Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread

[BeginnersMind]

The buzzword among the left is “free” this cycle. Biden would be smart to play the middle. That will lure the center, which includes the states where Trump is weakest. 

 

The Dems need to realize this election isn’t about winning socialist CA. It’s about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pa, and Ohio. Biden could do that. Warren, Harris, not so much. 

 

I still cant wrap my mind around Mayor Pete and if he can do the improbable. 

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm fortunate enough to be completely done with student loans, and yeah, forgiveness would be a bit of a slap in the face. It's also a major issue that was forced on a lot of these people by the previous generation. Go to college or you'll be a failure, etc. I don't think the debt should be erased, that's just way too much. But I do think it would help everyone tremendously if the interest on the loans was capped, or frozen altogether.

 

I don't know if it would work or not, but a lot of people my age are voting for socialists and looking for handouts because of the financial position they have been put in by the lies, predatory loans, and economy they were given. Throughout the recession people were graduating with high five figure to six figure debt (from a school they were told they had to go to in order to be successful), not getting jobs in their field, looking at an upside-down housing market with very little opportunity, and the interest the student loans were gaining was higher than what they could pay down in a month. Then they get blamed for moving back in with their parents. I do think capping or freezing the interest on these loans would actually impact the voting positions of a good portion of America. jmo.

The main problem is public and private college costs have far outpaced wages and inflation.  Forgiving that much student debt doesn't address that problem.  It sends a terrible message to future students that you can spend and borrow carelessly and the government will bail you out.  There are better alternatives that more people can get behind.

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

The main problem is public and private college costs have far outpaced wages and inflation.  Forgiving that much student debt doesn't address that problem.  It sends a terrible message to future students that you can spend and borrow carelessly and the government will bail you out.  There are better alternatives that more people can get behind.

Student loans need to be more difficult to attain. No loans for majors that don't pay well enough to allow repayment of loan. The only way to blunt the liberal schools bloated spending is to starve them.

[Buffalo_Gal]

An NH qualifying poll (read the second tweet for more information)... Bernie is their guy. 

Long view? Lizzie is done, Biden isn't smelling so great, some 15-minute wonder is polling well at the moment, and everyone else is an afterthought. If these numbers hold (thread has more information),  the paper ballot would be a paperback. 

(thread)
 

 

[Koko78]

Isaac Dovere was on the radio today talking about campaigns. He said that Spartacus Booker wasn't worried about his poor polling because they weren't campaigning to "win polls in April, 2019". They were taking a long-term strategy to win.

 

I give it 6 months before he tries to manufacture something so he play the race card to improve his abysmal polling and fundraising. I'm guessing a Jussie Smolette-type attack/lynching or a series of Mayor Pete-style conveniently-timed "white supremacist" hecklers in MAGA hats that Booker just happens to have a prepared sound-byte retorts for.

[snafu]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

An NH qualifying poll (read the second tweet for more information)... Bernie is their guy. 

Long view? Lizzie is done, Biden isn't smelling so great, some 15-minute wonder is polling well at the moment, and everyone else is an afterthought. If these numbers hold (thread has more information),  the paper ballot would be a paperback. 

(thread)
 

 

 

Who the hell is Wayne Messam?

Is that a joke name to see if anyone is paying attention?

 

 

[keepthefaith]

16 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Who the hell is Wayne Messam?

Is that a joke name to see if anyone is paying attention?

 

 

 

One of the 1 percenters.  Swallwell 1%, hysterical.  Trump will label them and refer to them as such for the next 6+ years.   

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Student loans need to be more difficult to attain. No loans for majors that don't pay well enough to allow repayment of loan. The only way to blunt the liberal schools bloated spending is to starve them.

It's not as much the major as the low threshold to get and maintain federal student loans.  You don't need a cosigner like you do for private loans.  High school GPA isn't considered which is the number one indicator of college graduation rates.  As far as maintanence, all you need to do is maintain a 2.0 GPA to continue receiving your loan.  Raise that to at least 2.5.  Bankruptcy laws need to change that including being able to discharge private student loans forcing lenders to be much more selective in handing out loans.  High schools need to do a better job of preparing students as well.

[Nanker]

16 hours ago, B-Man said:

Pete Buttigieg’s campaign website looks exactly like the movie poster for ‘The 40-Year-Old Virgin’

 

 

.?

Is it just me? A gay guy with a name of Butt I gig, or Butt I gag?

“A fresh start for America?”

 

[/dev/null]

18 hours ago, B-Man said:

Pete Buttigieg’s campaign website looks exactly like the movie poster for ‘The 40-Year-Old Virgin’

 

 

.?

 

That picture made me think of the poster for:

 

 

 

[BeginnersMind]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

An NH qualifying poll (read the second tweet for more information)... Bernie is their guy. 

Long view? Lizzie is done, Biden isn't smelling so great, some 15-minute wonder is polling well at the moment, and everyone else is an afterthought. If these numbers hold (thread has more information),  the paper ballot would be a paperback. 

(thread)
 

 

 

Rubio was the big leader at this point in 2015, by comparison. And Jeb had $100 million raised and was just getting going in what looked like would be an extremely strong bid to be our next president. 

 

But Bernie should be leading by a wide margin in his back yard. If he lost NH, he’d be in big trouble. 

 

Bernie, Biden, and the guy who’s stolen all the wannabe contenders Mayor Pete...seem to be the real contenders at the moment. 

 

Bernie should have the inside track on the nomination but Biden would do much better against Trump. No idea what Mayor Pete could do. He’s a complete wildcard, and I thank him for that. Biden and Bernie are shows I’ve seen before. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by BeginnersMind

[/dev/null]

https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/23/the-democratic-presidential-primary-is-an-arms-race-in-crazy/

[Orlando Tim]

If my goal is to get Trump reelected then i want Bernie or Biden- they have long track records with some problems. The one who scares me is actually Tulsi Gabbard- young pretty i think three versions of minorities without a track record who is so far pretty reasonable. People will vote simply for woman and vote against trump.

[snafu]

8 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

 

One of the 1 percenters.  Swallwell 1%, hysterical.  Trump will label them and refer to them as such for the next 6+ years.   

 

Not only that, Messum's 1% is bigger than Swalwell's 1%. 

 

 

[row_33]

I'd say Bill Clinton hit 48 of 50 free throws

 

Obama 46 of 50

 

not a soul out there right now who can hit 5 of 50 from the line

 

how does one get this urge to go out in public and demand respect when they simply suck

 

 

[BeginnersMind]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If my goal is to get Trump reelected then i want Bernie or Biden- they have long track records with some problems. The one who scares me is actually Tulsi Gabbard- young pretty i think three versions of minorities without a track record who is so far pretty reasonable. People will vote simply for woman and vote against trump.

 

Trump must win the same way he won last time. His formula hasn’t changed. If a Dem can win only a few of PA, OH, MI, and WI...Dems win. Florida also always possible. 

 

Biden plays well in those states vs Trump, but I don’t think he can win the primary. He’s too centrist. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by BeginnersMind

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 hours ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Rubio was the big leader at this point in 2015, by comparison. And Jeb had $100 million raised and was just getting going in what looked like would be an extremely strong bid to be our next president. 

 

But Bernie should be leading by a wide margin in his back yard. If he lost NH, he’d be in big trouble. 

 

Bernie, Biden, and the guy who’s stolen all the wannabe contenders Mayor Pete...seem to be the real contenders at the moment. 

 

Bernie should have the inside track on the nomination but Biden would do much better against Trump. No idea what Mayor Pete could do. He’s a complete wildcard, and I thank him for that. Biden and Bernie are shows I’ve seen before. 

 

For all the talk of diversity, it is gonna be two old white guys in Bernie and Biden. I'd say two rich, old white guys, but only Bernie, the socialist,  is rich. Joey-B left the graft for his kids so he's one step removed.

[BeginnersMind]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

For all the talk of diversity, it is gonna be two old white guys in Bernie and Biden. I'd say two rich, old white guys, but only Bernie, the socialist,  is rich. Joey-B left the graft for his kids so he's one step removed.

 

Bernie is north of 70 with a net worth of 2M. Not exactly swimming in luxury. Not poor either. 

 

It does look like it will be white guys again. None of the women can get traction this time around. Same with the people of color. 

 

For Dems with an eye towards actually beating Trump, that’s fine. But they need someone who can win the rust belt states. The next nominee will not make Clinton’s error there. 

 

The Dems are trying to make a different mistake this time in sending out an avowed socialist to middle America. If that happens, I hope it fails miserably, as I expect it will. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by BeginnersMind

[Buffalo_Gal]

16 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Trump must win the same way he won last time. His formula hasn’t changed. If a Dem can win only a few of PA, OH, MI, and WI...Dems win. Florida also always possible. 

 

Biden plays well in those states vs Trump, but I don’t think he can win the primary. He’s too centrist. 

The Ds are not winning Ohio in 2020. Many pages back, I posted an article where one of their biggest super PACs pulled all money as Ohio was not in play (if those were not the exact words, they are close). Inferred from that? The internals show Ohio is a lost-cause this round.  

Now with the shenanigans that have gone on in PA since the last election,  PA for the Ds wouldn't shock me. On the other hand, if it is Bernie, I don't see PA being in play for the Ds even with shenanigans.

Florida is an intriguing state. The first Trump sign I ever saw was over the bridge from our condo in an affluent area in northeast Florida. Now, that area is different in that much of it still "southern Georgia" even though it is almost two hours to the state line. Going further down the state (specifically to southeast Florida) is another interesting zone - a lot of money, NYC Jews, and gays. Heck, my cousin and his husband were still sneering at Trump the last time we had dinner with both of them (a few months ago), although when I saw him (my cousin) last week he was a little less snarky about Trump. And that matters. Because if southeast Florida gay-men are not going to be up in arms to vote against Trump, all bets are off. The Cubans in the Miami area are generally not Democrats.  Orlando is the Democrats best bet in Florida. Lots of transplants, lots of people.

Like many, I think things look good for President Trump at the moment. Do I think he's a shoo-in? Nope.  You never know what will happen in the next 18 months (or so). But as of today? I like his odds.

[BeginnersMind]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

The Ds are not winning Ohio in 2020. Many pages back, I posted an article where one of their biggest super PACs pulled all money as Ohio was not in play (if those were not the exact words, they are close). Inferred from that? The internals show Ohio is a lost-cause this round.  

Now with the shenanigans that have gone on in PA since the last election,  PA for the Ds wouldn't shock me. On the other hand, if it is Bernie, I don't see PA being in play for the Ds even with shenanigans.

Florida is an intriguing state. The first Trump sign I ever saw was over the bridge from our condo in an affluent area in northeast Florida. Now, that area is different in that much of it still "southern Georgia" even though it is almost two hours to the state line. Going further down the state (specifically to southeast Florida) is another interesting zone - a lot of money, NYC Jews, and gays. Heck, my cousin and his husband were still sneering at Trump the last time we had dinner with both of them (a few months ago), although when I saw him (my cousin) last week he was a little less snarky about Trump. And that matters. Because if southeast Florida gay-men are not going to be up in arms to vote against Trump, all bets are off. The Cubans in the Miami area are generally not Democrats.  Orlando is the Democrats best bet in Florida. Lots of transplants, lots of people.

Like many, I think things look good for President Trump at the moment. Do I think he's a shoo-in? Nope.  You never know what will happen in the next 18 months (or so). But as of today? I like his odds.

 

My point is that Trump has more or less one way to win and that is to repeat his run of states in the middle. He largely won those because Hillary, against the advice of even her husband who knows a thing or two, arrogantly took them for granted. 

 

The Dems won’t do that this time. They will fight harder for those. Whether they have a candidate who can win them is the real story. I agree with you that Sanders is not that guy. Biden, however, could be. 

 

And I keep saying it because I am still in disbelief, but who knows if Mayor Pete is for real and what he might do. I am shocked that he’s even in the conversation. If the Dems want to go for a new face, he’s that. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If my goal is to get Trump reelected then i want Bernie or Biden- they have long track records with some problems. The one who scares me is actually Tulsi Gabbard- young pretty i think three versions of minorities without a track record who is so far pretty reasonable. People will vote simply for woman and vote against trump.

She seems very reasonable and rational. That means she is a no-go this cycle. ?‍♂️

[row_33]

if the economy continues to go well Trump in a landslide

 

or he avoids completely cratering to the point where he is rebuffed by all the voters....

 

[BeginnersMind]

2 minutes ago, row_33 said:

if the economy continues to go well Trump in a landslide

 

or he avoids completely cratering to the point where he is rebuffed by all the voters....

 

 

This is the big win for him. What he’s on the verge of doing with China is simply awesome. It’s not getting as much coverage as it should but it’s bigger than any of the rest of what he’s been up to and it will have longer term positive effects on the economy than anything an American president has done since NAFTA. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She seems very reasonable and rational. That means she is a no-go this cycle. ?‍♂️

I think Tulsi and Andrew Yang are the most viable candidates to stand a chance against Trump, though as has been mentioned it's a long shot if the economy continues. But neither is really getting any support from the party. They'd rather have people who back the Green New Deal, or Open Borders, or Healthcare for All, or Wipe out student debt, or Eliminate ICE, or repeal the 2nd Amendment. It almost feels like a legitimate 3rd party is going to form from the results of 2020.

[IDBillzFan]

3 hours ago, BeginnersMind said:

Bernie, Biden, and the guy who’s stolen all the wannabe contenders Mayor Pete...seem to be the real contenders at the moment. 

 

Mayor Pete does himself no favors going after Pence. In spite of the way the left lies to sue Christians into a stereotype, genuine Christians have open arms for homosexuals. 

 

Yeah, I get it. The Bible is strict about gay marriage, but other than the hard-core evangelists who take the word of God out of context or are considered legalistic, Christians would vote for a homosexual. And trying to rile the LGBTQ base by going after Pence, a man who has always said nice things about Pete, is bad advice.

 

And by LGBTQ, I don't mean this...

 

[BeginnersMind]

12 minutes ago, LABillzFan said:

 

Mayor Pete does himself no favors going after Pence. In spite of the way the left lies to sue Christians into a stereotype, genuine Christians have open arms for homosexuals. 

 

Yeah, I get it. The Bible is strict about gay marriage, but other than the hard-core evangelists who take the word of God out of context or are considered legalistic, Christians would vote for a homosexual. And trying to rile the LGBTQ base by going after Pence, a man who has always said nice things about Pete, is bad advice.

 

And by LGBTQ, I don't mean this...

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

[B-Man]

[row_33]

14 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

they have thrown their ring into the hat....

 

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

 

Or getting enough states to commit to allocating their electoral votes according to the results in other states.  

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. 

 

Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this:

 

 

The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL). 

Not so sure how I understand the bolded in blue above. Gerrymandering affects the different congressional districts, not the statewide vote. The presidential vote is done by amount of votes per state. What might make PA permanently Republican would be to monitor the elections in and around your city of Philadelphia.

[BeginnersMind]

7 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Or getting enough states to commit to allocating their electoral votes according to the results in other states.  

 

Good point there. I don’t know if that National Popular vote allocation agreement will be in place by 2020. But it’s close though with 189 electoral vote states committed and 72 more vote states where it’s been passed in one chamber of their legislative body—and though it’s dominated by blue states, OK and AZ are almost there and would flip the election if the totals favor the Dem candidate again. 

 

 

 

[BeginnersMind]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Not so sure how I understand the bolded in blue above. Gerrymandering affects the different congressional districts, not the statewide vote. The presidential vote is done by amount of votes per state. What might make PA permanently Republican would be to monitor the elections in and around your city of Philadelphia.

 

The Ds are taking over the state of PA and have flipped a lot of districts following the gerrymander fix. They are controlling the campaigns, and getting themselves out there leading dialogues. The flipping happens at the state level and flows upwards--so fixing the gerrymandering has turned PA a lot more blue. 

 

Could PA be a blue state at every level and still vote for Trump? Yes--but team Trump is in PA today because it's freaking out about what's happened to PA since the last cycle. Trump desperately needs to hold on to the slim margin he got in 2016. Again, his map to 270 requires a repeat. The Dems have more ways to win (and Bernie can screw it up for sure!). 

[DC Tom]

2 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Good point there. I don’t know if that National Popular vote allocation agreement will be in place by 2020. But it’s close though with 189 electoral vote states committed and 72 more vote states where it’s been passed in one chamber of their legislative body—and though it’s dominated by blue states, OK and AZ are almost there and would flip the election if the totals favor the Dem candidate again. 

 

 

 

 

You can't completely ignore the possibility that the Democrats want to lose in 2020...but "win the popular vote," to encourage states to adopt the National Popular Vote agreement so that they completely disenfranchise red states in 2024 and onwards.

 

Were I a DNC strategist, that's exactly what I'd be advocating - lose the race with a popular majority, and double-down on the "undermining democracy" and "fascist government" rhetoric to permanently eliminate any possibility of Republicans ever taking the presidency again.

[BeginnersMind]

9 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

You can't completely ignore the possibility that the Democrats want to lose in 2020...but "win the popular vote," to encourage states to adopt the National Popular Vote agreement so that they completely disenfranchise red states in 2024 and onwards.

 

Were I a DNC strategist, that's exactly what I'd be advocating - lose the race with a popular majority, and double-down on the "undermining democracy" and "fascist government" rhetoric to permanently eliminate any possibility of Republicans ever taking the presidency again.

 

Unverified but it sounds true: The National Popular Vote site says that the two candidates in 2016 only campaigned in 16 states as it was. I’m surprised it was so many. I bet Trump had many more than Hillary. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by BeginnersMind

[DC Tom]

17 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Unverified but it sounds true: The National Popular Vote site says that the two candidates in 2016 only campaigned in 16 states as it was. I’m surprised it was so many. I bet Trump had many more than Hillary. 

 

It's bull####.  Between them, I count about 20 in the last six weeks alone.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-10-weeks-of-2016-campaign-stops-in-one-handy-gif/

 

The Boston Globe has a better tally, but I'm not paying them to see it.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

44 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

The Ds are taking over the state of PA and have flipped a lot of districts following the gerrymander fix. They are controlling the campaigns, and getting themselves out there leading dialogues. The flipping happens at the state level and flows upwards--so fixing the gerrymandering has turned PA a lot more blue. 

 

Could PA be a blue state at every level and still vote for Trump? Yes--but team Trump is in PA today because it's freaking out about what's happened to PA since the last cycle. Trump desperately needs to hold on to the slim margin he got in 2016. Again, his map to 270 requires a repeat. The Dems have more ways to win (and Bernie can screw it up for sure!). 

 

Yeah a Democratic legislature and a Democrat-dominated supreme court "degerrymandered" meaning they designed districts for Democratic Party needs. Can't have a repeat of 2016. No sir.

 

Pennsylvania is more crooked than New Jersey at this point. Let's be clear:

They didn't "take over" anything. They designed districts to increase the influence of Philthadelphia and Schittsburgh while simultaneously diluting the strength of Republican-held areas with urban-center people.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Joe in Winslow

[Tiberius]

Yes! 

 

 

The Post reports:

The Census found that 36 percent of citizens ages 18-29 reported voting in last year’s midterm elections, jumping 16 percentage points since 2014 (when turnout was 20 percent) and easily surpassing any midterm election since the 1980s. Turnout also increased sharply among adults ages 30-44, rising from 36 percent in 2014 to 49 percent in 2018. While turnout among younger adults still lags that of their elders, last year’s election marked a clear break from the past two decades of anemic turnout among the youngest citizens

[B-Man]

Too bad the "terminally blinders" posters can't remember back a few years.....................

 

Bill Clinton getting his ass handed to him in the first off-year election.................and still winning reelection

 

The same with Barack Obama.

 

Trump will win also.

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Shocking no one...  
 

 

[B-Man]

AND THEN THERE WERE 21: Here’s the State of the 2020 Democratic Primary.