billsfan89

It seems very negligible in terms of player safety. I mean how many OT games would go past the 10 minute mark? 5-10 a year maybe? That's not really going to make an impact, but you probably increase the amount of ties a year from 0-1 to 4 or more which is really going to impact the game.

I really liked the Titans coming out of this season. The defense and offense are loaded with talent and they massively upgraded their coaching. I projected them to make the playoffs and compete for their division. They honestly should take care of the Bills even if their offense struggles.

Haha, I totally missed that, just got back from a wisdom tooth pull at the dentist barely able to think at the moment.

You are a prisoner of the moment. Lots of people are calling Star a space eater and a lot of people think Star is having little to no impact so you are blending the term to think that people are just using the term to cover for someone's bad play. Watch the difference in the Bills run defense last year when "Space Eater" Darues was there vs. when he left. The Bills had a lot of bad years defending the run when they didn't have a capable space eater after Pat Williams left. The term is basically a catch all for a DT that is a good run defender. A guy like Snacks Harrison is a great space eater who holds the line consistently against double teams and makes it very difficult for a team to run up the middle. To look at Star's impact I think you have to take a look at how effective the Bills rushing defense is. I think the Bills run defense this season with Star being a space eater has been so so. The team has given up 3.2, 4.2, 2.3, and 4.4 yards per carry in their 4 games. That's not bad but not great either. But the term isn't code for bad player it is more so trying to describe a role a player is performing that might not results in defensive stats.

The Bills drafting in 2017 and 2018 has been really good so far on the early returns. In 2017 there looks to be 3 very legit starters. White is a number one corner, Dawkins a solid LT, and Milano a starting caliber linebacker. Even Zay Jones still has time to turn into a productive player. The early returns on 2018 are pretty promising. Allen the jury is still out but Edumonds is showing a lot of promise while Phillips and Johnson are off to good starts while Neal could also be a late round gem. Factoring out Allen for the moment the past two drafts could yield 6-7 starters (possibly 8 if Zay ever develops) that's pretty dam good drafting. Overall I am much more worried about the teams pro-personnel decision making than anything else. This team will need 4 or more impact free agents on the offensive side of the ball and while we have the cap space to make those moves I am not confident that money will be spent properly.

PFF might actually not. That's not a knock on PFF but mainly the limitations of football analytics. PFF does not know what Star is supposed to do within the scheme. PFF grades a lot of their D-line metrics based off of getting past the line of scrimmage. Star shuffling along the line and trying to occupy a gap might seem like the is getting taken out of a play. But the scheme might have called for clearing the way for a linebacker. I don't think Star is doing all that well but I don't think he is doing bad either. Star is a space eater who attacks blockers however he lacks the gravity that a really dominant space eater commands. He certainly is overpaid.

Maybe TBD's resident cap experts can chime in but would there be any positive or negative cap impact on trading Clay before the deadline? Right now the Bills can cut Charles Clay in 2019 and save 4.5 million on his 9 million cap number and be clear of any remaining cap charges in 2020. If the Bills were to trade Clay for a mid to late round pick to Cincy or some other team does that save the Bills anything significant in 2019? I think if you can get a 5th round pick and there is lets say a bigger cap savings in 2019 from trading him then you have to consider it. But if there isn't a cap savings and you can't get a highish pick for him then you are better off keeping on of your only decent receiving option.

Ties aren't the end of the world for regular season games but the shortening of the OT quarter to 10 minutes is basically making it much more likely for teams to tie and 5 minutes of additional game time isn't exactly going to massively do anything. Right now 10 minutes allows teams to exchange field goals and leave about 2 minutes on the clock. If the team that kicked the first field goal can't score then the game ends in a tie, but if you added the extra 5 minutes you would allow at least 1-2 more possessions and lower the likelihood of a tie. I don't think you have to get rid of ties but the solution should be to make them more rare. College overtime is way to gimmicky and doesn't feel like a natural extension of the game as it is played in regulation. It's much more similar to hockey's shootouts which are gimmicky and un-reflective of the game (but at least are confined to the regular season.) The NFL has a good system they just need to allow teams to play a full 15 minutes. The big issue with 10 minutes is that if two teams kick a field goal those drives usually eat up about 4 minutes each and that only leaves about 1 possession left. Going back to the 15 minute format would allow each team with at least 1 additional possession with plenty of time on the clock. If teams can't score in that time frame then fine end it in a tie but at least you have a format that limits ties and isn't gimmicky.

OT should be 15 minutes in its current format. I like the idea of a field goal on the opening drive not instantly ending games as once teams got into sub 45ish yard field goal range teams would basically play uber conservative (Inch the ball up a few yards and stop playing for a TD) and kick a field goal. Now teams are encouraged to actually go for TD's on opening drives. I don't know why they shortened it to 10 minutes as that is basically enabling ties. If team A kicks a field goal and team B responds with a field goal odds are those drives are going to be about 4-5 minutes each. Which means that when team A gets the ball back there isn't much time left in a 10 minute period. Whereas if OT was 15 minutes you probably would have 6-7 minutes left in Overtime where a field goal would win it. I have no idea why the NFL decided to lower the amount of time in overtime, what problem were they trying to solve? Hockey does 5 on 5 golden goal overtime for the playoffs. The 3 on 3 and shoot out is gimmicky but at least it is confined to the regular season.

I agree somewhat, I do seriously question McBeane's ability to bring in free agents. But in the 2017 off-season where McD was having a big hand in free agent acquisitions they did hit on Hyde, Proyer, and Haush. Although the 2018 free agents are looking pretty poor McBeane only had 2 contracts above 3 million dollars a season and although Murphy and Star aren't looking like they were worth their contracts they are only 25% into the season and Murphy's deal is pretty easy to get out of. But the sample size for what McBeane can do with cap space is small. I hope their results are more similar to 2017 where they found 3 starters in free agency than it is to 2018 where they found 1 starter who is overpaid for the roles he provides (Star) and a player whose impact is more so that of a good role player as opposed to the starter he is paid for (Murphy.) The Bills in my mind will need to find at least 3-4 starters on offense via free agency and probably some help on the pass rush side of things via free agency and maybe a slot corner too. Overall they have the cap space to make these signings but the jury is still out if they can find the players at the appropriate price.

The team also has a playoff appearance under McD something no coach has done since Wade.

4 games in he looks great (Although tonight he got carried by his supporting cast) jury is still out and I have the upmost confidence that Mahomes wouldn't look nearly as good in the Bills system with the Bills supporting talent.

Losman and Allen share a somewhat similar draft profile. Both were big arm QB's, good mobility, came from not so good teams, they both had good scores on the Wonderlic (Losman scored a 31 and Allen scored a 37) and they even shared some accuracy and footwork concerns. But Allen is a different beast than Losman. For one Allen has maybe the strongest arm to come out of college since Cam Newton or JaMarcus Russell and arguably has one of the strongest arms to ever be scouted. Losman had a strong arm coming out of college but it was not unreal like Losman's. Another big difference is the intangibles. Losman was thought to have a bad attitude coming out of college. Allen's intangibles are thought to be very good. Another significant difference is Losman's throwing motion was a bigger concern than Allen's. There are also some small differences in favor of Allen as he is three inches taller and just a bigger overall player. Although the accuracy and college production issues were less significant in the case of Losman so there is some positives in favor of Losman but I think that overall they aren't very similar coming out of the draft. Allen is a lot more raw coming out of the draft but Allen also is a much higher ceiling player. Losman had some very positive attributes coming out of college, he certainly was a bit more polished a product, but he was not nearly as tantalizing as Allen and came with big attitude issues to boot.

Zay has come a long way from the awful 2017 campaign he actually looks like an NFL player out there. I hope that as Allen gets more comfortable and Zay feels things out a bit more (remember he is coming off an injury) that the more significant production from Zay will come. If Zay has a decent 50ish receptions 500ish yard season I think he certainly will prove he is worthy of being on the roster for one more season to see if he can develop in year 3. Sometimes player development takes time. I don't think Zay will ever live up to his draft position but hopefully he can be a contributor.

I wouldn't write the Colts or At Jets game as losses, nor would I write off the Lions game as a loss either. The Dolphins got off to a hot starts but neither Fins game are loses either. Overall I think the Bills have at least 7 more winable games on the schedule (now that doesn't mean they will win all 7 of those game) Both NE games, the Bears, Titans, and Jags games to me seem like 5 unlikely to win games. The rest the Bills have a chance.

Everyone here (and pretty much anywhere NFL related) loves to overreact to everything positively or negatively. After the bad losses the Bills should fire everyone and trade Allen for a 7th if we could be so lucky. After the Vikings game to quote Rodney Dangerfield from the end of Caddy Shack "We're all going to get laid." Coaches will often say they look at seasons in quarters so after 4 games what are you composed thoughts and impressions about the team thus far? Positives 1- The defensive turn around. After 6 God awful defensive quarters the team has been pretty good and consistent defensively. If this team has any hope of trying to win games and develop Josh Allen they will need a consistent defensive effort 2- Josh Allen. Josh Allen has not looked good in 2 out of his 3 starts. But he has flashed athletic ability and he has put together some really nice throws. I think that considering how raw a prospect Allen was coming out of college it isn't surprising to see Allen come out and look very uneven. 3- Young defenders. Phillips, Johnson, Milano, Edumonds, White, and the continued development of a young core of defensive players emerging gives hope that this strong defensive play can be sustained beyond this season. Hopefully Shaq gets added to that list of good young players. 4- Zay Jones. Zay hasn't light the world on fire but he is competently putting together a decent season, after Zay's mental breakdown and injury issues it is good to see him not only playing but probably becoming the teams best WR out of an abysmal core. I could honestly see Zay developing into a quality slot receiver. Negatives. 1- Peterman. The fact that Peterman is one snap away from playing is unforgivable. The fact that this staff got fooled by per-season Peterman twice is horrendous. I don't mind having Peterman as a third string QB but why on Earth have they not explored a veteran backup option? 2- The O-line The Bills might have the worst O-line in football. I know the All-22 has been a bit kinder to the O-line esp in the LA loss (no word on the Green Bay loss as I type this) but watching this team you can see they are losing the battle in the trenches rather consistently in every game but the Vikings game. Playing a rookie behind this O-line is something that could seriously stunt Allen's footwork development. 3- The skill position core. The WR core in particular is outright bad and might be the worst unit in the league certainly bottom 5. KB isn't doing much and Zay Jones putting together a decent season is probably the best thing going which says a lot. The rest of the team is Andre Holmes a JAG veteran and a bunch of young players not doing a whole lot. Clay and the tight ends are decent if you had good receivers but they have limited impact since the receiving core is awful. 4- Shady might be done. Shady was/is a dynamic offensive weapon, one of the things that could have made the skill position core's relative weakness palpable is if Shady was still an elite weapon out of the backfield. With his injury and at his age/miles it isn't looking to good for him early. Granted this is only 25% into the season so there is still plenty of time for him to turn it around but it is sad to see him get off to such a bad start. Overall the Bills are who we thought they were a team that mortgaged veteran players to get out from under contracts and accrue draft capital. They then spent that draft capital on two trade ups to acquire Allen and Edumonds (Cordy Glenn and picks 21, 22, 53, 56, and 65 for Allen, Edumonds, and a 5th round pick.) Those trade ups and the massive dead cap really crippled the teams ability to build a more complete roster. If you trade away a lot of productive veteran players for draft capital (Which also incurs short term dead cap) and then do two big trade ups with that draft capital then there are going to be massive holes on parts of the roster. The Bills are looking to be who we thought they probably were. A team that has some key pieces in place but will have to wait until the dead cap clears in order to build up other parts of their roster.

Luckily he will only get a better feel for the game by playing more. It is going to be a very up and down season for Allen. This is to be expected for a very raw rookie.

Tampa actually did invest a lot of their draft picks and free agency dollars into their defense this past off-season. Surprised they haven't at least looked competent.

In the 2013 draft where Geno Smith and EJ led the pack I certainly think a player of Allen's profile would have been a top 5 pick. I think in most draft classes he isn't viewed as the top 1-2 selection at QB.

I don't think they can, as long as a QB is able to scramble and avoid a hit tackling a QB via a straight line is the best way of attaining a sack. This rule is way too hard and way too burdensome for defenders. There have been defenders who have hit the QB with their shoulder and because of the way they fell they got flagged. When one human being is taking down another human being in a matter of seconds it is almost impossible to expect them to make last second adjustments to how they fall onto that person. This directive is effectively making a QB insanely harder to sack in a manner that is completely unfair and almost impossible for defenders.

The NFL still dominates Sundays. But the NFL its self has crippled its own products ability to continue to grow with overexposure (Those dumb Thursday games) and poor management of external issues (The Ray Rice debacle and the anthem protests.) The NFL still does insane TV ratings and the ratings this year so far have done well (after two years of declines the NFL's ratings are either holding steady or slightly up.) Overall I don't think the NFL is necessarily less popular but rather that the NFL has handled its business poorly and it has turned away some casual fans.

The video doesn't make sense because the game is played at speed and these defenders can't make these adjustments in matter of well below a second. At this point you should just make hitting the QB illegal because these new rules are just an insane over correction.

Hyde and Proyer are a very legit top 5 safety combo in the league, so to underplay them as "scrappy" is under playing them and as you mentioned White is a stud at corner. That's a pretty good base to start a secondary with, toss in the fact that Johnson seems to be playing well and that adds a second pretty good reliable corner. If you have 4 very legit players who can all play at a high level that's a pretty dam good secondary if they are all healthy. IF Johnson is playing at a high level I would classify them as a top 5 secondary.

I wonder what WR's will be available on the trade market if any. I think that if Allen continues to progress well the team will have to at least scan the market for WR's as it is likely the weakest group on the team.

From 2006 to 2010 the only notable young QB's that came into the league were Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Flacco. I would argue that only Ryan is really an elite player out of the 3. That's 5 consecutive draft classes with a subpar influx of QB's into the league. That's certainly going to help those older QB's seem at the top of the league longer.