Why the Bills Won't Trade Up to #2 (or 3 or 4)

[Shaw66]

Like lots of people here, I've been thinking about what might happen between now and Thursday night.  

 

We've seen some rumors about the Bills talking to the Giants and some rumors about there being no deal with the Giants.  

 

Well, as I think about, it seems clear that there'll be no deal with Giants because the Bills can't offer the Giants anything that works for the Giants.  

 

Either the Giants want one of the good QBs or they don't.   If they want one of the good QBs, then the only trade they'll do is to move to 1, 3 or possibly 4.   If they trade down below 4, the QB they want could be gone.   If they want one of the stud non-QBs, they can't move to 5 because the Browns may take the best stud non-QB at 4.   

 

So it seems likely the only way the Bills could get to #2 would be if the Bills first traded to 4 and then traded up again.   But getting to 4 will be expensive - probably at least the 12 and 22, and that would be only if the Browns didn't like any of the studs at the top of the draft.   Then from 4 to 2 probably would cost next year's first.   

 

There's a rumor that the Bills actually offered those three firsts to the Giants and the Giants said no.   The Giants said no, probably, because they know they don't want to pick below 3 or 4 at the worst, and getting those three firsts doesn't help them UNLESS THEY have a deal with the Browns for 4.   

 

So that means to me the only route there is for the Bills to get to #2 is essentially a three-team trade, where the Bills go to #2, the Giants go to #4 and get the Bills' first round pick next year, and the Browns get the Bills' #12 and #22.   (Maybe a few late-round picks thrown in here and there to grease the skids.)   That seems to me to be a very, very hard deal to make.   Giants more or less won't do it if they want a QB, because it lets Buffalo and the Jets get in the QB line ahead of the Giants.   Only can work if the Giants want one of the top-of-the-draft non-QB studs AND the Browns don't want any of them.   

 

And it's much easier for the Giants to tell the Jets they're looking to trade out of #2, and to protect themselves the Jets would need to trade up.   So the Giants can easily pick up another nice pick by moving back to #3, at no cost to them so long as they don't want a QB.   

 

So the Bills are picking, at the very best, 4th.   Even that seems like a stretch.   The QB they want would have to be there (after the Browns, Giants and Jets have taken two or three of the QBs), and the Bills would have to be willing to give 12 and 22 to get there.   Possible, not likely.  

 

Can the Bills get to 5?   Only if the Broncos don't want the QB the Bills want. 

 

So it looks to me like Bills will be picking after at least 3 QBs have come off the board.  

 

If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this:   Two months ago, that was  21, 22 and Cordy Glenn.   Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3?   THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible.   The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer.  

[26CornerBlitz]

#3? With the NYJ?  You don't say.  I highly doubt the the NYG and NYJ work together on any deal. 

Edited April 22, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

 

If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this:   Two months ago, that was  21, 22 and Cordy Glenn.   Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3?   THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible.   The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer.  

While I can't say definitively whether the Bills made the offer to the Colts or not, I CAN say this...Colts GM Chris Ballard is on the record as saying that, while he's willing to move back, he doesn't want to move back so far that he's out of "premiere player" range. He has stated that he believes there are only 8 "premiere level" non-QB players in this draft. As such, I doubt the Colts would've agreed to move down that far. I even doubt that they'd be willing to move back to 12, since that's right on the edge of being out of "premiere player" range, according to Ballard.

 

[John from Riverside]

People need to be prepared that staying at 12 and picking could actually happen......

 

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

People need to be prepared that staying at 12 and picking could actually happen......

 

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

It could happen for sure. Make no mistake though, short of a miracle happening this scenario would be the depths of suckitude for Bills fans. Just can't call it anything else, given all the moves made beginning with the pass on QBs at 10 last year. 

[KRT88]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

People need to be prepared that staying at 12 and picking could actually happen......

 

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

This just isn't going to happen.  Buffalo seems far more likely to move up to 6 thu 9! They are not staying at 12.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

It could happen for sure. Make no mistake though, short of a miracle happening this scenario would be the depths of suckitude for Bills fans. Just can't call it anything else, given all the moves made beginning with the pass on QBs at 10 last year. 

I was very dissapointed when I saw that the Giants turned down 3 first round picks......

 

If the trade partner wont play....they cant just curl up in a fetal position and call it a day.

1 minute ago, KRT88 said:

This just isn't going to happen.  Buffalo seems far more likely to move up to 6 thu 9! They are not staying at 12.

It absolutely could happen

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

People need to be prepared that staying at 12 and picking could actually happen......

 

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

 

Are you kidding me? I think it's pretty clear that a huge portion of us are fully committed to the trade up option. Make no mistake, staying at 12 and missing on the big 3 will break hearts left and right. 

[PastorMKC]

For the Bills to move up to #4 (If The Browns Want to Trade) would cost them 12 and 22 or 12, 56, 65  Or 12, 65 and 2019 #1 ...

[John from Riverside]

Just now, NickelCity said:

 

Are you kidding me? I think it's pretty clear that a huge portion of us are fully committed to the trade up option. Make no mistake, staying at 12 and missing on the big 3 will break hearts left and right. 

takes two to tango

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The Jets might have overpaid for the 3rd pick to making it harder for a team to trade up in front of them. My ideal draft is for Darnold and Mayfield gone at picks 1 and 2 leaving the Jets with the ????????? QB's.

Edited April 22, 2018 by Call_Of_Ktulu

[NickelCity]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

takes two to tango

 

Undoubtedly. I'm aware that we might not be able to trade up. I'm just saying it will break my heart. I am fully set up for heartbreak, in other words. Heh. 

[White Linen]

1 minute ago, NickelCity said:

 

Are you kidding me? I think it's pretty clear that a huge portion of us are fully committed to the trade up option. Make no mistake, staying at 12 and missing on the big 3 will break hearts left and right. 

 

It doesn't matter - it's all about a trade partner.  

Just now, NickelCity said:

 

Undoubtedly. I'm aware that we might not be able to trade up. I'm just saying it will break my heart. I am fully set up for heartbreak, in other words. Heh. 

 

Something that may help you is the QB's in this years draft from best to worst will not be in the same order they were drafted.  

[John from Riverside]

Just now, NickelCity said:

 

Undoubtedly. I'm aware that we might not be able to trade up. I'm just saying it will break my heart. I am fully set up for heartbreak, in other words. Heh. 

Im sorry man....:(

 

I dont think that way.....when I see plan A might not happen I am already on to plan B.....then if plan A happens I am pleasantly suprised

[TigerJ]

I agree with most that you said, Shaw.  It is a given that Cleveland and the Jets are picking a QB.  The Giants may or may not.  The Broncos may or may not.   I would be surprised if Buffalo traded up to #2.  I'm not ruling out moving up to #4, however.  Obviously, the higher they want to go, the higher the price.  The heights to which they are willing to move in a trade will depend in part on how much they like the QB or QBs who remain, and possibly on whether there is one or two.

[McBean]

Stay at 12 and draft Edmunds then Rudolph at 22.

 

OR

 

Jackson at 12 and Vander Esch at 22.

 

We aren’t moving to 2 because the Giants are taking a QB. The media is fake news. They know about as much as Dunkirk Dufus and just throw crap at the wall hoping some of it sticks.

 

Let me ask you this, how many media members mocked Trubisky to Chicago last year? ZERO!

 

I’ll tell you another thing as well. Not only are the Giants taking a QB, but the Broncos will as well. That’s my bold prediction. 4 QB’s go inside the top 5.

 

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I wonder if the bills can use 22 a third and next years 1st to get to the Bucs or broncos pick. Then use that pick and 12 to get to 2

[TigerJ]

If I'm Beane, I'm talking to John Elway about #5 before I talk to anybody else.  If Elway is adamant about not trading, that makes me suspicious that he's after a QB.  If I coveted a QB that much, I might then talk with Cleveland about #4.  If Elway is TOO eager to trade, I might suspect he's not interested in a QB.  At that point I might start talking with Indy or even Tampa about the terms of a trade.  The only sticking point about going too low is that in raises the odds of Miami or Arizona jumping ahead of the Bills to snatch  the last of the big 4.  If there are 2 QBs left that I like, after the Jets get theirs, I might be more inclined to take that chance.

[NickelCity]

23 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Im sorry man....:(

 

I dont think that way.....when I see plan A might not happen I am already on to plan B.....then if plan A happens I am pleasantly suprised

 

I'll put it this way: if we draft Darnold or Rosen, I'm thrilled. If we draft Mayfield, I'm excited (close to thrilled tbh).  If we draft Allen or Jackson, I will be disappointed but as a coping mechanism will talk myself into liking it. If draft anyone else, I think that disappointment will be enduring. Whoever we draft, I will root for of course. 

[JinxedBill1]

Bills trade up and take Rosen at 5,6, or 7. Every other team regrets it for 15 years

[Shaw66]

38 minutes ago, Logic said:

While I can't say definitively whether the Bills made the offer to the Colts or not, I CAN say this...Colts GM Chris Ballard is on the record as saying that, while he's willing to move back, he doesn't want to move back so far that he's out of "premiere player" range. He has stated that he believes there are only 8 "premiere level" non-QB players in this draft. As such, I doubt the Colts would've agreed to move down that far. I even doubt that they'd be willing to move back to 12, since that's right on the edge of being out of "premiere player" range, according to Ballard.

 

That's a good point.  

34 minutes ago, KRT88 said:

This just isn't going to happen.  Buffalo seems far more likely to move up to 6 thu 9! They are not staying at 12.

I agree.   I think the Bills have to worry that the Dolphins want a QB or someone else will trade up.   Of course, there has to be a QB the Bills want.  

[transplantbillsfan]

Shaw, I think you're looking at "3 1st round picks!!!" too superficially. Where those picks are, what they're valued at, and most importantly, Beane's intentions and goals are what matters.

 

I've been assuming from the moment we acquired an extra 1st round pick last year in the draft that McDermott wanted to wait 1 year to pursue getting a Franchise QB since Whaley, not Beane was still our GM and, therefore, in charge of college scouting for the 2017 QBs.

 

And then when Beane got here, he kept compiling picks... shrewdly getting them for players McDermott and Beane inherited and didn't really want.

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

I say we take those 4 picks and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

We can and should still get a couple other good players in the 2nd and 3rd round even in doing that.

 

According to the draft chart:

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess.

 

So the Bills maybe already offered next year's 1st and both our 1sts this year? A pick in the ensuing year is supposedly valued 1 round lower than the same pick this year. So, our 1st next year is actually valued as a 2nd rounder, not a 1st.

 

Let's say our 2nd next year will be roughly the same as our 2nd this year... maybe make it a little more valuable at 400 points.

 

Suddenly those "3 1st round picks!!!" are 2380 points to the Giants 2600 points and we need to throw in at least a 3rd rounder this year if not a 2nd.

 

 

Who knows what really happens, but it's weird the way a lot of Bills fans are saying "the price is too steep to trade up!!!" Seems a bit disingenuous. When was the last time we had a Franchise QB? When we're we last a viable contender?

Edited April 23, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Just Joshin']

The Giants and Browns GMs seem more old school - quality over quantity.

 

Broncos could be in play as they need to win now and two picks fill more holes.

 

Colts need volume and may take more picks vs 2 #1s.

 

So Beane needs to target 5/6 and hope only 2 QBs go in top 4.

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, McBean said:

Stay at 12 and draft Edmunds then Rudolph at 22.

 

OR

 

Jackson at 12 and Vander Esch at 22.

 

We aren’t moving to 2 because the Giants are taking a QB. The media is fake news. They know about as much as Dunkirk Dufus and just throw crap at the wall hoping some of it sticks., 

Let me ask you this, how many media members mocked Trubisky to Chicago last year? ZERO!

 

I’ll tell you another thing as well. Not only are the Giants taking a QB, but the Broncos will as well. That’s my bold prediction. 4 QB’s go inside the top 5.

 

 

I agree with this too.   I just can't see how the Giants can afford to pass on a QB.   So three QBs go in the top 4, and as you say maybe 4 in 5.   

 

So if the Bills' favorite QB is available at 4, MAYBE they can put together a deal with the Browns to get ahead of the Broncos.  

 

All seems pretty remote to me.   

[NickelCity]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I just can't see how the Giants can afford to pass on a QB.   So three QBs go in the top 4, and as you say maybe 4 in 5.   

 

So if the Bills' favorite QB is available at 4, MAYBE they can put together a deal with the Browns to get ahead of the Broncos.  

 

All seems pretty remote to me.   

 

Our top 3 guys going in the top 3 picks is all too possible. I mentioned being disappointed if we don't get our guy, but I somewhat expect it. Hoping against hope. 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Shaw, I think you're just looking at "3 1st round picks!!!" too superficially. Where those picks are and what their valued at is what matters.

 

Shaw, I think you're looking at "3 1st round picks!!!" too superficially. Where those picks are, what they're valued at, and most importantly, Beane's intentions and goals are what matters.

 

I've been assuming from the moment we acquired an extra 1st round pick last year in the draft that McDermott wanted to wait 1 year to pursue getting a Franchise QB since Whaley, not Beane was still our GM and, therefore, in charge of college scouting for the 2017 QBs.

 

And then when Beane got here, he kept compiling picks... shrewdly getting them for players McDermott and Beane inherited and didn't really want.

 

Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better.

 

One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option.

 

One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away.

 

 

I say we take those 4 picks and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th.

 

We can and should still get a couple other good players in the 2nd and 3rd round even in doing that.

 

According to the draft chart:

#12 = 1200 points 

#22 = 780 points 

#53 = 370 points 

#65 = 265 points 

 

Grand total = 2615 points 

 

#2 pick = 2600 points

 

So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess.

 

So the Bills maybe already offered next year's 1st and both our 1sts this year? A pick in the ensuing year is supposedly valued 1 round lower than the same pick this year. So, our 1st next year is actually valued as a 2nd rounder, not a 1st.

 

Let's say our 2nd next year will be roughly the same as our 2nd this year... maybe make it a little more valuable at 400 points.

 

Suddenly those "3 1st round picks!!!" are 2380 points to the Giants 2600 points and we need to throw in at least a 3rd rounder this year if not a 2nd.

 

 

Who knows what really happens, but it's weird the way a lot of Bills fans are saying "the price is too steep to trade up!!!" Seems a bit disingenuous. When was the last time we had a Franchise QB? When we're we last a viable contender?

Hello?   You're not listening.   It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up.   It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick.   

 

The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year.   But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year.   

 

So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart."   The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2.   And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4.    The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim.   That's what I explained in my post.   

 

NickelCity is right.   There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday.   

 

Mason Rudolph, here we come.  

[BobDVA]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Hello?   You're not listening.   It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up.   It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick.   

 

The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year.   But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year.   

 

So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart."   The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2.   And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4.    The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim.   That's what I explained in my post.   

 

NickelCity is right.   There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday.   

 

Mason Rudolph, here we come.  

I do not have a problem with that.

[transplantbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

People need to be prepared that staying at 12 and picking could actually happen......

 

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

 

It could, because it's possible we won't have a trade partner or the price will be too high.

 

But the problem with the perspective of some is that both our 1sts this year and our 1st next year was probably nothing more than a starting point in the conversation to move up to 2. If the Giants had accepted only that and we were sitting at 2 now, everyone here should be dancing with joy. 

 

But instead Beane is likely weighing how much more he's willing to part with.

 

 

But I'm prepared to stay at 12 if we get Jackson as a consolation prize.

[BillsVet]

58 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Dont set yourselves up for heartbreak

 

Why start now? 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Dalton said:

The Giants and Browns GMs seem more old school - quality over quantity.

 

Broncos could be in play as they need to win now and two picks fill more holes.

 

Colts need volume and may take more picks vs 2 #1s.

 

So Beane needs to target 5/6 and hope only 2 QBs go in top 4.

5/6 is correct.   5 is the first spot where a deal could happen, and then only if the Broncos aren't in the QB market or don't like what's left.   

 

I like Mayfield first and Rosen second.   There's some chance one falls to 5 and possibly even 6.   That's why I think that if the Bills trade up, it'll be to 5, 6, 7, 8, and then only if the right guy is still on the board.  

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It could, because it's possible we won't have a trade partner or the price will be too high.

 

But the problem with the perspective of some is that both our 1sts this year and our 1st next year was probably nothing more than a starting point in the conversation to move up to 2. If the Giants had accepted only that and we were sitting at 2 now, everyone here should be dancing with joy. 

 

But instead Beane is likely weighing how much more he's willing to part with.

 

 

But I'm prepared to stay at 12 if we get Jackson as a consolation prize.

Something else to consider....we dont know how much influence our new OC is having with the HC and Beane.....the offense he brings from college is taylor made for Lamar Jackson.

 

I also think Rosen can run it well and he is more scheme diverse......so there is that.  Once again its all about what Bean is willing to give up.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

5/6 is correct.   5 is the first spot where a deal could happen, and then only if the Broncos aren't in the QB market or don't like what's left.   

 

I like Mayfield first and Rosen second.   There's some chance one falls to 5 and possibly even 6.   That's why I think that if the Bills trade up, it'll be to 5, 6, 7, 8, and then only if the right guy is still on the board.  

This is what I've expected to happen since Elway announced that they're looking to trade.

 

Hopefully Rosen or Mayfield are there. I wouldn't mind Darnold, either.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

This is what I've expected to happen since Elway announced that they're looking to trade.

 

Hopefully Rosen or Mayfield are there. I wouldn't mind Darnold, either.

Yeah, Darnold is my third.   Any one of those three, I'm okay if they make a big deal with the Broncs.   But as someone said and I echoed, 3 or 4 could go in the first 4 or 5 picks.   

[NickelCity]

In my infinite hand-wringing I also wouldn't be surprised at one of the following: let's say the Giants really are open to a trade if Darnold goes to Cleveland. Would the Jets panic and try to flip 3 for 2? That 12th pick really is a few spots too far, eh? Anyway, what an entertaining draft! I can't wait. 

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

I was very dissapointed when I saw that the Giants turned down 3 first round picks......

 

If the trade partner wont play....they cant just curl up in a fetal position and call it a day.

It absolutely could happen

  Denial is not just a river in Egypt and there are a couple dozen posters minimum that emotionally have them selves set pretty high up.

[NickelCity]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Denial is not just a river in Egypt and there are a couple dozen posters minimum that emotionally have them selves set pretty high up.

 

I chuckled at that low-ball estimate. Whatever happens, can the servers on here handle it?

Edited April 22, 2018 by NickelCity

[BadLandsMeanie]

A thought provoking post. I of course, have no idea what anybody will do, besides being very sure the Jets will take a QB.

 

Here is my take on what the Giants might do if they do not want a QB at #2, and how the Bills could get that #2 pick.

 

Let's say the Bills will only trade the farm for one player so they can't make a deal until the Browns pick. 

 

A giant swap of picks when the Giants go on the clock could lead to disaster for the Giants if they want to pick higher than #12 and plus then they have a whole different draft board profile working with a hugely different set of picks (The Bills old ones). It would be a lot to contend with during the draft with the clock ticking I think. Maybe not a smart thing to do.

 

Except if the Bills have done that work for them already, without anyone knowing. The Bills could and should already know pretty much what it will take to get to picks 4,5,6,7,8,9,10 based on the picks they have. So the Bills could offer in effect, the 7th overall pick, plus added picks, to the Giants for their #2. They wouldn't give the Giants that 7 pick directly but they would give them the picks to get it, plus whatever else they had to add to make it worth the jump from 7 to 2.

 

No one in the Giants division picks before #13 so there would be no complication there.

 

In sum, the Gaints probably can't react quickly enough to re-plan their draft carefully if they trade on draft day. But the Bills could already have the deals worked out in principle for the Giants so they just hand them the keys so to speak. And they could do this because Gentleman and Beane are friends who trust each other.

 

What do people think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hello?   You're not listening.   It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up.   It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick.   

 

The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year.   But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year.   

 

So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart."   The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2.   And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4.    The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim.   That's what I explained in my post.   

 

NickelCity is right.   There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday.   

 

Mason Rudolph, here we come.  

 

Shaw, you bring up price and willingness to part with picks several times in the OP. This thread is, in large part, pretty clearly about cost.

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Like lots of people here, I've been thinking about what might happen between now and Thursday night.  

 

We've seen some rumors about the Bills talking to the Giants and some rumors about there being no deal with the Giants.  

 

Well, as I think about, it seems clear that there'll be no deal with Giants because the Bills can't offer the Giants anything that works for the Giants.  

 

Either the Giants want one of the good QBs or they don't.   If they want one of the good QBs, then the only trade they'll do is to move to 1, 3 or possibly 4.   If they trade down below 4, the QB they want could be gone.   If they want one of the stud non-QBs, they can't move to 5 because the Browns may take the best stud non-QB at 4.   

 

So it seems likely the only way the Bills could get to #2 would be if the Bills first traded to 4 and then traded up again.   But getting to 4 will be expensive - probably at least the 12 and 22, and that would be only if the Browns didn't like any of the studs at the top of the draft.   Then from 4 to 2 probably would cost next year's first.   

 

There's a rumor that the Bills actually offered those three firsts to the Giants and the Giants said no.   The Giants said no, probably, because they know they don't want to pick below 3 or 4 at the worst, and getting those three firsts doesn't help them UNLESS THEY have a deal with the Browns for 4.   

 

So that means to me the only route there is for the Bills to get to #2 is essentially a three-team trade, where the Bills go to #2, the Giants go to #4 and get the Bills' first round pick next year, and the Browns get the Bills' #12 and #22.   (Maybe a few late-round picks thrown in here and there to grease the skids.)   That seems to me to be a very, very hard deal to make.   Giants more or less won't do it if they want a QB, because it lets Buffalo and the Jets get in the QB line ahead of the Giants.   Only can work if the Giants want one of the top-of-the-draft non-QB studs AND the Browns don't want any of them.   

 

And it's much easier for the Giants to tell the Jets they're looking to trade out of #2, and to protect themselves the Jets would need to trade up.   So the Giants can easily pick up another nice pick by moving back to #3, at no cost to them so long as they don't want a QB.   

 

So the Bills are picking, at the very best, 4th.   Even that seems like a stretch.   The QB they want would have to be there (after the Browns, Giants and Jets have taken two or three of the QBs), and the Bills would have to be willing to give 12 and 22 to get there.   Possible, not likely. 

 

Can the Bills get to 5?   Only if the Broncos don't want the QB the Bills want. 

 

So it looks to me like Bills will be picking after at least 3 QBs have come off the board.  

 

If the Bills actually did offer the Giants three first round picks (12, 22 and 2019) for #2, I wonder this:   Two months ago, that was  21, 22 and Cordy Glenn.   Did the Bills offer THAT to the Colts for #3?   THAT's the deal the Bills should have made, if it was possible.   The problem always was that the Jets had a much more attractive first-round pick to offer. 

 

Everyone has a price. I suspect that, as you say, our only route to #2 is a 3 way trade getting up to #4-#6 (I disagree with the notion the Giants won't go below 4, but agree they won't freefall to 12), and I'm sure Beane is on the phone with everyone from #2-#10 trying to work out a deal or multiple deals.

 

Yeah, it might not get done. But part of what you are talking about here is cost, and you don't even seem to realize it.

 

 

Personally, I like Rudolph, but I don't think we're targeting him. Mid to late 1st round QB from Oklahoma State as the 4th-5th QB drafted in the 1st round of a strong QB draft sounds too much like Brandon Weeden 2.0.

 

Lamar Jackson at #12, please.

Edited April 22, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[RochesterRob]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hello?   You're not listening.   It isn't a question of whether the Bills have enough to offer to move up.   It's a question whether the Giants will take ANYTHING to move out of the second pick.   

 

The Giants are playing Eli this year, apparently, and maybe next year.   But pretty soon, they're going to need a QB, and they aren't likely to have another opportunity as good as they have this year.   

 

So the Giants are saying "screw the draft trade chart."   The Giants don't want five picks starting at 12; they want one pick at 2.   And if they don't a pick at 2, they want one at 3 or 4.    The chances of putting together a deal with the Giants and the Browns to get the Giants to 4 are very, very slim.   That's what I explained in my post.   

 

NickelCity is right.   There probably are going to be a lot of broken hearts around 10 pm on Thursday.   

 

Mason Rudolph, here we come.  

  I have been trying to get this point across for weeks now.  The Giants may want to get their QB of the future now while the cost is cheap.  Rosen, Darnold >>>>>>>>>>> Webb.

[Augie]

34 minutes ago, JinxedBill1 said:

Bills trade up and take Rosen at 5,6, or 7. Every other team regrets it for 15 years

 

I’m OK with that! 

 

All the speculating is fun and burns some nervous energy, but we have no clue what kind of deal might be struck, or how many teams might be involved. They seem hell bent on getting their QB in this draft, and I’m sure they have high standards, so something huge would not shock me. Drafting at 12 and 22 would also not shock me.