WEEK 1: ALL 22 REVIEW - O LINE PASS PROT /QB UNFORCED ERRORS

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/36 or 19% In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 19% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Jets.

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 29/36 or 81%. In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 81% of the time.

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 4/36 or 11% . Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 4 unforced errors by my count. Which is under the danger line.

BOTTOM LINE


CORDY GLENN – Cordy Glenn was not his old dominant self but he was ok. He gave up a pressure in Q1 and was rotated out for Dawkins several times.

DION DAWKINS - was ok rotating in at LT for Glenn a few times. Did give up a pressure in Q1 but for a rookie debut coming off bench he did as well as could have been expected

INCOGNITO SOLID – Richie was his usual stout self in pass protect.

ERIC WOOD – up and down. He was generally solid. He did a good job picking up a stunt in q1 but on the other hand missed a stunt in Q2.

JOHN MILLER SHAKY- Miller had a really rough day. Of the 7 O Line breakdowns he was responsible for 3. He and Wood did a good job picking up a stunt in q1.. however.. he was manhandled by Leonard Williams several times. Granted Williams is an elite DT .. but Miller was pretty much dominated.

Q1 15:00 – Miller whiffs on 99 first play of game. Gives up pressure





Q2- 6:34 – Miller manhandled by 92 again

 

JORDAN MILLS – had a really nice day. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.




O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES

CORDY GLENN - B-
DION DAWKINS – B-
RICHIE INCOGNITO – B+
ERIC WOOD - B
JOHN MILLER - D
JORDAN MILLS - A

TYROD GOALLINE ERRORS - Of the 4 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 2 of them came in the first quarter on back to back plays in the redzone. If the Bills punch it in here for 7 the Jets are likely demoralized and the route is on. These 2 back to back mistakes were the only real stains on an otherwise solid day from TT

POOR THROWS
Q1 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Clay on the goalline and the DE clearly sniffs it out.. stalls his rush and jumps up to bat the ball down. TT needs to learn to not stare down here.

 

Q1 9:02 – UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind to Clay on the goalline causing an INT. As the Gif shows.. Clay is open right over the middle when TT hits his drop. TT has a clean pocket and should have let it go right then.. but for some reason he drifts left and by the time he throws to Clay the safety comes up and smacks him in the back causing an INT




TYROD POSITIVES -

MIDDLE/TIGHT END - TT continued the trend of effectively using the middle of the field (carrying that over from the last few games of ’16). His footwork was also better for the most part (barring a few exceptions) and he was generally getting the ball out on time. With that being said..the Jets LBs and DBs really struggled covering the short middle area and he didn’t really have to fit many of these throws into tight windows. See example below.. Matthews is wide open here.. not exactly a high degree of difficulty here

 

 

 

However.. still progress here with slants and crossing routes over the middle. The next step will be to see him complete some deep seam routes down the middle (none really attempted against Jets)

 

MOBILITY - TT generally made sound decisions to tuck and run .. picking up a few key first downs. His play at the end of Q1 (shown below) where he escapes pressure and Houdinis a throw to Matthews for a first down was simply incredible. Not many QBs have the athleticism to pull that off.

STANDING IN POCKET TAKING HIT AND DELIVERING - TT has been criticized for not standing tall in the pocket, delivering a strike and taking a hit. In the play below he hangs tough, delivers to Clay and gets popped. I hope to see more of this going forward

GAME SUMMARY
Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Against the Jets they threw 25 times in the first half alone and 36 times overall for the game. So in this game they overcame the 30+ attempts per game curse.. let's hope that is a trend that continues. Also of note is that the assumption was that TT would predominantly be under center in this offense.. for week 1 it was the opposite.. he was in Shotgun 23 out of 36 snaps.

 

Outside of John Miller the O Line had a reasonably solid day .. giving TT time to throw on 81% of his dropbacks. TT did a decent job going over his reads and didn’t really leave too much on the table. His WR’s were blanketed on the deep ball attempts and in general had trouble getting any separation down the field. Great job by Dennison of carving up the middle of the field and taking advantage of what the Jets were giving them and the weakness of them defending the middle.
__ _____


POSITIVES -

 

JORDAN MILLS - i'll admit I've been a Mills basher after his performance in '16.. however.. he was very very solid against the Jets. If he can play at that level all year this offense has a shot to be decent.

 

QUICK GAME PROGRESS CONTINUES - TT is showing signs of being able to hit his drop and get the ball out quickly

.

MOBILITY - TTs mobility can be a blessing and a curse.. but at the end of the day his ability to scramble, buy time and run if necessary (when properly implemented) was an asset today.

 

MOVING THE CHAINS – TT did something he hasn’t necessarily done well in the past.. move the chains. TT consistently put the Bills in good situations and executed on getting first downs and controlling the ball.


NEGATIVES

 

JOHN MILLER - granted Miller was lined up against a beast in Leonard Williams.. but ouch.. he got tossed around pretty bad Sunday. I'm really hoping this was more of a case of Leonard Williams and less Miller's decline in play. Let's hope he rebounds .. because the alternative ( Ducassse) is not pretty.

 

DEEP BALL - hard to pin this on Taylor .. more on the WRs not getting behind the D.. but

 

RED ZONE - TT’s 2 unforced errors on the first drive had a major impact on the flow of the 1st half. In looking back at older posts this seems to be a trend .. where he commits most of his errors in Q1 but then settles down during the game.

 

 

SIGNIFICANT PLAYS

 

Q1 15:00 - Miller whiffs on 99 gives up pressure

 

q1 14:18- Wood and Miller do a great job picking up a stunt allowing TT completion over the middle

 

q1 13:25 - O'Leary slips on out route .. TT good throw but slip causes incompletion

 

q1 - 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs out route to Clay and DE jumps up and bats it down

 

q1 9:02 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind Clay on goalline causing INT

 

q1 5:39 - Cordy glen beaten to the inside results in scramble/sack

 

q1 1:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws high and behind Clay on an open in route

 

q1 1:22 - Dawkins beaten to outside..gives up pressure.. TT has incredible escape and makes completion to Matthews

 

q2 6:34 - John Miller run over by 92 ... TT delivers ball to Clay and takes a hit

 

q2 4:51 - John Miller manhandled by 92 again

 

q2 - :57 - Clay drops out route

 

q2 :51 - Wood doesn't pick up a stunt .. SACK

 

q3 11:27 - Deep ball to Matthews is good throw but CB has good coverage

 

q3 8:36 - 5 Step drop, nice throw to Matthews over the middle

 

q4 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws a screen pass at Jordan Mills' feet.. just a plain old dud throw

Edited September 13, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Gugny]

These have become my favorite postgame posts. Thanks for the work you put into them.

[mannc]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

[Bocephuz]

These have become my favorite postgame posts. Thanks for the work you put into them.

 

thanks.. they take a while to create. .glad some people find them useful

[Big C]

Thanks for reviving this series. Good to hear Mills looked alright in pass pro.

 

One thing I will say is in your frame you show a Matthews "wide open," which he is. However, to me i also looks like Tyrod led him in the right direction to help him break free for that big time YAC. This is something TT detractors point to as a weakness, but it looked like a perfect ball. He throws it to Matthews' right, you get a PBU, you throw it to his chest, he likely gets tackled quickly. But throwing to his left side allows him to turn a little and reach, while the LB dives toward him, ultimately missing the tackle and sends Matthews on a long run.

[PolishDave]

Great work Bo!

[Bocephuz]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

 

definitely not routine. it would have been routine if TT would have thrown it a second earlier.

Thanks for reviving this series. Good to hear Mills looked alright in pass pro.

 

One thing I will say is in your frame you show a Matthews "wide open," which he is. However, to me i also looks like Tyrod led him in the right direction to help him break free for that big time YAC. This is something TT detractors point to as a weakness, but it looked like a perfect ball. He throws it to Matthews' right, you get a PBU, you throw it to his chest, he likely gets tackled quickly. But throwing to his left side allows him to turn a little and reach, while the LB dives toward him, ultimately missing the tackle and sends Matthews on a long run.

 

great point.. yes.. TT did lead him allowing YAC. Hopefully that improves this year as we go.

[Kelly the Dog]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

[dave mcbride]

 

definitely not routine. it would have been routine if TT would have thrown it a second earlier.

 

great point.. yes.. TT did lead him allowing YAC. Hopefully that improves this year as we go.

Great stuff, and thanks. I certainly don't think it was a perfect throw by any means, but it's a catchable ball for a good NFL receiver. It may be the case that he threw it slightly behind to prevent the pick too. In any event, I think you're probably right in calling it an error, but it's a minor one given that a lot of catches that receivers make all of the time aren't 100 percent on target. He also didn't get hit until the ball passed through his hands, or so it appears.

[Bray Wyatt]

 

definitely not routine. it would have been routine if TT would have thrown it a second earlier.

 

great point.. yes.. TT did lead him allowing YAC. Hopefully that improves this year as we go.

 

I believe the reason he doesn't hit Clay at the top of the drop as it looks like his first read was the receiver to the left there (Zay?) and then he comes back to Clay

Edited September 13, 2017 by Bray Wyatt

[dave mcbride]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

Good point.

[eball]

Thanks, Bo, for these -- I always look forward to them. Really glad to hear Mills played well based upon your review.

[quinnearlysghost88]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

How many people are "some"? Because you can get some people on this board to agree on just about any insane thing you can dream up.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

thanks.. they take a while to create. .glad some people find them useful

 

...wow...fantastic job....thanks!.....

[Bocephuz]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

thanks..

is it possible that Clay could have made the catch.? .. Yes.

 

Should he have been in that position in the first place.. probably not.

 

I can understand TT being gun shy about batted balls but he has to get over that. In looking at the GIF again there is a nice clean window between Incognito and Glenn for him to throw through. ( Also.. thumbs up to Shady on pass protect there.. outstanding job)

[PolishDave]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

 

I thought it looked like TT wanted to go to the corner with the pass first - then changed his mind when he saw Clay come open. If he had anticipated Clay coming open, the throw would have been earlier and probably an easy touchdown. I am thinking Clay was not the primary target there. Could be wrong of course.

 

Next time they run that play in the red zone - hopefully he looks at the corner route again just to look off the DB and gets a wide open Clay to throw to (sooner).

Edited September 13, 2017 by PolishDave

[Bocephuz]

Thanks, Bo, for these -- I always look forward to them. Really glad to hear Mills played well based upon your review.

Yeah.. I was really shocked at Mills. He was decent when he first came in '15 so I guess there is hope.

[mannc]

How many people are "some"? Because you can get some people on this board to agree on just about any insane thing you can dream up.

How about, more than just a few?

[dave mcbride]

thanks..

is it possible that Clay could have made the catch.? .. Yes.

 

Should he have been in that position in the first place.. probably not.

 

I can understand TT being gun shy about batted balls but he has to get over that. In looking at the GIF again there is a nice clean window between Incognito and Glenn for him to throw through. ( Also.. thumbs up to Shady on pass protect there.. outstanding job)

What do you think about the point of trying to avoid a pick, which was a danger if he led him? I don't think it looked like that tough of a catch at all even though it was behind him. I expect $6 million TEs to make it, but i also know that drops happen. It was just bad luck that it resulted in a pick.

Edited September 13, 2017 by dave mcbride

[Gugny]

These are great as usual. Thanks, again.

 

I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.

 

One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.

 

Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.

 

The only reason I lean toward calling this more of a bad pass than a drop is how close-range the throw was.

[Charlottebillsfan2]

Solid post, thanks for putting this together!!!

[Bocephuz]

 

I believe the reason he doesn't hit Clay at the top of the drop as it looks like his first read was the receiver to the left there (Zay?) and then he comes back to Clay

 

Ok.. yes. Upon further review it looks like TT was staring at Zay Jones as his first read and comes back to Clay second read.

 

So it is not so clear cut that this was an unforced error.

 

My criticism is that he still could have seen that Jones was not good option earlier and moved on to second read a little faster. That is nitpicking I suppose on my part though.

[PolishDave]

 

The only reason I lean toward calling this more of a bad pass than a drop is how close-range the throw was.

 

TT probably wishes he had seen Clay sooner and also probably wishes he had put more heat on the ball.

[Bocephuz]

Solid post, thanks for putting this together!!!

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Great post and many thanks! Agree with most points in it, too.

 

Do take issue with the INT being totally on Taylor. Should have thrown it earlier, but a TE making the money Clay is making should probably hold onto a ball that hits his hands on the 1 yard line. If I had to ratio it, then I'd apportion 65% fault to Clay and 35% fault to Taylor on that play.

 

Totally agree that while Matthews was open on the long YAC play, it was Taylor's positioning of the ball to the correct side that allowed Matthews to turn how he did and avoid the initial would-be tackler.

[Bocephuz]

Great post and many thanks! Agree with most points in it, too.

 

Do take issue with the INT being totally on Taylor. Should have thrown it earlier, but a TE making the money Clay is making should probably hold onto a ball that hits his hands on the 1 yard line. If I had to ratio it, then I'd apportion 65% fault to Clay and 35% fault to Taylor on that play.

 

Totally agree that while Matthews was open on the long YAC play, it was Taylor's positioning of the ball to the correct side that allowed Matthews to turn how he did and avoid the initial would-be tackler.

 

agree on the Clay thing after taking a second look at sideline cam and seeing Zay Jones as primary read

 

also agree on the Matthews throw.

 

good points

[HappyDays]

Haven't had time to read it all yet but very solid so far. This must have taken a lot of work. Great post, I hope you keep doing these.

[Gugny]

 

TT probably wishes he had seen Clay sooner and also probably wishes he had put more heat on the ball.

 

Oh, I'm sure. But it's not like it was a horrible pass or a gimme INT. Not to mention, it was week 1 and he missed a lot of preseason.

[section122]

Thanks for this Bo! Awesome work and much appreciated.

 

The int appeared to me to be on both guys. Not a great throw but a ball a professional should catch. Great hit by the safety though and I get why Clay didn't hold on.

 

The play you highlighted in the 1st quarter where TT scrambles around on 3rd and 11 before finding, I believe Mathews, was just a wow play and my favorite from TT in the game. That is a play that not too many guys can make.

[GG]

Thx. I think you nailed why coaches were looking so hard at Ducasse at camp. Vlad is so bad, most people ignored how poorly Miller has looked this summer.

[cage]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

 

I like the overall analysis and appreciate the effort, however, I have to agree your point. I also think the GIF reinforces it. Though the throw is a touch behind, that's a catch any athletic NFL receiver should make

[section122]

Thx. I think you nailed why coaches were looking so hard at Ducasse at camp. Vlad is so bad, most people ignored how poorly Miller has looked this summer.

 

Vlad is certainly bad but I do remember Astro's reports mentioning Miller multiple times in the last one out list and the dogging it list.

[GG]

 

I like the overall analysis and appreciate the effort, however, I have to agree your point. I also think the GIF reinforces it. Though the throw is a touch behind, that's a catch any athletic NFL receiver should make

 

That's a very catchable ball with no defenders around. But how many receivers complete the catch as they're bringing the ball in and a safety barrels his helmet into the small of the back?

[Bocephuz]

Thx. I think you nailed why coaches were looking so hard at Ducasse at camp. Vlad is so bad, most people ignored how poorly Miller has looked this summer.

👍

Edited September 13, 2017 by Bocephuz

[blargo]

I really disagree with the first Miller "whiff." Look at the play again, it is a mis-direction, Taylor fakes the handoff and then rolls right without looking at what is happening behind him. Miller slides left and takes the nose tackle and keeps him from pressuring Taylor from the backside. The LB made the initial pressure, not the nose guard that was Miller's assignment.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?

 

Does anyone think it should have been a routine catch for Clay?

 

It was a poor throw. It was late and behind him. But it was the sort of "money" catch that a top TE or WR making the big bucks is expected to haul in. When I watch other teams play, I'm astounded at the amazing catches their players seem to make quite frequently.

[hondo in seattle]

Holy Schmoly! Jordan Mills received the highest grade? That's encouraging.

 

Bo, nice work. I usually watch games like a typical fan and follow the ball. Only once in a while do I keep my eyes on the linemen instead.

 

Your analysis gives me a clearer idea of what's happening in the trenches. Thanks.

Edited September 13, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[Bills757]

 

Does anyone think it should have been a routine catch for Clay?

 

It was a poor throw. It was late and behind him. But it was the sort of "money" catch that a top TE or WR making the big bucks is expected to haul in. When I watch other teams play, I'm astounded at the amazing catches their players seem to make quite frequently.

 

I wouldn't call it a routine catch but certainly catchable. Not the best throw, but not a bad throw either. FWIW, the ball was already through Clay's hands before the defender hit him. In real time, it looks like the hit caused the drop but that's not the case.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

 

That's a very catchable ball with no defenders around. But how many receivers complete the catch as they're bringing the ball in and a safety barrels his helmet into the small of the back?

 

Mark Campbell would've caught it.

 

EDIT: Anyone else care to give a ratio of Taylor/Clay fault on that play? To repeat, mine is 35/65 Taylor/Clay.

Edited September 13, 2017 by JohnBonhamRocks

[Alphadawg7]

 

I believe the reason he doesn't hit Clay at the top of the drop as it looks like his first read was the receiver to the left there (Zay?) and then he comes back to Clay

 

Agreed. And I am sorry, no QB delivers the ball perfectly every throw. So even if one wants to argue that the ball could have been placed slightly better, it does not excuse our starting TE from letting a pass go through both his hands right in front of his face from about 7 yards away. That is a throw I will take any QB throwing 100% of the time. The TE, who is among the highest paid in the NFL, absolutely does not get a pass for not catch that throw. Its essentially the same throw as a back shoulder throw, which is a mandatory pass any receiving target is expected to catch in the NFL.

 

But to the OP...I appreciate your work and write up and enjoy reading it, but I just don't agree thats a QB error which would be an uncatchable pass or very low % throw with high risk. The pass to Clay was neither of those and our TE blew it again.

Edited September 13, 2017 by Alphadawg7