IF we don’t get a FA QB, and can’t trade up....

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, Virgil said:

If all the desired FA QB’s sign elsewhere and if the top 4 QB’s are gone before we can trade up...

 

And without bitching about it or saying “trade up period”......

 

What would you like to see done with our picks?

 

I would want the Bills to hopefully try to trade back more. I wouldn’t care if they traded out of the first round altogether.  

 

Ideally, I’d trade a 1st this year for a 1st next year, to have the ammo for a possible trade up next year. I’d like to take our 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and make it 7 or 8. 

 

Basically, I want to build all the pieces we can and set ourselves up for a QB next year. I believe that quality of starter late first round is similar to second round picks.  We can really build a foundation and put ourselves in position for a QB next year. 

 

If we can fill the other holes with our draft this year, selling the farm to trade up for a QB the following year won’t hurt as much. 

 

My biggest fear to trading up this year is that we will have too many holes to fill and not the picks to fill them with. 

 

Draft Lamar at 21 then a stud DT at 22.  Then prioritize looking for help at LB, OL, WR, and RB and maybe DB (if Gaines leaves) in rounds 2 through 4.

[KDIGGZ]

4 minutes ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

 

He's not saying not to get a QB, he's saying what if we CAN'T.  

 

When you just draft a QB regardless because you need it, that's how you end up with JP Losman, that's how you end up with EJ Manuel.

 

 

Move up and have your pick. Giants, Colts, Browns. One of them will do a deal

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Draft Lamar at 21 then a stud DT at 22.  Then prioritize looking for help at LB, OL, WR, and RB and maybe DB (if Gaines leaves) in rounds 2 through 4.

It all depends on the asking price to move up to me....but I would not be against this plan.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

It all depends on the asking price to move up to me....but I would not be against this plan.

 

 

 

Well the premise of the thread is that we didn't trade up.

[RochesterRob]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

First off let me say Virgil that this is a good thread to start.  Too many, go get "their guy" (which may not even be an option for OBD) opinions.

Anything can happen at draft time.  Like you say it will start with FA.  Let's forget about Cousins signing with the Bills and ask where does he sign.

Most hoping (myself included) he signs with the Broncos or Jets.  Of course this would be great because it takes another team out of the QB draft.  But what if he signs with

Minnesota and Foles stays with Philly.

 

The next question would be, how many teams ahead of us in the draft believe one of the "leftover"  FA QB's is "their guy" that they want to role with instead of a rookie?

If that answer is zero, then OBD has some real worries.  Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater and AJ McCarron are all risky starter moves.

 

I can't comment on non QB drafts yet because until FA is over with I can't tell what our position of need vs remaining draft option players would be available.

It is still (until then) all about the QB.

 

 

I'm reading about a lot of teams that have quality QB's today interested in QB's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There are many articles about New England, Pittsburg, Miami, New Orleans, Cincinnati all looking for 2nd tier guys.

OBD has to keep this in mind.

 

I think our new front office is smart and looking to work through all these issue, but we need some good luck too.

  I think that most of the "get your guy" or "get any of the most talked about QB's" advocates are living in a fantasy world.  They expect a given QB prospect that has a ceiling of 4,000-4,500 yards, 30 TD's, 10 INT's and down the line will be ignored by virtually every other team in terms of picking when their slot comes up such as with Cleveland, NYG, Jets, or Broncos or that somebody will orchestrate their own trade up such as with Miami, Cincy, or Arizona.   If Rosen, Darnold, etc. are truly high end prospects I think the chances of them slipping away from the top slotted teams or falling out of the top ten are minimal.   

[Canadian Bills Fan]

We have to get a QB in this draft.

 

We need to trade up.

 

When we got the extra 1st round pick from the Chiefs, I'm pretty sure everyone was thinking "Now we have more ammo to trade up in the draft to get a QB"

 

 

[John from Riverside]

20 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

We have to get a QB in this draft.

 

We need to trade up.

 

When we got the extra 1st round pick from the Chiefs, I'm pretty sure everyone was thinking "Now we have more ammo to trade up in the draft to get a QB"

 

 

They might have also thought at that time that it would be a rebiuld season (given all the other moves they made) and didnt expect to be drafting in the 20's

 

 

[simool]

44 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

We have to get a QB in this draft.

 

We need to trade up.

 

When we got the extra 1st round pick from the Chiefs, I'm pretty sure everyone was thinking "Now we have more ammo to trade up in the draft to get a QB"

 

I wasn't.  Not knowing what the two most important people were thinking is the key flaw in your logic.

 

I could see it going either way.  Personally I just don't feel like anyone is worth trading up for.  All of them have issues.  You draft who is there.

 

I believe we have a shot at Lamar Jackson if they keep Tyrod, or we could trade back get another pick or two and still draft Mike White.  Then you can sign this guy as a UDFA

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/299623/5a1a3235bd6af20ba495c135

 

and figure it out from there.  Worst case we have another high pick next year, and with all of the holes on this team; that might not be a bad thing.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

If all the desired FA QB’s sign elsewhere and if the top 4 QB’s are gone before we can trade up...

 

And without bitching about it or saying “trade up period”......

 

What would you like to see done with our picks?

 

I would want the Bills to hopefully try to trade back more. I wouldn’t care if they traded out of the first round altogether.  

 

Ideally, I’d trade a 1st this year for a 1st next year, to have the ammo for a possible trade up next year. I’d like to take our 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and make it 7 or 8. 

 

Basically, I want to build all the pieces we can and set ourselves up for a QB next year. I believe that quality of starter late first round is similar to second round picks.  We can really build a foundation and put ourselves in position for a QB next year. 

 

If we can fill the other holes with our draft this year, selling the farm to trade up for a QB the following year won’t hurt as much. 

 

My biggest fear to trading up this year is that we will have too many holes to fill and not the picks to fill them with. 

 

....McBeane and his gang have accumulated the best Bflo draft capital in recent years.......it is either to move up and heavily invest capital in ONE player to do so..OR......to draft as many (hopefully) quality players that fit the "process".....I'm inclined to think (just OPINION) the latter......just think he plays it conservatively close to the vest as well as FA dollars with no MAJOR investment in ONE player....staying at 21/22, he may go OL/DL or DL/OL depending on preference, and look to the 2nd for a QB and LB.......QB's said to be available are Rudolph, Falk, Lauletta, etc or the "mid-tier" crop....remaining picks could be for a RB behind Shady and a WR, etc.......a solid 2018 draft and some value FA's leading into the 2019 draft and $80+ mil in cap space, (hopefully) again being solid, sets this club up as a long term contender.....

Edited February 26, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

I should have known this would be impossible 

 

Virgil, all respect, I think the scenario is pretty implausible which in part drives the conversation being impossible....

 

It would be very rare for 4 QB to go in the first 20 draft picks.  It happened in 1999 when 5 QB were drafted in the 1st 12 picks (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, Cade McNown).  It happened in 2011 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) The results were not encouraging in either case..... 

 

Either way it begs the question "who are the top 4 QB?"  Draft pundits often see it differently than GMs do.  So the chances are very good that 1 of the QB currently regarded as "top 4" (Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield) will be there when we draft especially as there is an unusually deep FA QB crop this year, and there is also a lot of talent at other positions. 

 

The related question is "what teams will draft QB, and how does FA affect that?"  Everyone likes to speculate "hey, draft high, might as well grab a guy!"  I don't think GMs work that way.  GMs and coaches have a shelf life.  When you have an established QB, you have a window for success and the pressure is on the GM and coach to put pieces around their guy and succeed with him.  That's the time to take a flyer on a talented later-round QB who can sit and develop for a couple years, hoping you've got your Garappolo.  Same thing with everyone liking to speculate this and that and the other high-drafting team will love to trade down...forgetting that high-drafting teams like to have first pick at the other available talent in the draft.

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

We have to get a QB in this draft.

 

Isn't that the thinking that brought us EJ Manuel?

[JMF2006]

20 hours ago, Virgil said:

If all the desired FA QB’s sign elsewhere and if the top 4 QB’s are gone before we can trade up...

 

And without bitching about it or saying “trade up period”......

 

What would you like to see done with our picks?

 

I would want the Bills to hopefully try to trade back more. I wouldn’t care if they traded out of the first round altogether.  

 

Ideally, I’d trade a 1st this year for a 1st next year, to have the ammo for a possible trade up next year. I’d like to take our 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and make it 7 or 8. 

 

Basically, I want to build all the pieces we can and set ourselves up for a QB next year. I believe that quality of starter late first round is similar to second round picks.  We can really build a foundation and put ourselves in position for a QB next year. 

 

If we can fill the other holes with our draft this year, selling the farm to trade up for a QB the following year won’t hurt as much. 

 

My biggest fear to trading up this year is that we will have too many holes to fill and not the picks to fill them with. 

 

I like the idea of trading down and getting more picks.

 

I still think you take a QB later(Rnd 3,4 or 5),like that Ferguson kid.

[Virgil]

59 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Virgil, all respect, I think the scenario is pretty implausible which in part drives the conversation being impossible....

 

It would be very rare for 4 QB to go in the first 20 draft picks.  It happened in 1999 when 5 QB were drafted in the 1st 12 picks (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Culpepper, Cade McNown).  It happened in 2011 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) The results were not encouraging in either case..... 

 

Either way it begs the question "who are the top 4 QB?"  Draft pundits often see it differently than GMs do.  So the chances are very good that 1 of the QB currently regarded as "top 4" (Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield) will be there when we draft especially as there is an unusually deep FA QB crop this year, and there is also a lot of talent at other positions. 

 

The related question is "what teams will draft QB, and how does FA affect that?"  Everyone likes to speculate "hey, draft high, might as well grab a guy!"  I don't think GMs work that way.  GMs and coaches have a shelf life.  When you have an established QB, you have a window for success and the pressure is on the GM and coach to put pieces around their guy and succeed with him.  That's the time to take a flyer on a talented later-round QB who can sit and develop for a couple years, hoping you've got your Garappolo.  Same thing with everyone liking to speculate this and that and the other high-drafting team will love to trade down...forgetting that high-drafting teams like to have first pick at the other available talent in the draft.

 

 

 

 

I think 4 QB’s before 21 is more likely than you think.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are considered to be tier 1 of the class. The rest are players that some here like and could also pan out, but they are tier 2. 

 

The Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos all want QB’s. Minnesota, Giants, and Dolphins are possibilities too. Even with Cousins going to one of those 4 teams, it’s likely that the 4 Tier 1 guys will be gone by 21. Even if that’s someone trading ahead of us at 20 to stop us. 

 

I think it’s very possible that we can’t beat the offers of others teams to trade up or they will want to stay for their guy. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I think 4 QB’s before 21 is more likely than you think.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are considered to be tier 1 of the class. The rest are players that some here like and could also pan out, but they are tier 2. 

 

The Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos all want QB’s. Minnesota, Giants, and Dolphins are possibilities too. Even with Cousins going to one of those 4 teams, it’s likely that the 4 Tier 1 guys will be gone by 21. Even if that’s someone trading ahead of us at 20 to stop us. 

 

I think it’s very possible that we can’t beat the offers of others teams to trade up or they will want to stay for their guy. 

 

Worst possible outcome and reason #1 they should have tanked.

[Punching Bag]

11 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I couldn't care less about the "other holes" in the lineup, when we continue to field sub-par players under center.

 

Then you should have posted this in one of the many other QB threads.

11 hours ago, nucci said:

It would be a complete failure by the FO if they do not acquire QB this season. I feel they should have last draft...to ignore it again would be a mistake...so to answer your question....not getting a QB is not an option

To answer the question not reply in thread.

8 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

 By the way the guys shrieking for QB today will be the same ones carrying torches and pitchforks to OBD when that "sure thing" QB craps out 3 years down the road.  Just like anything else in life it is easy to proclaim yourself an expert when you are not held responsible for bad decisions.  

 

I think if Bills got 2 of the top QBs some would be carrying  torches and pitchforks to OBD and probably selling them to like they do their seats to opposition fans.

[White Linen]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I’m good with all of that. I’m surprised you go OLB first overall, but I can’t argue with the end result. 

 

I think TT is gone and we end up with some other journeyman QB here in his place. 

 

Mayve a bearded guy from Harvard (riot ensues)

 

I’m not talking holes as in lack of quality starters or depth. I think we have over 20 guys who are unrestricted free agents. 

 

Trade #21 for a first next year and a 3rd this year gives us the same number of picks this year and the 2 1sts next year. 

 

So you're filling holes with 3rd round picks while trading our first?  Who is going to give us their first next year and a 3rd this year for pick #21? 

 

Oh never mind....... why do I even engage?

[RochesterRob]

15 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Then you should have posted this in one of the many other QB threads.

To answer the question not reply in thread.

 

I think if Bills got 2 of the top QBs some would be carrying  torches and pitchforks to OBD and probably selling them to like they do their seats to opposition fans.

  Yeah, I could see that.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I think 4 QB’s before 21 is more likely than you think.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are considered to be tier 1 of the class. The rest are players that some here like and could also pan out, but they are tier 2.

 

Just to point out that *we actually don't know that*.  Every year, the pundits opine on who the best QB in the class are.  And every year, NFL GMs see it somewhat differently.

Some QB rise, some QB fall.  Some teams have 2nd round grades on guys pundits (and other teams) may have firsts on.

 

That's my point; you're starting with two premises that are historically very tenuous:

1) that the QB the pundits pronounce as "best QB in the class" in Feb are actually ranked that way on team draft boards

2) that the NFL teams who need or want QB will all choose to enter the "high draft pick" sweepstakes.  Tradeups don't happen that often because they are costly and risky for teams.  Even teams that need QB may prefer to try to snag one in the 2nd or even 3rd round.

 

Then we get to Cousins is not the only FA.  At a minimum, there are Keenum who just came off a career year and contended for an NFC championship,  McCarron, possibly Bridgewater, and some older vets who may be seen as a good "bridge" to add to a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

 

We'll see.

 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[oldmanfan]

Good for thought.  QBs in the championship games this past year included Bortles, Keemun, Foles.  All of whom at one time or another were considered lost causes.

 

Do we really have to give away the farm for a rookie QB?

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well the premise of the thread is that we didn't trade up.

If the Bills don't trade up and they want to get a qb my guess is that they would take Rudolph. He just seems to fit the McBeane profile for a player. Plenty of college experience and a qb who is more of a pocket passer. He is certainly not as exciting of a prospect like some of the other qb prospects. I still believe that the organization wants to move up for their preferred qb (Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen) or whoever is available but if it doesn't work out then I believe they have a fallback position. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

First off let me say Virgil that this is a good thread to start.  Too many, go get "their guy" (which may not even be an option for OBD) opinions.

Anything can happen at draft time.  Like you say it will start with FA.  Let's forget about Cousins signing with the Bills and ask where does he sign.

Most hoping (myself included) he signs with the Broncos or Jets.  Of course this would be great because it takes another team out of the QB draft.  But what if he signs with

Minnesota and Foles stays with Philly.

 

The next question would be, how many teams ahead of us in the draft believe one of the "leftover"  FA QB's is "their guy" that they want to role with instead of a rookie?

If that answer is zero, then OBD has some real worries.  Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater and AJ McCarron are all risky starter moves.

 

I can't comment on non QB drafts yet because until FA is over with I can't tell what our position of need vs remaining draft option players would be available.

It is still (until then) all about the QB.

 

 

I'm reading about a lot of teams that have quality QB's today interested in QB's in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There are many articles about New England, Pittsburg, Miami, New Orleans, Cincinnati all looking for 2nd tier guys.

OBD has to keep this in mind.

 

I think our new front office is smart and looking to work through all these issue, but we need some good luck too.

 

Fair and Evidence is still there that qb evaluation has s significant luck component.  I mean LA may be finally seeing something from Goff with enough weaponry, but In a redo of the draft I’m not convinced that’s not their pick knowing what we do now. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Bills don't trade up and they want to get a qb my guess is that they would take Rudolph. He just seems to fit the McBeane profile for a player. Plenty of college experience and a qb who is more of a pocket passer. He is certainly not as exciting of a prospect like some of the other qb prospects. I still believe that the organization wants to move up for their preferred qb (Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen) or whoever is available but if it doesn't work out then I believe they have a fallback position. 

 

Yeah I think the same too...my preference would be Lamar over Mason though, but I could see how they may choose Mason in that case.  Of course, like you, my real preference is the trade up and I really want Baker but I would also be stoked about any of the others too. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, JohnC said:

If the Bills don't trade up and they want to get a qb my guess is that they would take Rudolph. He just seems to fit the McBeane profile for a player. Plenty of college experience and a qb who is more of a pocket passer. He is certainly not as exciting of a prospect like some of the other qb prospects. I still believe that the organization wants to move up for their preferred qb (Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen) or whoever is available but if it doesn't work out then I believe they have a fallback position. 

Mason Rudolph

STRENGTHS

 Great size and stands tall in the pocket giving him his true height as a passer. Does a good job of letting routes develop and wide receivers clear traffic. Slides in pocket for clean launch points and is rarely a static target for rushers. Keeps eyes trained downfield when sliding around pocket. Got rid of the ball quicker and cut his sacks this year. Willing to throw in front of safeties and attack over top of linebackers in intermediate portion of field. Has steadily improved each season and showed full command of the offense this year. Saw 10 percent of his dropbacks turn into 25-plus yard completions. Puts air under his deep throws and gives receivers a chance to make plays. Reads safeties and moves to his progressions accordingly. Ran zone reads around endzone and finished with 17 rushing touchdowns during career. Willing to drop his head and go get what he needs.

WEAKNESSES

 Over-strides at times. Rarely drives lower body through the throw causing ball to sail and float. May not generate enough velocity to beat ball-hawking corners who strangle passing windows. Field-side outs will be a challenge. Needs throws to stay on schedule. Needs to throw with better timing and placement on comeback and outs. Defaults to off-platform throws when he has time to step and deliver. Ball placement and decision making can run askew when forced to scramble from pocket. Ball will come out wobbly at times. Inexperienced as rollout passer. Benefitted from ball-winning targets downfield. Wasn't asked to get through many progressions in the offense. Has had ball security issues as a starter.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 2-3

Would the  22 be considered an early pick for a 2nd or 3rd rounder? 

 

Josh Rosen 

STRENGTHS

 Tennis prodigy with impeccable footwork and delivery balance. Plays with excellent coordination between eyes and feet. Gets head around quickly on play-fakes. Has experience under center. Anchors in pocket and doesn't creep around needlessly. Trusts his protection and doesn't take eyes of targets when pressure mounts from the edge. Climbs pocket when appropriate. Willing to stand and deliver in face of pressure. Completed 63 percent of his passes when blitzed in 2017. Accuracy totals negatively impacted by 31 receiver drops this year. Holds his water in pocket. Mechanics are terrific. Rarely over-strides and throws with consistently bent front knee. Throwing motion and follow-through are effortless. Extremely confident and intelligent. Throws receivers open. Might be best back shoulder thrower in the game. Shows ability to speed up operation time for move to next level. Very good usage of shoulder fakes and hitches to move defenders or buy additional time for receivers to uncover. Touch passer who can throw feathers when needed.

WEAKNESSES

 Durability is a concern. Carries slight build and has had injury issues dating back to high school. Carries ball low in pocket with slight upward pre-throw hitch. Too casual in pocket set-up. Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent. Refuses easy throws at times. Arm talent and strength are below average. May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws. Poor career deep ball completion rate. Excess air under ball allows challenges. Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top. Needs better anticipation. Poor mobility. Struggles to elude early pressure. Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move. Too much hero ball. Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away. Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 1

Edited February 27, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Mason Rudolph

STRENGTHS

 Great size and stands tall in the pocket giving him his true height as a passer. Does a good job of letting routes develop and wide receivers clear traffic. Slides in pocket for clean launch points and is rarely a static target for rushers. Keeps eyes trained downfield when sliding around pocket. Got rid of the ball quicker and cut his sacks this year. Willing to throw in front of safeties and attack over top of linebackers in intermediate portion of field. Has steadily improved each season and showed full command of the offense this year. Saw 10 percent of his dropbacks turn into 25-plus yard completions. Puts air under his deep throws and gives receivers a chance to make plays. Reads safeties and moves to his progressions accordingly. Ran zone reads around endzone and finished with 17 rushing touchdowns during career. Willing to drop his head and go get what he needs.

WEAKNESSES

 Over-strides at times. Rarely drives lower body through the throw causing ball to sail and float. May not generate enough velocity to beat ball-hawking corners who strangle passing windows. Field-side outs will be a challenge. Needs throws to stay on schedule. Needs to throw with better timing and placement on comeback and outs. Defaults to off-platform throws when he has time to step and deliver. Ball placement and decision making can run askew when forced to scramble from pocket. Ball will come out wobbly at times. Inexperienced as rollout passer. Benefitted from ball-winning targets downfield. Wasn't asked to get through many progressions in the offense. Has had ball security issues as a starter.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 2-3

Would the  22 be considered an early pick for a 2nd or 3rd rounder? 

 

Josh Rosen 

STRENGTHS

 Tennis prodigy with impeccable footwork and delivery balance. Plays with excellent coordination between eyes and feet. Gets head around quickly on play-fakes. Has experience under center. Anchors in pocket and doesn't creep around needlessly. Trusts his protection and doesn't take eyes of targets when pressure mounts from the edge. Climbs pocket when appropriate. Willing to stand and deliver in face of pressure. Completed 63 percent of his passes when blitzed in 2017. Accuracy totals negatively impacted by 31 receiver drops this year. Holds his water in pocket. Mechanics are terrific. Rarely over-strides and throws with consistently bent front knee. Throwing motion and follow-through are effortless. Extremely confident and intelligent. Throws receivers open. Might be best back shoulder thrower in the game. Shows ability to speed up operation time for move to next level. Very good usage of shoulder fakes and hitches to move defenders or buy additional time for receivers to uncover. Touch passer who can throw feathers when needed.

WEAKNESSES

 Durability is a concern. Carries slight build and has had injury issues dating back to high school. Carries ball low in pocket with slight upward pre-throw hitch. Too casual in pocket set-up. Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent. Refuses easy throws at times. Arm talent and strength are below average. May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws. Poor career deep ball completion rate. Excess air under ball allows challenges. Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top. Needs better anticipation. Poor mobility. Struggles to elude early pressure. Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move. Too much hero ball. Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away. Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Round 1

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

[ColoradoBills]

21 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think that most of the "get your guy" or "get any of the most talked about QB's" advocates are living in a fantasy world.  They expect a given QB prospect that has a ceiling of 4,000-4,500 yards, 30 TD's, 10 INT's and down the line will be ignored by virtually every other team in terms of picking when their slot comes up such as with Cleveland, NYG, Jets, or Broncos or that somebody will orchestrate their own trade up such as with Miami, Cincy, or Arizona.   If Rosen, Darnold, etc. are truly high end prospects I think the chances of them slipping away from the top slotted teams or falling out of the top ten are minimal.   

 

Well said and I agree.

One thing I feel is not discussed enough is the fact that Beane and McDermott have to have a FA and Draft QB sheet.

Everyone talks about getting one of the 4-5 top tier guys in the draft.  What if OBD has only 3 picked out as "possible" fits.

Those 3 have to be rated in terms of absolute top worth of pick # or trade value to go get them.

2 of those could go in the first 2 picks and there is a chance that OBD finds itself not even in the running.

 

Same with FA QB's.  Maybe Beane (I'm just speculating) does not want to even think about Bradford because of his injury history.

Who knows what they think about the rest.

 

I really hope it works out and we get one but.................Beane has to be realistic as to the risks!

 

18 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I think 4 QB’s before 21 is more likely than you think.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are considered to be tier 1 of the class. The rest are players that some here like and could also pan out, but they are tier 2. 

 

The Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Broncos all want QB’s. Minnesota, Giants, and Dolphins are possibilities too. Even with Cousins going to one of those 4 teams, it’s likely that the 4 Tier 1 guys will be gone by 21. Even if that’s someone trading ahead of us at 20 to stop us. 

 

I think it’s very possible that we can’t beat the offers of others teams to trade up or they will want to stay for their guy. 

 

Definitely a possibility.

What could be problematic is the tier 2 guys.  Like I said if OBD isn't careful you start to bring in other teams starting in the 2nd round.

 

Beane is going to earn his money this year..............and I'm sure have a lot of restless nights.

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

It might however make sense to attempt to trade back a little bit with one of the first round picks and attempt to pick up a additional pick...while not leaving the 1st round with it.

[ColoradoBills]

15 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Fair and Evidence is still there that qb evaluation has s significant luck component.  I mean LA may be finally seeing something from Goff with enough weaponry, but In a redo of the draft I’m not convinced that’s not their pick knowing what we do now. 

 

When you got a guy like Luck who is a clear #1 overall by everyone, well that's one thing.

It seems to me that this years group can have some good to great QBs but also some potential busts.

This point makes your point all the more relevant.

 

On our own TSW board there seems to be a lot huge discrepancies in a consensus.

[Norcalbillsfan]

I would love to see some speed at LB, and a run stuffer up front.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, JohnC said:

If a qb is rated as a second round pick and you wanted him it would be a  mistake to wait for the second round pick. The Bills have two lower first round picks in their arsenal. If the Bills favor a qb such as Jackson or Rudolph it would be foolish to wait until the second round. I'm not against drafting players where they are slated. However, for the qb position it is better to error drafting too early rather than lose out because you are too late. 

 

Josh Rosen is a sterling prospect. But as your evaluation indicates durability is a big concern. 

To be fair it was NFL.com’s 

draft report.  

 

Interesting read on the durability as many cite it as a reason to not do after some fa’s and to dump current Bills players.  

Agree if he’s a 2 and they get him at 1-22 it’s not an overreach.  

 

 

 

I’m sure some in the media would say it was a reach.  

[ALF]

This would be the draft to try and trade up with picks , maybe a player, even if it's McCoy.

 

Look back at the 2013 draft for QBs   

 

EJ Manuel  at 16 ,  Geno Smith  at 39  , Mike Glennon  at  73 , Matt Barkley  at  98

 

If the Bills can't trade up take a QB at 21 and maybe at 53  , keep Taylor as the bridge. Peterman to PS unless he shows major progress in preseason and can outplay QB at 53

 

My target for a longer term bridge was Alex Smith , to give a drafted QB time to develop or draft another.  So much for that plan.

 

After looking further at the available  FA  QBs , maybe Keenum , doubt Foles will be traded till Wentz is 100%.

 

Keep Taylor or a cheaper bridge till Foles is ready to be traded could be a option.

Edited February 28, 2018 by ALF