billsfan89

Honestly would love a center in round 1! Solidifies the offensive line moving McGovern back to guard and replacing Mitch with a high quality prospect locked into a deal for 4-5 years. It then moves Edwards back to the 6th man position and gives the offensive line solid depth with Edwards as the backup to both guards and RT if needed, Collin’s is the backup RT and can flex into a guard spot if needed. Van Denmark is the swing tackle. That’s 3 solid bench options. I think the WR draft is deep enough where they can find a solid player at pick 60 and get depth in rounds 4-5. If they stack the offensive line the Bills can really be that power run team that over powers opponents.

I think there is a lot of room to use Knox as a full back in addition to a TE. Lots of ways to get him used in a more versatile manner

When looking into which players at 35 or older have put up 1k WR seasons I was pleasantly surprised to see Lofton in 1991 on there. He even followed that up with a decent season at age 36 with over 700 yards. Of the guys to have done it only 4 players have had multiple seasons age 35 or older (Jerry Rice with 3 and TO, Jimmy Smith and Joey Galloway with 2 each). It is also weird that as much as the NFL has become more and more of a passing league with each passing decade since the 1980's there haven't been too many WR's to have success in their mid 30's since the 2000's. In the 2000's Jerry Rice, TO, Joey Galloway, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Tim Brown and Cris Carter combined to have 12 of the 18 seasons of players 35 and older to have 1k seasons. 5 of the other 6 came in the 1990's (Jerry Rice, Lofton, Irving Fryar, Drew Hill and Henry Ellard all with 1 season each). In the 2010's it only happened once with Steve Smith back in 2014. I don't know if it is that players retire quicker now due to what we know about concussions and other injuries long term or players in the passing game are taking on more hits and target volume earlier in their careers which leads to more slowdowns? Just odd to see that trend start in the 1990's accelerate in the 2000's and then fall off a cliff in the 2010's?

I think he's a very talented player, It isn't like the 49ers are known for inflating QB stats. Last year they entered the year with Jimmy G and the QB position got so hurt they ended up with Purdy who was a 7th round rookie. This past season he excelled with Purdy a good not great QB who also had 3 other major targets to get the ball to (CMC out the backfield, Debo at WR and Kittle at TE) and Aiyuk still put up a career year. That all being said I think Aiyuk is not in play. Even if the Bills were willing to give up the draft picks I don't see how they can manage the cap hit. I think McBeane is retooling this team in 2024 they have 11 draft picks and likely are using a high pick on a WR. If they feel like that won't work they can make a in season trade or a trade/signing next year when Diggs is off the books and so is a lot of other dead cap.

Diggs agreed to cut the years off. Not sure why that was the case? Even if he puts up 100 catches 1000+ yards and a solid TD total he's going to enter free agency at age 32, I can't see a team giving him a 3-4 year deal at age 32 for huge money. WR's even elite ones usually fall off around age 33/34 very rarely will a WR put up 1000 yard seasons at age 35 or older. Only 18 times has an aged 35 or older player had a 1000 yard receiving season. And 3 of those seasons came from Jerry Rice (1998, 2001 and 2002) and it hasn't happened since 2014 when Steve Smith did it. I am just some random guy online and I know this information so I imagine NFL front offices are aware of this. So why Diggs wants to be a free agent is puzzling to me? Would he want to chase a ring or does he think he can get a team to give him a bigger 3 year deal than he was already under?

The dead cap hit in 2026 (heading into his age 33 season) would have been 13 million on something like a 28 million dollar cap number. A sizable penalty but one the Bills could manage. The dead cap hit in 2027 (heading into his age 34 season) would have been very low like 2ish million on a 27 million dollar cap number. Diggs isn't a dynamic athlete and hasn't had many major injuries and no serious injuries. So his game would still be effective even if he lost a bit of his athleticism in his 30's. I am fine with eating the cost this year (the money was sunk into Diggs anyway) and getting a premium draft pick next year and a ton of cap space going forward. Just gotta nail the draft which is true every year.

Here's what I would do with the WR room. Nothing major just add a couple of draft picks one high up and one in the mid-rounds. Shakir (I think he's going to have to be the WR1 and I think he can handle it esp if Kincaid steps into a larger more impactful role) 1st Round WR (Brian Thomas Jr, AD Mitchell or any other good prospect likely to fall to pick 28 or within a short trade up) Samuel (dude is more of a slot machine type getting a WR high up allows the Bills offense to be flexible with Samuel playing him in the slot or outside when needed). Bench: Hollins, Shorter and a 5th round pick (not sure who is going to fall but a decent depth option with hopefully some return ability for Special Teams should be there in the 5th). I think a high draft prospect would help ease the pressure off of Shakir and Samuel and adding a mid-round pick assists the depth. I think the Bills should also strongly consider a top guard or center prospect at pick 60. Edwards at LG is decent but not inspiring. If Haynes or Bebe is there at pick 60 taking another "plug and play" type guard and moving Edwards to the 6th man role not only improves the offensive line starting 5 short and long term but also helps out the depth at a unit where depth is critical. I think another draft of going offense in the first two rounds is needed. Then with 7 of the remaining 9 selections build up the defense and select a RB and WR for depth on offense. McD as a brilliant defensive mind is going to have to learn to build up a defense with mid and late round picks. He's shown the ability to do so at corner (Taron, Benford, Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace all went 4th to 7th round or un-drafted and have all been productive) and at LB with Milano, now he has to do so with the defensive line and continue to do so with the secondary.

The deal carried him through into age 34 however the outs at age 33 in 2026 was a 13 million dollar dead cap charge (not insignificant but manageable esp if you did a June 1st cut) and the out at age 34 was super easy as the dead cap was only 2-3 million from what I remember. Diggs was reportedly willing to hold out in 2022 if he didn't get a redone deal. So they didn't want to have issues with their 29 year old WR coming off back to back All Pro seasons hold out. So they gave him an extension that married the Bills to him through age 32 an age where most elite WR's still produce. I would have easily extended Diggs in 2022 and not given it a second though.

I think if the Bills draft a WR at pick 28 or 60 and another in the mid-rounds for depth they should be fine at WR without Diggs. Shakir and Samuel are good players and Kincaid/Knox at TE provides some additional punch. Add in a high draft pick to spread out some targets to and a mid-round pick to help in case of injury along with Hollins and Shorter I think you can piece together a solid pass catching unit esp with Cook and Ty good pass catching backs out the backfield. If I were Beane (and thankfully I am not) I would (assuming a trade down isn't there) take the best WR at pick 28 and then a good guard at pick 60. Solidify the WR/Oline group around Josh and take a RB in round 6 and an additional WR in round 5 and use the rest of the picks on defense. I don't want to ***** around with Josh in his prime. You traded Diggs for a good selection in 2025 and for future flexibility you plug your offensive holes high up and you let McD work the mid-rounds to solidify the defense.

The only spot where he can really "compete" for is LG where David Edwards is. And I am fine if that's the competition as Edwards is the weakest link on the line on paper. Spencer Brown the last 10-12 games he played last season was a very good RT, Torrence was the best "pure guard" in the 2023 draft and he put in a good season, Collins isn't a center or a LT but Dawkins and McGovern have those spots on lock coming off career years. It's either a pure depth signing or he is going to compete with Edwards. That's fine I am good with either. Although I would like to see the Bills spend pick 60 on a top guard in the draft and plug in another cheap rookie and have Edwards and Collins as depth. But I don't think that's going to happen.

I think Collins is more so a depth addition. I think they likely view Collins as the David Edwards role last year. A depth o-line player who can play both guard spots or RT and come in as a 6th offensive linemen in jumbo packages. I am all for helping out the depth. Outside of Van Denmark who in limited action showed to be a solid swing tackle the depth was Alex Anderson (an unproven prospect) and Clapp (a marginal backup). Not sure if Collins is making a huge difference but if his medicals are clear you can do worse?

The Texans were probably the only team willing to give up a decent amount to get him. The Bills took the best offer from a team outside their division.

I think they are much more likely to extend Brown while he may come cheaper. I think part of why they traded Diggs for 2025/26 cap relief is to resign the players from the 2021/22 draft.

Probably liked what they saw in medicals and wanted to go into the draft with more bodies along the offensive line? I am shocked to see the deal is worth up to so much for a player that hasn't been productive since 2021 and is coming off a PS stint. Luckily because he was only on Dallas's PS this won't count against comp picks.

The Diggs extension occurred when he was 29 and WR's usually play very well until about age 33/34. Diggs extension secured him through age 34 and the dead cap hit he had on the last year of his deal was 3 million and the dead cap while big at age 33 (13 million) was manageable if they needed an early out. The contract was sensible as you could easily project Diggs to have 3-4 more "elite" years left at his age and lack of injury history generally. The Bills are getting off the worst years of his deal (2025 and 2026) and getting a 2nd round pick out of it. The money for this year is a sunk cost as the Bills were going to be eating most of it having Diggs on the roster. Now the Bills have more money to resign the 2021/22 draft classes and maybe add a piece or two via free agency next year while going into the draft with 3 picks in the first two rounds.

This is a very interesting spot for Diggs to bet on himself. He's going to be 31 this upcoming season so by the time he gets his next "bite at the apple" in free agency he's going to be 32. Now historically HOF caliber WR's at age 32 can and still do put up prime numbers but the "cliff" for many great WR's is around age 33/34. It's very rare for a WR no matter how great to put up fantastic stats at age 34 and almost never heard of for a 35 year old WR to put up 1000 yard seasons. I am some random guy on a message board and I am aware of this fact. So I am sure NFL GM's are also aware of this and would shy away from handing a 32 year old WR who became a problem for a good winning organization a huge bag of money. So I am not sure what Diggs long term goals are here?

I don't see McBeane doing a massive trade up for a non-QB, and honestly I don't think trading up for a non-QB is worth it. The NFL draft is a complete crapshoot AND the NFL it's self is very volatile with injuries. You can pick the right players whose fantastic but then he gets seriously hurt and the chances he washes out is a lot higher. In order for the Bills to go from pick 28 to pick 6 it would probably require the Bills to give up picks 28, 60, 128 and a 1st and 3rd in next years draft. That's 5 selections in the first 4 rounds for one player that isn't a QB (as QB's are both franchise changers and can now play for a long period of time they are the only position worth trading up massively for). If you get Nabers at pick 6 and at a cost of a future 1st, 3rd, and picks 28, 60 and 128 that's 5 good draft picks wrapped up in one single player. If he is a bust or gets hurt you are sinking so much down the drain. Smaller trade ups I am fine with if Brian Thomas Jr falls to the pick 23/24 and they want to trade up I am fine with it. But don't mortgage a lot of two draft classes for a WR.

I actually love it more if I am a Houston fan. Their risk is fairly low. If Diggs balls out and has an elite season he's going to be a 32 year old free agent he's not going to command a huge 3+ year deal. WR's usually don't have many prime seasons left after age 33. The Texans can still get a 5th round comp pick for him which would amount to the Texans trading a 2nd round pick from Minny for a 6th round pick, two 5th round picks and an elite year of WR play. What I would have feared if I were the Texans was Diggs declining rapidly in 2024 or 2025 and the Texans having to take a big hit on the cap to dump him or have him be an overpaid role player for a season. Now that fear is largely eliminated.

If Josh wanted Diggs to stay he would be here. I think Diggs wore thin on Josh and he gave the green light for them to trade him.

It's a good long term move and a bad short term one. And in a league where decisions are judged frequently by how things are impacting the right here right now the Texans are going to get all the praise here and the Bills are getting the short end of the stick most of the time. But looking at this from a long term perspective I think the Bills made the right move. They not only acquire a premium draft pick (a pick likely to be in the top 10 of the second round) but also free up a lot of cap space. Pundits are saying "the Bills are eating 31 million in dead cap" yeah but that money would have already been tied up with Diggs this year anyway. They were already paying Diggs 27ish million this year so that's kind of already a sunk cost. So it amounts to the Bills taking on a small additional dead cap hit this season (about 3-4 million from what I am reading) to both acquire a premium draft selection (a likely high second swapped for a 5th and 6th) and put themselves in a much better situation with salary cap space going forward. The Texans due to having Stroud on a rookie deal for 3 more years plus a 5th year option are in a position to take on risk. If Diggs has 2 more elite years left they will be happy even if it means overpaying him in 2026 and taking a small dead cap charge in 2027 along with giving up a good pick. If Diggs has 1 more elite year left and then declines the Texans probably won't be happy having to overpay him in 2025 and take a big cap hit in 2026 but they can stomach that risk and still be a competitive team. Then the upside of Diggs having 3 or less likely 4 elite seasons left would certainly be worth it for the Texans. Even if Diggs is a complete disaster there and declines in 2024 the Texans can absorb the risk and still make other moves. Whereas the Bills are looking at really sandbagging their team for years if Diggs can't give them at least 2 more elite seasons. The Bills made the move of probably getting rid of a player a year too early which is what prudent front offices do. Toss in the off-field stuff and the Bills getting a premium pick and a ton of future cap space and it makes sense for the Bills to just draft a couple of WR's one early and one in the mid-rounds in a WR rich draft and go forward from there.

I wonder how many draft picks this team thinks it can roster? If I am looking at the roster I am seeing 7-9 spots for rookies. QB- Josh and Mitch are there probably no room on the 53 will need a PS QB in case of emergency but that’s likely a UDFA or a late stage free agent. RB- This team carrier 3 RB’s plus a FB. Cook and Ty plus Gilliam at FB are locks easily room for a draft pick to be the RB3 and provide for depth and special teams. WR- Team usually carries 5-6 right now they have 4 locks in Diggs, Samuel, Shakir and Hollins with a probable player in Shorter. Room for 1 more if they want it. TE- This team usually carries 3 and the DK bros are locks while Morris is a probable. Maybe a late round pick to push Morris but not a clear spot here. Oline- They usually carry 9 you have Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence and Brown as starters with Van Denmark and Alex Anderson as locks for reserve spots. Clapp will also compete. Easily room for 1-2 picks here. DE- Team usually carries 6 and there’s 3 locks in AJE, Groot and Von with Kingsley Jonathan and Toohill there as back end competition. Easily room for 1-2 picks here. DT- Team usually carries 5 - Right now they have Oliver, Daquon and Jonathan as locks with Williams as back end depth and a fringe player. Easily room for 1-2 rookies. LB- Team usually carries 5 - Bernard, Morrow, Milano, and Dorian Williams are locks while I think Spector is a probable. Maybe room for late round competition for Spector but not a need. CB- Team usually carries 6 - Douglas, Elam, Benford, and Taron are locks. Easily room for 1-2 picks here depending on where they slot Cam Lewis. S- Team usually carries 5 - Rapp, Edwards, Hamlin and Lewis are here easily room for a pick here as they will likely want to develop someone behind Edwards. Punter and Kicker could also use competition but I don’t see them viewing it as a need to spend picks on. That’s about 9-10 slots by my count. 1RB, 1WR, 1OL, 1DE, 1DT, 1CB, and 1S and I think you could see a double dip at CB, DT, OL or DE.

I don't think the same could be said for WR as the team had to bring in John Brown and Beasley in 2019 to turn around the WR room and then traded a first for Diggs to get Josh his WR1. Yes the team found Gabe Davis in round 4 and he ended up being a decent receiver and they found Shakir in round 5 and he's shown a lot of promise this past season. But since 2018 when Josh got here, the team's best WR seasons have come from Diggs (2020-2023), John Brown (2019) and Beasley (2019-2020) all of which have come from veteran WR's brought in via fairly big free agent contracts or traded for a 1st round pick. Generally speaking if the Bills are in a place in the draft where at pick 28 (assuming there isn't a trade down available) they should be able to find a WR, DE, OG, C or DT that has a first round grade as opposed to taking a CB at that selection. That's 5 different positions where a late 1st should yield you positive short term and long term impact more so than a CB would.

I think it would be an interesting project to bring him in and see if you can "redshirt" him for a two years on the PS and then see if he can develop. I feel like the NFL should let each team have two additional PS slots for developmental players. I think allowing teams to have an extra 17th and 18th PS slots for developmental players that kind of work outside the normal PS rules would work wonders for athletes from other sports attempting to come into the league. Spitballing but I think it could look like. Only an un-drafted player with no NFL experience can sign the deal. During those two years the player's slot cannot be taken by another player, if you sign a player to a developmental deal for the 2024 and 2025 seasons and you cut them you aren't able to use that slot again until 2026. After those two years the team has to release you or sign you to their training camp roster. After those two years you are now subject to the regular rules regarding Practice Squad and NFL rosters. A player can only sign one developmental deal during their careers. Other teams cannot claim the developmental player on waivers during the duration of their developmental contract. Developmental players cannot be elevated to the roster during the duration of their developmental contract (thus players have to assess if its worth it to not make a roster for two years and if they should take the deal.) I think this would greatly improve the quality of NFL players as it would allow athletes from other sports or athletes with more limited American football experience a pathway into the NFL. It would take advantage of each NFL team's infrastructure and allow them to be mini development factories for these uber raw prospects. Each team can take two players and give them two full off-seasons of training and development and the chance to practice with the team for two seasons and then get brought into a third off-season where they can develop some more and then come in as a training camp participant and get a chance to make the roster outright or get put on the actual PS.

Smart move by the Colts the safety market is really not there in recent years so bringing back a starter likely on the cheap for one season is one less hole for them to worry about. I think the Bills were never going to be in on Blackmon after they signed Edwards. I think McBeane likely feels that Edwards can be a solid starter Edwards seems to be the type of safety who makes the plays you are "supposed" to make which is good enough for me. The Bills likely want the backup safety spots to be for a development draft pick and I doubt Blackmon was going to sign on to be a backup or compete with Rapp.

I didn't know that about the CFL, very interesting how restrictive they are. I believe the XFL 2.0 had a deal in place where any player could leave their XFL contract for the NFL they just couldn't join the USFL or CFL. I think the UFL has a chance to be a decent feeder league and a solid "niche" product for hardcore football nerds.