Wyoming’s Josh Allen

[RichardLee]

I haven't seen much on the Wall regarding Josh Allen, who - seemingly - could be drafted with a reasonable trade up.

 

While a bit raw for the NFL, he looks impressive with tremendous potential. His natural abilities are phenomenal and his downsides seem coachable to me.  He could be developed over a year or two, especially if we landed Alex Smith.

 

What do you college football guys think?

Edited January 25, 2018 by RichardLee

[GunnerBill]

There is plenty of talk about him.  I'd be horrified by picking him in the 1st.  3rd round talent in a 1st round body.  

[Billsfansinceday1]

It sounds like he is really struggling with his accuracy at the Senior Bowl.  I really don't want to bring in a long term project with our 1st round pick.  3rd round...absolutely.

[JaCrispy]

Josh Allen is EJ Manuel with a stronger arm imo...no thanks

Edited January 25, 2018 by JaCrispy

[DCOrange]

If we were already picking in the top 10, I’d love to take him, but I think he’s too risky for me to justify trading up

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, Billsfansinceday1 said:

It sounds like he is really struggling with his accuracy at the Senior Bowl.  I really don't want to bring in a long term project with our 1st round pick.  3rd round...absolutely.

He was up and down at the beginning like most QBs, but reports are he is getting better each practice.

[Bangarang]

I think he sucks. He has great physical tools and that’s really it. His accuracy is really concerning and not something I see ever being fixed. 

[VirginiaMike]

I think teams get enamored with a QBs physical skills (arm & legs) and forget to look at the harder to measure skills such and leadership.   Josh Allen did not lead his team to anything.  

Leadership is one of the things I like about Baker Mayfield - it looked like he always believed he could lead his team to success and instilled that in his team.  

[LEBills]

4 minutes ago, VirginiaMike said:

I think teams get enamored with a QBs physical skills (arm & legs) and forget to look at the harder to measure skills such and leadership.   Josh Allen did not lead his team to anything.  

Leadership is one of the things I like about Baker Mayfield - it looked like he always believed he could lead his team to success and instilled that in his team.  

Leadership is one thing I don’t think you can knock him on. He was a leader on his team this year and the team immediately fell apart the few games he was injured. Despite his injury, he came back and played in his bowl game. 

[LeGOATski]

I wouldn't trade up for him. If he falls to one of our picks and the Bills like him, then they should definitely take him there. Don't mess around.

 

It will be interesting to see if a Bills/Colts trade is worked out on draft day.

[TakeYouToTasker]

There are multiple Allen threads in the College Football sub-forum linked at the top of The Stadium Wall.

[Woodman19]

27 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Leadership is one thing I don’t think you can knock him on. He was a leader on his team this year and the team immediately fell apart the few games he was injured. Despite his injury, he came back and played in his bowl game. 

Tebow oozed leadership but it didn't help him throw better.

[racketmaster]

I am coming around on Allen. He really did not have much of a supporting cast (constant pressure, no running game and young wrs). Wyoming is not a great football program and they have actually won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons with Allen as a starter. That might not sound like a lot but Wyoming won only 4-5-4-2 games in the 4 seasons prior to Allen starting. It looks like Allen sometimes tries to do too much and he often has to on an offense lacking talent. There are a lot of big drops from watching his games. Down 21-3 against Iowa, Allen avoids rushes and steps up in pocket throwing a perfect strike 40 yards downfield and his wr bobbles the ball in the endzone before going out of bounds. It was an easy catch and there were a few others. The first TD pass he made in the Central Michigan game was an NFL level throw and had velocity that maybe only Newton and Stafford could match. He regularly shakes off would be tacklers which reminds me of Big Ben. Allen is still raw but he is young and has not been groomed to be a qb since middle school like many other top qbs. Allen's skill set is extremely rare and it perfectly matches Buffalo (Big, strong arm, large hands) and he comes from a small rural area and appears to have an excellent work ethic and attitude. Let him sit for a year and develop while putting in a veteran and maybe we have a top qb in a few years. 

 

Full disclosure, I also supported taking EJ Manuel over the rest of the crop of qbs in 2013. He and Glennon were the only two that appeared to have NFL level physical traits and that seems to have been true but that was still not enough to make them good quarterbacks. It obviously, takes more to be a franchise qb than just the physical traits. There are exceptions to the rule but they are outliers for a reason. The odds are not very good for most any of the college qbs becoming a franchise guy, but it becomes much more difficult when a qb has to overcome lack of arm strength, height, weight, hand size, agility, speed etc. Accuracy, anticipation, preparation, mental toughness etc. can overcome some physical limitations but it becomes tougher to do. Allen checks most every physical trait and he appears to be good in the intangibles department. He has work to do with mechanics and accuracy. BUt i do think he is more accurate than the numbers due to his lack of talent at the wr position and poor o-line play. So many times he is running for his life and throwing balls out of bounds or wrs are dropping catchable passes. If he could clean things up and be developed he could be "elite". I don't mind taking a chance on elite skills if the player has the desire to work hard and I think Allen will. 

[billieve420]

There was word this is the type of QB new Cleveland GM John Dorsey likes. Maybe they trade the 1st pick to someone who wants Rosen or Darnold. Then depending on the draft pick they receive can take him there or at #4.

Edited January 25, 2018 by billieve420

[jr1]

RJ White has the Bills taking allen in his mock draft https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-mock-draft-giants-take-saquon-barkley-as-qbs-become-an-afterthought/

[KGun12TD]

Its a bad sign when a QB has to acknowledge his "accuracy" problems. UGh! Please let the Browns take him 1st overall.

Edited January 25, 2018 by KGun12TD

[jrober38]

He's terrible.

Zero accuracy. Horrible mechanics and footwork. 

 

Guys like Allen never succeed in the NFL. 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

I am coming around on Allen. He really did not have much of a supporting cast (constant pressure, no running game and young wrs). Wyoming is not a great football program and they have actually won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons with Allen as a starter. That might not sound like a lot but Wyoming won only 4-5-4-2 games in the 4 seasons prior to Allen starting. It looks like Allen sometimes tries to do too much and he often has to on an offense lacking talent. There are a lot of big drops from watching his games. Down 21-3 against Iowa, Allen avoids rushes and steps up in pocket throwing a perfect strike 40 yards downfield and his wr bobbles the ball in the endzone before going out of bounds. It was an easy catch and there were a few others. The first TD pass he made in the Central Michigan game was an NFL level throw and had velocity that maybe only Newton and Stafford could match. He regularly shakes off would be tacklers which reminds me of Big Ben. Allen is still raw but he is young and has not been groomed to be a qb since middle school like many other top qbs. Allen's skill set is extremely rare and it perfectly matches Buffalo (Big, strong arm, large hands) and he comes from a small rural area and appears to have an excellent work ethic and attitude. Let him sit for a year and develop while putting in a veteran and maybe we have a top qb in a few years. 

 

Full disclosure, I also supported taking EJ Manuel over the rest of the crop of qbs in 2013. He and Glennon were the only two that appeared to have NFL level physical traits and that seems to have been true but that was still not enough to make them good quarterbacks. It obviously, takes more to be a franchise qb than just the physical traits. There are exceptions to the rule but they are outliers for a reason. The odds are not very good for most any of the college qbs becoming a franchise guy, but it becomes much more difficult when a qb has to overcome lack of arm strength, height, weight, hand size, agility, speed etc. Accuracy, anticipation, preparation, mental toughness etc. can overcome some physical limitations but it becomes tougher to do. Allen checks most every physical trait and he appears to be good in the intangibles department. He has work to do with mechanics and accuracy. BUt i do think he is more accurate than the numbers due to his lack of talent at the wr position and poor o-line play. So many times he is running for his life and throwing balls out of bounds or wrs are dropping catchable passes. If he could clean things up and be developed he could be "elite". I don't mind taking a chance on elite skills if the player has the desire to work hard and I think Allen will. 

It certainly didn't help EJ that he had no QB coach in his first NFL season. Nor did he have a veteran QB on the roster to learn from and in fact, the only teacher he had was Nathaniel Hackett as his OC was someone who had never been an NFL OC in the past. Not to mention the offensive line the kid started behind was one of the worst in the NFL. I firmly believe that coaching is everything and EJ was put in a situation that was almost imposable for him to achieve good success.

 

As far as Allen goes it's his lack of top accuracy to around 50% and his low TD to INT ratio that worries me. Some scouts love the guy and think he is a top ten pick because of his physical traits and other say he is a 2nd to 3rd round pick because of his inaccuracy. Gonna be interesting to see what everyone says after the senior bowl and combine. 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Nihilarian

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, Woodman19 said:

Tebow oozed leadership but it didn't help him throw better.

Didn’t say it did, did I?

[DCOrange]

19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

He's terrible.

Zero accuracy. Horrible mechanics and footwork. 

 

Guys like Allen never succeed in the NFL. 

 

Not really true, especially if you think the issue is more footwork related rather than simply not having a sense of how to lead WRs (which is debatable, but seems that the leading theory right now is that if you can fix Allen's footwork, the accuracy will come).

 

Matt Stafford, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, and Cam Newton are four guys that weren't accurate early on but made significant improvements and went on to have pretty good careers. I think we can all agree that Stafford, Cam, and Smith have become above-average QBs, and while Cutler has turned into a meme, he was roughly an above average starter for nearly a decade. And 3 of the 4 don't have the physical tools that Allen does.

 

Allen certainly seems to be the riskiest of the 1st round QBs (assuming teams aren't super worried about Rosen's injury history), but he has incredible potential and it's not unheard of for players to improve their accuracy in the NFL.

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

It certainly didn't help EJ that he had no QB coach in his first NFL season. Nor did he have a veteran QB on the roster to learn from and in fact, the only teacher he had was Nathaniel Hackett as his OC was someone who had never been an NFL OC in the past. Not to mention the offensive line the kid started behind was one of the worst in the NFL. I firmly believe that coaching is everything and EJ was put in a situation that was almost imposable for him to achieve good success.

 

As far as Allen goes it's his lack of top accuracy to around 50% and his low TD to INT ratio that worries me. Some scouts love the guy and think he is a top ten pick because of his physical traits and other say he is a 2nd to 3rd round pick because of his inaccuracy. Gonna be interesting to see what everyone says after the senior bowl and combine. 

 

 

 

QBs don't learn how to pass accurately at the NFL level.

 

Accuracy can be refined to some degree, but inaccurate QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. 

 

When a scouting report openly questions a player's passing, stay far, far away. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by jrober38

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I feel like when his "positives" largely include excuses about Wyoming and accuracy and focus on prototypical size, yeah... no thanks.  

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I feel like when his "positives" largely include excuses about Wyoming and accuracy and focus on prototypical size, yeah... no thanks.  

 

Exactly.

 

Every year scouts get all fired up about the guys who can throw the ball a mile as if that is any sort of indicator of success at the NFL level.

 

Reality is that all of the top QBs in the NFL are guys with top notch accuracy. Arm strength is just a bonus. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by jrober38

[JohnBonhamRocks]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Exactly.

 

Every year scouts get all fired up about the guys who can throw the ball a mile as if that is any sort of indicator of success at the NFL level.

 

Reality is that all of the top QBs in the NFL are guys with top notch accuracy and adequate arms. 

 

On that point, I feel like it would be more likely that a QB could come into the league and improve his arm strength than improve his accuracy. 

[xxxxxxxx]

Those who are enamored have a pretty conservative idea of what elite traits entail. If your accuracy stinks in college, your odds of immediately improving it in the NFL where the throwing windows are tighter are insanely low. Like EJ, dude will be an overthrow machine. He seems like the kind of prospect that could benefit from years of backup duty, like EJ or Keenum, before emerging as a starter for the team that did not initially draft him. 

 

We would have been better off just taki g Mahomes last year.

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, MURPHD6 said:

Those who are enamored have a pretty conservative idea of what elite traits entail. If your accuracy stinks in college, your odds of immediately improving it in the NFL where the throwing windows are tighter are insanely low. Like EJ, dude will be an overthrow machine. He seems like the kind of prospect that could benefit from years of backup duty, like EJ or Keenum, before emerging as a starter for the team that did not initially draft him. 

 

We would have been better off just taki g Mahomes last year.

This I agree with. I'd take Mahomes over any of the QBs in this year's class honestly.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I am coming around on Allen. He really did not have much of a supporting cast (constant pressure, no running game and young wrs). Wyoming is not a great football program and they have actually won 8 games each of the last 2 seasons with Allen as a starter. That might not sound like a lot but Wyoming won only 4-5-4-2 games in the 4 seasons prior to Allen starting. It looks like Allen sometimes tries to do too much and he often has to on an offense lacking talent. There are a lot of big drops from watching his games. Down 21-3 against Iowa, Allen avoids rushes and steps up in pocket throwing a perfect strike 40 yards downfield and his wr bobbles the ball in the endzone before going out of bounds. It was an easy catch and there were a few others. The first TD pass he made in the Central Michigan game was an NFL level throw and had velocity that maybe only Newton and Stafford could match. He regularly shakes off would be tacklers which reminds me of Big Ben. Allen is still raw but he is young and has not been groomed to be a qb since middle school like many other top qbs. Allen's skill set is extremely rare and it perfectly matches Buffalo (Big, strong arm, large hands) and he comes from a small rural area and appears to have an excellent work ethic and attitude. Let him sit for a year and develop while putting in a veteran and maybe we have a top qb in a few years. 

 

Full disclosure, I also supported taking EJ Manuel over the rest of the crop of qbs in 2013. He and Glennon were the only two that appeared to have NFL level physical traits and that seems to have been true but that was still not enough to make them good quarterbacks. It obviously, takes more to be a franchise qb than just the physical traits. There are exceptions to the rule but they are outliers for a reason. The odds are not very good for most any of the college qbs becoming a franchise guy, but it becomes much more difficult when a qb has to overcome lack of arm strength, height, weight, hand size, agility, speed etc. Accuracy, anticipation, preparation, mental toughness etc. can overcome some physical limitations but it becomes tougher to do. Allen checks most every physical trait and he appears to be good in the intangibles department. He has work to do with mechanics and accuracy. BUt i do think he is more accurate than the numbers due to his lack of talent at the wr position and poor o-line play. So many times he is running for his life and throwing balls out of bounds or wrs are dropping catchable passes. If he could clean things up and be developed he could be "elite". I don't mind taking a chance on elite skills if the player has the desire to work hard and I think Allen will. 

Good post. I agree about the team around him. He didn't play for a good program.

 

PS - Excellent breakdown from the main Jets fan forum site: 

 

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/1/16/16882448/scouting-the-2018-nfl-draft-josh-allen-qb-quarterback-wyoming-new-york-jets

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by dave mcbride

[yungmack]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

There is plenty of talk about him.  I'd be horrified by picking him in the 1st.  3rd round talent in a 1st round body.  

If you would be horrified taking him in the first, why would you take him at all? 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, yungmack said:

If you would be horrified taking him in the first, why would you take him at all? 

 

I probably wouldn't but I can see why given the physical tools someone would take a flier late 3rd (maybe a comp pick) or thereafter.  

[YoloinOhio]

What I gather on Josh Allen is that for some reason there are people desperate for him to be good. It’s like parents desperate to see their kid ride a bike without training wheels.  It’s in the media and on draft twitter. They are like “oooohh there it is! That’s the throw we need! We KNEW he could do it” Ignoring the 57 times before that he crashed into a tree. 

[Lofton80]

He will go in in the top 5. He has the best arm in the draft. He will struggle like any other rookie. Good coaching and our strong running game would be perfect for him. 

We have no chance at him but he will be a star. Talent wins out in the NFL.  

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Lofton80 said:

He will go in in the top 5. He has the best arm in the draft. He will struggle like any other rookie. Good coaching and our strong running game would be perfect for him. 

We have no chance at him but he will be a star. Talent wins out in the NFL.  

 

Tell that to Jamarcus Russell, JP Losman, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Akili Smith, etc, etc, etc. 

 

How far you can throw a football or how fast you can run have no correlation to being a successful NFL QB.

 

Accuracy is, and always will be the most important trait, and he simply doesn't have it. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

What I gather on Josh Allen is that for some reason there are people desperate for him to be good. It’s like parents desperate to see their kid ride a bike without training wheels.  It’s in the media and on draft twitter. They are like “oooohh there it is! That’s the throw we need! We KNEW he could do it” Ignoring the 57 times before that he crashed into a tree. 

 

With Lamar Jackson it's the exact opposite. And I know there are people here who have good reasons to not like Jackson, which is fine, but he's so much further along as a prospect than Allen and yet I can pretty much guarantee he will get drafted lower.

[starrymessenger]

If you take a negative view he's a bit reminiscent of Losman. Athletic with a huge arm. Also, they are both good long ball throwers (going from memory I believe Allen's completion % and accuracy is relatively good on long throws). I think we all remember the difficulty Losman had in the short passing game, how frustrating it was when he could not even hit a back ten yards away with a screen pass. Allen has the same problem. The root of the problem in both cases is poor footwork. Those "easy" passes are actually quite difficult to complete if you've not got your footwork down. We often saw some of the same with EJ and even Tyrod. 

With both Allen and Losman another underlying cause of the bad mechanics in the short and intermediate passing game is skittishness in the pocket resulting from poor awareness and pocket presence when under pressure. Neither guy seems to display (at least consistently) the kind of feel for the pocket that enables good pocket passers to buy time by stepping up or making sometimes small lateral movements. They bail way too early. Sure it's impressive when Allen once on the run breaks tackles or carries a linebacker for 10 yards on his back. But the obvious comeback is "Dude, why didn't you just step up".

In fairness to Allen the offence he led featured predominately pro concepts. It's much harder to a have a good completion percentage operating in that kind of O compared with a college spread. It's also true that he didn't have much help and when you give Allen a clean pocket and a little time to set up properly his mechanics are actually quite good. It's in the short game and when he gets pressure that things can fall apart.

Whoever drafts him, especially if high in the first, had better be very confident that his Losmanesque tendencies are correctable with coaching and reps. If not he's really not going to be good. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by starrymessenger

[YoloinOhio]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

With Lamar Jackson it's the exact opposite. And I know there are people here who have good reasons to not like Jackson, which is fine, but he's so much further along as a prospect than Allen and yet I can pretty much guarantee he will get drafted lower.

 Confirmation bias

[starrymessenger]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 Confirmation bias

 

An astute observation IMO.

[jrober38]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

With Lamar Jackson it's the exact opposite. And I know there are people here who have good reasons to not like Jackson, which is fine, but he's so much further along as a prospect than Allen and yet I can pretty much guarantee he will get drafted lower.

 

If you put Josh Allen's skill set in Baker Mayfield's body, he's a 5th-7th round pick. Maybe an UDFA. 

 

Every year the guys who "LOOK" like NFL QBs (Manuel, Gabbert, Locker, etc) get drafted 3-4 round higher than they should. It's as if the scouts just completely disregard the game tape and only focus on height, weight, arm strength. 

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

With Lamar Jackson it's the exact opposite. And I know there are people here who have good reasons to not like Jackson, which is fine, but he's so much further along as a prospect than Allen and yet I can pretty much guarantee he will get drafted lower.

As a fan of both Allen and Lamar, I really don't understand how someone that likes Allen can possibly dislike Lamar. I can understand people that like Lamar might not like Allen, but the inverse just doesn't make any sense.

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you put Josh Allen's skill set in Baker Mayfield's body, he's a 5th-7th round pick. Maybe an UDFA. 

 

Every year the guys who "LOOK" like NFL QBs (Manuel, Gabbert, Locker, etc) get drafted 3-4 round higher than they should. It's as if the scouts just completely disregard the game tape and only focus on height, weight, arm strength. 

 

If you put Mayfield's skillset in Josh Allen's body you have the consensus # 1 pick overall and it's not even close. 

[jrober38]

Just now, starrymessenger said:

 

If you put Mayfield's skillset in Josh Allen's body you have the consensus # 1 pick overall and it's not even close. 

 

Yup.

 

Is 4 inches and 15-20 pounds really worth that much of a swing?

 

I don't think so. 

 

Players need to be evaluated by how they perform on the field, and how it translates to the NFL game. Height, weight and arm strength (a player needs enough of an arm but you don't need a cannon) shouldn't matter nearly as much as they do.