"Those who can't recall the past are condemned to repeat it&#3

[Wayne Arnold]

That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense."

 

Historical Event #1

 

After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp.

 

Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time.

 

Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation.

 

Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft.

 

Historical Event #2

 

After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his.

 

Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies.

 

The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season.

 

Learning From History? Or Repeating It?

 

The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them.

 

Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie?

 

The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating.

 

Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's?

 

Stay tuned.

[DrDawkinstein]

Very good post, Wayne. Interesting points and comparison with Fitz/TT and Schwartz/Lynn.

 

I'd still like the Bills to bring in a couple guys like Shanahan and Reich to interview before settling. But your point is strong.

[Wayne Arnold]

Very good post, Wayne. Interesting points and comparison with Fitz/TT and Schwartz/Lynn.

 

I'd still like the Bills to bring in a couple guys like Shanahan and Reich to interview before settling. But your point is strong.

 

I don't mind them doing their due diligence and making sure Lynn is the right guy. That's even more important than continuity.

 

But in the end, keeping this offensive system in tact and bringing in an experienced, talented 4-3 Defensive Coordinator offers us the best chance of winning now.

[PromoTheRobot]

Man who run in front of car get tired.

Man who run behind car get exhausted.

Foolish man give wife grand piano, wise man give wife upright organ.

Man who walk through airport turnstile sideways going to Bangkok.

I kill me.

[Tipster19]

I don'T know if I really agree with all this but I just wanted to recognize a well thought out post. Job well done!

 

Ps-as I have to edit my short response! Lol!

Edited January 2, 2017 by Tipster19

[DC Tom]

You know who else never learned from the past? Hitler!

[Gugny]

I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity.

 

What are we looking to continue, exactly?

[Punching Bag]

I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity.

 

What are we looking to continue, exactly?

 

Less gungy team.

[Samwell Tarly]

You may have a point. Some people say it's easier to look for your next job while you still have one, the same logic may apply to qbs as well. I know it worked for the Packers a few years back, and the Niners picked up Young while they still had Montana. Buying on opportunity instead of desperation usually leads to a better deal.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Jigsaw2112

[mead107]

New owners now

[Punching Bag]

You may have a point. Some people say it's easier to look for your next job while you still have one, the same logic may apply to qbs as well. I know it worked for the Packers a few years back, and the Niners picked up Young while they still had Montana. Buying on opportunity instead of desperation usually leads to a better deal.

 

I agree it is easier to tell a #2 QB is ready for big time by seeing how well he plays when a true #1 is out if they are same type of QB.

Some of the scramblers will look good when the issue is OL but it is not a long term solution.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense."

 

Historical Event #1

 

After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp.

 

Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time.

 

Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation.

 

Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft.

 

Historical Event #2

 

After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his.

 

Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies.

 

The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season.

 

Learning From History? Or Repeating It?

 

The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them.

 

Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie?

 

The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating.

 

Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's?

 

Stay tuned.

 

Good post! I 100% agree on retaining Taylor as the best current QB option. Try to improve from there, if you like.

 

What I would like to see the Bills do is similar to the option you suggest Whaley favored - bringing in an offensive-minded HC and trying by every means possible to retain Schwartz.

I would like to bring in a defensive-minded HC or a neutral HC (like ST coordinator Toub) and try by every means to retain Lynn.

 

I am concerned that it's difficult for the HC to serve as de-facto coordinator on one side of the ball and often seems to hinder their performance in both roles.

I am also concerned that it might be too big of a step to go from RB coach to HC in 1 year, which would be bad for Lynn as it would hinder him getting another shot.

 

I believe that by hiring a defensive-minded coach such as Sean McDermott or Teryl Austin or a coach who is more of an executive type, like perhaps Toub, retaining Lynn as OC, and picking up Tyrod's option, the Bills would grow Lynn's career by letting him take a step that would help him become a HC, and the Bills would have the best chance to take that next step themselves.

[QCity]

Fans still think it was a mistake to get rid of Fitz. Nothing surprises me anymore.

[Wayne Arnold]

I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity.

 

What are we looking to continue, exactly?

 

A top 10 offense - which is a rarity for this franchise.

 

DVOA

 

2016 - #10

2015 - #9

2014 - #26

2013 - #25

2012 - #20

2011 - #16

2010 - #26

2009 - #29

2008 - #24

2007 - #23

2006 - #22

2005 - #30

2004 - #21

2003 - #29

2002 - #18

2001 - #21

2000 - #14

1999 - #7

 

First Top 10 offense since Bill Clinton was POTUS - but let's throw it away like we did with the defense two years ago.

[Gugny]

 

A top 10 offense - which is a rarity for this franchise.

 

DVOA

 

2016 - #10

2015 - #9

2014 - #26

2013 - #25

2012 - #20

2011 - #16

2010 - #26

2009 - #29

2008 - #24

2007 - #23

2006 - #22

2005 - #30

2004 - #21

2003 - #29

2002 - #18

2001 - #21

2000 - #14

1999 - #7

 

First Top 10 offense since Bill Clinton was POTUS - but let's throw it away like we did with the defense two years ago.

 

Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee.

 

The passing game sucked.

 

The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked.

 

But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

Good post! I 100% agree on retaining Taylor as the best current QB option. Try to improve from there, if you like.

 

What I would like to see the Bills do is similar to the option you suggest Whaley favored - bringing in an offensive-minded HC and trying by every means possible to retain Schwartz.

I would like to bring in a defensive-minded HC or a neutral HC (like ST coordinator Toub) and try by every means to retain Lynn.

 

I am concerned that it's difficult for the HC to serve as de-facto coordinator on one side of the ball and often seems to hinder their performance in both roles.

I am also concerned that it might be too big of a step to go from RB coach to HC in 1 year, which would be bad for Lynn as it would hinder him getting another shot.

 

I believe that by hiring a defensive-minded coach such as Sean McDermott or Teryl Austin or a coach who is more of an executive type, like perhaps Toub, retaining Lynn as OC, and picking up Tyrod's option, the Bills would grow Lynn's career by letting him take a step that would help him become a HC, and the Bills would have the best chance to take that next step themselves.

 

Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL.

 

Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee.

 

The passing game sucked.

 

The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked.

 

But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea.

 

Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday.

 

Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison.

 

I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best.

[John from Riverside]

 

Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL.

 

Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday.

 

Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison.

 

I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best.

Yes it is interesting how the O line McCoy and Touchdown Mike were affected by having a different qb back there......the way some would make it sound you could stick ANYONE back there and do the same thing

 

Apparently not

[Gugny]

 

Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL.

 

Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday.

 

Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison.

 

I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best.

 

Yes, let's use the last game of the season as the illustrating point. Brilliant.

 

I provided a link in another thread with regard to the offense in tight games/late in games. I can't find it right now, but it's out there. We ranked very low.

 

My personal preference is for the Bills to be a good football team. If finishing below .500 with the 31st ranked passing game in the league is what your preference is, then good on you.

I want better.

[Maury Ballstein]

Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee.

 

The passing game sucked.

 

The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked.

 

But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea.

This. Could care less they score more than pukes like Trenative, Fitz, Losman, Collins, and Manuel.

 

Let TT walk yesterday.

[Wayne Arnold]

This. Could care less they score more than pukes like Trenative, Fitz, Losman, Collins, and Manuel.

 

Let TT walk yesterday.

 

Good luck with that.

[Wayne Arnold]

John Clayton on WGR: "If you release Taylor you're just repeating 2013 again."

 

Smart man.

[Original Byrd Man]

That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense."

 

Historical Event #1

 

After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp.

 

Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time.

 

Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation.

 

Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft.

 

Historical Event #2

 

After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his.

 

Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies.

 

The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season.

 

Learning From History? Or Repeating It?

 

The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them.

 

Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie?

 

The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating.

 

Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's?

 

Stay tuned.

Dear sir you are far to intelligent to post on this board. Most of the posters here absorb all the crap being flung by our malevolent beat writers and then lament when another year has gone by with out a playoff appearance, because that is all they know how to do. Asking them to develop a well conceived thought is beyond their capacity. They can only repeat what they have read or heard.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Original Byrd Man

[Wayne Arnold]

Historical Event #2

 

After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his.

 

Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies.

 

The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season.

 

Learning From History? Or Repeating It?

 

The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating.

 

Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's?

 

The Pegulas and Whaley failed to learn from historical event #2.

 

How about #1? They're not likely to retain Taylor especially after letting Lynn go.

 

There's a big reason why this organization is owner of the longest playoff-less streak in any sport on the continent. It's got nothing to do with the Patriots or bad luck.

[BarleyNY]

So people here want to repeat the 31st ranked passing offense and 7-9 record? Interdasting......

[Wayne Arnold]

So people here want to repeat the 31st ranked passing offense and 7-9 record? Interdasting......

 

So that's what you got out of this thread? Yikes.

[Big Gun]

John Clayton on WGR: "If you release Taylor you're just repeating 2013 again."

 

Smart man.

John Clayton is an useless hack. Edited January 19, 2017 by old school

[Big Gun]

Agreed. You guys have a lot in common...

As useless as he is he does know some football. Can't say the same about you.

[DC Tom]

Agreed. You guys have a lot in common...

 

 

As useless as he is he does know some football. Can't say the same about you.

 

[This is an automated response.]

 

You're both idiots.

 

Created by DC Tom-bot, beta version 0.5.

[Doc]

The Pegulas and Whaley failed to learn from historical event #2.

 

How about #1? They're not likely to retain Taylor especially after letting Lynn go.

 

There's a big reason why this organization is owner of the longest playoff-less streak in any sport on the continent. It's got nothing to do with the Patriots or bad luck.

 

Huh? The problem with the team was the defense. So they fired the defensive-minded HC and got rid of his failed 3-4 defense and hired a guy who will reinstall the 4-3 and added defensive assistant coaches who have been coordinators and/or head coaches in the past.

 

As for offense, TT is not the long-term answer, and short-term he'll cost $16M/year. The Bills can go 7-9 or 8-8 with a draft pick or FA, and if they tank, they can be in position to get one of the good prospects coming out in 2018.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

 

Huh? The problem with the team was the defense. So they fired the defensive-minded HC and got rid of his failed 3-4 defense and hired a guy who will reinstall the 4-3 and added defensive assistant coaches who have been coordinators and/or head coaches in the past.

 

As for offense, TT is not the long-term answer, and short-term he'll cost $16M/year. The Bills can go 7-9 or 8-8 with a draft pick or FA, and if they tank, they can be in position to get one of the good prospects coming out in 2018.

Thank you Doctor. Patience is a virtue and Bills fans should be inundated by it at this point. The Browns will likely rise again and we will know why.

[Reed83HOF]

First of all great post, you put a lot of time and effort into it! You laid out a lot of reasons for staying course and yes the offense was much better than it has been in a long time; additionally yes the defense stunk the joint up as well.

 

When you look at the the quarter by quarter scoring totals this year:

 

You see this and it looks pretty good:

 

1 2 3 4 OT Final

Buff 78 99 110 112 0 399

Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398

 

Now when we dig a little deeper, we have this:

 

We were basically tied at the end of the first, we would fall behind at the half 204-177( 27 points less), by the end of the 3rd we were behind 301-287 (14 points less) and the 4th is where it gets interesting and that is where you need to look at garbage time numbers we scored: NYJ - 7 (1:22 left), Mia - 8 (0:19s left + 2pts), Pats - 8 (0:33s left + 2pts), NYJ - 7 (0:43s left).

Q4 = 112pts - 30 garbage time points = 82 pts in Q4

1 2 3 4 OT Final

Buff 78 99 110 82 0 369

Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398

Now the picture is a little bit different. But there is a bit more...

So going into Q4, with the garbage time adjustments; we didn't keep pace with scoring in the 4th and that hurt us A LOT. Now if you look at the SF game in particular, we scored 21 in the 4th; which is uncharacteristic for us and we were pouring it on; they scored 0 points in the 4th. If you adjust for that (94-61 = 33 points less), our scoring now looks like this in Q4:

1 2 3 4 OT Final

Buff 78 99 110 61 0 348

Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398

I haven't looked, but I do wonder what out TOP was, the number of drives and 3 and out percentage Q by Q. Regardless, I ask the question - was our offense really that good?

[Doc]

Thank you Doctor. Patience is a virtue and Bills fans should be inundated by it at this point. The Browns will likely rise again and we will know why.

 

Rise to what?

[Beef Jerky]

Rise to what?

Another owners criminal scandal.

[ricojes]

"Those who can't recall the past are condemned to repeat it"

So the **Patsie's will continue to cheat....

[PromoTheRobot]

So people here want to repeat the 31st ranked passing offense and 7-9 record? Interdasting......

 

By dismantling the decent offense and ignoring the crap defense, apparently.

[Wayne Arnold]

So going into Q4, with the garbage time adjustments; we didn't keep pace with scoring in the 4th and that hurt us A LOT. Now if you look at the SF game in particular, we scored 21 in the 4th; which is uncharacteristic for us and we were pouring it on; they scored 0 points in the 4th. If you adjust for that (94-61 = 33 points less), our scoring now looks like this in Q4:

1 2 3 4 OT Final

Buff 78 99 110 61 0 348

Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398

I haven't looked, but I do wonder what out TOP was, the number of drives and 3 and out percentage Q by Q. Regardless, I ask the question - was our offense really that good?

 

Yes, it was that good. DVOA takes all factors into account including "garbage time." For all teams, not just the Bills btw.

[Reed83HOF]

 

Yes, it was that good. DVOA takes all factors into account including "garbage time." For all teams, not just the Bills btw.

 

While yes, advanced stats are nice, they can be misleading at times; if you look around online even FO (Schatz) admits this. This is not an invitation to get into a dissertation over this btw. You are clearly biased in our opinion that TT should stay, as you have indicated all over the place, and look to point this out at every chance you get - yes we have one helluva a juggernaut offense, just remember that DVOA had Miami ranked as the 6th best team in the NFL during this season.

 

There is not one stat that is above all, you need to look at more than just one; I also know the advanced stat lovers see them as the only way to account for things and they love to throw them out as the end all be all's.

 

You don't need anything overly exotic in order to see that we scored 30 garbage time points in the last few minutes of the game where the defense was trying to get us to bleed the clock down, as you recall our 2 minute offense is not that fast; we could be counted on to move at a paltry pace and wind the clock down when the game was out of hand for us. We simply were not able to score when we needed to at the end of the game. Again, I know this is an typical "bs-style" argument against advanced stats, but for christ sakes - watch the games. Why do you think the TV announcers indicate that once we are down 4 points, TT only led us back now twice. That's a fact.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Reed83HOF

[BarleyNY]

So that's what you got out of this thread? Yikes.

 

This thread and many other similarly whiny threads.

 

By dismantling the decent offense and ignoring the crap defense, apparently.

Really? Here are the rankings:

 

Offense

- Run 1st

- Pass 30th

- Overall 16th

Defense

- Run 29th

- Pass 6th

- Overall 19th

 

Sure is obvious what the two problem areas are.

[Reed83HOF]

 

 

This thread and many other similarly whiny threads.

 

 

Really? Here are the rankings:

 

Offense

- Run 1st

- Pass 30th

- Overall 16th

Defense

- Run 29th

- Pass 6th

- Overall 19th

 

Sure is obvious what the two problem areas are.

 

You don't even need the rankings; it is apparent simply watching the game...

[Sandy McFiddish]

I have always loved that quote, another that would describe it was Einstein's "The definition of insanity it doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result"