Doc Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I have always loved that quote, another that would describe it was Einstein's "The definition of insanity it doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result" I call that "stupidity." You don't have to be insane to keep making the same mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 You don't even need the rankings; it is apparent simply watching the game... What I like about statistical analysis is that it compares all 32 teams without human bias. Which is generally more accurate than an assessment from a frustrated fan who watches three or four games a week and emotionally and irrationally blames the quarterback for all of his team's problems. Potentially bad news for the Tyrod haters: the new OC was Tyrod's QB coach in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fixxxer Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I have always loved that quote, another that would describe it was Einstein's "The definition of insanity it doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result" Was that Norman or Albert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 What I like about statistical analysis is that it compares all 32 teams without human bias. Which is generally more accurate than an assessment from a frustrated fan who watches three or four games a week and emotionally and irrationally blames the quarterback for all of his team's problems. Potentially bad news for the Tyrod haters: the new OC was Tyrod's QB coach in Baltimore. Potentially worse news for TT: Dennison got to see TT as a full-time starter. Was that Norman or Albert? It probably wasn't either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricojes Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) I have always loved that quote, another that would describe it was Einstein's "The definition of insanity it doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result" Great quote, but it's usually mis-attributed to Einstein. Edited January 20, 2017 by ricojes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) What I like about statistical analysis is that it compares all 32 teams without human bias. Which is generally more accurate than an assessment from a frustrated fan who watches three or four games a week and emotionally and irrationally blames the quarterback for all of his team's problems. Potentially bad news for the Tyrod haters: the new OC was Tyrod's QB coach in Baltimore. I deal with statistical analysis all day and yes there are times you really need them and times you simply do not. Advanced stats in football is a very difficult proposition since they cannot account for the position by position interaction that is required in this sport. For me I'm not even emotional (I really hoped and wanted TT to solve the QB problem btw), he has not shown that he can help us win when we are down. I also have not blamed him for all of the team's problems (our Defense stinks, as do our STs). It is also true that we have a very imbalanced offense; if you shut down the run game - we sure as hell aren't passing to catch back up. Your last line basically sums up all I need to know.... Edited January 20, 2017 by Reed83HOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMIEBUF12 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 my thoughts would be not drafting a quarterback when you are picking in the top ten......maybe this season the bills finally can draft a real qb................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense." Historical Event #1 After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp. Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time. Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation. Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft. Historical Event #2 After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his. Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies. The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season. Learning From History? Or Repeating It? The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them. Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie? The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating. Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's? Stay tuned. Honestly, you can never go wrong with a good "Bills keep repeating mistakes" thread because they've nearly mastered it over the course of the last 17 years. That's just a fact. Hopefully it starts changing. Going into next season without Tyrod (or an elite replacement ) would be Billsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice2145 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Badal nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 What I like about statistical analysis is that it compares all 32 teams without human bias. Which is generally more accurate than an assessment from a frustrated fan who watches three or four games a week and emotionally and irrationally blames the quarterback for all of his team's problems. Potentially bad news for the Tyrod haters: the new OC was Tyrod's QB coach in Baltimore. And if Tyrod's old QB coach from B-more takes a pass, what would that tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It probably wasn't either of them. http://www.news.hypercrit.net/2012/11/13/einstein-on-misattribution-i-probably-didnt-say-that/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 And if Tyrod's old QB coach from B-more takes a pass, what would that tell you? I still wouldn't feel great about it and my concern would be that "Whaley went rogue" but I at least feel a little better with Dennison on staff regardless of which way it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HT02 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense." Historical Event #1 After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp. Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time. Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation. Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft. Historical Event #2 After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his. Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies. The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season. Learning From History? Or Repeating It? The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them. Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie? The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating. Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's? Stay tuned. I wouldn't complain about the Bills keeping Tyrod, as long as continue to look for a better long-term solution. To borrow the catch phrase of the late great Paul Harvey, here's the rest of the story...Bills were never going to win a Championship with Fitzpatrick so 7-9, 8-8 versus 6-10 who really cares? Schwartz may have had the Bills playing good to very good defense (great is a stretch) but he was a not a success as an head coach (29-51 .363 winning percentage) That is certainly history worth remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Or, as Michael Herr wrote in "Dispatches": “Those who remember the past are condemned to repeat it too, that’s a little history joke.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) They can win and possibly even contend with TT until they find better. And better isn't going to fall into their lap. They will need to be fortunate with a prospect and patiently cultivate him. If they have learned anything, I hope it's that you never go into a draft having to draft a starting QB, unless you're pick #1 and Andrew luck has declared. Edited January 23, 2017 by Over 28 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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