billsfan89

The schedule release is the most overhyped thing the NFL does and it annoys me for some reason. I get trying to plug something into the May calendar to keep the NFL in the news cycle but just announce the release during the draft and release it all in one day. It's just trying to get too much juice out of something that doesn't have a lot of meat on the bone.

Hard to say, I know when the Bills as a result of some international scheduling were given the choice to pick their bye week (I don't remember the exact detail I think this was a benefit given because they played the Jags in the Jags second week in London in 2023) I think McBeane took a bye week later in the season. I think given that there's only one bye for the playoffs teams probably prefer a bye later in the season. But also you could get his with a rash of nagging injuries early and could use a bye in week 6-8 so it is always a bit relative. I think the key thing is to have your playoff seeding locked up by week 18 so that you can have that last week of the regular season as a defacto bye week on top of your mid-season or later season bye. I think it made a big difference for the Bills in 2024 vs. 2023. In 2023 they had to chase down Miami and every week was a playoff game and I think the Bills were a bit more exhausted than KC in the Divisional round as even though KC was the 3 seed they locked everything up and rested their starters week 18 so while they didn't have the one seed bye they had pesudo bye. I think it made a big difference for the Bills in 2024 to not play starters in week 18. So there's a lot of ways to look at the schedule.

SOS is one of the least valuable metrics in the NFL prior to the season starting. First off it is highly reflective of the division you play in. About a touch over a third of your games are against your division. So if you are like the Bills and you don't have good divisional opponents it's gonna deflate your SOS. Of course even if let's say you play in an OK division SOS prior to the start of the season is kind of flawed because the NFL is the most variable sport there is. The Commanders went from drafting 2nd overall to making the NFCCG for example. Every year there's 3-4 teams (like the 49ers) who everyone suspects will be very good and they flounder and then there's 3-4 teams everyone thinks will stink (like the Commanders, Broncos, Vikings last year) who overachieve. It's just not really easy to project what your actual SOS is prior to the season. So I always toss it out. I've heard Bills fans going into the season talk about how "hard" the schedule is some years and then B word at the end of the season how the Bills didn't beat anyone and will lose in the wildcard round. So just take it all with a grain of salt.

The Bills are a top 4-5 drafting team in the league. I would say KC/Philly/Baltimore are firmly better I can't think of too many other teams I would say are better than the Bills the past 7-8 years.

I don't think the plan is necessarily to go into the season needing a in-season WR trade. I think they like Palmer and Keon as the outside WR's with a projected bounce back from Kincaid in year 3. I think the in-season WR trade is the "Plan B" Yes would I have liked the Bills to trade for DK and give him the contract but then you also have the argument that the defense has been the larger issue for playoff failures the past 5 years so if you trade a 2nd and a 5th for DK that's less defensive prospects and less cap space that you can allocate to fix the defense up. So there's no real "right" answer as to what is the best approach because either way there's some way you can critique moves.

I am not disagreeing totally but I also think having a top 9 passing attack in terms of raw yards is pretty good when considering the context of the Bills having a lot of games where they were up big and very successfully grinding out the clock with a good running game means that passing yards are likely to be deflated a bit. I do think however had the team not made the addition of Cooper it would have struggled more at times offensively. I know Cooper's output in terms of raw numbers wasn't great but his presence on the outside completely changed how defenses approached the offense. KC for example played the Bills defensively where they "dared" the Bills to beat them 1v1 on the outside and Cooper had those two long catches on the sidelines and KC stopped doing that and it opened up more underneath. And unless Palmer is the guy they think as far as winning 1 v 1 matchups on the outside and/or Keon takes that next step to being more consistent I do think there's gonna be a move made at WR to have that consistent (or at least more than respectable) 1 v 1 guy on the outside. I think the Bills front office is very prudent and let's be honest the pickings at WR in terms of a true outside boundary difference maker both in the draft and in free agency/trades were weaker. DK was the big one and I think the Bills front office decided that the cap costs and the draft cost was just too steep the rest were either guys who were more slot WR's or just weren't really available or cost too much (like D.Adams). The draft also didn't have a lot of true outside WR's and the value/need on defense made more sense. Overall I think them going with the approach of stress testing the WR's early and then seeing if they need to do a in season WR move makes the most sense as it is easier to fit the cap numbers once the big bonuses have been paid as have 5-6 weeks of salary by the trading team.

Not disagreeing with you but the Bills passing yards stats are likely deflated by the fact that the Bills were very good at grinding out the clock on the ground and the Bills having a dominant at times ground attack is something that keeps Josh healthy. I don't disagree that I would have liked for the Bills to do something better than Palmer/Moore to replace Cooper/Hollins at WR. But I'm also not gonna say that the Bills "liking what they have" at WR is a bad sign. If they feel Kincaid/Coleman are ready to develop more and that Palmer really is a very good fit and that a health Samuel will add some pop then perhaps that a better sign than we as fans from the outside think? There's also the idea that an in-season acquisition like Cooper is on the table and easier to fit cap wise.

As far as Morris it is a nice depth signing for the Jags, he is what he is at this stage of his career (a high quality TE3) and each roster spot holds value. I think the Bills just moved on from Morris because he had limited upside. 4 years in he never developed beyond what he was. I would have liked for the Bills to have brought him back but give the volume of draft picks they had it was easy to pencil one in for a TE in round 5-6.

Douglas in 2024 reminded me of Po in 2023 in that while I thought Douglas had lost half a step he was still a decent player. I know Po was/is older than Douglas but it just looks like Douglas who was never really a burner (ran a 4.59 at the draft) lost even more speed and just was prone to getting burnt at times even if he was very fundamentally sound almost always being where he needed to be just a step behind at times. I think getting out on Douglas was the right move. Tre is a year younger (granted more injury history) and looked better with the Ravens to end the season, getting Tre another off-season 6-7 months to be further removed from his 2023 injury seems like a better gamble. Toss in two drafted corners one in round 1 and a depth kick the tires retread in Dane and the team just doesn't need Douglas.

If Po wants to be "on retainer" for a late season PS stint and maybe make the roster if there's a lot of catastrophic injuries fine he can get the Hyde route of one last run in the most limited way possible. I love what Po did for this team but he was losing half a step in 2023 and then looked completely washed with Miami. He's been a full time starting safety in the NFL since 2017 and he's been in the league for over a decade with a decent injury history at 34 years old. For his own sake he should even if he still wants to play take the route most guys in his situation take and be a veteran in season free agent. If the Bills need him for the PS mid-season take him. He can be a coach who is a emergency backup. It gives him a long off-season of rest he needs at this stage of his career and still helps him provide value to the team granted in a very limited way.

I don't think Tomlin is a bad coach nor has the game passed him by. I think the Steelers have just not had a viable QB since Big Ben. The Steelers 6 Super Bowls all came under two QB's Terry in the 70's and Big Ben. They aren't immune to needing a QB. They took one swing in round 1 with Pickett and that was a flop and then they tried to revive Fields with Russ as the backup vet and that wasn't that much better. Now they seem to be completely directionless at QB somehow even worse off than they were. I think the Steelers organization has been passed by a bit as they have this instance on not "tanking" which while admirable they have to realize this era of the NFL is insanely QB dependent. And while you don't have to tank to get a QB you also should have a coherent plan at QB. If you don't like this years QB draft than maybe off load some vets for picks in next years draft and if it means you have a losing season then that's fine you win 6-7 games and you developed a lot of younger guys on your roster and you have 2-3 extra picks in the top 100 to work with to make a trade up for a QB which is less costly to do it you are drafting in the top 10 instead of in the late teens. But Tomlin is still able to get his team to 9 wins despite some issues at QB so they never are in a position to land a top QB and their prudence makes them reluctant to take a swing at getting into the top picks for a QB by trading away a lot of future selections. I think Tomlin is the most modern aspect of their organization but he's also contributing to their QB issues.

Injuries are the worst part of football (any sport really) Ravens fans seem to be very upset about this as they think very highly of him. Sad to see this happen in the off-season. I always wonder are Achilles tears like this are just "freak" occurrences or is this something that was kind of just bound to happen due to wear and tear?

Hendrickson is not playing for the Bengals. He is willing to sit out the season rather than not get a new deal. They probably assured him that after he signed a one year extension in 2023 that they would "take care" of him longer term after the 2024 season. Hendrickson had a great 2024 and now he wants to get paid on the last year of his contract. He views them as being "dishonorable" and with only one year left on his contract he knows the Bengals leverage is less. The Bengals don't want to commit big money to an older pass rusher. We can at least be assured that Hendrickson is not playing for the Bengals. Honestly I am also not sure what team has the cap space and "win now" willingness to trade a good (I would say the Bengals aren't taking less than a 2nd rounder) draft pick for him either. It's a sticky situation and I could honestly see it ending with Hendrickson sitting out the year.

Championship runs get a defensive bailout on a game or two all the time. KC from 2022-2024 didn't exactly have a high flying offense once Hill got traded and they had some low scoring playoff games where the defense bailed the lackluster offense out. Now of course they had good offensive playoff performances too but I also think that it's fair to say the Bills should aim to have a defense that can at least have some capability to put in a super good game at some point beyond the wildcard round. I'm also all for gearing the team heavily towards Josh in general but teams not making moves isn't always a bad thing. It was prior to the 2011 season and a lot of Giants fans were complaining about how the team despite having some cap space hardly did anything in free agency. It was Michael Strahan who came on the pre-season shows and stated that a team not getting a lot of guys in free agency is not always a bad sign. Often times that means the team likes what they have and thinks they can continue to develop what is already on the roster. The Giants ended up winning the Super Bowl that year. So maybe the Bills simply liked what they have at WR or the draft just didn't fall right for them to land a WR. Either way the Bills should be on the lookout for a WR via the trade market.

All fair points, I think if the target is to keep 11 D-line as they usually do then having 12 does not make for that crowded a field when 2 guys are suspended for a third of the season.

The stadium looks nice, wish they did it fully covered but will definitely check it out. Gonna go to a game this season and next season to see the last of the Ralph and the first of the new stadium.

Fully agree that the Bills seem to be "good" on the D-line. If there's a rash of injuries there I can see a trade deadline deal similar to when they traded for Douglas in 2023 but I think given the depth the Bills brought in that's not likely to happen. The Bills bolstered the short term mercenary part of the defensive line by signing Bosa and Larry O. They then got their moveable "chess piece" in Hoecht whose on a 3 year deal, and they got the younger developmental players who should be rotational players via picks in rounds 2-4. In addition the Bills have backend development pieces in Carter and Solomon from the previous draft and Groot who they locked in longer term. Plus AJE and D.Jones are still there on the last year of their contracts. 2025 just seems like a very crowded field post draft and free agency even with the "PED Twins" (hilarious nickname) suspended. I suspect the Bills will if they like their rookies/2nd year players ability to contribute might move on from AJE or D.Jones before the season starts and wait for the PED Twins to come back. Or if they feel like a lot of the rookies still need time to cook and Solomon and Carter aren't ready for bigger roles they will just "figure it out" after the first 6 weeks likely assuming there's gonna be an injury or two after a third of the season is up.

It's also a lot easier to acquire a vet WR at the trade deadline cap wise if you need a boost at WR. The team has not been shy about making a mid-season acquisition. Last year with Cooper and the year before with Douglas. The offense is a pretty complete unit minus maybe needing a WR. Josh is obviously Josh, the offensive line is a top 3-4 unit in the NFL (only firmly behind the Eagles and Lions maybe one other team you could argue), the TE pairing I would say is top 10, and the RB core is top 7-10 in the league as well, and while the WR might not be an elite unit it's certainly a "decent" unit with a top end slot WR and some talent otherwise. So if the WR core does need some punch you can look at a trade happening. The Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), Browns (Jerry Jeudy), Titans (Calvin Ridley), and Colts (Pittman) are all just off the top of my head teams that 6-7 weeks into the season could be 1-5 or 2-5 and out of it and looking to trade a good WR. So it's not like the Bills are unlikely to have at least some options if a move is needed like it was in 2024.

The Bills defense is even in its lesser years still a better than average NFL defense. It has just come up short against KC (and a few other times) in the playoffs. Typically better offenses in the playoffs have given the Bills issues. What I hope the heavy defensive emphasis in free agency and the draft (mainly targeted towards the D-line and CB spots although safety had some moderate additions) is that it helps raise the defenses "ceiling" so to speak. The Bills haven't had that elite defense that's gonna take out top 10 (let alone top 5) offenses consistently. I think this year is gonna test the theory that maybe McD's defensive gameplan just doesn't work against elite teams in the playoffs. I think he has the talent on the defense to make it work.

Going to an expansion franchise is insanely hard to do as a rookie QB and David Carr also had an issue where the expansion draft rules weren't that good for the Texans which meant that getting the franchise off to a hot start like the Jags and Panthers was not gonna happen (I think the other owners basically didn't want to be too favorable for expansion teams so they defacto punished the Texans and returning Browns). I would love to have seen Derrick Carr with the Texans team that Matt Schuab had. Schuab had a lot better O-line and a good complement of weapons and a defense that improved somewhat. Carr was just given Andre Johnson and not much else.

There might be a couple others as NIL money makes it so that you have something to fall back on should you run into a serious injury. But it is only going to be a narrow range of QB prospects who are gonna have the luxury to be picky with landing spots. The guys who know if they wait a year at worst they will be a top 5 pick prospects that I think would have fit this bill in the last 10ish years Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, and maybe Caleb Williams? That's about it. And of those players what maybe one of them wouldn't have liked their landing spot? It will be a situation that pops up once or twice a decade at worst.

NIL is going to make college players a little more confident in staying another year if the teams that hold the number one pick aren't appealing situations. That being said I do think there's not going to be that many prospects (and let's be honest really just QB's) that go back for an extra year to avoid a particular team drafting them. Being the number one pick at QB pays well and it's something that signals a longer term commitment a NFL team has to you that makes you at minimum a three year commitment. Whereas you go to college and you get hurt that's it. The Manning family was able to make those decisions in the 90's and 00's to stay an extra year because having a wealthy or at least well off dad who knows the league helps.

I was a "Wrong Josh" guy but it took me about 24 hours to be turned around on Josh Allen as a prospect. I bought into a lot of the pre-draft hype about accuracy issues that were not going to get fixed at the pro level because "no one fixes accuracy issues". I think a lot of posters on this board as well as Mel Kiper of all people really got me on board with selecting the prospect with the much higher ceiling who if he fixed his footwork and decision making could be an MVP (and that's exactly what happened). I think Kiper basically said that anyone saying Josh Allen has accuracy issues that couldn't be fixed was engaging in "lazy scouting" which as it turns out Kiper was completely right about. Kiper pointed out that Allen's completion percentages were not as bad as they seemed on the surface largely because he didn't have the best WR core which led to some dropped passes and poor breaks on catchable balls. Secondly Kiper mentioned the college system Josh played in was a system that emphasized throwing the ball down the field a lot and less short throws that inflate completion percentages. The other side of the coin on Josh as a prospect was that the reason he had some really off looking throws and bad throws was a result of some bad footwork habits. Josh had such a powerful raw arm that it compensated somewhat for lackluster footwork. But in the NFL Josh was going to have to fix his footwork in order to make it as a high level QB. The pro-Josh Allen camp stated that Josh was a very hard working and dedicated so that the idea that with NFL coaching and a full time level of commitment he couldn't fix those issues was flawed. Also, Josh's weaker decision making came from a combination of his insane arm leads him to thinking he can make every throw and just lack of consistent experience. So I am very glad the Bills got Josh Allen and have good scouting and coaching.

I think a team would 100% claim him. There's not many teams with 4 safeties better than him and the fact that he's a willing special teams player means that teams won't be burning a roster spot on a pure backup. He's well worth a roster spot in my opinion. Ideally the team has Bishop displace him but having a steady backup who at worst flexes into a ST role is still good injuries happen and this team could do a lot worse than having Hamlin plug in for a few games.

That's my read on Hamlin too, I think Cover 1 and some more detailed film junkies on Youtube have said similar things. That Hamlin is very fundamentally sound in knowing where to be in the system while also being a willing tackler he just lacks the speed to close like an elite safety.