Cousins vs. Trade Up

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I know that there are a bunch of threads similar but thought that a poll would help and organize it. 

 

In lieu of the Alex Smith contract it is realistic to think that Cousins is looking at 5 years, $150M and $90M guaranteed (those are the numbers speculated on Twitter). A trade up into the top 5 is going to cost you 21, 22 and either a player or pick. For the sake of this conversation let’s say it’s next year’s 2nd & you get next year’s 3rd from that team. The trade (as an example) would be pick 4 & the Browns 2019 3rd for picks 21,22 & the Bills 2019 2nd. 

 

Which route would you go or would you go in another direction? If it is another direction please lay out what the plan would be and be realistic. Please don’t say that you’d hope Darnold slid to 21 or you’d sign Bradford for $6M. 

 

Trade up is very attractive if that’s what it takes to get one of the big 3.  I however do not feel that it will be that cheap based on previous years.  Bears paid a bounty to go from 3 to 2 last year and probably didn’t even need to do it as SF wasn’t taking Trubisky.  

 

So I voted Cousins because I think it’s going take both our firsts and a second and probably our third or a 4th all this year.  There will be a lot of competition this year if a team shops trading down IMO and someone will over pay to make it happen.  I can’t see Beane doing it the way he covets draft assets.

 

To be clear, even though i prefer Cousins Route, I wouldnt hate the trade up either.  Just think Cousins and keeping all our picks to keep building a playoff roster is more attractive to me.  But either way I would be excited if we traded up or signed Cousins. 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[BillsfanAZ]

15 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I would do what Eagles did. Trade up for a rookie and bring in a bridge vet backup in FA. Bradford or Keenum. I don’t think either one’s market will be that high. Neither is a sure-fire consistent starter for various reasons but can be a short term fix. 

The Eagles gave up a ton to get Wentz but they were able to move up to #2 so they knew they were getting a top QB. I think the best the Bills could do would be to move up to #4 in a trade with the Browns. By then both Darnold and Rosen could be off the board. I am sure the GM's have a better feel for which players teams are interested in. There is no way the Bills should move up in the 1st for any players other than Darnold and Rosen....even then it is a gamble. I think the Bills are better off trying to sign Cousins...if that doesnt work then sign a vet QB while drafting one in the first or second round. The Bills have a lot of needs and cannot afford to give up a ton of draft picks in moving up. 

[bkep32]

i wouldnt not move up in the draft for a QB, we have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds...those guys will be starters that this team needs.  DT, LB, OL, DB.  We can get a FA qb this off season in the 3 vikings, cousins, foles...i would be fine with any of those as a stop gap qb.  We could draft another qb if they wanted 2 younger guys to compete for that 2nd string. 

[RyanC883]

Retain both draft and Salary Cap capital.  While everyone is chasing Cousins, grab Bradford or Teddy.  Take best QB remaining at 21 or 22.  I don't see a "sure-fire" trade-up.  Darnold scares me (turnover machine); Rosen perhaps I'd trade-up for.   But I'd go with a high-upside guy in the 21-22 range.  Let that guy learn from our FA QB.  Use picks and remaining cap space to shore up front 7 and OL, WR.  

[Batman1876]

8 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

Retain both draft and Salary Cap capital.  While everyone is chasing Cousins, grab Bradford or Teddy.  Take best QB remaining at 21 or 22.  I don't see a "sure-fire" trade-up.  Darnold scares me (turnover machine); Rosen perhaps I'd trade-up for.   But I'd go with a high-upside guy in the 21-22 range.  Let that guy learn from our FA QB.  Use picks and remaining cap space to shore up front 7 and OL, WR.  

So take the low risk low likelihood of success route. 

39 minutes ago, bkep32 said:

i wouldnt not move up in the draft for a QB, we have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds...those guys will be starters that this team needs.  DT, LB, OL, DB.  We can get a FA qb this off season in the 3 vikings, cousins, foles...i would be fine with any of those as a stop gap qb.  We could draft another qb if they wanted 2 younger guys to compete for that 2nd string. 

Cousins will get 150 mil over 3 years not a stop gap. Foles is under contract . The Vikings come with heavy injury concerns and are as a result poor stop gaps. Also when will that gap end? When will we be in position to get an Elite prospect ?

[frogger]

I've been thinking about this a bunch over the last 12 hours or so, more than I should.

 

the benefits to staying put are...Buffalo could add a bunch of depth and potential starters, the two firsts should be at worst serviceable players in the NFL, maybe depth, maybe starters, maybe impact starters.  we just have to wait 20 picks before we can take our picks.  So Buffalo spends 29 million per year on a QB, leaving them with maybe 10-15 million (after cutting Tyrod, LORAX et cetera) remaining to sign other free agents and their draft class (five top 100 players in the draft).

 

or they trade 2018's two firsts, 2019's first and potentially another 2nd day pick to move up to get a player, that player will be cheaper than $29 million over the course of the next 5 years and it would allow Buffalo to fill the rest of the needs through free agency, so while the Browns are signing Kirk Cousins, Buffalo could potentially move up to their 2nd first pick,(4th overall) the browns like picks and with their moneyball ways, they might see the value in getting 3 first round picks for one.  But the Browns don't have a need at QB anymore.  So that allows just the Giants to pick ahead of Buffalo.  My concern would be, now that they don't need a QB they'll trade the 1st overall. 

 

 

 

But, I think I am now pro trading up.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

 

I have posted this several times in different threads, but go read the recent si article on Cousins.  He is all about process.  As much as McD if not more so.  It would be a great match of HC and QB.  Plus if you look at the other options, we are the only playoff team in the market for a QB, unless Jacksonville decides to move on from Bortles.  And Cousins has said his main goal is a winning franchise.

 

I just don't think we're the number one destination - but that's just me.  There are winning franchises that need QBs.

 

Denver could turn it around - its a franchise with a tradition of winning. 

Arizona has a new coach and David Johnson. 

NYJ have the money to make some moves in FA, and could add an impact player at 6. 

Minnesota could be in play as well - and they were in the NFC championship game, play in a dome, and have better weapons.

Jax says they're out, but they could just as easily jump in if they can get out of Bortles contract.

Miami could probably make some numbers that work if he wanted to play there with Gase.  

Edited January 31, 2018 by dneveu

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

So take the low risk low likelihood of success route. 

Cousins will get 150 mil over 3 years not a stop gap. Foles is under contract . The Vikings come with heavy injury concerns and are as a result poor stop gaps. Also when will that gap end? When will we be in position to get an Elite prospect ?

 

I think the issue here is that an Elite prospect does not really exist in this draft outside of perhaps 2 QB's (Mayfield and Rosen).  You don't trade-up for a non-elite prospect, you let those guys come to you.  And we have a ton of gaps in our current team that our existing picks and cap money can fill that make a QB like Bradford or Bridgewater very likely to take this team far into the playoffs.  

[BigBuff423]

I chose "Other" because Trade Up is a bit nebulous but I'm assuming Trade Up means into top 5 and that is far too rich in Draft capital for my blood....if this were the 3rd year where Beane an co. had a chance to truly acquire the players they need for McD and the Bills were basically a QB and couple pieces away from being a true contender for the next decade, I'd say trade up. 

 

But, Bills have multiple holes for starters and lacking depth in almost every area. So, I'm with a sign a Vet as insurance and then Draft a guy like Mike White in the late 3rd to be your Rookie. Have said Rookie, ala White, compete with Vet and Peterman and may the best man win. This allows FA to be for trading Tyrod for say, a 4th, and Glenn and Hughes for let's say mid round picks or other valuable depth or role players or a combination thereof, and then using FA money on 2 OL, 2 DT, 1 OLB, 1WR, 1RB, 2CBs. Then, you Draft bascially the same thing but not in that order and actually they would need to Draft 2 or 3 LBs compared to 1 CB. This way, you have given your team a totally new roster within a couple years and by next year if Rookie / Peterman / Vet put out the same productivity as Tyrod did or worse, you have secured a load of talent for when you do need to go up and get "your guy".

 

For full disclosure, I was ALL IN on the Trade Up scenario until Darnold sucked it up in late season, Allen was my guy going into 2017 and we know his year, and Rosen is still so young. Mayfield.....not for me. That means that only guys who have shown they are Seniors, leaders, accurate, good enough arm talent, and production are Rudolph and White. Falk is an intriguing guy, but a 5th Rounder to me. And, if I have to essentially take a guy I don't absolutely LOVE in the Draft, I'm not using a 1st Round pick on him. 

 

Rosen is too inexperienced despite his talent, Darnold has some giant warts, and Allen can't seem to be consistent enough for me to fall "in-love" with my decision to Draft him early. These are the reasons I chose, "Other". And Cousins, takes all the Cap space, not allowing the team to really address a couple key areas in FA - and I don't mean big name, big money FAs - just that the Bills need so many of them. 

 

For the record I'd take Andrew Norwell for OG, Bromley for DT, and then Bennie Logan for DT, Bodine for C,  Okafor DE, Paul Richardson WR, Isaiah Crowell for RB, Tahir Whitehead for OLB, Nevin Lawson Detroit and Kyle Fuller Chicago for CBs. 

[papazoid]

A bird in the hand is worth 3 in the bush

 

why would we want to overpay a proven Top 10-15 NFL QB when we can roll the dice and save a bunch of money on an unproven rookie ?? (sarcasm alert)

Edited January 31, 2018 by papazoid

[Kirby Jackson]

21 minutes ago, papazoid said:

A bird in the hand is worth 3 in the bush

 

why would we want to overpay a proven Top 10-15 NFL QB when we can roll the dice and save a bunch of money on an unproven rookie ?? (sarcasm alert)

You could end up with a superior player at a fraction of the cost. Deshaun Watson, as an example, is better than Cousins right now. He is on a 4 year deal worth $13,854,281 TOTAL. That is the guaranteed amount as well and they have a 5th year option. Cousins is going to get 5 years, $150M with $90M guaranteed.  That is why the majority (albeit a small one) are in favor of the trade up.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You could end up with a superior player at a fraction of the cost. Deshaun Watson, as an example, is better than Cousins right now. He is on a 4 year deal worth $13,854,281 TOTAL. That is the guaranteed amount as well and they have a 5th year option. Cousins is going to get 5 years, $150M with $90M guaranteed.  That is why the majority (albeit a small one) are in favor of the trade up.

A plurality, not a majority. 

[blacklabel]

They don't have the money to even think about making an offer for Cousins. Even if they did I don't know that this regime would pony up the huge deal he's going to get, likely from Denver.

 

If they were to trade up I think the following things would have to fall in place:

 

-They're very active in free agency and add/replace to the positions of need on this team (pick any one, they could use reinforcements everywhere). 

-A "too good to say no" type of trade offer comes across their table. We know they value draft picks and we know they'd prefer to build this team through the draft. 

 

So, I think it'd have to be a real specific situation for them to make a big move up the board in the first round. I could be wrong though, I mean, I don't think any of us expected them to trade away Watkins and Darby last year, so, as always, anything can happen but IMO I believe that they're gonna need some kind of "stars aligned" situation in order to make a move up the board.

[RochesterRob]

58 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I think the issue here is that an Elite prospect does not really exist in this draft outside of perhaps 2 QB's (Mayfield and Rosen).  You don't trade-up for a non-elite prospect, you let those guys come to you.  And we have a ton of gaps in our current team that our existing picks and cap money can fill that make a QB like Bradford or Bridgewater very likely to take this team far into the playoffs.  

  I don't think that an elite prospect exists at all at least to this point and don't expect that to change going into the draft.  I just see 4 guys who have a lot of potential and will have a lot to prove on the pro level.  I don't think any of the 4 are 100 percent pro ready as of today.  As Wayne Arnold suggested I think the most realistic move may be up to the mid-teens if a guy that our FO had highly rated falls.  

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Trade up is very attractive if that’s what it takes to get one of the big 3.  I however do not feel that it will be that cheap based on previous years.  Bears paid a bounty to go from 3 to 2 last year and probably didn’t even need to do it as SF wasn’t taking Trubisky.  

 

So I voted Cousins because I think it’s going take both our firsts and a second and probably our third or a 4th all this year.  There will be a lot of competition this year if a team shops trading down IMO and someone will over pay to make it happen.  I can’t see Beane doing it the way he covets draft assets.

 

To be clear, even though i prefer Cousins Route, I wouldnt hate the trade up either.  Just think Cousins and keeping all our picks to keep building a playoff roster is more attractive to me.  But either way I would be excited if we traded up or signed Cousins. 

The problem with signing Cousins is that his contract will limit your options when trying to sign some free agents. From a cap standpoint it would be better to deal picks to get a high end prospect because if that prospect develops into a franchise qb you will have a number of years on his rookie deal where you will have more cap and player flexibility. Russell Wilson on his original deal is the ideal situation for us. 

 

I'm a Lamar Jackson fan. I don't consider him to be the best qb prospect in this draft but if the team keeps its picks and decides to draft him or Rudolph with one one their first round picks then that would be a reasonable option to take. 

 

There is no one route to take that is the best approach. More often than not what you want to do and what you can do don't always fall into place. My one uncompromising demand is that one way or another this franchise needs to come away with a good qb prospect in this draft. 

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A plurality, not a majority. 

Touché 

[hemma]

Need to trade up this year.  Working with 2 #1's may be the most bullets we'll have for years.

I really do believe McDermott will continue to process the **** out of even a mediocre team and keep us in the 15-20 range forever.

 

Need to go for our QB now, not later.

[Mat68]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

Lots of horrible GM’s on this board. Give up everything for a gamble on a rookie qb?  Nah. 

I disagree.  Eagles, Rams and Texans seem to have found franchise Qbs.  So if the best prospects are going top 10 why wouldnt you use some of the assests gained to get one of those guys? Its not the Saints or Vikings trading the farm for 1 player.  Buffalo could move up by packaging 21,22 and the 2nd from La to get a caliber and potenial at Qb that Buffalo has not had since Kelly.  That may seem steep to you but that still leave Buffalo with a full compliment of picks for 2018 and 2019.  Getting a franchise Qb should be the top focus this off season.  

[DCOrange]

It probably doesn't mean anything, but apparently Colin Cowherd said on his radio show that he's being told Kirk Cousins is close to a deal with the Broncos (yes I know he's under contract for another month still).

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

Good to see so many people embracing the Bills actually being "all-in" on a QB on draft day for the first time in their history.

 

If Jesus tells Cousins ala Reggie White to take a huge discount to be with McD I could deal with that......but I am all about trading up to get a QB with more potential than him.

 

Tyrod can be the bridge.

17 minutes ago, hemma said:

Need to trade up this year.  Working with 2 #1's may be the most bullets we'll have for years.

I really do believe McDermott will continue to process the **** out of even a mediocre team and keep us in the 15-20 range forever.

 

Need to go for our QB now, not later.

 

 

I think it's even more about the volume of good QB prospects than whether the Bills will have more bullets in the future.......but agreed.   It's time.