NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 (edited) I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed as a passer, or if our perceptions changed Stat wise... Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG 2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9 2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5 2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7% Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently? Edited September 19, 2016 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Stats can be extremely misleading. He's been painfully slow with his reads and misfires on short-to-medium passes way too often. Hope he can turn it around but judging the first two games alone, he has regressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed, or if our perceptions changed Stat wise... Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG 2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9 2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5 2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7% Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently? I think that it is mostly the same. The biggest difference to me is a few plays jump out at me that were costly. I remember him missing Watkins and Woods wide open on 2 occasions that were big plays at the time. I think that he has largely been the same player but needs to escape the pocket more. There should be more designed rollouts and we will see his play improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I don't think he's regressed. I think he's always been half a qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 He hasn't regressed. The issue is he hasn't improved, and not teams will make him pay for it after having all offseason to study what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Stats can be extremely misleading. He's been painfully slow with his reads and misfires on short-to-medium passes way too often. Hope he can turn it around but judging the first two games alone, he has regressed. i guess, i think my point is that last year he was one of the slowest qbs to release the ball, and struggled with the intermediate. couple that with the fact that the stats are nearly identical... i guess the question i would ask is what makes you think the stats arent telling the story and his reads have gotten slower, for instance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I think through 2 weeks the peaks and valleys have been more obvious than they were last year. I forget where, but I read that 33.3% of our offensive production has come on 3 plays. Tyrod has looked uncomfortable, and doesn't appear to trust Robert Woods or his OL, despite relatively solid pass protection. It's also worth noting, in my opinion, that the running game has been significantly worse so far this year. I believe this is due, in part, to Tyrod not running/rolling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Tyrod posted a 112 QB rating the last game, a game in which he didn't reach the red zone until the end of the 4th quarter. That should tell you what a mirage QB stats are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I think through 2 weeks the peaks and valleys have been more obvious than they were last year. I forget where, but I read that 33.3% of our offensive production has come on 3 plays. Tyrod has looked uncomfortable, and doesn't appear to trust Robert Woods or his OL, despite relatively solid pass protection. It's also worth noting, in my opinion, that the running game has been significantly worse so far this year. I believe this is due, in part, to Tyrod not running/rolling out. One reason the run game as been worse is because no one respects inside the number past 9 yards deep. That allows single high safety and a safety coming down fast. Also allows LBers to play fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 i guess, i think my point is that last year he was one of the slowest qbs to release the ball, and struggled with the intermediate. couple that with the fact that the stats are nearly identical... i guess the question i would ask is what makes you think the stats arent telling the story and his reads have gotten slower, for instance? When a player goes from very poor to very poor, does it matter if he technically "regressed" or not? Bottom line: it's not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Very interesting look, Saint. We finished 2015 at 31st in 3 and out percentage. We're there right now. We finished 2015 29th in first downs, it's likely after MNF, only the Bears will have fewer through two games this year. Small sample, like all football stats, of course. But if there was displeasure with Roman's trajectory last year, it seems like they picked up exactly where they left off, and his offing was a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 When a player goes from very poor to very poor, does it matter if he technically "regressed" or not? Bottom line: it's not good enough. i only asked because you said that he regressed in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I think he is still what he was. He is not "the guy" and never will be. He is the "guy who will do nicely" while we continue to try to find "the guy." He could be a lot worse. Depends on your frame of reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I see regression with a lack of field vision that has resulted in stalled drives and missed opportunities for big plays. I also inconsistent accuracy with his short and intermediate passes that result in incomplete passes or receivers not being able to gain YAC. @PFF Tyrod Taylor 2016 passing splits: Play action passes: 26.3 QB Rating No play action: 118.3 Rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 One reason the run game as been worse is because no one respects inside the number past 9 yards deep. That allows single high safety and a safety coming down fast. Also allows LBers to play fast. Yes that explains it Defensive coordinator's are of course stupid and need an off season to figure all this out.....they cant figure it out in season last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb62 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I mentioned in an earlier post I think he looks physically slower (used to look like he could take it to the house). The out pattern to Goodwin which was wide open and he missed badly (and he had had a few others) is a real concern. These are easy throws that he was making last year. It looks like he is playing scared, not sure if it is drilled in to him don't you dare turn it over or if he doesn't have a good year the contact is off the table or both. On a bright note Cardale Jones looked surprisingly good in the preseason and with a year under his belt he might be OK next year. Remember had he come out in 2015 he would have been a top ten pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blokestradamus Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Yes that explains it Defensive coordinator's are of course stupid and need an off season to figure all this out.....they cant figure it out in season last year. One of the film breakdown guys (Erik or YPP, can't remember) said that opposition coaches have actively worked on taking away the Bills pin and pull run blocking. That would be the result of offseason tendency scouting. There is merit to Bobby's idea too, no linebacker cares about what's behind them and will sell out on the run if they know the QB won't make them pay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Those stats don't include running yards. Or lack of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Those stats don't include running yards. Or lack of. I'm legitimately surprised by the comp % stat. He's had some real hum dingers that we just didn't see in 2015. Cost them at least two third down conversions on TNF, if memory serves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I think that it is mostly the same. The biggest difference to me is a few plays jump out at me that were costly. I remember him missing Watkins and Woods wide open on 2 occasions that were big plays at the time. I think that he has largely been the same player but needs to escape the pocket more. There should be more designed rollouts and we will see his play improve. That's the biggest change to me. I don't recall him missing very basic throws last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Those stats don't include running yards. Or lack of. they do not. and he is down in that regard. both in attempts and ypc. i debated including them, but wanted to stick to discussing his passing skill level primarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Yes that explains it Defensive coordinator's are of course stupid and need an off season to figure all this out.....they cant figure it out in season last year. Tendency Scouting that does take an offseason. Need enough sample size to figure out those tendencies. Hence why you hear people say well they got a full year of tape etc. same reason the WildCat was dead after one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 It does seem like he has missed a bunch of easy throws that should have been completions, but that's just a subjective observation. Don't remember him doing that last year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Tendency Scouting that does take an offseason. Need enough sample size to figure out those tendencies. Hence why you hear people say well they got a full year of tape etc. same reason the WildCat was dead after one year. As a side note, welcome to the board!! I know that you haven't been here long but you have turned out a lot of solid contributions already. I really look forward to what you are going to bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 As a side note, welcome to the board!! I know that you haven't been here long but you have turned out a lot of solid contributions already. I really look forward to what you are going to bring. Appreciate it. I know I may come off as real critical of Tyrod and that might turn people off, but I will call it like I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snafu Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Tyrod hasn't shown any in-game consistency. He plays pretty crappy for long periods and then has a series or two where he plays well or hits a long pass. He's been like that for 18 games. Hasn't improved (yet) and hasn't regressed (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 they do not. and he is down in that regard. both in attempts and ypc. i debated including them, but wanted to stick to discussing his passing skill level primarily. At this point - he needs to run more. A lot more. Call some designed QB runs on plays other than 3rd and 1 - etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The A22 has been brutal for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The A22 has been brutal for him. That's exactly the kind of routine intermediate throw that can't be missed. Those are drive killers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 It does seem like he has missed a bunch of easy throws that should have been completions, but that's just a subjective observation. Don't remember him doing that last year though. i hear you -- i do know he had a stretch early of very high completion percentage games, but also went over a month without cracking 60% for a game. maybe we were hung up on the first impressions and discounted some of the later stuff that didnt fit that? not trying to push an agenda with that comment, but do know first impressions are big in human perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The A22 has been brutal for him. Is that clay over the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 The A22 has been brutal for him. I don't have an issue with the read. Both guys were wide open. I have an issue with the accuracy. Those are the exact throws that I don't remember him missing last year. Hopefully it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Too small a sample size, but he is not as good stat wise through two games this year as he was last year. But stats aren't always the best barometer when it comes to measuring a QB's progress or regression when there is so much more to QBing than passing the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 I don't have an issue with the read. Both guys were wide open. I have an issue with the accuracy. Those are the exact throws that I don't remember him missing last year. Hopefully it changes Maybe that's the problem. Both guys were wide open and he couldn't decide and threw it poorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Is that clay over the middle? Yeah, it was at a time where we wanted to conserve clock, so the read was Goodwin on the sideline. Figured he'd come out of the break harder towards the sideline, but instead turned into a missed dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 (edited) The A22 has been brutal for him. did you feel he was making those intermediate throws better last year? last year on passes thrown 11-20 yards ESPN splits put him at 49.1%, 1 TD, and 2 INT with a rating of 71.3, hes weakest interval this year on passes thrown 11-20 he is at 60% (only 3/5 so a small sample... but lack of attempts in that range is one of the bigger passing differences weve hit in the chat yet) Edited September 19, 2016 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 did you feel he was making those intermediate throws better last year? last year on passes thrown 11-20 yards ESPN splits put him at 49.1%, 1 TD, and 2 INT with a rating of 71.3, hes weakest interval this year on passes thrown 11-20 he is at 60% (only 3/5 so a small sample... but lack of attempts in that range is one of the bigger passing differences weve hit in the chat yet) I wonder if the regression of the running game is impacting perception as well? The Bills are not moving the ball on the ground like last year (including Tyrod). It felt like he was trying to play off of the running game while this year it feels like it is more on his shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 (edited) did you feel he was making those intermediate throws better last year? last year on passes thrown 11-20 yards ESPN splits put him at 49.1%, 1 TD, and 2 INT with a rating of 71.3, hes weakest interval this year on passes thrown 11-20 he is at 60% (only 3/5 so a small sample... but lack of attempts in that range is one of the bigger passing differences weve hit in the chat yet) I don't have the stat sheet so need to ask, those are "air yards" and not completed yards right? Edited September 19, 2016 by The Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 (edited) I don't have an issue with the read. Both guys were wide open. I have an issue with the accuracy. Those are the exact throws that I don't remember him missing last year. Hopefully it changesI have an issue with the read big time, both pre and post snap. That is just not NFL caliber. EDIT: someone up thread posted that play occurred when we were trying to conserve time on the clock, so I can forgive it if that is the case. I'm assuming we already wasted TOs that prevented us from being able to exploit the middle, too. Edited September 19, 2016 by K-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 I don't have the stat sheet so need to ask, those are "air yards" and not completed yards right? ESPN has it under "pass thrown 11-20 yards" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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