn't have things to work on.  He like all rookie QBs have a learning curve, but he has flashed the ability to be a good NFL QB who can succeed with a good supporting cast.

 

 

He has one "1" game this year with more TDs than INTs.  When is he going to begin completing passes?  I'm asking...

 

He's flashed the ability to run, that's about it.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Socal-805 said:

He has one "1" game this year with more TDs than INTs.  When is he going to begin completing passes?  I'm asking...

 

He's flashed the ability to run, that's about it.

 

You're still talking stats that only tell you so much while I'm talking about pre and post snap reading of defenses, throwing with timing, anticipation, and accuracy within the structure of play design.  He also does well when plays break down to create with his arm and legs.  He's obviously not consistent as one might expect and he also needs a better OL and receiving corps to maximize his ability. 

 

You should take a look at this video that was posted earlier if you haven't already done so. 

[Socal-805]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You're still talking stats that only tell you so much while I'm talking about pre and post snap reading of defenses, throwing with timing, anticipation, and accuracy within the structure of play design.  He also does well when plays break down to create with his arm and legs.  He's obviously not consistent as one might expect and he also needs a better OL and receiving corps to maximize his ability. 

 

I've seen some All-22 video breakdown of him exhibiting some of those attributes: true.

[Kemp]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's early but Mahomes is the obvious answer. In college he had poor footwork and poor decision making, and he had no experience in a pro system. He was developed for a full season and now looks like a different player.

 

Not saying Allen will end up putting up Mahomes's numbers next year but yes raw QBs can develop with time. Allen has already made progress since Wyoming. They're bringing him along slowly, as they should.

 

You can't seriously be comparing Allen and Mahomes in college.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/patrick-mahomes-1.html

 

You were kidding, right?

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

And Ryan was playing in the ACC as opposed to the MW, but never mind that.

 

QB's that aren't prolific in college do not have a good track record in the NFL. That's a fact. Didn't create the fact. Didn't cherrypick info. Just stating a very basic fact. Hopefully Allen bucks the trend.

 

Interesting you went into defensive mode as opposed to noting that Favre indeed sucked at Southern Miss. Why not cling to the positive anomaly? There's always a chance.

I feel like there are enough outliers for josh Allen that there is a very good chance he becomes a good qb

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Completely disagree that a decent TE makes that catch 8/10 times. Thomas could have made the play, but it would have been a great catch. Not a highlight reel catch, but a great one.

 

Josh's arm strength is a definite plus but it also puts receivers in tough positions on occasion. This was one of those times. The pic everyone keeps displaying gives a distorted view of the play. Ball was coming at Thomas HOT and he had just made his move towards it. A TOP TE probably makes that catch 50 percent of the time. 

Has anyone make a great play for Allen this year?  Has Logan Thomas ever made a great catch for the Bills?  You watch any of the high powered offenses and there are two, three great plays made by the skill guys for the qb each and every week.

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, DuckyBoys said:

Has anyone make a great play for Allen this year?  Has Logan Thomas ever made a great catch for the Bills?  You watch any of the high powered offenses and there are two, three great plays made by the skill guys for the qb each and every week.

We don't have a single elite or even above average receiver just like we didn't in 2017. It's a problem. I was specifically referencing the Logan Thomas play in the Pats game.

 

Not sure anyone would ever confuse Logan Thomas with a great tight end.