billsfan89

16.5 is a wild spread. Because largely even if the game is a blowout and the Bills are cruising up 24 points with 8 minutes left in the game it is very possible NOLA takes the ball scores a TD and gets a 2pt conversion (to make it a 2 score game) and the Bills just grind the clock out and its a 16 point win and the Bills seemingly in control of the game with a 3 possession lead don't cover on a late TD and conversion. There's also the possibility that due to an early turnover or special teams mistake the Bills don't get a 2-3 score lead until the second half and NOLA stays within 17 and kicks a field goal late to cover it down to 14. An average NFL game each team only gets around 10-12 possessions with 8-9 possessions being the lower end. To ask a team to win by a 3 score margin in a game is hard esp given the prevalence of garbage time scores.

I wanted to go to a game in September/October that wasn't a Thursday game and I saw the Saints game figuring the tickets would be the cheapest of the early slate of games. Turns out those tickets were the most expensive...

He had a great week 2 against the Jets and was solid against the Fins who boast a top 3-5 WR combo in the league. I think people just remember week 1 where he like almost everyone not named Ed Oliver had a bad week.

Last year they were a firmly top 5 Offensive line. I would say only the Lions and Eagles had a better oline firmly. This year they are picking up right where they left off

Is that a good or bad thing?

I also wonder if getting Mad Max back adding some speed at corner will help.

You gotta play the long game, you need to have all starters as fresh and as healthy as possible for the playoffs. You also probably want to get the role players more experience where there's more margin of error in case they are needed later in the season. The Bills need to take them out like they did the Jets. Defer the ball and go up 3 scores 17-20 points by half and then build the lead out to 24+ going into the Q4 and grind the clock in garbage time. No need to risk injury when there's not much of a difference between a 25 point 4 score lead and a 35 point lead...

The Giants at 0-3 need some sort of spark and it wasn't going to be long before the ownership wanted to see the rookie. 2 out of 3 games the Giants offense looked terrible (and the one game they looked good was against the league's worst defense). It's a desperation move but a needed one for a desperate team.

CTE is also linked to depression and suicide. Rudi unfortunately played in an era where we were just beginning to understand the severity of concussions. So I do wonder if this is a suicide could CTE have played a factor? He was a very good player too, sad to see someone so young pass away.

I don't think there's anything "wrong" with the Bills defense just yet. KC's defense is still very good and as you mentioned they have great coaching and their ST unit is solid. Their issue is that if their offense is above average like it has been the last couple of years they will need to be an elite defense and with their talent level being eroded a bit the past couple of off-seasons and Chris Jones possibly losing a third of a step it could be that they are just very good but not elite which could be an issue. As far as the Bills the talent level to me is good it should be a lower top 10 defense if reasonably healthy. There's been 5 key players missing. The PED Twins are still suspended both should provide some depth and in particular Hoecht should provide some versatility to the D-line. Mad Max the teams first round pick should help at corner when he gets back from injury. And you have Ed Oliver and Milano dealing with week to week injuries. If some combination of those guys comes back there's a lot there to help. I also think the rookies are making various contributions and will get stronger once they get some film and work out the kinks. Even Cole seems to be playing better. Right now I think the defense for the Bills just needs to keep gaining experience and get all of its guys back and it should at the very least be a good unit.

Bosa's high snap counts are concerning but this team just doesn't have much at DE with Jackson not being able to contribute much just yet and Hoecht suspended. I think they do have to find a way to play Bosa less snaps even if it means AJE playing 10-15 moire snaps and Solomon playing 5-10 more snaps. AJE is a capable rotation player he should be pushing 50% of snaps at the moment. Solomon I get it he's a bit limited but he's got to soak in 25% or so of snaps. Hopefully this "mini-bye" helps Bosa and Groot and they get Landon Jackson on the field after a few more weeks to practice and work on his game. Kind of concerned about Tre's snap counts too he's older with a big injury history. Overall they got away with one here hopefully this game is garbage time for the last quarter and the Bills just blowout the Saints like they did the Jets.

I think they are one of the older teams in the NFL and they have a lot of vet guys that are injury prone to begin with. It's a shame because they are uber talented when healthy but they just can't stay healthy. Despite the 3-0 start its been a fairly soft schedule for them and I think they will likely need to start thinking of a mini-rebuild of their roster next season.

Shout out to St. Brown for winning me my fantasy week! What a heck of a game. Ravens with a tough loss. I wonder if the Ravens will look to try to make an offensive line addition by the trade deadline?

KC to me is one where I want them to have as big a deficit as possible. KC's roster is more flawed than the Ravens and I think they would have a hard time coming out of a hole. The Ravens are a talented team they just played a brutal schedule to start the season.

The NFL as a whole are running a lot more 2 TE sets. Teams are trying to beat the two high safety look by running two TE's to power up the run game but still offer a threat to keep the passing game threat. I think McD and many other coaching staffs are running more 3 LB sets to combat that look.

Problem with Olave is his concussion history. Since being in the NFL he's had 4 concussion and another documented concussion in college. You look his games played 15/16/8 and outside of last year when he only played 8 games that's not a bad amount of games played most guys missing a game or two is not a big deal. Esp since he produced so well his first two years. But 4 concussions in 3 years plus one from college makes you think he's not going to be durable. I would love to see a healthy Olave on the Bills him and Keon on the outside with Shakir in the slot with the TE's and Palmer working in as complementary weapons is dam near unstoppable. But the risk is simply too high as good as Olave is.

If they lose next week then the margin of error on the Jags away and Lions home is tough because they gotta then win both of those games and while I would favor them in both slightly one or both of those games could be "knuckleball" type games. I think if KC goes to 2-4 that's gonna be hard for them to get out of because then you gotta really make hay on your harder games.

I do wonder if Brady will be "picky" with a head coaching spot or not? There's only 32 of these jobs and only 4-9 usually come open a year. But not all opportunities are good ones either. Ben Johnson after 2023 was red hot but he came back with the Lions and now he found himself about as good a situation as he could in the Bears (young QB with 3-4 years left on their rookie deal, good cap space, solid draft pick position, and not bad talent overall). Brady was in the mix on a lot of coaching spots but never seemed to be in on the "better" opportunities. Long ways away from that but fans can't help but speculate.

If they lose next week and go 1-3 they would have to beat the Jags away (not an "easy" game but one they "should win") and win against the Lions at home another game I could see being a 50/50 knuckleball type game. Getting to 3-3 is going to be key for them. If they go 2-4 that's a big hole and their schedule does not let up. They have to play the Bills away, Colts at home has suddenly flipped from a reprieve to a tough game, Broncos twice in what could easily be a split, Chargers at home, and Commanders at home. Granted they do have some games where they can "get fat" on. Raiders twice (although the Raiders being better coached makes them less of an "easy" out), Titans, Texans (suddenly an easier projected game), and Cowboys. If they can win those 5 games and get a few of the other tough ones they could get at least 10 wins and at worse make a wildcard.

That's why I said better picture not a complete picture. The season evolves a lot. And yes KC with the veteran team and staff will evolve better than most. I think more so if the Chiefs can beat the Ravens next week they will not only put themselves in much less of a hole so to speak record wise but they will also showcase their talent likely isn't as depleted as they could.

The Bills defense ranked 17th last year. In order for it to be "significant" improvement I would say that it would probably need to be pushing top 10 defense to hit that criteria. I don't think going from 17th to 14th is really that significant. I think you would have to hit 12-10 for it to be really considered significant improvement. I think that's likely going to happen for this defense. I think they will finish just inside or outside the top 10.

People keep mixing this up. Hyde was loved as a signing. The Bills in Rex's last year in 2016 had major issues at safety and Hyde was one of (if not the biggest) safety contracts signed that off-season. Poyer was on the other hand a relative unknown given a fairly sizable deal for a player with his relative inexperience and people (myself included) were like who the hell is this guy and why is he getting a a 4 year deal for over 3 million a year with 7.6 million in guarantees? I was very happy to be wrong on that one, McD knew what he had in Po. Hyde however, was on many people's "wish lists" going into that off-season given the major need at safety.

I will give you the optimistic and pessimistic case. Optimistic Case The Bills currently are missing possibly 5 key players on defense in the early going. The PED Twins are still suspended, Mad Max the teams first round pick is currently hurt, and two key starters in Milano and Ed have week to week injuries. The defense has thus far been OK overall (gashed by the Ravens, shut down the Jets, and did OK against the Fins) will be adding more talent. You could also argue that the team is pacing its self defensively saving its best for the playoffs. The final component would be that you could also make an optimistic case is that the Bills if there are still defensive issues could add a piece at DT or safety if needed at the trade deadline. Not necessarily a major piece put if the Bills need a Rasul Douglas capable starter added I think that could happen. Pessimistic Case McD just hasn't had much success against quality offenses esp in the playoffs. The Bills shut down a bad Jets offense and then got handled by the Ravens and very easily could have given up 24-28 against a depleted Fins team. The early returns are far from good. Yes there are reinforcements coming but some of these aren't that inspiring. A rookie CB who while drafted fairly high up is still an unknown and two veteran D-line players who while decent aren't game changers. Milano and Ed coming back should help but Milano is older and having an injury early isn't a good sign. Ed is very good and capable of being a game wrecker but not consistently. So while there's help coming how much is that help going to really make an impact. The defense needs a big time impact player not more solid starters. My case is that I lean more towards the optimistic side of things. I do think Hoecht and Mad Max will help a lot as will Milano and Ed. Larry O could too, certainly won't hurt to see what he has. I also think if they do need some help at DT or safety they can find an addition at the trade deadline that will help even if they aren't a high end impact starter. I think the defense is and will be much better than last season but there is concern as to how it can hold up against elite offense esp in the playoffs.

This is a game where the Bills have to take control of this game early and have at a minimum a 2 score lead at half with the ball and then put this game out of reach in Q3. The Saints are arguably the worst team in the league. The defense should hold this Saints team to 14 or less points at a minimum and the offense should put up 31 or more. This is a chance to get fat on a bad opponent and if the Bills want the one seed they have to win this game. You can't let a bad team down you at home.

KC got extraordinarily lucky last year in one score games. But had KC had "normal" luck. They probably still win 12-13 games (remember they did bag the last game against the Broncos) even if they lose a few of those one score games. And that still probably nets them the 2 seed with the chance to rest in week 18 at a minimum.