Bills cuts discussion

[Max Fischer]

3 minutes ago, Trust The Process said:

AJ Epenesa has only 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons which averages out to be only 4.3 sacks per season which means he's just another guy and not worth a premium 2nd round pick (54th overall). Just because Epenesa got an extension doesn't make Epenesa a good draft pick, bad stats don't lie.

 

As far as Singletary goes, 3rd round picks should be starters not backups. Singletary is a backup.

 

AJ has not lived up to 2nd Round status, but he's a productive and valuable part of the rotation. Not close to a "wasted" pick.

 

Singletary was and still is a solid starter. Plus, he and Moss played behind a feeble run blocking line.  Moss just didn't hit his full potential, but he certainly had third-round talent.  Again, neither of these picks was wasted. 

 

Rasuel Douglas was certainly a productive member of the defense and worth the third-round cost, at least for a few seasons. Not wasted. 

 

Very few people thought Cooper was a wasted third-round opportunity. Although it wasn't as much as we hoped, he helped the offense become one of the best. 

 

Also - by your standards, name another team that doesn't have multiple "wasted" picks

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Trust The Process said:

AJ Epenesa has only 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons which averages out to be only 4.3 sacks per season which means he's just another guy and not worth a premium 2nd round pick (54th overall). Just because Epenesa got an extension doesn't make Epenesa a good draft pick, bad stats don't lie.

 

As far as Singletary goes, 3rd round picks should be starters not backups. Singletary is a backup.

 

Yea I defend AJ a bit as a player because he has been a kind of consistent rotational pass rusher the last 3 years and yet people still often talk about him like a bust which isn't fair. But the Bills drafted a guy and then asked him to completely change his body which wasted two years of his rookie deal and frankly even if he had been the player he has been the past three years for his full 5 year career it is still probably the absolute baseline for an acceptable 2nd round pick.

[fergie's ire]

3 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Ill start....Dane Jackson

 

 

 

Mike Catalana on Buffalo plus was suggesting a few days ago that Dane could be cut before cut down, but start game 1.

[LEBills]

4 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

I’m confused…..we resigned Epenesa. Douglas gave us a good season and Singletary was our primary RB for 4 seasons…..how were those wasted picks?

They aren’t wasted, they just aren’t difference makers. AJ has played in like 12 playoff games and hasn’t gotten a sack lol

Edited Tuesday at 04:14 PM by LEBills

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

The hell ... We cut both Mike White and white Steve ? 

 

1 hour ago, MiltonWaddams said:

I’m all white with those cuts…

There is no White privilege on this team.

[appoo]

17 minutes ago, TPS said:

Can you define what you mean by wasted?  At the very least, you need to state who Beane should've picked instead and why?  I don't think anyone will argue about Basham, but the rest of your list is questionable.

It's lottery. if you expect more 1 - 7 rounders to wash out, with the percentage going up each round, you're probably not far off. 

 

For example this is the 1st round in 2021

 

1. Lawrence - 2nd contract

2. Wilson - bust

3. Lance - bust

4. Pitts - didn't get an extension yet

5. Chase - HOF

6. Waddle - 2nd contract

7. Sewell - HOF

8. Horn - 2nd contract

9. Surtain - HOF

10. DeVonta Smith - 2nd contract

11. Fields - eh

12. Micah - HOF

13. Slater - 2nd contract

14. Vera-Tucker - 2nd contract

15. Mac Jones - bust

16. Zavien Collins - didn't get a legit 1st round extension, just a 2 year 14M

17. Alex LEatherwood - bust

18. Jaelen Phillips - 2nd contract

19. Jamin Davis - out of football right now

20. Kadarius Toney - bust

21. Kwity Paye - good player, still waitng his contract extension

22. Caleb Farley - bust

23. Christian Darrisaw - 2nd contract

24.  Nahee Harris - semi bust

25.  Travis Etienne - about to lose his job as a starter

26. Greg Newsom - flirting with turning into a journeyman, didn't earn 2nd round contract yet

27.  Bateman - 2nd conract

28. Payton Turney - Bust

29. Eric Stokes - Bust

30. Groot -  2nd contract

31. Odafe Oweh - Decent, didn't earn 2nd contract yet

32. Joe Tryon - Bust

So 12% got to elite

31% got to a 2nd contract

31% busted. 

25% are still in TBD

 

Top 10 :  30% HOF trajectory, 40% solid, 20% bust, 10% TBD

11 - 20 : 10% HOF, 30% solid, 40% bust, 20% TBD
21 - 32 : 0% HOF, 25% solid, 33% bust, 42% TBD

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Eddy U AND Jimmy C is a mild surprise. Usually they roll with 5 LBers. Maybe they will look to add someone. 

[Ralonzo]

31 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

 

We had a "combine" to determine our fantasy football draft order last week. My 5'9, 163 lb, 34 year old self ran a 4.88 40 with 1 rep on the bench press. I think I'm qualified to make the team. 

NFL comp: Brandon Codrington

[balln]

1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

NFL comp: Brandon Codrington

Yea like. Really

close 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Thankfully we signed Cook long term. Otherwise we likely would have drafted another running back in the top 4 round with a sub 5 RAS this upcoming year

 

Yea I know it's a bad way to look at it in the big picture but that genuinely was one of the things I most liked about extending Cook. 

[NickelCity]

4 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Eddy U AND Jimmy C is a mild surprise. Usually they roll with 5 LBers. Maybe they will look to add someone. 

 

Milano Bernard Williams Andreessen Thompson is 5

[balln]

4 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Eddy U AND Jimmy C is a mild surprise. Usually they roll with 5 LBers. Maybe they will look to add someone. 

Another 5th round cut / out of the league - like  wr Justin shorter. 
 

Beane wasting picks 

[Starr Almighty]

 

[RichRiderBills]

1 hour ago, Brand J said:

He’s small and slow. People will always want upgrades on those attributes - especially speed.

 

Dave Megget ran a 4.64 40 at the 89 combine.

Edited Tuesday at 04:22 PM by RichRiderBills

[Brand J]

41 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Assuming Carter is cut, I’m going to reach out to Joe Marino and see if I can get him to conduct some kind of study on how many premium draft picks this team has wasted and cross reference that with other teams. I tend to think the bills are in the top 10 in terms of wasted premium draft picks (1-3). Or maybe we’re just babies. But I intend to find out if there’s any kind of truth to that. 
 

If you do reach out to Joe, tell him it’s pronounced O-gun-jobi, not Ah-gun-jobi. Guy continues to mispronounce his name.

[TPS]

1 minute ago, appoo said:

It's lottery. if you expect more 1 - 7 rounders to wash out, with the percentage going up each round, you're probably not far off. 

 

For example this is the 1st round in 2021

 

1. Lawrence - 2nd contract

2. Wilson - bust

3. Lance - bust

4. Pitts - didn't get an extension yet

5. Chase - HOF

6. Waddle - 2nd contract

7. Sewell - HOF

8. Horn - 2nd contract

9. Surtain - HOF

10. DeVonta Smith - 2nd contract

11. Fields - eh

12. Micah - HOF

13. Slater - 2nd contract

14. Vera-Tucker - 2nd contract

15. Mac Jones - bust

16. Zavien Collins - didn't get a legit 1st round extension, just a 2 year 14M

17. Alex LEatherwood - bust

18. Jaelen Phillips - 2nd contract

19. Jamin Davis - out of football right now

20. Kadarius Toney - bust

21. Kwity Paye - good player, still waitng his contract extension

22. Caleb Farley - bust

23. Christian Darrisaw - 2nd contract

24.  Nahee Harris - semi bust

25.  Travis Etienne - about to lose his job as a starter

26. Greg Newsom - flirting with turning into a journeyman, didn't earn 2nd round contract yet

27.  Bateman - 2nd conract

28. Payton Turney - Bust

29. Eric Stokes - Bust

30. Groot -  2nd contract

31. Odafe Oweh - Decent, didn't earn 2nd contract yet

32. Joe Tryon - Bust

So 12% got to elite

31% got to a 2nd contract

31% busted. 

25% are still in TBD

 

Top 10 :  30% HOF trajectory, 40% solid, 20% bust, 10% TBD

11 - 20 : 10% HOF, 30% solid, 40% bust, 20% TBD
21 - 32 : 0% HOF, 25% solid, 33% bust, 42% TBD

Thanks, I understand, but I'm not so sure the poster I responded to does?  

[Roundybout]

5 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:

 

Should mean Shavers made the roster 

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I defend AJ a bit as a player because he has been a kind of consistent rotational pass rusher the last 3 years and yet people still often talk about him like a bust which isn't fair. But the Bills drafted a guy and then asked him to completely change his body which wasted two years of his rookie deal and frankly even if he had been the player he has been the past three years for his full 5 year career it is still probably the absolute baseline for an acceptable 2nd round pick.

They didn’t ask AJ to lose 40 pounds, that was his doing. When he showed up to camp the team was surprised. Said when he reinvented himself his metabolism sped up to the point where it was difficult to keep weight on. I don’t know if AJ ever shared what weight the Bills wanted him at, but he has talked about losing more than he should have. My guess is they wanted him in the 260 range and he showed up 243.

 

EDIT: @Lafromboise there’s nothing to disagree with here. The article is out there featuring AJ himself, telling it like it happened.

Edited Tuesday at 07:01 PM by Brand J

[SectionC3]

36 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Then it would be a surprise wouldn't it?

Oh yeah.  A fair point! 

[NickelCity]

2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Should mean Shavers made the roster 

 

How is KJ Hamler relevant to Shavers' spot on the roster?