Tyrod: Regressed?

[The Wiz]

I wonder if the regression of the running game is impacting perception as well? The Bills are not moving the ball on the ground like last year (including Tyrod). It felt like he was trying to play off of the running game while this year it feels like it is more on his shoulders.

Very likely. I know it never looks like they are moving anywhere unless the ball is thrown. An exaggeration I know but the run game has looked beyond bad. With TT not running hasn't help them either.

ESPN has it under "pass thrown 11-20 yards"

I'll go ahead and assume they mean air yards then.

[QCity]

Yeah, it was at a time where we wanted to conserve clock, so the read was Goodwin on the sideline. Figured he'd come out of the break harder towards the sideline, but instead turned into a missed dive.

 

There was 1:24 left with 2 timeouts. Clock was not an issue.

 

did you feel he was making those intermediate throws better last year?

 

 

I did not.

 

I don't have an issue with the read.

 

I have an huge issue with the read post snap, that won't cut it in the NFL. There's a possibility Clay takes that to the house.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

There was 1:24 left with 2 timeouts. Clock was not an issue.

 

 

I did not.

 

 

I have an huge issue with the read post snap, that won't cut it in the NFL. There's a possibility Clay takes that to the house.

Not when they are trying to conserve clock

[MAJBobby]

I do not see a passing chart from this year yet. But I would imagine it is not much better then last years chart.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I do not see a passing chart from this year yet. But I would imagine it is not much better then last years chart.

have any others for comparisons sake?

[MAJBobby]

have any others for comparisons sake?

What QB you looking for I will see if I can find it

[K-9]

Not when they are trying to conserve clock

That play occurred in either the second or third qtr. If what Q says about the time remaining and the number of timeouts, then there is no excuse for TT to miss that play. None at all.

[BuffaloHokie13]

What QB you looking for I will see if I can find it

Umm, nobody specific. Maybe Dalton? or Brady

 

I guess Russell Wilson is usually the comparison. Any of those guys

[NoSaint]

Umm, nobody specific. Maybe Dalton? or Brady

 

I guess Russell Wilson is usually the comparison. Any of those guys

yea, really just a handful of random mid tier to good guys just to see what the trends across them would be.

[BuffaloHokie13]

That play occurred in either the second or third qtr. If what Q says about the time remaining and the number of timeouts, then there is no excuse for TT to miss that play. None at all.

It was with 1:24 before the half. When both receivers are open for relatively the same gain you go with the sideline in that situation.

[Direhard Fan]

The run game has not been there. The amount of plays run have not allowed him to get in a grove. The "D" has to give him more time on the field. He will be fine. 100m Deruis really screwed us. I don't care how good he is. It all comes down to it's a team effort and we are hurting as a team. Not just TT.

[NoSaint]

It was with 1:24 before the half. When both receivers are open for relatively the same gain you go with the sideline in that situation.

with a minute and a half left and the play taking you to the 20 --- im fine going with the guy that has a shot to score or gain more yards even if it eats clock (but you need a competent 2 minute offense to get up to the line)

 

90 seconds from the 20 yard line should be enough to do pretty much whatever you want in the passing game.

Edited September 19, 2016 by NoSaint

[PolishDave]

I wonder if the regression of the running game is impacting perception as well? The Bills are not moving the ball on the ground like last year (including Tyrod). It felt like he was trying to play off of the running game while this year it feels like it is more on his shoulders.

I think this is a huge part of it.

 

When the offense is moving the chains it makes the QB look effective even if you are running the ball. When you can't run and then miss a throw it makes it look like the QB is killing drives.

 

They get too much credit and too much blame at times depending on the circumstances.

 

I remember last year when Tyrod was competing for QB, when other quarterbacks were commanding the offense, the offense didn't move the chains well at all. When Tyrod was in there, they moved the chains consistently and made it look easy. (This was preseason of course.) But when comparing offenses with him in there compared to EJ it was night and day difference. I am certain that a lot of that was Tyrod using his legs to sustain drives too though. He hasn't done as much of that effectively this year.

[HeHateMe]

He is who we thought he was.

[PolishDave]

It was with 1:24 before the half. When both receivers are open for relatively the same gain you go with the sideline in that situation.

Yes. It is easy to say otherwise in hindsight.

[BuffaloHokie13]

with a minute and a half left and the play taking you to the 20 --- im fine going with the guy that has a shot to score or gain more yards even if it eats clock (but you need a competent 2 minute offense to get up to the line)

 

90 seconds from the 20 yard line should be enough to do pretty much whatever you want in the passing game.

I'd have been fine with either, but I can see why he went to the sideline

[K-9]

It was with 1:24 before the half. When both receivers are open for relatively the same gain you go with the sideline in that situation.

Not with that field position. I also don't agree with the idea of the same gain here. Clay needed to make one guy miss and/or bring him down and he's shown he can beat the first tackler and be a pain for a smaller guy to bring down frequently. Goodwin was maxed out at the sideline. TT missed a great opportunity no matter how I slice it.

Edited September 19, 2016 by K-9

[MAJBobby]

Winston's 2015

[The Big Cat]

Not with that field position. I also don't agree with the idea of the same gain here. Clay needed to make one guy miss and/or bring him down and he's shown he can beat the first tackler and be a pain for a smaller guy to bring down frequently. Goodwin was maxed out at the sideline. TT missed a great opportunity no matter how I slice it.

 

I think you're absolutely right. And I think people are resistant to acknowledge what you're saying, given the likelihood that these flubs continue, Roman or no Roman.

[PolishDave]

Not with that field position. I also don't agree with the idea of the same gain here. Clay needed to make one guy miss and/or bring him down and he's shown he can beat the first tackler and be a pain for a smaller guy to bring down frequently. Goodwin was maxed out at the sideline. TT missed a great opportunity no matter how I slice it.

And you expect your quarterback to analyze that and think about all that in the 2 seconds he has to decide where to throw the ball? Nonsense. He is coached to throw the ball to the sideline if the receiver is open. How can you fault the guy for that?

 

The guy is not a perfect QB and is certainly not a perfect pocket passer. I don't know why fans expect him to be. Nobody ever said he was. He's just the best QB on this team right now.

Edited September 19, 2016 by PolishDave

[NoSaint]

And you expect your quarterback to analyze that and think about all that in the 2 seconds he has to decide where to throw the ball? Nonsense. He is coached to throw the ball to the sideline if the receiver is open. How can you fault the guy for that?

from the 30 yard line with 90 seconds to go he should be coached to hit the right receiver wherever he is on the field. he shouldnt be worried about time beyond "dont take a sack"

[Agent 91]

Tyrod posted a 112 QB rating the last game, a game in which he didn't reach the red zone until the end of the 4th quarter. That should tell you what a mirage QB stats are.

Bingo. Thats a great post. I think he is the same guy. Teams just know now how to play him. His tendencies. I think that the only way he would have truly turned the corner is if he were to sustain drives and make all the throws. The Jets thoroughly disrespected him by running a single high with Sammy and Goodwin out there. Two guys who can burn. They know he cant/won't look down field. This, even after being burned by the goodwin score and the the Salas td. They still didn't give him enough credit to put the ball down field. That is the mark of a man who is not ready. He doesn't audible. I dont know if they use hand signals or what. But he really limits what you want to do. Let's see if Lynn has any clue. If he runs a different play scheme tyrod may look good again and we will have this same conversation next year

[K-9]

I think you're absolutely right. And I think people are resistant to acknowledge what you're saying, given the likelihood that these flubs continue, Roman or no Roman.

That's my feeling reality as well. I hope I'm wrong.

 

And in looking at that play again, TT has his pick of receivers as Sammy beats his guy and Woods is running open as the FS comes up to defend Clay. Christ! I'm just gonna say it: TT can't read a defense to save his life.

And you expect your quarterback to analyze that and think about all that in the 2 seconds he has to decide where to throw the ball? Nonsense. He is coached to throw the ball to the sideline if the receiver is open. How can you fault the guy for that?

 

The guy is not a perfect QB and is certainly not a perfect pocket passer. I don't know why fans expect him to be. Nobody ever said he was.

 

Damn right I expect my QB to analyze that. Ability to make pre and post snap reads is what separates the dime a dozens from the good ones.

[The Big Cat]

That's my feeling reality as well. I hope I'm wrong.

 

And in looking at that play again, TT has his pick of receivers as Sammy beats his guy and Woods is running open as the FS comes up to defend Clay. Christ! I'm just gonna say it: TT can't read a defense to save his life.

 

Damn right I expect my QB to analyze that. Ability to make pre and post snap reads is what separates the dime a dozens from the good ones.

 

Yeah, which is why I'm totally on the fence about the Roman firing.

 

Will it change the course of 2016 for the better? May be. Unlikely.

 

Will it provide a control group to evaluate the great TT experiment before he's given another $27M? Yep.

 

Is there any question that the decision was made to satisfy the latter, with the hopes of achieving the former?

[Dr.Sack]

Regression analysis aside, Tyrod hasn't improved his strengths. We are likely seeing his ceiling as a passer. Without developing the areas of his game that you've identified as weaknesses Tyrod has been figured out by NFL defensive coordinators. If Tyrod and the Bills don't find a way to expand the offense to maximize his talents we are looking at QB who will be cut after 2016.

[26CornerBlitz]

Regression analysis aside, Tyrod hasn't improved his strengths. We are likely seeing his ceiling as a passer. Without developing the areas of his game that you've identified as weaknesses Tyrod has been figured out by NFL defensive coordinators. If Tyrod and the Bills don't find a way to expand the offense to maximize his talents we are looking at QB who will be cut after 2016.

 

His chances of seeing $27M next season are not looking good at this point.

[The Big Cat]

 

His chances of seeing $27M next season are not looking good at this point.

 

And personally, I think the Bills WANT to give him that money. Firing the OC is a last ditch effort to do whatever possible to settle the position, once and for all.

[MAJBobby]

I have Bridgewater, Fitzpatrick charts to load as well. My phone doesn't have signal so cant get them to load right now. But once I can I will post them.

 

However just looking at the Winston passing distribution to Taylor passing distribution last year is a very stark contrast.

 

 

Reason Clay doesn't seem like he is producing IAW the contract signed is because the area that TEs historically work is ignored or not seen or to scared to throw into from this QB

Edited September 19, 2016 by MAJBobby

[26CornerBlitz]

 

And personally, I think the Bills WANT to give him that money. Firing the OC is a last ditch effort to do whatever possible to settle the position, once and for all.

 

As much as they might want to, they better not unless he demonstrates dramatic improvements over the course of the remaining season. I have serious doubts.

[The Wiz]

 

And personally, I think the Bills WANT to give him that money. Firing the OC is a last ditch effort to do whatever possible to settle the position, once and for all.

I think that's fair to say. Especially if the mad scientist locked in his lab stuff is true. Kind of odd to think an OC would work on a game plan and not include the QB while making the plan. This way, at least everyone is in the know from the end of one game to the start of the next.

[QCity]

And you expect your quarterback to analyze that and think about all that in the 2 seconds he has to decide where to throw the ball?

 

It is what's expected of every starting QB in the league.

[dave mcbride]

I am curious to hear thoughts on the topic of whether tyrod has actually regressed as a passer, or if our perceptions changed

 

Stat wise...

Last year: 63.7% completions, with 8.0 YPA, TDs on 5.3% of throws, INTs on 1.6%... 216 YPG

This year: 63.5% completions, with 7.8 YPA, TDs on 5.8% of throws, INTs on 1.9%... 204 YPG

 

2015 QB Rating 99.4, 2016 QB Rating 98.9

 

2015 QBR 67.8, 2016 QBR 62.5

 

2015 Sack 8.3%, 2016 Sacks 3.7%

 

Strengths -- Deep boundary throws, chunk yardage when plays break down

Weaknesses -- over the middle throws/reads, pocket presence, pre snap work

 

Are we seeing a very similar performance out of the guy (tack on an extra completion or two, and an extra sack or two, and the stats would be near the same), but due to the game outcomes and raised expectations viewing him differently?

The lack of rushing stats is important here. He made some very big plays running the ball last year, but hasn't done so this season, at least yet.

[The Big Cat]

 

As much as they might want to, they better not unless he demonstrates dramatic improvements over the course of the remaining season. I have serious doubts.

 

Eeeeegads. What does an extension-warranting performance even look like at this point?

 

I think that's fair to say. Especially if the mad scientist locked in his lab stuff is true. Kind of odd to think an OC would work on a game plan and not include the QB while making the plan. This way, at least everyone is in the know from the end of one game to the start of the next.

 

There was much allusion on GR this morning to a Marrone-esque unilateral atmosphere.

[PolishDave]

And in looking at that play again, TT has his pick of receivers as Sammy beats his guy and Woods is running open as the FS comes up to defend Clay. Christ! I'm just gonna say it: TT can't read a defense to save his life.

 

You're nuts bud. Look at the play again pre-snap.

 

Goodwin is one on one to the outside with VERY soft coverage.

 

The snap happens and the safety doesn't cheat to Goodwin and the coverage remains soft- That is all Tyrod needs to see to make the decision to throw him the ball.

 

Neither Sammy or Woods is open on that play until after the ball is released. They come open after/as the ball is released. You could argue Tyrod could have thrown a back shoulder to Sammy, but the coverage on Sammy was much tighter than the coverage on Goodwin.

 

It was a good decision by Tyrod - poorly executed. You can fault him for the execution. If you fault him for throwing the ball to an open receiver on the sideline in a 2 minute drill instead of throwing it to an open receiver in the middle of the field, you are just being nitpicky.

 

I can't help but think if Tyrod throws the ball to anyone else on this play and it goes incomplete - People would be saying look at how soft the coverage was on Goodwin. Tyrod should have seen that pre-snap and gone to Goodwin as the first option.

Edited September 19, 2016 by PolishDave

[dave mcbride]

they do not. and he is down in that regard. both in attempts and ypc.

 

i debated including them, but wanted to stick to discussing his passing skill level primarily.

I hear you, but so much of the perception of him revolves around winning and scoring, and part of the scoring and winning last year came from the runs.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I have Bridgewater, Fitzpatrick charts to load as well. My phone doesn't have signal so cant get them to load right now. But once I can I will post them.

 

However just looking at the Winston passing distribution to Taylor passing distribution last year is a very stark contrast.

 

 

Reason Clay doesn't seem like he is producing IAW the contract signed is because the area that TEs historically work is ignored or not seen or to scared to throw into from this QB

I appreciate the contributions!

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Eeeeegads. What does an extension-warranting performance even look like at this point?

 

 

There was much allusion on GR this morning to a Marrone-esque unilateral atmosphere.

 

Reading defenses correctly to deliver the ball with timing, anticipation, and accuracy on a consistent basis. I want to see him manipulate coverage with his eyes and subsequently throw his receivers open to sustain offense. When plays break down I want his to use his athletic gifts to make plays just like we have seen before. If he cannot perform in this manner, he's not worth the money.

[NoSaint]

 

Reading defenses correctly to deliver the ball with timing, anticipation, and accuracy on a consistent basis. I want to see him manipulate coverage with his eyes and subsequently throw his receivers open to sustain offense. When plays break down I want his to use his athletic gifts to make plays just like we have seen before. If he cannot perform in this manner, he's not worth the money.

Is that what most of the guys in the late teens of a year ranking are doing? He's essentially the lowest paid guy expected to start that's not on a rookie deal

[K-9]

You're nuts bud. Look at the play again pre-snap.

 

Goodwin is one on one to the outside with VERY soft coverage.

 

The snap happens and the safety doesn't cheat to Goodwin and the coverage remains soft- That is all Tyrod needs to see to make the decision to throw him the ball.

 

Neither Sammy or Woods is open on that play until after the ball is released. They come open after/as the ball is released. You could argue Tyrod could have thrown a back shoulder to Sammy, but the coverage on Sammy was much tighter than the coverage on Goodwin.

 

It was a good decision by Tyrod - poorly executed. You can fault him for the execution. If you fault him for throwing the ball to an open receiver on the sideline in a 2 minute drill instead of throwing it to an open receiver in the middle of the field, you are just being nitpicky.

 

I can't help but think if Tyrod throws the ball to anyone else on this play and it goes incomplete - People would be saying look at how soft the coverage was on Goodwin. Tyrod should have seen that pre-snap and gone to Goodwin as the first option.

I may be nuts but I know that my first read PRE SNAP is always the SS and I can tell PRE SNAP that he is either singled on Clay or gonna blitz and that FS depth tells me a lot, too, PRE SNAP because it informs my POST SNAP decision IMMEDIATELY, let alone the two seconds I STILL have.

 

The game situation gave TT a ton of options on that play and he ignored them, for whatever the reason may be.Based on the glaring evidence, TT either doesn't have permission to deviate based on what he sees or simply doesn't see it. Neither speaks to a QB with the requisite skill set.

 

As to your last paragraph, I think it is a specious argument. Complaining about an incomplete pass to anyone else on that play while Goodwin was wide open is not the point. A missed attempt to Clay or Woods would have been perfectly acceptable given the reads available. Indeed, I think a completion to Goodwin would have resulted in the same criticism; that TT missed a better opportunity. Much like his famous check down to McCoy last week.

Edited September 19, 2016 by K-9

[The Big Cat]

Is that what most of the guys in the late teens of a year ranking are doing? He's essentially the lowest paid guy expected to start that's not on a rookie deal

 

What are you saying?