Tyrod: Regressed?

[26CornerBlitz]

Is that what most of the guys in the late teens of a year ranking are doing? He's essentially the lowest paid guy expected to start that's not on a rookie deal

 

He won't be after this season if the extension kicks in. What's the point if he can't perform?

[26TrapDraw]

As a side note, welcome to the board!! I know that you haven't been here long but you have turned out a lot of solid contributions already. I really look forward to what you are going to bring.

Well I must be a turd sandwhich because i don't remember getting this warm welcome

[26CornerBlitz]

@si_nfl

Week Under Review: It’s a new era in the NFL, filled with streaky, mediocre quarterbacks (by @thefootballgirl) http://on.si.com/2dezsKo

[Kirby Jackson]

Well I must be a turd sandwhich because i don't remember getting this warm welcome

You were around here before I was!! Where was my warm welcome?

[MAJBobby]

Fitz's 2015 Chart

Here is Bradford's

Bridgewaters

Full page photo.pdf

Bradford.pdf

Bridgewater.pdf

[Nihilarian]

What I believe we are seeing is the very same QB the team had last year only this preseason didn't have much playing time to work off the rust and get his timing down with his receiving corps.

 

The Ravens shut down the run game and made the QB win the game and the Jets followed with the same thing. The difference is that with more playing time Tyrod made some things happen against the Jets despite no strong run game again.

 

Should the Bills OC get the run game working then I suspect we will see a better offense and conversely, if it stalls again it will be placed on the QB's shoulders to win the game. Forcing the QB to throw to Watkins and downfield more often just might have him emerge as a star and OTOH it just might ruin his career by killing his confidence.

 

Some fans are already towing the company line that Greg Roman deserved to be fired because of the failure to develop Tyrod to be better at reading defenses and better downfield throwing over the middle. Also, he had a tendency to wait until he saw the receiver open rather than trusting his receiver to be at a preconceived spot on the field. These fans need to remember that this is a 6th round draft pick that needs time to develop and that process usually takes years.

[MAJBobby]

Ok I posted 5 passing Charts.

 

Taylors

 

Wintsons

Bridgewaters

Bradfords

Fitzs

 

So what is the key takeaway. The graphic representation of the major hole in Tyrods play. Look at the distribution between the numbers and 10+ yards.

 

Now you will see why it is easy to play defense against him.

What I believe we are seeing is the very same QB the team had last year only this preseason didn't have much playing time to work off the rust and get his timing down with his receiving corps.

 

The Ravens shut down the run game and made the QB win the game and the Jets followed with the same thing. The difference is that with more playing time Tyrod made some things happen against the Jets despite no strong run game again.

 

Should the Bills OC get the run game working then I suspect we will see a better offense and conversely, if it stalls again it will be placed on the QB's shoulders to win the game. Forcing the QB to throw to Watkins and downfield more often just might have him emerge as a star and OTOH it just might ruin his career by killing his confidence.

 

Some fans are already towing the company line that Greg Roman deserved to be fired because of the failure to develop Tyrod to be better at reading defenses and better downfield throwing over the middle. Also, he had a tendency to wait until he saw the receiver open rather than trusting his receiver to be at a preconceived spot on the field. These fans need to remember that this is a 6th round draft pick that needs time to develop and that process usually takes years.

5 years in the NFL.... due 27M at the end of the season. Tells me that I should see some progression. I don't see any meaning he is likely at his ceiling and if that is the case then time to move on because he isn't good enough

Edited September 19, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Kirby Jackson]

Ok I posted 5 passing Charts.

 

Taylors

 

Wintsons

Bridgewaters

Bradfords

Fitzs

 

So what is the key takeaway. The graphic representation of the major hole in Tyrods play. Look at the distribution between the numbers and 10+ yards.

 

Now you will see why it is easy to play defense against him.

To take it a step further it makes it even easier if he is just standing in the pocket. You cant take away his biggest weapons (his legs and improvisational skills).

[MAJBobby]

To take it a step further it makes it even easier if he is just standing in the pocket. You cant take away his biggest weapons (his legs and improvisational skills).

 

he had them last year.... Guess what happened still ignored the middle of the field. Now because teams can ignore that area of the field they spy him. Like the Jets did, Like the Ravens Did. So are the Bills taking his legs away or are the other teams.

 

I venture to say it is the other teams Just like Giants and NE did last year.

 

At end of Day if he cannot win from the pocket and use the entire field he needs to go. I am not paying 27M to a QB that is extremely limited.

Edited September 19, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed as a passer, or if our perceptions changed

 

Stat wise...

Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG

This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG

 

2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9

 

2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5

 

2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7%

 

Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down

Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work

 

Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently?

 

A big difference is what we're NOT getting on offense so far. Overall, last year, we averaged just over 150 yds rushing per game. In the first 3 games, we were 147,160,151 yds rushing. Only 2 games with <100 yds rushing.

The 4th game, a loss to the Giants, only 55 yds rushing and the higher passing yardage couldn't make up for it.

 

This year, so far, 65 and 86 yards rushing.

 

We could afford for Tyrod to take time to develop in the passing game because we were getting the equivalent of 7 or 8 more 1st downs in our rushing game.

 

This year, teams are dedicated to stuffing the run and stuffing Tyrod if he runs, so it's pass or choke.

 

Also, the biggest difference is to what we saw at the end of the year, not averaged over the whole year. Taylor seemed to be throwing over the middle more comfortably, and also finding Sammy to target - Sammy had 10 or more targets in 6 of the last 8 games. So it looked like positive development and from that we regressed.

[K-9]

To take it a step further it makes it even easier if he is just standing in the pocket. You cant take away his biggest weapons (his legs and improvisational skills).

"Just make him be a quarterback."

 

Perhaps THE single most telling scouting report in history.

[FLFan]

Tyrod posted a 112 QB rating the last game, a game in which he didn't reach the red zone until the end of the 4th quarter. That should tell you what a mirage QB stats are.

I guess that's true if you do not count the first two touchdowns.

[NoSaint]

 

He won't be after this season if the extension kicks in. What's the point if he can't perform?

next year the cash outlay would be high but he would still be among the cheapest in the league over a longer length than the single year.

 

if we keep him past this season, its essentially keeping him on the roster like 2 more years as more or less guaranteed, but still as a cheap starter.

 

i guess my point in mentioning that is that IF he starts using his legs some and is still boom or bust as a passer -- that might be preferred to starting over altogether. kind of like fitz being paid as the 19th best starter wasnt a terrible contract and we wouldve been fine sticking with him another year instead of kolb.

Edited September 19, 2016 by NoSaint

[KOKBILLS]

I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed as a passer, or if our perceptions changed

 

Stat wise...

Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG

This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG

 

2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9

 

2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5

 

2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7%

 

Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down

Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work

 

Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently?

 

I think he's the same guy...I think Defenses are going to continue to get better vs him unless Tyrod can prove he can do what they don't think he can do...Especially on 3rd down...

 

IMHO Tyrod is not unlike many of the QB's we've seen in here before in the area of actually processing what he sees and beating Defenses...The difference with Tyrod is, when he sees it he does have some success, and he's the best scrambling QB we've seen here since Flutie...Tyrod can make things happen when he scrambles, and that may actually give the false impression that he's better than he really is...

 

I think it's pretty simple...TT either learns how to burn Defenses by processing better, or he's not here next year...And I'm not optimistic...I think his lack of ability to speed thing up when needed is telling...I just don't believe the guy thinks the game fast enough to be a high level QB in the NFL...But in his defense not many do...

[26CornerBlitz]

next year the cash outlay would be high but he would still be among the cheapest in the league.

 

if we keep him past this season, its essentially keeping him on the roster like 2 more years as more or less guaranteed, but still as a cheap starter.

 

i guess my point in mentioning that is that IF he starts using his legs some and is still boom or bust as a passer -- that might be preferred to starting over altogether. kind of like fitz being paid as the 19th best starter wasnt a terrible contract and we wouldve been fine sticking with him another year instead of kolb.

 

I don't believe that kind of performance will lead to winning football.

[MAJBobby]

next year the cash outlay would be high but he would still be among the cheapest in the league over a longer length than the single year.

 

if we keep him past this season, its essentially keeping him on the roster like 2 more years as more or less guaranteed, but still as a cheap starter.

 

i guess my point in mentioning that is that IF he starts using his legs some and is still boom or bust as a passer -- that might be preferred to starting over altogether. kind of like fitz being paid as the 19th best starter wasnt a terrible contract and we wouldve been fine sticking with him another year instead of kolb.

 

Unless he starts doing basic QB stuff i am not wanting a 15m cap hit RB that hits occasional big pass on the roster.

[Reed83HOF]

This is the best thread on this board. Bobby, K-9, No Saint, et al. - great info and insights!

[Boatdrinks]

I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed as a passer, or if our perceptions changed

Stat wise...

Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG

This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG

2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9

2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5

2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7%

Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down

Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work

Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently?

It may not be a regression , but it's certainly a lack of progress. He doesn't appear to have improved at what he struggled with last season. Most fans gave him a pass with the expectation he would improve after a year as the starter. It's not just the outcomes of the games, but just how the offense looked with him running it. He made many errant throws, curious decisions , and just flat out missed reads. TT hasn't looked sharp. There are raised expectations because he went into this year as the unquestioned QB, getting all the reps, and having an entire offseason to better his skill set. If you aren't progressing, you are falling behind as every DC on your schedule has been scheming ways to defend you.

[MAJBobby]

Oooo and another thing for those complaining about the shotgun all the time.

 

That is another limitation brought on by Taylor. He has to be in shotgun to be able tonsee over the line post snap.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

he had them last year.... Guess what happened still ignored the middle of the field. Now because teams can ignore that area of the field they spy him. Like the Jets did, Like the Ravens Did. So are the Bills taking his legs away or are the other teams.

 

I venture to say it is the other teams Just like Giants and NE did last year.

 

At end of Day if he cannot win from the pocket and use the entire field he needs to go. I am not paying 27M to a QB that is extremely limited.

The answer is a little bit of both. One of the things that the Bills want out of Anthony Lynn are more designed roll outs and some zone read action. Both have been absent from the playbook through 2 weeks. You have to try to do what you do best and make teams stop you.

 

He may not ever be great at using the whole field. If they are playing to his strengths though you should see him having an easier time making plays in the middle of the field. It is also, a little chicken and egg. What is because of the play call and what is his lack of vision? We will start to find out more now that Roman is gone. Again, I would suspect that it is a little of both.

[QCity]

Is that what most of the guys in the late teens of a year ranking are doing? He's essentially the lowest paid guy expected to start that's not on a rookie deal

 

Next April the team has to make a decision on both his $15.5M option and his $12M salary which both become guaranteed at that time, it's a $28M decision with a future cap impact as well. That contract only favors the team if he improves this year. If he doesn't and they have to cut bait, then maybe John Clayton was right all along, and he winds up in Denver.

[K-9]

I guess that's true if you do not count the first two touchdowns.

I think he meant to say "red zone" and he's absolutely right. If your offense doesn't see the red zone until garbage time and you go 3 for 10 in third down conversions while only possessing the ball for a third of the game, it usually means you got poor QB play, and we did.

 

But yeah, he made two nice deep throws for scores. Whoopee!

[Kirby Jackson]

"Just make him be a quarterback."

 

Perhaps THE single most telling scouting report in history.

Agreed

 

The Bills challenge is to design ways to maximize his unique skillset and open things up. Will they be able to? As of now the answer is no but there is still time.

[MAJBobby]

The answer is a little bit of both. One of the things that the Bills want out of Anthony Lynn are more designed roll outs and some zone read action. Both have been absent from the playbook through 2 weeks. You have to try to do what you do best and make teams stop you.

 

He may not ever be great at using the whole field. If they are playing to his strengths though you should see him having an easier time making plays in the middle of the field. It is also, a little chicken and egg. What is because of the play call and what is his lack of vision? We will start to find out more now that Roman is gone. Again, I would suspect that it is a little of both.

So you want to go forward into 2017 with a limited QB?

 

I dont. I want and deserve better as a fan

[clearwater cadet]

Yeah he's off, something is not right with him.

[MAJBobby]

Look i get it. Everyone wants to blame Roman for Taylors lack of success.

 

I get it we want so bad to have a legit QB, and thats why people are overly critical of Roman.

 

This is gonna end badly for you people, i give you props though you are all in on Taylor.

[Kirby Jackson]

So you want to go forward into 2017 with a limited QB?

 

I dont. I want and deserve better as a fan

I want to see what the next 14 games bring before deciding that. I have seen enough through 16 starts to believe that he is the best option that we have had in years. In addition, I think that he has a very high ceiling because of his skillset. Clearly he has some shortcomings and they do not appear to have improved with an offseason of working on them. Will the change in play calling lend to his improvement? The answer is that we don't know yet; we haven't seen it.

[MDH]

 

There was 1:24 left with 2 timeouts. Clock was not an issue.

 

 

I did not.

 

 

I have an huge issue with the read post snap, that won't cut it in the NFL. There's a possibility Clay takes that to the house.

How do you have an issue with the post snap read? Do you know his progression for this play? If Goodwin is his first read and he's wide open TT isn't going to take the time to scan his other targets, he's going to make the throw.

 

The problem was a combination of the throw and Goodwin's lazy route. If Goodwin makes a hard cut instead of rounding it off the throw doesn't look nearly so bad and perhaps he makes a play on it.

[Kirby Jackson]

Look i get it. Everyone wants to blame Roman for Taylors lack of success.

 

I get it we want so bad to have a legit QB, and thats why people are overly critical of Roman.

 

This is gonna end badly for you people, i give you props though you are all in on Taylor.

FWIW, I was critical of Roman last year too. He certainly has more than his share of shortcomings. There is blame to go around on this. We will find out as the year progresses where most shall lie.

[MDH]

Look i get it. Everyone wants to blame Roman for Taylors lack of success.

 

I get it we want so bad to have a legit QB, and thats why people are overly critical of Roman.

 

This is gonna end badly for you people, i give you props though you are all in on Taylor.

I don't know many who are all in on him. Most think he's struggled and needs to play better but they're willing to give him the season before writing him off.

[26CornerBlitz]

I want to see what the next 14 games bring before deciding that. I have seen enough through 16 starts to believe that he is the best option that we have had in years. In addition, I think that he has a very high ceiling because of his skillset. Clearly he has some shortcomings and they do not appear to have improved with an offseason of working on them. Will the change in play calling lend to his improvement? The answer is that we don't know yet; we haven't seen it.

 

Not only has he not improved, but to my eyes he looks worse. Defenses will continue to "make him be a quarterback" and take away the "strengths" of his game until he makes them pay. I'd like to see him succeed, but I'm not hopeful.

[MDH]

 

Not only has he not improved, but to my eyes he looks worse. Defenses will continue to "make him be a quarterback" and take away the "strengths" of his game until he makes them pay. I'd like to see him succeed, but I'm not hopeful.

Yeah, I agree. He has a tough task of adjusting his play to account for the defenses adjstments. We'll see if he's capable, but I too have my doubts.

[Gugny]

He hasn't regressed. He sucked last year, too, but everyone was in awe of his "beautiful stats." Same stats. Same crap.

[FLFan]

I think he meant to say "red zone" and he's absolutely right. If your offense doesn't see the red zone until garbage time and you go 3 for 10 in third down conversions while only possessing the ball for a third of the game, it usually means you got poor QB play, and we did.

But yeah, he made two nice deep throws for scores. Whoopee!

I don't know what he meant, only what he said. I am not suggesting that the offense was efficient, or that Taylor does not need to improve his performance, but I cannot understand why two long touchdowns are not a good thing. That's two more than most QBs had this week. Whoopee indeed.

[flaz]

I don't know where the stat is but I heard that the plays were being called in with around ten seconds left on the play clock. If your driving a car and only looking ten seconds down the road, you might wind up in a train wreck too. Let's see if the new OC can get the play called in a timely manor so TT has time to read the defense. He's had no time to check down or adjust protection. Let's hope for a better showing Sunday!!

 

Go Bills!

[dave mcbride]

Just putting a little context out there: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=1&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&statisticPositionCategory=QUARTERBACK&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING .

 

CAVEAT: I know he hasn't played as well as his rating suggests (11th overall once you take Manuel and Brissett out of the leaders), but people need to realize that there is a lot of lousy quarterbacking this league. Even Rodgers hasn't looked great - multiple fumbles last night and a bad final interception to basically end the game for GB. Russell Wilson is struggling. Bortles had very bad game yesterday. Kirk Cousins has been very subpar. And Gabbert, Keenum, Cutler, etc. -- basically many other teams are in worse shape than the Bills at the QB position.

I don't know what he meant, only what he said. I am not suggesting that the offense was efficient, or that Taylor does not need to improve his performance, but I cannot understand why two long touchdowns are not a good thing. That's two more than most QBs had this week. Whoopee indeed.

Don't get me started on those who disregard the importance of big play ability.

Edited September 19, 2016 by dave mcbride

[The Big Cat]

 

Don't get me started on those who disregard the importance of big play ability.

 

I don't know who you're referring to here. But at the very least, I would sacrifice a third of TT's big plays for sustained drives that finish with the same result.

[Reed83HOF]

Just putting a little context out there: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=1&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&statisticPositionCategory=QUARTERBACK&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING .

 

CAVEAT: I know he hasn't played as well as his rating suggests (11th overall once you take Manuel and Brissett out of the leaders), but people need to realize that there is a lot of lousy quarterbacking this league. Even Rodgers hasn't looked great - multiple fumbles last night and a bad final interception to basically end the game for GB. Russell Wilson is struggling. Bortles had very bad game yesterday. Kirk Cousins has been very subpar. And Gabbert, Keenum, Cutler, etc. -- basically many other teams are in worse shape than the Bills at the QB position.

Don't get me started on those who disregard the importance of big play ability.

 

 

Overall the quality of the game of football has been decreasing for quite sometime. Not only is QBing a seemingly lost art form, but tackling and blocking are awful now too - there are a myriad of reasons for this. Big play ability is entirely important. Trentative had zero big play ability and defenses take away the short checkdowns. There has to be a level of balance to keep the defense honest...

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

I don't know who you're referring to here. But at the very least, I would sacrifice a third of TT's big plays for sustained drives that finish with the same result.

So you'd give up 1 play for 1 sustained drive this year?

[QCity]

How do you have an issue with the post snap read? Do you know his progression for this play? If Goodwin is his first read and he's wide open TT isn't going to take the time to scan his other targets, he's going to make the throw.

 

 

 

With the SS (Pryor #25) pressing and the FS (Gilchrist #21) that high Clay is the hot. Their rookie LB (Lee #50) blew his coverage assignment and then fell down. After the play was over Gilchrist immediately pointed at the center of the field to indicate that they just dodged a huge bullet. This is not considered a difficult read for the QB to make.

I don't know what he meant, only what he said. I am not suggesting that the offense was efficient, or that Taylor does not need to improve his performance, but I cannot understand why two long touchdowns are not a good thing. That's two more than most QBs had this week. Whoopee indeed.

 

I meant exactly what I said -- red zone. There's nothing wrong with two long touchdowns, but if that's the only way you can score and the rest of the time you are going 3-and-out, your defense is going to be on the field for 40 minutes. And that's exactly what's happening.