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The Draft Network's Jon Ledyard Eviscerates Allen’s Week 2 Performance

Midwest1981

By Midwest1981
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K-9 Hall of Famer

K-9

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1 minute ago, Paulus said:

Does this work grammatically? Srs.

Sorry, I don't employ an editor to proof read my posts. Perhaps you could ask another member? There is no shortage of those willing to serve as grammar police. 

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MJS
MJS

What were all the experts saying about Goff in year 1? How about RGIII?   They're wrong just as often as they are right.

Heavy Kevi
Heavy Kevi

When I talk about Josh looking good last weekend, it comes with an implied 'except the fact he's a rookie and made some terrible plays'.    I feel like that is implied because it's so obviou

plenzmd1
plenzmd1

Man, i was killing him on completed passes..just like I used to do with Tyrod. The completions to Clay and Demarco were both awful, yet completed, passes. Accuracy to me is way more about ball placeme

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Paulus Veteran

Paulus

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Just now, K-9 said:

Sorry, I don't employ an editor to proof read my posts. Perhaps you could ask another member? There is no shortage of those willing to serve as grammar police. 

No, because it may make sense. I keep picturing it as something Columbo might say. 

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K-9 Hall of Famer

K-9

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1 minute ago, Paulus said:

No, because it may make sense. I keep picturing it as something Columbo might say. 

What's throwing you off? Is it the adjective "very" preceding the word "credibility?" With or without that modifier, it works grammatically. 

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

Posted
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57 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

I mean, the videos he posted from this last week aren't wrong...but I think the rest of his just give Allen a little slack because he's so raw and new. 

 

The videos are fine, it's the editorializing ("brutally bad" or whatever it was Ledyard said).

Romo sees errors too, but he gets them for what they are, new raw rookie doing OJT (on job training) and showing that he can learn.

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Paulus Veteran

Paulus

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13 minutes ago, K-9 said:

What's throwing you off? Is it the adjective "very" preceding the word "credibility?" With or without that modifier, it works grammatically. 

Idk, it just sounded weird in my head. Perhaps, I'm just not used to people speaking like that in my day-to-day. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ idk.

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MTBill Rookie

MTBill

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19 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

No such thing. These guys revere analytics as though it was religion.

 

 

There are unbiased data scientists - but not this guy in particular.  He formed an opinion about the draft - now he is trying to support his prior opinion.  He is biased.  But there are plenty of guys with no skin in the game who do analytics.

 

I agree though that analytics takes an amount of faith in your data.  Most analtytics guys who get into the data know the data generally has more holes than swiss cheese - so you have to temper your projections.  I think our friend here is now trying to defend his position (poorly).

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TheFunPolice Hall of Famer

TheFunPolice

Posted
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Well, to be fair to the guy Josh Allen BARELY cleared the LB on his hurdle.

 

Also, after throwing for nearly 200 yards the first half, which is BARELY more than 199, he basically just handed off all second half. Totally vanished from the stat sheet.

 

Also, when he scrambled for the TD he COULD HAVE fumbled very easily, but didn't. Almost though! That WOULD HAVE cost the Bills.

 

Finally, the Bills SHOULD HAVE won by a lot more, given the way the team played.

 

So he was right after all!

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

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21 hours ago, K-9 said:

Well, he has an entrenched position. AFAIK, he is the only “pundit” who gave Allen a 3rd round grade. His very credibility as a talent evaluator is on the line every time Allen shows promise and contradicts that position. 

 

I think there were some others.  PFF guys?  I'd have to hunt and I'm not feelin' it right now.

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K-9 Hall of Famer

K-9

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think there were some others.  PFF guys?  I'd have to hunt and I'm not feelin' it right now.

No need to research it, I'll take it as fact that there were others I'm not familiar with. But I do know that in addition to our own, the scouting departments for the LA Chargers, Jaguars, and Falcons had 1st round grades on him. It's rare that there would be such drastic differences among the scouting community and I doubt any team had a 3rd round evaluation of him. These draftnik "pundits" just aren't privy to the body of information that scouts begin compiling, in earnest, from August through draft day; instead they rely on video reviews with little context to support what they are seeing. 

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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..."Allen had a 3rd rd grade from me".........so this proclaimed urinalist is a tad PO'ed 'cause the kid played better than a 3rd I take it?......

21 hours ago, K-9 said:

Well, he has an entrenched position. AFAIK, he is the only “pundit” who gave Allen a 3rd round grade. His very credibility as a talent evaluator is on the line every time Allen shows promise and contradicts that position. 

 

 

I think he meant that as a compliment honestly. I think his point was that he was higher on Allen than most of the other analytics based people out there. Most of his contemporaries that work for his site/work for PFF graded him as a late Day 3 prospect.

Edited by DCOrange
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ddaryl Veteran

ddaryl

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On ‎9‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 7:28 AM, Midwest1981 said:

"Utterly dreadful" and "brutally bad in a myriad of ways" isn't quite how I'd characterize it.  But I have to admit- I was more discouraged than encouraged.  "It's his first start," "he had a few good plays," etc.  I know those things- IMO it was still discouraging to see him miss on some blatantly open throws (Murphy & DiMarco, famoulsy) and to force those picks in the second-half (especially the first one- I was imploring him to throw it away as he released it)...

 

Ledyard correctly mentions "there's a long way to go"- and I still think Allen's relentlessly competitive nature gives him a chance, even with his pre-draft concerns rearing their ugly head again in start #1 (mechanical unsoundness, inconsistent accuracy, decision-making, etc.).  Still, I was hoping week #1 offered a few more positives (there WERE some), even considering all factors like the Bills' under-talented roster, the opponent, his first NFL start, etc.

 

https://twitter.com/LedyardNFLDraft/status/1041772507903262720

 

 

 

Allen looked ho hum at his best vs Chargers . I saw a player who had accuracy issues.... There wasn't alot to pull positively IMO from the Chargers game.. You just hope he gets better which he did vs the Vikings on the road.

 

Here's hoping he continues to progress vs GB

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K-9

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3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

 

I think he meant that as a compliment honestly. I think his point was that he was higher on Allen than most of the other analytics based people out there. Most of his contemporaries that work for his site/work for PFF graded him as a late Day 3 prospect.

A late day three prospect? Late day three would suggest a 6th or 7th round pick. These idiots are even more removed from reality than I thought. 

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DCOrange Veteran

DCOrange

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20 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....why would he?...he pegged Josh as a 3rd rounder and got shown up......bet he had the other two at 1sts............

He had Darnold graded as a 2nd round pick and Mayfield as a mid-1st round pick. He had Rosen as the only early 1st round graded QB.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/04/20/ledyards-final-2018-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

Edited by DCOrange
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OldTimeAFLGuy

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1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

He had Darnold graded as a 2nd round pick and Mayfield as a mid-1st round pick. He had Rosen as the only early 1st round graded QB.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/04/20/ledyards-final-2018-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

 

 

...interesting.....thanks......:thumbsup:

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Cash Veteran

Cash

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21 hours ago, H2o said:

So.........without reading through this whole thread to try and find out, has Ledtard apologized yet? 

 

What would he apologize for?  Allen played bad in week 2.  Allen playing much better in week 3 doesn't mean he's owed an apology for saying he was bad in week 2.  Or is Ledyard meant to be apologizing to Bills fans for hurting our feelings?  Personally, my feelings weren't hurt by people calling the Bills bad on twitter, they were hurt by the Bills playing bad on the field.  I don't think I'll be getting an apology from Sean McDermott, though.

 

And Ledyard's review of Allen's week 3 performance was much more positive, both on twitter and on his podcast.  If he had continued saying Allen was terrible, even though Allen obviously played at least pretty well, he would've lost all credibility with me.  For now, he retains some amount of credibility.

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Juice_32 Veteran

Juice_32

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, MTBill said:

I'm an analytics guy - data science is very helpful.

 

One thing though - it's only as helpful as what you put into it.  Sports analytics is still a relatively young field and there are a LOT of variables unaccounted for.

 

So - it is a bit annoying that this guy does not seem to acknowledge his grade could be wrong...  It would be a fascinating case study if these people were to run the same analytics over the data on some HOF QBs against their college careers.  I suspect what they'd find out is that analytics isn't the whole story and they need to tweak their models to get better at it.  If all other talent/opponents college QBs faced were equal - you could focus on the measurable from only the QB.  But in reality, surrounding talent/coaching/opponents are vastly wide ranging - and that has a huge impact on the QB's measureables.

 

It's OK to be wrong John Ledyard.  Stop throwing crap like "this is why I had him as a 3rd round pick" in your weekly breakdown.  Critique him on the evidence before you, sans your prior judgement.

 

 

This ^^^

 

One such variable that this guy never takes into account from what I have seen is the current situation/score in the game. He is quick to pick Josh apart for not taking a chance on a tight window throw, but does not point out that at the time we are up 17-0 and taking the chance there would be foolhardy. Tuck it and run, sometimes a punt is the best play.

 

John Ledyard is crusading and it is going to be very entertaining to watch over the next 14 weeks. As you say, it is OK to be wrong. I will admit that I was. I wanted Rosen badly but damn am I glad I didn't make the pick.

Edited by Juice_32
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H2o Hall of Famer

H2o

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8 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

What would he apologize for?  Allen played bad in week 2.  Allen playing much better in week 3 doesn't mean he's owed an apology for saying he was bad in week 2.  Or is Ledyard meant to be apologizing to Bills fans for hurting our feelings?  Personally, my feelings weren't hurt by people calling the Bills bad on twitter, they were hurt by the Bills playing bad on the field.  I don't think I'll be getting an apology from Sean McDermott, though.

 

And Ledyard's review of Allen's week 3 performance was much more positive, both on twitter and on his podcast.  If he had continued saying Allen was terrible, even though Allen obviously played at least pretty well, he would've lost all credibility with me.  For now, he retains some amount of credibility.

Let's not get our panties in a bunch over one remark made from a sarcastic perspective. It was dig at the people who got all bent out of shape over his remarks in the first place. :thumbsup:

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Juice_32 Veteran

Juice_32

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21 hours ago, Doc said:

Again, did this guy do analyses of Mayfield and Darnold's last 2 games?

 

I'd love to see it if he did. If anyone can find it please share. It would also be nice to know what his pre-draft "analysis" was of the other guys.

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34-78-83

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4 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

 

This ^^^

 

One such variable that this guy never takes into account from what I have seen is the current situation/score in the game. He is quick to pick Josh apart for not taking a chance on a tight window throw, but does not point out that at the time we are up 17-0 and taking the chance there would be foolhardy. Tuck it and run, sometimes a punt is the best play.

 

This is exactly what makes analytics (At times) utterly meaningless. It's a nice tool to use as PART of an analysis. it NEVER provides te whole picture.

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Bobby Hooks Veteran

Bobby Hooks

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

 

This ^^^

 

One such variable that this guy never takes into account from what I have seen is the current situation/score in the game. He is quick to pick Josh apart for not taking a chance on a tight window throw, but does not point out that at the time we are up 17-0 and taking the chance there would be foolhardy. Tuck it and run, sometimes a punt is the best play.

 

John Ledyard is crusading and it is going to be very entertaining to watch over the next 14 weeks. As you say, it is OK to be wrong. I will admit that I was. I wanted Rosen badly but damn am I glad I didn't make the pick.

I wanted Rosen too. I’m not willing to say I was wrong about that just yet, but I am extremely encouraged by Allen’s progression. 

 

Kid looks like the real deal, and is focused on the right things. Better than I could’ve imagined. At this point. I’ve been fooled before, Trent Edwards, Fitzmagic, EJ for a game or two... 

 

Please let this QB seeking part of my life be over. As other Bills fans understand, It’s exhausting. 

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Hapless Bills Fan Hall of Famer

Hapless Bills Fan

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On 9/27/2018 at 11:37 AM, Juice_32 said:

 

I'd love to see it if he did. If anyone can find it please share. It would also be nice to know what his pre-draft "analysis" was of the other guys.

 

 You can see Ledyard's pre-draft take on Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold here:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/04/20/ledyards-final-2018-nfl-draft-positional-rankings-quarterbacks/

 

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