billsfan89

I would love adding him to the Bills and all it costing draft wise is pick 128 and a 2nd next year or pick 60 and a 6th next year. But the issue is his contract and the Bills cap. I just don’t see it lining up I also think the Bills don’t want to add a big contract for a WR in 2025 and beyond after getting off the Diggs deal which they likely wanted to get off a big cap number in the coming season

Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR.

Hopefully he nets the Bills a comp pick as for the Giants you could do a lot worse as far as rotational backup DT. Phillips second stint here was marred by injury as he would get hurt just as he would start to play well.

We are in full agreement on the need to draft a WR early but I just don’t think McBeane who generally speaking is very prudent when building a roster is spending 8-10 million a year on a replacement for your WR4. It would be a foolish waste of resources to spend your largest free agent contract on upgrading a role player slot. Which leads me to believe they feel that Samuel is a slot or slot boundary hybrid and that Shakir is likely a slot boundary hybrid player at a minimum.

As a vet with some punt return ability and speed you could do worse for a WR 5/6 especially if you draft some players to compete with him in the back 2 rounds

I know we have gone back and forth on this but I do want to ask why you think the Bills need two boundary WR’s to come in as rookies? Are Shakir and Samuel splitting snaps at the slot in your mind? Genuinely asking because it just doesn’t seem likely that any offense is going to give more snaps to a second round rookie over Shakir a player who is a third year player coming off a very strong end to his second season and Samuel a proven 28 year old vet they just signed to a fairly big contract. The offense is also likely to employ Knox as a second TE at least for a good chunk of formations which leads to the Bills employing on two WR’s and I think Shakir or Samuel will be one of them in those situations. I definitely think this team needs a boundary WR who can soak in 70-80 targets effectively. But I don’t think this team needs a second boundary WR that is going to play heavy snaps over Shakir/Samuel/Knox and even Hollins may get situational snaps. I just don’t think the Bills would have signed Samuel and only think he can play slot unless they thought Shakir could play outside. Or if they thought Shakir was playing only in the slot then they probably feel comfortable with Samuel on the boundary at least a good chunk of the time. If you view Shakir as a slot and you need to replace Gabe and you are knowing Diggs is not certain why sign a player whose a slot exclusively to your largest free agency deal?

I would think a trade up to 3 would be at such a steep cost that I would pass. And Marvin Harrison JR as good of a WR prospect as he is (and I think he's probably the best prospect at WR since Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones in my opinion certainly as blue chip a WR prospect can get) is simply not worth the huge trade up that would likely be required. I think if the package was picks 28, 60, 128 and 144 this year plus a 1st and 2nd next year I wouldn't hate it, its a steep price but you are getting Josh as good of a cost controlled WR1 as possible and you still have a 2nd next year even if you give up one in a trade up. BUT I think the price AZ will want to go all the way down from 3 to 28 is likely to be picks 28, 60, 128 and 144 plus 1st round picks in 2025 and 2026 along with a 2nd rounder in 2025 and a 3rd in 2026. AZ is going to want to set up their drafts in 2025 and 2026 with multiple firsts and two additional premium picks. I just don't think any non-QB prospect is truly worth giving up a future first let alone two.

I actually think moving up massively/significantly for a non-QB or a lackluster QB prospect actually leads to pundits saying that the team that traded back more often than not won the trade. I think many feel that trade ups of more than a few spots high up tend not to be worth it most of the time. NFL roster building is almost more about not having weaknesses and good depth than it is about what your top elite talent looks like (outside of the QB position). Getting more picks or swapping out lower end picks for higher ones and get more or better "bites at the apple" to bring in talent all over the roster is better than going up higher on the board. You do need at least 2-3 elite non-QB players but the issue is that even trading up well into the top 10 does not guarantee that at that much higher a degree and as we have seen throughout NFL history elite top 5 at their position players are found all places in the draft and even some like Jason Peters un-drafted (although UDFA's being elite players is rare). I think given how deep this draft class is staying at 28 unless Brian Thomas maybe falls to around 24/25 (which would be a smaller more manageable trade up) the Bills best bet is to "let the draft come to them" and draft a WR at pick 28 like Legette or McConkey or trade down 5-10 spots and pick up a 3rd round pick and still take a WR like Franklin or Wilson and use that 3rd round pick to fill a need elsewhere on the roster and then take another WR at pick 128 for added depth while using pick 60 and whatever you got from the trade down to build the defensive line or if at pick 60 a top guard or center is there add a piece to the offensive line.

My concern with the Bills is that whomever they draft can't be a pure slot guy (which McC doesn't seem to be) and ideally the player would be more of a pure boundary player. I think of Shakir and Samuel as hybrid slot boundary players (although of the two I think Shakir is more capable of consistently playing on the boundary but he should flex into the slot now and again). Seems like from the description of what you are telling me about McC if asked to play the boundary consistently it wouldn't be a bad fit? If so I like what I see from him, I think he would be a good fit on this offense, they can then take a mid-round WR whose more of a pure boundary player to round out the depth.

I am just now getting familiar with McConkey’s game but is he more of a slot or a boundary WR? The Bills need a boundary WR as Shakir and Samuel are more hybrid slot boundary WR’s and at best even if the Bills view Shakir as a true boundary WR they won’t likely view Samuel as that so I he issue is the Bills can’t likely draft a slot high up.

Sorry to keep splitting hairs but your logic on Shakir not being able to take on big targets is not making sense to me. 90 targets is not a lot for Shakir as 90 targets is usually right around the second or third highest total for most teams. He took 45 targets and caught 39 receptions for 571 yards. He gave you no indication he couldn't take on a larger load given that he can go into the off-season as a starter and work with Josh and the offensive starters more. Gabe Davis is not a viable comparison here as Davis in the regular season was always a massively inefficient player from 2020-2021 in the regular season he averaged about a 56% catch rate and in 2021 he had a very high drop rate at 7.9% and even in 2020 while his drop rate was better it was not good at 4.9%. Gabe just exploded in the 2021 playoffs so the Bills banked on him building off of that one insane game in KC. What slotted Gabe in as an ideal WR3/4 was that he was a tremendous blocker and he has big play ability. But his drops and low catch rate were only going to get worse if you upped his targets which is exactly what happened. So you probably want to keep Davis as a 70ish target boundary WR and have an elite WR1 with a very good TE and slot WR so that you don't have to lean on him too much. Shakir produced an 11 game stretch in the regular season for a team mostly playing for their lives and changing their offensive coordinator and was insanely efficient. Shakir even had several games during that 11 game stretch where he wasn't on the field for 70% or more of the offensive snaps (he was on the field less than 70% of offensive snaps for 4 games and was never above 80%). Watching him he always seemed to catch the ball even as teams were keying in on him when Diggs was lesser utilized. I think if you draft a WR up high who can play on the boundary you can flex Samuel and Shakir into the slot and out of the boundary while utilizing Knox as a TE 2 to take a WR off the field. I just don't see where you find enough targets to justify a 2nd round WR after a 1st round WR selection. At best you maybe get someone 40-50 targets but I would rather take a player in the 4th to soak in those possible targets and develop while addressing a need elsewhere after you already took a WR up high.

90 targets is not that unrealistic for Shakir in my opinion. Shakir last season went into the season buried in the depth chart and not practicing with Josh and the starters as much. He was also just in his second year and didn't play much his rookie year. Add another full season of experience and an off-season/training camp of working as a starter with Josh and I think he is in a position where he can up his targets to 90. I also think it is not necessarily accurate to compare his last 11 games and extrapolate that to this upcoming season. First off Shakir was not the leading receiver on the team in that time period he was just the most efficient. Shakir only had 27 targets in the last 11 games. That was 4th most on the team in that time period. Diggs had 94 targets, Kincaid 72 and even Gabe Davis had 51 in that same game span compared to Shakir's 27. The Bills no longer have to force the ball into Diggs who despite 94 targets only caught those 94 targets at a poor 61.7% rate. The Bills can get Shakir and Kincaid the ball more and still have an efficient offense and enough depth of weapons if they can get a WR at pick 28 to contribute around 70-80 targets. If you draft a WR at pick 28 and at pick 60 how many targets are each of those players getting? Let's say you draft a WR at pick 28 then the WR depth chart puts that second rookie you drafted 60th overall as a WR4 at best, how many targets is a WR4 on an offense that is going to use 2 TE sets frequently and throw to their running backs a lot going to have for the 4th WR on the depth chart? And that's assuming a player like Shorter or Hollins doesn't soak in targets at a good clip.

Thomas has a small chance to fall in a range where they can do a more moderate smaller trade up. I can see scenarios where Thomas is there around pick 24 and the Bills can package a swap of pick 60 for a third plus a 5th to make that type of trade up. But I just don’t see them being able to trade up to pick 12 or higher at a reasonable cost.

No problem I get caught up in threads haha. I think the Bills won’t be in a position to trade up for a top 3 WR without having to give up a lot to the point where I don’t think it would be worth it. I think there also little chance Brian Thomas lasts past the 20-22 range either. So I think the Bills at pick 28 are going to have to “let the draft come to them” so to speak and just see whose there at pick 28 and either trade down a bit if that’s available or take the 5th WR on the board (likely Franklin, McConkey or Legette). I think at pick 60 if a really good WR is there no issue taking them but if a top Guard/DT/DE is there those needs shouldn’t be ignored to double up at WR if the value is lackluster. I think if you take a WR in the 26-35 range I think you can wait to pick 128 to add some depth.

We can quibble about the targets but the targets available aren’t going to be more than a 5% increase and I think a lot of the Diggs 160 target volume is not going to be absorbed just by two rookies. Shakir is going to likely have 45 more targets and Kincaid 20 more targets. That’s already chipping away 65 targets from Diggs. I think the Bills will need impact from a rookie and that’s why it is imperative they draft one with their first pick. But I do doubt that the Bills fortunes are resting on a depth WR who’s at best only going to be a WR4 and get 40-50 targets if there are no major injuries and it’s probably closer to 30 targets more likely if health is not a factor. If the Bills can find a rookie to who can have a good impact and absorb 70-80 targets efficiently then I think the Bills will be in a good spot. I think they don’t have to draft a WR at pick 60 if there isn’t a good one there or the value is much greater at another position of need. They can find a WR at pick 128 or 133 to add depth and take on 30-40 targets.

Josh threw 579 times in 2023 with 545 being targets (I assume those other 30 passes were throw away or batted at the line). So round up to 550 targets likely needed I think the targets are going to look like this for the guys currently on the roster. These seem like reasonable estimates to me. Kincaid 110 Shakir 100 Samuel 70 Cook 50 Knox 50 Hollins 35 Ty Johnson 25 That’s about 440 targets so you are only “short” about 110 targets. You probably need a rookie to come in and take about 75 targets which would put the Bills at about 515 targets and the rest of the 35 targets are likely spread around to role players. So I don’t think you need two WR’s soaking in a lot of targets.

I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets. They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets. Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets. I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.

This team did find Gabe Davis in round 4 and Shakir in round 5. I know Gabe wasn’t the WR2 that the team needed him to be in 2022. But Gabe was still a productive WR. I think that the McBeane track record on mid round selections is better than average. In rounds 4-5 from 2017 on the team has drafted 11 players the team has found Milano, Taron Johnson, Shakir, and Gabe Davis and a good role player in Neal with the jury still out on Shorter. That’s a 40% hit rate on finding starters and a 50% hit rate on finding productive players (taking out Shorter from the calculation). And while Teller wasn’t a hit for the Bills he was a good player the Bills traded too soon. So I think I actually value selections in the mid rounds as it seems like McBeane seems to find good players there.

I would hate giving up pick 200 for him. He just turned 24 and he’s been in a bad passing offense with lackluster QB’s and he’s only two years into his career. He’s been a bit banged up his first two seasons but not necessarily major injuries (turf toe and a LCL sprain from what I have read) so he’s not damaged goods either. Big guy with great measurables and productive in college. Maybe a change of scenery will help him. Could do worse for a WR 5/6.

The Bills in my opinion will be able to roster about 8-9 selections. They clearly need a WR or two and likely are going to draft two (one at either pick 28 or 60 and one in the mid rounds). I think on offense they also need a third string RB (probably can get that in round 6) with some ST upside. They also will probably have room for one offensive line depth/development player. They likely are also going to draft 2-3 DL players as they need at a minimum one DT and one DE to fill out that rotation. They also will need a safety and a corner for secondary depth and possibly two corners. I can’t see a pick other than a round 7 flyer at TE, QB, K/P, or LB. The Bills likely don’t see K/P as a need for some reason and the starters and depth at TE/QB/LB are solid.

Honestly would love a center in round 1! Solidifies the offensive line moving McGovern back to guard and replacing Mitch with a high quality prospect locked into a deal for 4-5 years. It then moves Edwards back to the 6th man position and gives the offensive line solid depth with Edwards as the backup to both guards and RT if needed, Collin’s is the backup RT and can flex into a guard spot if needed. Van Denmark is the swing tackle. That’s 3 solid bench options. I think the WR draft is deep enough where they can find a solid player at pick 60 and get depth in rounds 4-5. If they stack the offensive line the Bills can really be that power run team that over powers opponents.

I think there is a lot of room to use Knox as a full back in addition to a TE. Lots of ways to get him used in a more versatile manner

When looking into which players at 35 or older have put up 1k WR seasons I was pleasantly surprised to see Lofton in 1991 on there. He even followed that up with a decent season at age 36 with over 700 yards. Of the guys to have done it only 4 players have had multiple seasons age 35 or older (Jerry Rice with 3 and TO, Jimmy Smith and Joey Galloway with 2 each). It is also weird that as much as the NFL has become more and more of a passing league with each passing decade since the 1980's there haven't been too many WR's to have success in their mid 30's since the 2000's. In the 2000's Jerry Rice, TO, Joey Galloway, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Tim Brown and Cris Carter combined to have 12 of the 18 seasons of players 35 and older to have 1k seasons. 5 of the other 6 came in the 1990's (Jerry Rice, Lofton, Irving Fryar, Drew Hill and Henry Ellard all with 1 season each). In the 2010's it only happened once with Steve Smith back in 2014. I don't know if it is that players retire quicker now due to what we know about concussions and other injuries long term or players in the passing game are taking on more hits and target volume earlier in their careers which leads to more slowdowns? Just odd to see that trend start in the 1990's accelerate in the 2000's and then fall off a cliff in the 2010's?

I think he's a very talented player, It isn't like the 49ers are known for inflating QB stats. Last year they entered the year with Jimmy G and the QB position got so hurt they ended up with Purdy who was a 7th round rookie. This past season he excelled with Purdy a good not great QB who also had 3 other major targets to get the ball to (CMC out the backfield, Debo at WR and Kittle at TE) and Aiyuk still put up a career year. That all being said I think Aiyuk is not in play. Even if the Bills were willing to give up the draft picks I don't see how they can manage the cap hit. I think McBeane is retooling this team in 2024 they have 11 draft picks and likely are using a high pick on a WR. If they feel like that won't work they can make a in season trade or a trade/signing next year when Diggs is off the books and so is a lot of other dead cap.

Diggs agreed to cut the years off. Not sure why that was the case? Even if he puts up 100 catches 1000+ yards and a solid TD total he's going to enter free agency at age 32, I can't see a team giving him a 3-4 year deal at age 32 for huge money. WR's even elite ones usually fall off around age 33/34 very rarely will a WR put up 1000 yard seasons at age 35 or older. Only 18 times has an aged 35 or older player had a 1000 yard receiving season. And 3 of those seasons came from Jerry Rice (1998, 2001 and 2002) and it hasn't happened since 2014 when Steve Smith did it. I am just some random guy online and I know this information so I imagine NFL front offices are aware of this. So why Diggs wants to be a free agent is puzzling to me? Would he want to chase a ring or does he think he can get a team to give him a bigger 3 year deal than he was already under?