Kelly the Dog Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 You miss the point. You assume (among other things) that he a) doesn't suffer a debilitating injury in the next two years; and b) plays under the tag for two years. My point was (and remains) that this guy is not going to risk playing under the tag for two years b/c of his injury history and the risk that another injury renders him unable to perform at a level worthy of what you characterized as $50m guaranteed. In fact, the reference to the $50m illustrates the point. Even if Watkins plays under the tag twice, the guarantee on that contract is about 35% of your $50m figure in each "tag" year. I agree that it would be bad business to let him play into tag year 2 and then to sign him to a contract as you suggest. But the point is that he is unlikely to go that route because of his injury risk and, if he does, we get two more years of his prime at 70 cents on the guaranteed dollar without assuming what for him is enhanced risk of significant injury. At bottom, the bills gambled about 23% of next year's contract as a hedge against his health. Like it or not, it is smart (football) business. If he is healthy this year, the chance of a re-injury goes way, way down. This is a fixable injury. Several players have come back 100% and excelled. It's not likely that this goes on into the future, unless he is not better this year, and all signs point to him getting back. Sure it's not 100%. But unless the docs are seeing something we don't know about, he should be back. at 85% he was uncoverable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If he is healthy this year, the chance of a re-injury goes way, way down. This is a fixable injury. Several players have come back 100% and excelled. It's not likely that this goes on into the future, unless he is not better this year, and all signs point to him getting back. Sure it's not 100%. But unless the docs are seeing something we don't know about, he should be back. at 85% he was uncoverable. And the bold is what I keep coming back to: for a guy that's never been fully-healthy, he's absurdly dominant when given the appropriate level of focus in the passing game...and no, "absurdly dominant" is not an overstatement when we apply context to the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If he is healthy this year, the chance of a re-injury goes way, way down. This is a fixable injury. Several players have come back 100% and excelled. It's not likely that this goes on into the future, unless he is not better this year, and all signs point to him getting back. Sure it's not 100%. But unless the docs are seeing something we don't know about, he should be back. at 85% he was uncoverable. I don't disagree with this. I'll note that the bills have the meds - we obviously don't - and the language "if he is healthy." That's the rub. I don't blame the bills for hedging $3m-ish on his health. After all, the foot allegedly was fine last year, until it wasn't. Besides, as noted, this is a guy who is highly unlikely to risk playing out two tag years. If he does, and if he stays healthy, good for him - he wins, and the bills lose. But all things considered this approach was and is a "smart" gamble for the bills to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 And the bold is what I keep coming back to: for a guy that's never been fully-healthy, he's absurdly dominant when given the appropriate level of focus in the passing game...and no, "absurdly dominant" is not an overstatement when we apply context to the situation. Agreed. It's what I don't get either. He's an incredible talent even when not 100%. And he's shown it. And he showed it in college. He's a superstar. Let's get rid of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Agreed. It's what I don't get either. He's an incredible talent even when not 100%. And he's shown it. And he showed it in college. He's a superstar. Let's get rid of him. "Let's get rid of him" is a bit dramatic, no? As far as I know the team's approach is more "let's make sure he's healthy" before we commit a tremendous amount of money and cap space to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 he won't sign a 1 year extension when he can become a free agent after this eason Then do a multiyear deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Sammy's going to play lights out this season, increasing his stock for FA and then he's running to the hills for the best offer.........which will most likely be the Pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Then do a multiyear deal. One can only say "Franchise Tag or Long Term Deal" so many times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Makes sense since I don't see any major free agents on the Bills roster. Preston Brown and Cyrus are the only other significant expiring contracts on the Bills roster and neither one are can't lose players and both seem to be players that could be resigned if the Bills need them to. So if Sammy goes off and has a career year they can franchise him and work out a long term deal. Whereas if they picked up his option and Sammy gets another major injury the Bills will be locked into 13 million for Sammy with zero flexibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_with_it Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Are you really saying that every affliction that anyone has is totally unique and doctors are completely clueless as to healing timelines? They can't observe the healing process and get a reliable prognosis? In 2017? I can assure you they have a prognosis. If it is that the foot is healing properly then the Bills made a bad decision and based it on emotion. If the foot is not healing properly then the Bills made the right decision. Time to add some more sand to your argument. How about throwing in something irrelevant like his rib injury? Medicine isnt 100%. They thought his foot was healed last year do you remember? Yet here we are with you exactly stating the doctors know if Sammy will be healed and when. Its simply foolish.WTF is wrong with everyone this morning? For the last time, I said IF, IF there is a mitigating factor, then it makes sense. I haven't come anywhere NEAR saying there ISN'T a mitigating factor. If he is still hurt it makes total sense. Which, AGAIN, is what I've been saying all along here. Whats wrong with everyone? Here Ill let you know. There is no if his foot is still injured. Hes not taking part of anything until late July at the earliest. His foot is clearly still a mitigating factor. There is no if. The only if is if it will heal.Because is you picked up the option he can't say no. For two years. If you tag him he can say no.Do you understand the exclusive tag?Exclusive: Just what the name implies. The player is locked into his team and cannot negotiate with any other team during the free agency period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I agree with the above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 he is by far the bills most talented player. if he stays/gets healthy you franchise him and or extend him. this yr is the test. if he were healthy we'd be looking at a sure H of fame career ala Steve Smith. That foot has to heal and hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Do you understand the exclusive tag? Exclusive: Just what the name implies. The player is locked into his team and cannot negotiate with any other team during the free agency period. Not what I was talking about obviously. He doesnt have to sign his tag. Can hold out. And chances are McD would not want a guy that did not want to be here. I don't predict it but it has happened and while I don't think Sammy is a dick or prima donna who knows what he is thinking now about his future on the team. He may want out and he could force it under the tag, he couldn't under the option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill_with_it Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Not what I was talking about obviously. He doesnt have to sign his tag. Can hold out. And chances are McD would not want a guy that did not want to be here. I don't predict it but it has happened and while I don't think Sammy is a dick or prima donna who knows what he is thinking now about his future on the team. He may want out and he could force it under the tag, he couldn't under the option.What this makes zero sense...He could do exactly as your stating under the option. Heck any player could not show up. Its ridiculous to insinuate that he wouldnt show up and play. You are essentially saying Watkins Would have shown up to play for 1 year for 13 mil. But wouldnt show up to play 1 year 17 mil. If he chose not to show he wouldnt get paid fir an entire year, as such he would show the league a side of selfishness and unprofessional attitude that would likely hurt his stock Moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 What this makes zero sense... He could do exactly as your stating under the option. Heck any player could not show up. Its ridiculous to insinuate that he wouldnt show up and play. You are essentially saying Watkins Would have shown up to play for 1 year for 13 mil. But wouldnt show up to play 1 year 17 mil. If he chose not to show he wouldnt get paid fir an entire year, as such he would show the league a side of selfishness and unprofessional attitude that would likely hurt his stock Moving forward. You're missing a key distinction: if they pick up his option, he's under contract, whereas if they tag him, he doesn't have to sign it, and therefore would not be under contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellyToughII Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 he won't sign a 1 year extension when he can become a free agent after this eason Yes and neither will the Bills offer one. They will offer an extension near the end of the season or tag him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 You're missing a key distinction: if they pick up his option, he's under contract, whereas if they tag him, he doesn't have to sign it, and therefore would not be under contract That's very clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 That's very clear. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 You're missing a key distinction: if they pick up his option, he's under contract, whereas if they tag him, he doesn't have to sign it, and therefore would not be under contract Right, but if he were tagged, he would have to either sign it (and be under contract), sit out or force a trade - and I just don't think those last two are as simple, or as easy a decision, as some here are making it seem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 don't get me wrong he can be good when on the field but only one full season under his belt since drafted with only 2,400 yds and 17 tds he really wouldn't be missed that much and can be replaced? his injury issues have been his real thorn in the side. maybe they'll try to get something for him but you can be sure it wont be a 1st round pick(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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