YoloinOhio Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Article by Rob Quinn. Focuses on Dareus, Glenn, Bradham (Gilmore is signed through 2016) http://billsmafia.com/2015/07/09/projecting-contracts-for-upcoming-buffalo-bills-free-agents-marcell-dareus-nigel-bradham-and-cordy-glenn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 That's probably very close to the reality of what it will take to re-sign all three. It is going to be very tough. Not picking up Harvin's option will free up $8M and restructuring Clay's roster bonus to a signing bonus will free up $7.5M in 2016. The Bills will still have a ways to go to fit all three under the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 That Dareus projection is a doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) That Dareus projection is a doozyYeah. That might be a fair bit high. Suh's contract is freaking ridiculous. No way I go near that. OTOH if they are accurate for Glenn, I do that without blinking. Fans of teams with good LT play don't realize what a disaster it is without it. Edited July 10, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) Yeah. That might be a fair bit high. Suh's contract is freaking ridiculous. No way I go near that. OTOH if they are accurate for Glenn, I do that without blinking. Fans of teams with good LT play don't realize what a disaster it is without it. Agreed. Glenn's I do immediately and I also would take the estimate for Bradham. Here's hoping the cap goes up pretty high. Also I think McKelvin is going to be gone if the Dareus estimate is right. Edited July 10, 2015 by YattaOkasan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I have an unsettling thought. Things would work out pretty well with the cap if the team has already has decided they can't pay Dareus. They could re-sign Bradham, Glenn and do a long term deal with Gilmore if they let Dareus walk. I wouldn't do it, but I wouldn't have signed Clay or traded for Shady and given him his huge deal. Nor would I have signed Harvin for that matter. I'd have used that money to try and get a new deal done with Dareus this past offseason, then used the leftover for some reasonably priced players at RB and TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 They restructure Mario, Clay, and Harvin (if they keep him the second year), release Leodis with Darby coming on, and sign Gilmore to a long term deal and we can probably keep them all. That would limit the possibility of acquiring a new QB except for a #1 draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 They restructure Mario, Clay, and Harvin (if they keep him the second year), release Leodis with Darby coming on, and sign Gilmore to a long term deal and we can probably keep them all. That would limit the possibility of acquiring a new QB except for a #1 draft pick.if that's the case I would be elated. My preference is to draft a QB in the 1st (unless EJ or TT all of a sudden emerge as playoff/franchise QBs this season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 i think trading bradham is the move...could we get a 1st and parlay it into a qb next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted July 10, 2015 Author Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) i think trading bradham is the move...could we get a 1st and parlay it into a qb next year?i doubt it. Who are you going to replace him with this year? We already traded Kiko. Edited July 10, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 They restructure Mario, Clay, and Harvin (if they keep him the second year), release Leodis with Darby coming on, and sign Gilmore to a long term deal and we can probably keep them all. That would limit the possibility of acquiring a new QB except for a #1 draft pick. No way those numbers work out. Besides that, restructuring just kicks money into future years and a team can only do so much of it before creating bigger problems.. i think trading bradham is the move...could we get a 1st and parlay it into a qb next year?Who's giving up a 1st for Bradham? Not that the Bills could even trade him after this season as his contract will expire then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 No way those numbers work out. Besides that, restructuring just kicks money into future years and a team can only do so much of it before creating bigger problems.. Agreed, I also don't see how we resign everyone and keep Harvin. I am still very skeptical Harvin can be healthy all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oberyn Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) The X-factor that is not being considered is what the cap will be next year. I believe they are projecting it will go up like over $10,000,000 from 2015 to 2016, which of course makes signing these players substantially easier. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2015/3/19/8254541/buffalo-bills-2016-salary-cap-space-projection. As this article points out, of course, the Bills still will have a situation, but redoing the percy and clay deals will add around another 15 mill, plus the 8 mil projected here, and you are looking at 23 mil not including anything that can be done with Mario. Besides, look at what the Saints have done; it doesn't matter how little cap space you have, you can just sign everyone to back-loaded deals and just assume the cap will keep going up to bail you out. I will say this right now, there is absolutely no chance Dareus walks. None. Unless he doesn't want to stay of course, but all signs show him wanting to remain in Buffalo. You have to wonder how much of that is the Rex Effect. Edited July 10, 2015 by Oberyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I just have a feeling Mario doesn't get restructured. He has 3 years left on his deal and will be 33 when it expires. I just don't see it happening. Kyle Williams will probably be gone in 2-3 years....McKelvin, Freddie.....contracts expire and players leave...there will be cap room if they want to re-sign these guys....Some say not to pay Dareus Suh money but you know that's what his agent is asking for and the main reason he has not been re-signed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I think playing for Rex will be a big plus for players wanting to stay here. They can compare good cop , bad cop ( Marrone ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I suspect Dareus is going to want something equivalent to Suh, so we will see if settles for less, but he should clearly be the top priority. I think he is a better all around player and a case could be made for that. Gilmore will be the toughest to sign I think. Top CBs command stupid money. It is going to be tough to keep him if he has a strong year this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I suspect Dareus is going to want something equivalent to Suh, so we will see if settles for less, but he should clearly be the top priority. I think he is a better all around player and a case could be made for that. Gilmore will be the toughest to sign I think. Top CBs command stupid money. It is going to be tough to keep him if he has a strong year this year. I think Gilmore is signed for 2015 and 2016. I think playing for Rex will be a big plus for players wanting to stay here. They can compare good cop , bad cop ( Marrone ) It will make a small difference. Money matters most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Is Bradham really worth $7.5M a year? CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Is Bradham really worth $7.5M a year? CBF Not yet, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Dareus is the priority to the point I don't even care that much about the other two. Especially if we can develop one of last year's OT picks into being an effective LT. Bradham is turning a corner, but could also be replaced by a high round LB pick if need be. So... back a dump truck of cash up to Dareus's home and then go from there. On a side note, it annoys me that these analysts don't use a better video capture system than pointing a video camera at an app :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 The X-factor that is not being considered is what the cap will be next year. I believe they are projecting it will go up like over $10,000,000 from 2015 to 2016, which of course makes signing these players substantially easier. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2015/3/19/8254541/buffalo-bills-2016-salary-cap-space-projection. As this article points out, of course, the Bills still will have a situation, but redoing the percy and clay deals will add around another 15 mill, plus the 8 mil projected here, and you are looking at 23 mil not including anything that can be done with Mario. Besides, look at what the Saints have done; it doesn't matter how little cap space you have, you can just sign everyone to back-loaded deals and just assume the cap will keep going up to bail you out. I will say this right now, there is absolutely no chance Dareus walks. None. Unless he doesn't want to stay of course, but all signs show him wanting to remain in Buffalo. You have to wonder how much of that is the Rex Effect. The Saints dumped Jeremy Graham, Ben Grubbs and Kenny Stills for Max Unger and Dan Ellerbee in order to barely get under the cap. They also had to restructure and extend their other OG's contract to push some of his cap hit off. But at least they have a QB in place who can get them to a Super Bowl. The Bills are getting into the same cap situation without one. That's what infuriates me. It's one thing to do this to your team when you have a chance to win it all. That's defendable. But it's another when you're not in position to do that. As for Dareus, this offseason is/was prime time to sign him. The Bills won't be able to compete if they get into a competitive bidding situation. They just don't have the cap space and some team will get in the area of Dolphins-level stupid (I'm looking at you, Oakland). A team can't have two $20M a season defensive linemen. The Bills can tag him, try to re-sign him and then trade his rights if they have to. That'll still be tough. The more I think about it, the more doubtful I am that they will be to retain him if he isn't extended before the season ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 To me if we have to let one of those players go its Bradham......I hope that he understands the situation and is reasonable with his contract. Whaley really seems to do a great job at finding linbackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I suspect Dareus is going to want something equivalent to Suh, so we will see if settles for less, but he should clearly be the top priority. I think he is a better all around player and a case could be made for that. Gilmore will be the toughest to sign I think. Top CBs command stupid money. It is going to be tough to keep him if he has a strong year this year. Gilmore is going into his 4th year, and he has shown flashes for periods of time. BUT, he hasn't really had the big year you might think a #1 might have had. Looking at his first three years vs Darius....and there is not comparison, the big guy did better. Gilmore needs to show a full year at all pro performance level to get the crazy money. He hasn't shown that in three years, however. The Bills PR machine would have you believe in that, but I just haven't seen it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 The Saints dumped Jeremy Graham, Ben Grubbs and Kenny Stills for Max Unger and Dan Ellerbee in order to barely get under the cap. They also had to restructure and extend their other OG's contract to push some of his cap hit off. But at least they have a QB in place who can get them to a Super Bowl. The Bills are getting into the same cap situation without one. That's what infuriates me. It's one thing to do this to your team when you have a chance to win it all. That's defendable. But it's another when you're not in position to do that. As for Dareus, this offseason is/was prime time to sign him. The Bills won't be able to compete if they get into a competitive bidding situation. They just don't have the cap space and some team will get in the area of Dolphins-level stupid (I'm looking at you, Oakland). A team can't have two $20M a season defensive linemen. The Bills can tag him, try to re-sign him and then trade his rights if they have to. That'll still be tough. The more I think about it, the more doubtful I am that they will be to retain him if he isn't extended before the season ends. We can if we don't have a 20 million a year QB. And I don't see one on the horizon, do you? There is Rivers next year, but most think he isn't going anywhere, and that if he does, it won't be to Buffalo for the same reasons he won't go to LA. We won't ever be good if we constantly shed our good players because we don't have that franchise QB so we assume we don't have a chance to win. I believe we have a very good chance to win with this team, QB situation considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Gilmore is going into his 4th year, and he has shown flashes for periods of time. BUT, he hasn't really had the big year you might think a #1 might have had. Looking at his first three years vs Darius....and there is not comparison, the big guy did better. Gilmore needs to show a full year at all pro performance level to get the crazy money. He hasn't shown that in three years, however. The Bills PR machine would have you believe in that, but I just haven't seen it yet. and he's under contract for the next 2 seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Something else that hasn't been mentioned is whether or not Incognito will be around next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 We can if we don't have a 20 million a year QB. And I don't see one on the horizon, do you? There is Rivers next year, but most think he isn't going anywhere, and that if he does, it won't be to Buffalo for the same reasons he won't go to LA. We won't ever be good if we constantly shed our good players because we don't have that franchise QB so we assume we don't have a chance to win. I believe we have a very good chance to win with this team, QB situation considered. Not with the money already committed we can't. Or rather we can't keep Dareus without losing 2-3 other important players. There are realities to the Bills' spending. and he's under contract for the next 2 seasons Yes, but in 2016 he's going to make just over $11M so extending him next offseason makes a lot of sense. Something else that hasn't been mentioned is whether or not Incognito will be around next year. That's a good point. He will need re-signed or replaced with either a draft pick. If he's re-signed he won't be looking for a vet minimum again. This is his year to show he can play and stay out of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Not with the money already committed we can't. Or rather we can't keep Dareus without losing 2-3 other important players. There are realities to the Bills' spending. What 2-3 other important players would we lose? And are they more important than Glenn, Gilmore, Bradham, and Dareus? Just watching Dareus play, and the effect of him not being there during the raiders game tells me he is priority one. I could see losing 1, or maybe 2 of the others though. I wouldn't like it, but we have to do what we have to do. I get what you have been saying about restructuring but in some cases it just makes sense. Restructuring Mario so that he retires a Bill? Absolutely, same with Kyle. Add that to the CAP going up, and I don't think we will be in cap hell like the Saints. No we likely won't be able to get a big money QB if one becomes available, and next year we won't make a big free agency splash, but we already have the talent on our team to retain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) What 2-3 other important players would we lose? And are they more important than Glenn, Gilmore, Bradham, and Dareus? Just watching Dareus play, and the effect of him not being there during the raiders game tells me he is priority one. I could see losing 1, or maybe 2 of the others though. I wouldn't like it, but we have to do what we have to do. I get what you have been saying about restructuring but in some cases it just makes sense. Restructuring Mario so that he retires a Bill? Absolutely, same with Kyle. Add that to the CAP going up, and I don't think we will be in cap hell like the Saints. No we likely won't be able to get a big money QB if one becomes available, and next year we won't make a big free agency splash, but we already have the talent on our team to retain. Realistically we'd lose Bradham, Glenn and maybe one other to retain Dareus if he makes what would be expected. That's already assuming Harvin is gone after this season and Clay gets restructured. I'm not on the "restructure everybody" bandwagon though. Clay's restructure is already planned by the team. It just converts a roster bonus to a signing bonus. It was done that way to prevent Miami from matching. Edited July 10, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Realistically we'd lose Bradham, Glenn and maybe one other to retain Dareus if he makes what would be expected. That's already assuming Harvin is gone after this season and Clay gets restructured. I'm not on the "restructure everybody" bandwagon though. Clay's restructure is already planned by the team. It just converts a roster bonus to a signing bonus. It was done that way to prevent Miami from matching. I guarantee they have thought about this 100 times more than you. The great thing about Daddy Warbucks is that he doesn't care how much actual cash he puts out. So he can spend a lot in a bonus or huge salary in first year which makes the player happy because he's got it in his pocket and then the next few years he doesn't have to pay as much. I understand everything about the salary cap but there are ways to mess with each year about what you are spending and what you will spend that allows a lot of creativity in signing a good amount of large contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) Nice read and interesting statistical basis. At some point, if we keep drafting well, we won't be able to keep everyone. Hopefully by then the success of the team will help with the contract situations. Hopefully they read the Albert Haynesworth letter. Edited July 10, 2015 by H2o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 I guarantee they have thought about this 100 times more than you. The great thing about Daddy Warbucks is that he doesn't care how much actual cash he puts out. So he can spend a lot in a bonus or huge salary in first year which makes the player happy because he's got it in his pocket and then the next few years he doesn't have to pay as much. I understand everything about the salary cap but there are ways to mess with each year about what you are spending and what you will spend that allows a lot of creativity in signing a good amount of large contracts. Feel free to describe how that is going to work because the salary cap rules are pretty straightforward. You and the Bills brass can think about it as much as you/they want, but the rules and numbers are the same. Too many fans think there are magical ways around the cap, but ultimately there's only so much a team can do within the rules. Sure there are ways to push off cap hits for players you want to keep, but really can't afford. That eventually comes back around to bite the team though. The only reasonable time to do it is when pushing for a championship and the Bills don't have a QB in place to warrant that course of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 We need to draft well and replace one of those guys...ideally not by losing one to free agency and trade them ahead of time for a nice pick. With gilmore under contract next year what if he has a monster year in rex's defense? Maybe we could pry a late first or for sure a second for him? To continue to field a competitive team we need to draft well and need lots of high draft picks for better chances at high end talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Feel free to describe how that is going to work because the salary cap rules are pretty straightforward. You and the Bills brass can think about it as much as you/they want, but the rules and numbers are the same. Too many fans think there are magical ways around the cap, but ultimately there's only so much a team can do within the rules. Sure there are ways to push off cap hits for players you want to keep, but really can't afford. That eventually comes back around to bite the team though. The only reasonable time to do it is when pushing for a championship and the Bills don't have a QB in place to warrant that course of action.I think the point the poster was trying to make is that there are some very intelligent people working for the Bills. People who this is there main profession and understand things about salary caps way more than we do. These same people that work for the Bills have a plan. I am willing to enjoy this year and let the guys in the FO keep our good players. I also trust that they will find us some young talent and that our coaches will coach them up. Having said all that, of course you lose some players to FA. Nature of the beast. Next Man Up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Feel free to describe how that is going to work because the salary cap rules are pretty straightforward. You and the Bills brass can think about it as much as you/they want, but the rules and numbers are the same. Too many fans think there are magical ways around the cap, but ultimately there's only so much a team can do within the rules. Sure there are ways to push off cap hits for players you want to keep, but really can't afford. That eventually comes back around to bite the team though. The only reasonable time to do it is when pushing for a championship and the Bills don't have a QB in place to warrant that course of action. So you would suggest what? The whole tired arguement of "but the quarterback doooooooo" is just that....OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 Gilmore is going into his 4th year, and he has shown flashes for periods of time. BUT, he hasn't really had the big year you might think a #1 might have had. Looking at his first three years vs Darius....and there is not comparison, the big guy did better. Gilmore needs to show a full year at all pro performance level to get the crazy money. He hasn't shown that in three years, however. The Bills PR machine would have you believe in that, but I just haven't seen it yet. You are right, but with our luck, this will be his breakout year and there will be teams throwing money at him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 (edited) Feel free to describe how that is going to work because the salary cap rules are pretty straightforward. You and the Bills brass can think about it as much as you/they want, but the rules and numbers are the same. Too many fans think there are magical ways around the cap, but ultimately there's only so much a team can do within the rules. Sure there are ways to push off cap hits for players you want to keep, but really can't afford. That eventually comes back around to bite the team though. The only reasonable time to do it is when pushing for a championship and the Bills don't have a QB in place to warrant that course of action. The answer is within your post. "There's only so much a team can do within the rules". They haven't done everything they can do to minimize cap issues - yet. We will see it though. Edited July 10, 2015 by What a Tuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 until we land a franchise qb and have to pay him...everyone will fit under the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 (edited) The answer is within your post. "There's only so much a team can do within the rules". They haven't done everything they can do to minimize cap issues - yet. We will see it though.That's absolutely not true. They've spent somewhat foolishly on Shady, Clay and several others. What they haven't done is shown restraint or drafted particularly well. So you would suggest what? The whole tired arguement of "but the quarterback doooooooo" is just that....OLD BS. There's a time and place to go "all in" and it isn't with Matt Cassel at QB. I think the point the poster was trying to make is that there are some very intelligent people working for the Bills. People who this is there main profession and understand things about salary caps way more than we do. These same people that work for the Bills have a plan. I am willing to enjoy this year and let the guys in the FO keep our good players. I also trust that they will find us some young talent and that our coaches will coach them up. Having said all that, of course you lose some players to FA. Nature of the beast. Next Man Up. Ok. And no NFL teams have a poor plan? No NFL front offices make any bad decisions? Puh-lease. I'll call it like I see it without any Red-and-Blue tinted glasses. Edited July 11, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted July 11, 2015 Share Posted July 11, 2015 Interesting read and takes from you guys. Don't forget they can cut a few guys and save some cap. I also believe Fred will go out as a Bill at the end of this year.m that's $2 mil a year we won't be spending, and Darby will be cheap for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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