billsfan89

Hard to say if 60 is a bad spot for needs as the draft shakes out significantly differently than most people project. I think IOL is actually a bigger need than most think. Right now David Edwards is the starting LG I can live with that so to speak but upgrading that spot and improving the depth of the offensive line by having Edwards back on the bench is a two fold positive. If the Bills get a solid WR at pick 28 and at pick 60 none of the top 8-9 WR’s are on the board and there’s not a good DT or DE there IOL is a good place to upgrade the offensive lines starting five and depth. If this team is going to be less dependent on Diggs and Josh throwing than having a mauling offensive line with good depth is necessary.

I think Shakir is going to be on the field heavy 70% or more of snaps but I do think about half of those snaps are going to be in the slot and I think Samuel is going to have a similar split but will be on the field less as I think in 2 TE sets he comes off the field. The Bills desperately need at least one WR in the draft that can come and play on the boundary consistently and take in at least 70-80 targets. I think a second WR drafted between picks 128-144 would be enough depth but if the value at pick 60 is great and this team doubles up that's fine with me. I just don't think you should pass up on other better players at positions of need just because you "have to" take a WR again.

I think they likely view Shakir and Samuel splitting time at the slot and outside. Just my two cents but I don't think they are going to use Shakir or Samuel as a WR4 and draft two WR's picks 28 and 60 to play most of the boundary snaps. Shakir is simply too good to not be a primary slot WR and I doubt an organization like the Bills are going to pay Samuel 8-10 million a season for 3 years to be a gadget WR4. It would be insanely foolish to spend so much money on a Deonte Harty replacement. I do think they are going WR at or around pick 28 to have a WR that's going primarily to play on the boundary while Shakir and Samuel split the other boundary snaps.

I too would be fine if they get good value at pick 60 if they "double dip" at WR. But I also don't think they should "reach" for a player at WR at pick 60. IF they draft a WR at pick 28 or thereabout I think they shouldn't ignore other areas of the roster that need help just to take a WR. After addressing WR early their need at WR while there is more so a depth need in my opinion. Assuming the team has a similar amount of targets as they did last season (about 545 which was the targets the team had last year) IF The Bills targets break out like the list below then the targets available to a WR drafted at pick 60 may only be in the 40-50 range. Kincaid- 110 targets (20 target increase from 2023) Shakir- 90 targets (doubling his targets but given that Shakir didn't start consistently playing until about 7 games into the season seems reasonable for him to take on WR2 type targets) Samuel- 70 targets (seems like he will "absorb" Gabe Davis targets) Rookie WR drafted at pick 28- 70 targets (seems reasonable to project a rookie to take on a bit less than half of Diggs targets) Knox- 50 targets (had 36 last year and was hurt for a chunk of games 14 more seems a good estimate) Cook- 50 targets (4 less than he had last season but I think with Ty Johnson as the backup Cooks targets stay flat) Hollins- 30 targets (seems like he will absorb a lot of the WR4/5 targets that went to Harty and Sherfield) Ty Johnson- 30 targets (absorbing a little bit of Cooks targets as well as the targets that went to Murray/Harris/himself last year) That gets you to 500 targets so there's only about 45 targets remaining and lets say injury hits you and you lose 50 targets for those above players you have about 95 targets but you have to figure that 35-50 of those targets are going to be absorbed by Morris, RB3 and Shorter (who will likely get more targets as players go down) which kind of leaves you with about 40-50 targets for a second drafted WR. It's a lot to spend a late 2nd round pick which can be used on a high end D-line or interior O-line prospect that may have more impact than a WR not getting a whole lot of targets. You probably could find a solid depth WR to take on 40-50 targets around pick 128. TLDR: It may not be necessary given the possible target distribution to take a second WR at pick 60. So if the value is not there at WR at pick 60 go with another need and draft a WR around pick 128 to fill that depth.

Hollins is going to occupy that Jake Kumerow and Trent Sherfield WR4/5 special teams ace slot. He's a nice option to toss out on the boundary for a game or two if there are injuries but he's still going to occupy one of the 5-6 WR spots. Sharkir and Samuel will also occupy spots. So really you only have 2-3 "open" WR spots and if they draft WR's at picks 28 and 60 that is going to get them to 5 WR's which is what they usually carry. If they want a WR6 they are going to feel comfortable with Shorter competing with UDFA's and a kick the tires vet. Regardless of what you personally think of Shorter the Bills regime drafted him 150 overall in the previous draft which is only two slots lower than Shakir who was drafted 148 in 2022. Shorter didn't play at all in 2023 so he effectively red shirted his rookie season and will get another off-season fully in with the team to polish up his game. I think the regime likely feels comfortable with Shorter at WR6 even if you think he's not that great they may not even carry six WR's so if they draft two high up they probably aren't burning a third pick on roster spot they may not even carry especially when they have a lot more depth needs this year than they did going into last years draft. I personally am fine with a WR6 spot being a competition between Shorter, UDFA's and a low end "kick the tires" vet. Shorter is a very raw player but he's also a massive human being at 6 foot 4 and 229 pounds with 4.55 speed. Seems to me that athletic profile can make for a good special teams player and with another year to develop may have some receiving upside in 2025. I am not really liking the idea of the Bills drafting a player to compete for a WR6 spot the team may not carry.

I don't think the Bills will likely be able to roster 3 WR's taken in the draft, they usually only roster 5 at most 6 WR's. Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are likely locks to make the roster, Shorter is also there as an option. So if they draft WR's at picks 28 and 60 there will be 5 WR's already a lock to make the roster with Shorter there as a WR6. Seems like this team which has a lack of depth in other areas of the roster is going to not burn a mid-round or even later round pick on a WR after taking two up high just to have competition for Shorter at WR6. They will always however add in some UDFA's and a "kick the tires" vet at WR like Andy Isabella last year to compete for PS spots and maybe give Shorter some competition. But spending 3 picks at WR is not likely in my opinion. I think a "double dip" at picks 28 and 60 is unlikely unless the value at pick 60 is insane. I think more "realistically" they are likely to go WR at pick 28 or a smaller trade up to the 26-24 range and then address another need at pick 60 (likely D-line or safety) and then go WR again somewhere between picks 128-163 for increased depth and development.

You could do worse than Robinson as far as kicking the tires on a player but greater than 95% chance he is washed. He's not had a productive season since his very good 2020 season. He's been on 3 teams since 2020 and while he's not ancient at just 31 years old he is not young either. He also comes with a big injury history. My only optimistic case for him would be that he is coming off a fairly healthy season and at age 31 he may have a year left in the tank, plus as a camp body for the minimum deal you could do way worse. I would also say that while his numbers were garbage in 2023 despite staying healthy and starting 17 games, he was mired in a really bad Steelers offense with bad QB's and not the best schemes. Maybe if he is better health wise and in a better passing attack he can rebound? I doubt it, but like I said you are brining him in to be a camp body and maybe a PS vet.

Trading down usually works out more frequently but there’s still risk in both options. Trading 2-3 additional picks in that years draft plus a future premium pick is tying up 5 draft choices 3-4 of which are high likely high value picks into a single player. Now if that single player is great it’s worth the cost and players drafted in the top 5-10 are better prospects than you find elsewhere in the draft generally speaking. But you also risk losing 5 draft picks and likely 3-4 premium ones if that one single player doesn’t work out. Of course while the NFL is about depth and largely about avoiding weaknesses on a roster there’s still a need for elite playmakers on both sides of the ball. So when you trade down while you get more picks you get lesser quality prospects which in turn can lead to more decent but not spectacular players. You also run the risk of missing out on elite players that can make a difference. You need at least 3 or so elite players on both sides of the ball generally speaking. In the end I prefer trading down over trading up for any non-QB. I think especially when you have a regime good at drafting and developing players you probably want more cracks at finding good players as opposed to one big “All In” swing. Especially this season when the Bills roster is more shallow and in need of cheap talent it’s probably better to get more top level picks. Last draft the Bills were only able to roster 3 players from the draft of their six selections two were waived and claimed by the Texans and Shorter was effectively “red shirted” for the year being on IR. This year the Bills could easily have room for 7-10 drafted players showing you that the depth is not quite as good as it was.

Getting more punch and speed at WR is a need for Dallas. Lamb is just 25 but the cupboard is bare after him. Cooks is an aging supplemental player while the rest of the players behind them are not very inspiring. For both short and long term considerations they probably need to invest a major pick into that position

I still think you need a dynamic receiving option that draws double teams and attention and can make plays regularly. But the Bills can work around not having Diggs by utilizing Kincaid as the primary receiver and then spreading the ball around to Shakir, Samuel, Knox, Cook, a rookie drafted highly and the supplemental players like Hollins, Ty Johnson and Shorter. I think you need two WR’s in the draft. One drafted up high to play the boundary consistently and absorb 70-80 targets efficiently and one got depth that can be drafted in rounds 4-5. I don’t think you need to draft a WR at 28 and 60 because Shakir is only a WR3 and Samuel is a gadget WR4.

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise. I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

Solid mock very sensible. Always hard to do a mock because there’s 32 different teams with 32 different boards so it’s just guess work. But your mock makes sense. I do think that if the Bills were to trade down it would be ideal. In this scenario the Bills at pick 36 would still have a ton of quality options available to them at WR. Franklin, Legette and McConkey are still on the board and there’s only 3 picks ahead of them and I doubt all 3 teams take WR’s and even in that unlikely scenario there’s still other players they can pivot to. I also do think the Bills likely would have to toss back pick 204 in that trade which I am fine with. Picks 28 and 204 for picks 36 and 78 seems like a good deal for both sides.

I would argue that Brady was also mostly a game manager plus in that 2018 Super Bowl run as well. The Pats team was ground and pound with a great defense and a clutch QB that didn’t make mistakes. That 2018 team was built much more similar to those early 2001-2004 teams. I think the narrative has shifted far too much against Bill B as the way some fans and pundits make it seem as though “Brady was the system” which ignores the fact that 4 of those titles including the last one were won on the strength of great defenses, great special teams and a strong ground game complemented by a QB who took care of the ball and made plays when needed. It is not a knock on Brady as Billy B had to shift the team away from a defense oriented approach starting in 2007 and all the way up until about 2017 and in that time they made 5 Super Bowls and won 2 with a team built around Brady and a powerful offense. The defenses were not dominant defenses in that era but rather more so solid units whose strength was forcing field goals in the redzone and creating turnovers.

I think if McD burns out in Buffalo without winning a ring his best career trajectory for a second run is Tom Caughlin. Caughlin had a great run with the expansion Jaguars, from just their second season as a franchise in 1996 Caughlin took the team to the AFCCG and then made the playoffs the next 3 seasons with one more trip to the AFCCG. Then Caughlin had 3 straight losing seasons from 2000-2002 and it just was time to move on. Then in 2004 the Giants hire him and he has a great run there . After a lackluster first year Caughlin put up 4 straight playoff appearances from 2005-2008 with two division titles and a Super Bowl. Then after 8 and 10 win seasons that did not yield a playoff birth in 2009-2010 they go on that second miracle Super Bowl run in 2011. McD if he’s unsuccessful in getting the Bills a Super Bowl and he leaves will definitely get another shot similar to how Caughlin turned an expansion team into a contender for a 4 year period and was given a shot to resurrect the Giants. McD just has to hope the luck goes his way.

Allen probably feels good not having to “deal with” Diggs. Demanding coworkers for anyone can be a lot to deal with let alone in the biggest pro sport in the nation

I don’t think the Bills necessarily need a “big” WR but they need someone that can be effective on the boundary and doesn’t “need” to be in the slot. I think right now you have your top 2 WR as players who are more effective in the slot but can play outside. Diggs wasn’t a big body player but he was a boundary WR most of the time. I think they have bigger guys in Hollins and Shorter who are both 6 foot 4 and over 200 pounds (Hollins 209 and Shorter a whopping 229) so they have options for bigger players in some situations but they need a more consistent playmaker on the boundary.

I think they likely view Samuel as eating up the targets for Gabe. I know they aren’t exactly the same player but I think they likely view both Shakir and Samuel as splitting time in the slot and at the boundary. What they really need is a solid boundary WR who can efficiently take on 70-80 targets and turn that into 50+ receptions and 650-750 yards 5-6 TD’s. You are going to be then counting on Shakir having more production on better volume, Kincaid taking on a bit more in terms of 20 additional targets, and Samuel having a solid season taking the 70-80 targets Gabe has gotten in the past two seasons and making them more efficient. You don’t necessarily need a rookie to come in an replace all or most of Diggs production but just some of it. I then think adding a boundary WR in round 4-5 as depth rounds out the WR core as out probably need another pure boundary guy to spot start if needed

I also trust McD to find a safety in rounds 4-5 this edge class is not bad but it’s not very deep either

A solid sensible mock, I do however think that pick 60 is going to be defensive line and not safety. I think they have mentioned in the past that they don’t necessarily look for safeties with high athletic profiles but rather players who are smart and can execute the scheme. Poyer and Hyde were about a 5 on the RAS which is a below average score. Even Hamlin, Edwards and Rapp all are around 7 on the RAS which is fairly average to slightly above average. I think you are likely to see a safety taken in the 128-163 range as you can probably find a less athletic smart safety to add depth and develop to take over for Edwards in 2025. If I also had to nitpick think that they likely aren’t going twice on offensive line. They generally carry 9 offensive linemen maybe 10 max. I think the top 7 are locks with the starting 5 plus Van Denmark and Anderson likely to make the roster as reserves. I also think between Collins and Clapp they have one of those two make the roster. Which assuming Collins makes the roster puts you at 8 so one more prospect added to the back end depth seems more realistic. I think you are also going to see a corner drafted in somewhere likely at pick 204 if this draft plays out that way.

I think WR at pick 28 is likely and a DE/DT at picks 60 and 128 is what will follow and then another WR at pick 133. Then I think at pick 144 they go safety and offensive line at pick 160 and corner at pick 163. At picks 200 and 204 I think they go RB and CB again. 248 is just Bpa as that’s just a flyer pick anyway. I think they draft for depth and quantity as McBeane has to know they are in need of cheap talent to backfill their cap as the 2022 draft class is looking like an expensive one to retain.

Looking at the roster I see room for 8-11 players from this draft class. Just breaking it down a bit I can't see them drafting anything other than a 7th round flyer on TE, QB, LB or K/P (even though I think K/P is a need I don't think they view it that way). As far as the rest of the position groups I think they have room on the roster for WR: Room for 1-2 players - Biggest need on the team, they usually carry 5-6 so with Shakir, Samuel and Hollins as locks and Shorter as a probably that leaves room for 1-2 players there. OL: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 9-10, I think with Collins and Clapp added to the bench and Van Denmark and Anderson there they will likely only draft one player to be in the mix to push Collins and Clapp in camp and add some development. RB: Room for 1 player - They usually carry 3 RB's and right now only Cook and Ty Johnson are there. They don't need to spend a high pick here but they could easily add a depth RB in round 6. DT: Room for 1-2 players - They right now have Oliver, Daquon and Johnson at DT, they usually carry 5. Likely they are going to draft 1 if not 2 players here. They need longer term stability and development here. DE: Room for 1-2 players - They have AJE, Groot and Von as locks and they usually carry 5-6 DE's, I think they probably like Kingsley Johnathan and Toohill to battle it out for that 5th spot. I think they want a rookie in on that 4th DE spot and I could see them drafting 2 if they want to carry 6 here. Although I think them carrying 6 is unlikely. S: Room for 1 player - They have Rapp and Edwards as starters and they usually carry 5. With Cam Lewis likely occupying one spot as a ST player and Hamlin occupying one backup spot, they definitely need to bulk up the depth and develop someone behind Edwards whose only a one year rental. CB: Room for 1-2 players - They usually carry 6 CB's and they currently run 4 deep with Douglas, Elam, Benford and Taron locks, they also have Ingram whose been developing on the backend bench and PS the past two seasons. I think they easily need one if not two corners for depth and development. I don't think they go 4 DL players at most they go with 3 so I think 11 players drafted/rostered if they do a trade down and acquire a pick is unlikely. I also think they may only draft one CB as I think they like Ingram as the CB6.

This is just one mans opinion but every year the opinions on the NFL draft class vary so widely. Some years you have some pundits saying this is a terrible class while others say this class is super deep. The NFL draft class has such varying opinions more so than the NBA or NHL draft whose opinions on those sports draft classes tend to be more uniform (in a given year you can tell which draft classes are more highly or less regarded for example this years NBA draft class is viewed by most as a "weak" draft class). I think largely because football has 22 starting position plus kickers and punters and even in the 22 starting positions there are variances (like players might be suited for a 3-4 role or a 4-3 role or zone vs. man schemes) and role players plus special teams. You probably are scouting for 35-40 position types and roles on a NFL draft. The only consistent trend I am seeing among pundits and "draft experts" is that the WR class is very good and the QB class is great at the top and a crap shoot after the first two prospects. Everything else is such a variance as to how good or deep the overall class is and that is in line with most drafts.

Although I think WR is the teams primary need if they go D-Line or O-Line esp via a trade down I am fine with it. Just don’t go safety