Boatdrinks Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Chicken and the egg. I think it cuts both ways. The elite QB makes the average WR look better...I always go back to Marcia and Deion Branch. An elite WR should be an easy target for an average QB...maybe use Alshon Jeffreys and Brandon Marshall with Cutler as an example. And what does the elite WR do with a below average QB? Like the Bills have had. Haven't even had anyone thecaliber of Cutler. See what Hopkins did last year with Osweiler . It cuts both ways, but a below average QB can't find his WR or get him the ball consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 That was evil. Just sayin'. I know...but it is so Billsian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 @sn_nfl NFL free agency: Sammy Watkins' days in Buffalo not numbered despite Bills declining option http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-free-agency-2018-sammy-watkins-fifth-year-option-declined-buffalo-bills-wide-receiver/npd67y948lpmzapzawivv8as?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter This is my general thinking as well. A lot of hand wringing going on when in actuality the only real risk is about $3m in salary cap and even that wouldn't be a sure thing with Transition tag and re signing him to a long-term deal would be in the cards. Many football people also happen to believe this is a good move as well and their line of reasoning is basically the exact same as what I happen to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 This team just tortures us year after year. On the field and off the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuklz2594 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 he will sign with the pats and become a hall of fame wr. imo....if we did not give up so much for him, i do not think anybody be this upset. i feel kind of bad for sammy. after what was given to the browns to get him, kid has/had alot to live up to. broken foot and surgery are a B word. been there done that. it may never be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 No, you do. And it really isn't even an opinion. It is a plain and provable fact. The ONLY thing that could explain otherwise is if the Bills already know he has some injury that will never heal. We'd probably all know that by now. Not only do you have it backward but you can't distinguish your opinion from fact. They want to be sure he is completely healed. This move gives both sides flexibility. He comes out and lights it up the Bills can offer him a big deal starting 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If its a great move, and we are in such a hurry to franchise tag him, why does any team pick up the option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If its a great move, and we are in such a hurry to franchise tag him, why does any team pick up the option? It's relatively cheaper for teams to pick up the option. They want to make sure he is healthy. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Not only do you have it backward but you can't distinguish your opinion from fact. They want to be sure he is completely healed. This move gives both sides flexibility. He comes out and lights it up the Bills can offer him a big deal starting 2018. The Bills have doctors that are able to supply them with a highly accurate prognosis. "Wait and see" is completely unnecessary. If they already know that he will never heal fully, then they made the right choice. Otherwise they are acting as irrationally as the people in this thread calling Sammy "injury prone" as if Cooks or Beckham could never get injured. I actually did an options analysis on the various outcomes. It is in a spreadsheet and I wish i could cut and paste an image. But in short, I laid out the possibilities: 1. Extend him now 2. Pick up the option For both of these, I made a sub-tree which had him playing all 16 games or less than that. To keep it simple, I assigned a value to him playing a game as a per-game salary 3. Option not picked up This had multiple sub-trees. In addition to above, it had extend at end of this year, franchise tag him then have him walk etc,... In an option analysis, you add up the probability weighted sub-trees to assign a value to each major option. Doing it this way and playing with some probabilities, I came to the conclusion that it is in the best interest of the Bills to WAIT and not pull the trigger now. This is purely a financial exercise. A full blown analysis will require some Monte Carlo type modeling which I am not trained to do. But, in essence, I will give the Bills the benefit of doubt and think they actually ran through this simulation. Which is what led them to the decision of not picking up the option. I actually support this decision. Having said that and as an aside, I am getting convinced that McD is trending towards being the new Greggo. How did you determine the odds of him being hurt. How abut his trade value now and a year from now with and without the option? If Watkins is healthy and produces, resign or tag him. If he continues to be fragile and unable to play a unable to play a full season, let him test the FA market. The phrase "continues to be fragile" summarizes the irrational stance many in this thread have taken. For some it has spun out of control to the point where they hate the best player on their favorite team. McDermott is evidently equally emotion based, at least in this case. Will Jack Eichel be next? His injury is being blamed in part for the Sabres season. What if next season he gets slashed in game one and breaks his wrist? Fragile? Should we hate him? Newsflash: human bones break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 which is essentially what the Bills are doing by not picking up his option. simple enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 The Bills have doctors that are able to supply them with a highly accurate prognosis. "Wait and see" is completely unnecessary. If they already know that he will never heal fully, then they made the right choice. Otherwise they are acting as irrationally as the people in this thread calling Sammy "injury prone" as if Cooks or Beckham could never get injured. How did you determine the odds of him being hurt. How abut his trade value now and a year from now with and without the option? The phrase "continues to be fragile" summarizes the irrational stance many in this thread have taken. For some it has spun out of control to the point where they hate the best player on their favorite team. McDermott is evidently equally emotion based, at least in this case. Will Jack Eichel be next? His injury is being blamed in part for the Sabres season. What if next season he gets slashed in game one and breaks his wrist? Fragile? Should we hate him? Newsflash: human bones break. You apparently don't understand medicine either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 @andyyoungsports #Bills and McDermott are saying "Show me, Sammy." Why I think it's the right move. http://www.twcnews.com/nys/buffalo/sports/2017/05/2/bills-pass-on-watkins-fifth-year-option.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 And what does the elite WR do with a below average QB? Like the Bills have had. Haven't even had anyone thecaliber of Cutler. See what Hopkins did last year with Osweiler . It cuts both ways, but a below average QB can't find his WR or get him the ball consistently. It's worth noting that the #1 predictor of WR production is targets. The reason guys like Beckham and Evans out-produced Sammy is because they get significantly more targets. That was the basis of Sammy's complaint in 2015, and his performance bore that out--he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015, and lo and behold, he was the most productive WR in the NFL over that span. Targets are the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo86 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 The Bills have doctors that are able to supply them with a highly accurate prognosis. "Wait and see" is completely unnecessary. If they already know that he will never heal fully, then they made the right choice. Otherwise they are acting as irrationally as the people in this thread calling Sammy "injury prone" as if Cooks or Beckham could never get injured. How did you determine the odds of him being hurt. How abut his trade value now and a year from now with and without the option? The phrase "continues to be fragile" summarizes the irrational stance many in this thread have taken. For some it has spun out of control to the point where they hate the best player on their favorite team. McDermott is evidently equally emotion based, at least in this case. Will Jack Eichel be next? His injury is being blamed in part for the Sabres season. What if next season he gets slashed in game one and breaks his wrist? Fragile? Should we hate him? Newsflash: human bones break. IMO, your spinning of this into people hating Sammy represents the most irrational & emotion-based view in this entire thread. It's business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 It's worth noting that the #1 predictor of WR production is targets. The reason guys like Beckham and Evans out-produced Sammy is because they get significantly more targets. That was the basis of Sammy's complaint in 2015, and his performance bore that out--he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015, and lo and behold, he was the most productive WR in the NFL over that span. Targets are the key. One would hope Dennison realizes Sammy can be used on bubble screens, quick slants, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 It's worth noting that the #1 predictor of WR production is targets. The reason guys like Beckham and Evans out-produced Sammy is because they get significantly more targets. That was the basis of Sammy's complaint in 2015, and his performance bore that out--he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015, and lo and behold, he was the most productive WR in the NFL over that span. Targets are the key. Exactly bro and the organization made a mistake by trying to use his injury history as a crutch to not pick up the 5th year. It is thinking like this that has helped to put us in the position we are today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If its a great move, and we are in such a hurry to franchise tag him, why does any team pick up the option? Teams pick up the option on their players because they are sold on that particular player. Reasonable people can disagree on whether or not that there is an argument to be made that Sammy may not be worth the risk. I happen to believe the McD strategy of "show me" happens to be a good move. The downside risk is $3M. The upside potential is a more motivated, unwavering and productive Sammy. There are a lot of excuses as to why Sammy hasn't put up the numbers as some of his peers and those arguments do carry validity but at the end of the day, it's about putting up the numbers and helping this team win. So far, he hasn't been able to do that on a consistent basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 One would hope Dennison realizes Sammy can be used on bubble screens, quick slants, etc. Whatever it takes to get the ball into his hands. When you watch teams like Atlanta, TB, PIT, and NYG, they force the ball to their best WR, and it works. Exactly bro and the organization made a mistake by trying to use his injury history as a crutch to not pick up the 5th year. It is thinking like this that has helped to put us in the position we are today. I agree that this move is a mistake, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Sammy's Bills' career just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToughII Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I can't say it enough, GREAT MOVE by the Bills. It is finally time we have someone up there making great football decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 It's worth noting that the #1 predictor of WR production is targets. The reason guys like Beckham and Evans out-produced Sammy is because they get significantly more targets. That was the basis of Sammy's complaint in 2015, and his performance bore that out--he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015, and lo and behold, he was the most productive WR in the NFL over that span. Targets are the key. Exactly. Except for half the season at the end of 2015 we've never fed him like a #1 WR. He missed 3 games that year, then 8 last year, when he still made it back at the end of the year for a failed playoff push. If the foot injury is chronic, it's one thing, but given that we are Buffalo, we've rarely done him favors with play calling and he's done his best to be available more often that not, I don't see why he should have any good faith towards us. I expect he'll play great this year, refuse to sign long term, force us to franchise him, then walk after 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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