K-9 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 It's worth noting that the #1 predictor of WR production is targets. The reason guys like Beckham and Evans out-produced Sammy is because they get significantly more targets. That was the basis of Sammy's complaint in 2015, and his performance bore that out--he was the 4th-most targeted WR in the NFL over the final 9 games of 2015, and lo and behold, he was the most productive WR in the NFL over that span. Targets are the key. Enough said. Throw him the ball and he produces. Pretty simple. Assuming there isn't a mitigating factor relative to his health, I don't like this decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Enough said. Throw him the ball and he produces. Pretty simple. Assuming there isn't a mitigating factor relative to his health, I don't like this decision. . Your assumption is the likely main reason they held off on the 5th year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 . Your assumption is the likely main reason they held off on the 5th year. My assumption is that there isn't a mitigating factor. If there isn't, this decision makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyMannn Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 One would hope Dennison realizes Sammy can be used on bubble screens, quick slants, etc. Bills do this and Sammy will be out for the year by Columbus Day. I think there is more here with his foot injuries, maybe not progressing as well as it should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 How did you determine the odds of him being hurt. How abut his trade value now and a year from now with and without the option? I varied the probabilities and I think the breakeven was somewhere between 60-70% of him being healthy for 16 games. The re-upping price was varied between $13 and $17 MM/year. I didnt store the results of every iteration but can do that if you want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 IMO, your spinning of this into people hating Sammy represents the most irrational & emotion-based view in this entire thread. It's business. Look at the adjectives used to describe him throughout this thread and tell me how a reasonable objective person could use them. Fragile, female body part, blah blah blah. Watch out Eich. You're next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToughII Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Enough said. Throw him the ball and he produces. Pretty simple. Assuming there isn't a mitigating factor relative to his health, I don't like this decision. I love the decision its a very smart move. He can't stay on the field, 10 injuries in his very short, young career that is way too many. Prove it. This guy needs to step on the field and produce 16 + games and EARN his next contract. The days of just giving Bills players contracts is over, they have to earn them. As for as the money, who cares? Right now we are due to have over 30 mill in cap room BEFORE it goes up. 5th year 13 mill, Franchise Tag 17 mill, who cares? The smart move was to say no and make him earn it and that is what McDermott did. IF he performs, try to extend him. If he says screw you, Tag him. This is simple folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I love the decision its a very smart move. He can't stay on the field, 10 injuries in his very short, young career that is way too many. Prove it. This guy needs to step on the field and produce 16 + games and EARN his next contract. The days of just giving Bills players contracts is over, they have to earn them. As for as the money, who cares? Right now we are due to have over 30 mill in cap room BEFORE it goes up. 5th year 13 mill, Franchise Tag 17 mill, who cares? The smart move was to say no and make him earn it and that is what McDermott did. IF he performs, try to extend him. If he says screw you, Tag him. This is simple folks. This is 100% the right move. And, I have a Sammy Watkins jersey I wear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 My assumption is that there isn't a mitigating factor. If there isn't, this decision makes zero sense. How can you say his injury is non-mitigating when he hasn't been cleared for OTAs? Look at the adjectives used to describe him throughout this thread and tell me how a reasonable objective person could use them. Fragile, female body part, blah blah blah. Watch out Eich. You're next. Has anyone at OBD used this language? No. in fact McD has said he and Sammy have had discussions and he looks forward to him having a good season. You are the one being hysterical about this. Not McD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Bills do this and Sammy will be out for the year by Columbus Day. I think there is more here with his foot injuries, maybe not progressing as well as it should If the bolded is true, then I'd understand the decision. Otherwise it is inarguably stupid. Has anyone at OBD used this language? No. in fact McD has said he and Sammy have had discussions and he looks forward to him having a good season. You are the one being hysterical about this. Not McD. If you're going to defend your opinion, then defend it. Don't keep flip flopping on who said what or mischaracterizing what I said. I never said that language came from OBD. I said it came in this thread and from fans. I did say the actions of OBD are irrational and emotional unless they know something unpublished about the injury. I don't think it rises to the level of hysterical and never used that word. But, if you are going to continue to mischaracterize what I said then have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I love the decision its a very smart move. He can't stay on the field, 10 injuries in his very short, young career that is way too many. Prove it. This guy needs to step on the field and produce 16 + games and EARN his next contract. The days of just giving Bills players contracts is over, they have to earn them. As for as the money, who cares? Right now we are due to have over 30 mill in cap room BEFORE it goes up. 5th year 13 mill, Franchise Tag 17 mill, who cares? The smart move was to say no and make him earn it and that is what McDermott did. IF he performs, try to extend him. If he says screw you, Tag him. This is simple folks. Not sure if you've noticed, but $30M is NOT a lot of cap space anymore. Tag Sammy, and you're down to $13M in cap space--$23M if it goes up another $10M. Then, figure you still need to find a QB, 2 LBs, a DT, and fill out a roster that has only 54 guys under contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I did say the actions of OBD are irrational and emotional unless they know something unpublished about the injury. I don't think it rises to the level of hysterical and never used that word. But, if you are going to continue to mischaracterize what I said then have fun. I am in the exact opposite point of view. i think it is a very cold, financial move based on probabilities and uncertainty regarding his foot. If the doctors had said he is 100% good to go and highly unlikely to break down again, then we wouldnt be having this conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 sarcasm font ? I hope? I hardly think the decision has been made unless it is based upon a physical evaluation No sarcasm, I just feel like this is the first step in us not being willing to pay Sammy. Which, I can understand, but it's still frustrating. I hope I'm wrong and we keep him long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If the bolded is true, then I'd understand the decision. Otherwise it is inarguably stupid. If you're going to defend your opinion, then defend it. Don't keep flip flopping on who said what or mischaracterizing what I said. I never said that language came from OBD. I said it came in this thread and from fans. I did say the actions of OBD are irrational and emotional unless they know something unpublished about the injury. I don't think it rises to the level of hysterical and never used that word. But, if you are going to continue to mischaracterize what I said then have fun. Who cares about the fans opinion. What counts is what the docs know. And no one here has a clue about that. And you claim OBD is irrational when it seems you are the only one acting in that manner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 How can you say his injury is non-mitigating when he hasn't been cleared for OTAs? Has anyone at OBD used this language? No. in fact McD has said he and Sammy have had discussions and he looks forward to him having a good season. You are the one being hysterical about this. Not McD. I'm not saying his injury is not mitigating. In fact, I'm saying the exact opposite. IF his injury is a mitigating factor, this makes sense. If he is healthy, it doesn't. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Who cares about the fans opinion. What counts is what the docs know. And no one here has a clue about that. And you claim OBD is irrational when it seems you are the only one acting in that manner In K-9's post directly below yours he nails it. It is what I've been saying too. My observations about the fans only came into the discussion after 900 vindictive posters rooting for Sammy to fail called him names. Even if they are stupid, fans are supposed to be emotional. Front offices are not. IF the FO KNOWS Sammy's foot is an ongoing concern and that it may not ever heal properly, they made a rational decision. If the doctors feel it is following the normal trajectory of the injury and that Sammy will be ready to go this season, then the Bills did not act in a rational manner. Keep shifting the sands of your argument if you must, but be aware that sand never makes for a strong foundation. That is why you're struggling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I'm not saying his injury is not mitigating. In fact, I'm saying the exact opposite. IF his injury is a mitigating factor, this makes sense. If he is healthy, it doesn't. Sorry for the confusion. Got you. What I would hope is McD and Sammy had a conversation along the lines of this: we are concerned about the injury, but assuimg it heals up and you play as great as we know you can we'll be ready to give you a new deal where you make top WR money before the 2017 season ends. But if your injury proves bad you can understand we can't commit 13 million if you can't play. I think Sammy and his agent would see the logic. It protects both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToughII Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Not sure if you've noticed, but $30M is NOT a lot of cap space anymore. Tag Sammy, and you're down to $13M in cap space--$23M if it goes up another $10M. Then, figure you still need to find a QB, 2 LBs, a DT, and fill out a roster that has only 54 guys under contract. We have a QB. Other contracts will be modified, dear God this is a non issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 In K-9's post directly below yours he nails it. It is what I've been saying too. My observations about the fans only came into the discussion after 900 vindictive posters rooting for Sammy to fail called him names. Even if they are stupid, fans are supposed to be emotional. Front offices are not. IF the FO KNOWS Sammy's foot is an ongoing concern and that it may not ever heal properly, they made a rational decision. If the doctors feel it is following the normal trajectory of the injury and that Sammy will be ready to go this season, then the Bills did not act in a rational manner. Keep shifting the sands of your argument if you must, but be aware that sand never makes for a strong foundation. That is why you're struggling here. My main issue is you insisting McD is making some kind of emotional decision when he is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 IF the FO KNOWS Sammy's foot is an ongoing concern and that it may not ever heal properly, they made a rational decision. If the doctors feel it is following the normal trajectory of the injury and that Sammy will be ready to go this season, then the Bills did not act in a rational manner. I know this will be tough to comprehend, but what if it's somewhere in between "KNOWING it will never healing properly" and "normal trajectory of the injury"? That elusive gray area... Obviously there's some reason for concern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts