Are Fan Expectations Too High for Keon Coleman?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

20 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

Expectations are way too high for rookies and sophomores IN GENERAL. I’ve never known such an impatient group of people in all my life. I remember the “three year rule” that used to be given to WRs. Sometimes it would even take 4 for certain guys. The physicality of NFL CBs is a whole other level. “Touch” is a relatively new concept for Allen. Otherwise, he is launching absolute piss missiles. Guys have complained about bruised hands. I can’t even imagine handling those balls in cold weather. 
 

To answer the OP. Fans have been entirely unfair to Keon. Stat line he put up was very respectable considering he was injured. He has demonstrated every skill in the pros that he showed in college. I expect to make a jump into a Gabe Davis type stat-line. 850 yards, 8 TDs. Year 3 is when the league really starts to take notice. I think the guy who really takes a massive leap is Shakir. 

[HansLanda]

out of the group initially sampled in the OP, Keon was the second-youngest at draft day...Kenny Britt was a few months younger. 

 

Here are Kenny's 9-year career stats, not eye-popping. I assume Keon will take a step this year and be closer to 800 yards than to 500 (barring any injury obvs)

 

Games Played: 116

Games Started: 75

Receptions: 329

Receiving Yards: 5,137

Yards Per Reception (Average): 15.6

Receiving Touchdowns: 32

Longest Reception: 80 yards

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay I was literally one yard out in my Khalil Shakir projection for last year (and bang on the money for TDs) so let's see if I can repeat the dosage with Keon for 2025. 

 

96 targets

52 receptions

858 yards

8 touchdowns

 

 

 

I'd take that depending upon how you see Palmer, Moore, and Samuel

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Suggestions for an 'image makeover':

 

1. In depth human interest interview with Maddy Glab.

2. Stop wearing shoes on the way to practice and games.

3. Try out for the Knicks.  We haven't had a two sport star since Jordan or Jackson. (Don't you dare mention Tom Brady! 🤨)

[DrDawkinstein]

Keon on his rookie season: "When that s--t trash, you got to be better"

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/bills-wr-keon-coleman-gives-harsh-self-assessment-of-rookie-season-you-got-to-be-better

 

But amid the team success, there's one player who vocally admitted this past week that he was not at all satisfied with his individual performance: wide receiver Keon Coleman.

 

"You want to know exactly what I see? When that s--- trash, you got to be better, simple as that," Coleman said of his thoughts looking back on his tape from his first year in the league. "You gotta be more efficient here. You gotta get out of this break. You got to stack your DB. You got to give Josh more room to throw the ball. You gotta catch that. You gotta make that block. You got to get that extra effort on the touchdown block so if Jimbo (James Cook) breaks it, he's up the sideline. Just different things like that. Calling out everything that you're doing wrong to make it right."

 

 

Edited Monday at 04:15 PM by DrDawkinstein

[Dunkirk Donski]

Can someone make a slow emoji for all Keon threads/posts

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'd take that depending upon how you see Palmer, Moore, and Samuel

 

Right now I see Shakir and Keon getting the bulk of the snaps, targets and yards. 

 

Palmer and Moore I see more as situational players and honestly I don't know where I see Samuel's role. McKenzie gadget? Backup and spot duty? Regular starter? No idea. Yardage wise Something like:

 

Shakir 800 to 1,000

Coleman 700 to 900

Kincaid 500 to 750

Palmer 400 to 600

Moore 250 to 500

Samuel 100 to 350

[oldmanfan]

We live in a society of impatience now.  When every single piece of information is available on your phone at the touch of a button, when people get ticked if they have to sit in a Starbucks line for more than 5 minutes, and so on.  So now rookies in pro sports have to be great day 1, and improve after that.  This kid seeks to have taken the criticism he got to heart and worked his ass off in the off-season.  Good for him.

[sunshynman]

17 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

There was not a whole lot of defense going on from the clip I saw. But he looked fluid and athletic.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

We live in a society of impatience now.  When every single piece of information is available on your phone at the touch of a button, when people get ticked if they have to sit in a Starbucks line for more than 5 minutes, and so on.  So now rookies in pro sports have to be great day 1, and improve after that.  This kid seeks to have taken the criticism he got to heart and worked his ass off in the off-season.  Good for him.

 

He also seems to have accepted that the criticism was warranted. I give him real credit for that. Genuinely I do. As someone who isn't the biggest fan of his game I think his presser was really impressive. He did indeed put some trash on tape in 2024. It wasn't all trash. It was interspersed with some good. But impressive for a young kid to hold himself to account the way he did. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Keon looks like a bigger Stevie Johnson to me. I'm hopeful he can be as good as he was 

[Don Otreply]

Fans are very likely to over and or under estimate what players will do,  especially, fans mistakenly assume that when a player is cleared to play after injury they Are at 100% performance level, when in fact they aren’t close to that level of output, an example is what we all know, it takes a full season post being cleared to play for an ACL injury to be ready to go full tilt, yet we all hear the incessant blathering that the player’s career is over, washed, bust etc etc , fans are freaking nuts on a good day, lol 😁🍸🚬

[HappyDays]

No the expectations are right where they should be. He was taken in a WR heavy draft which means the talent was pushed down the board, and we had our pick of 7 different WRs before we traded down. So if Beane and the scouting staff did their jobs properly then Coleman should be expected to develop into at least a solid WR2. That means he needs to be a regular contributor and get a minimum of around 800 yards. Now if he doesn't hit that in year two does that mean he's a bust? Of course not. But this year you want to see meaningful progress leading in that direction if nothing else.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He also seems to have accepted that the criticism was warranted. I give him real credit for that. Genuinely I do. As someone who isn't the biggest fan of his game I think his presser was really impressive. He did indeed put some trash on tape in 2024. It wasn't all trash. It was interspersed with some good. But impressive for a young kid to hold himself to account the way he did. 

 

Yep - i also think people tend to look at players numbers without context, and any evaluation of the other nuances and responsibilities of the position.  

[Paup 1995MVP]

19 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

I don't think the comparison in the original article is very useful.  First, 2002 was before the passing game explosion so receiving numbers back then would be lower.  Secondly, why compare someone's rookie season to career averages?  Third medians are more useful than averages since averages will be more affected by complete busts and injuries.

 

There were 16 WR drafted from #28  to #38 since 2014.  6 of the picks were last year.  Coleman was 11th out of 16 in receptions and 7th out of 11th in 16 in yards.  That pretty much put him as an average late first/early second rookie WR.  The issue is that the Bills could have picked two of the players who did much better statistically than him including McConkey who had the best rookie WR season in a long time. Here are the rankings:

 

By receptions

 

1. Ladd McConkey 2024  82

2. Kelvin Benjamin 2014 73

3. Tee Higgins 2020 67

4. Xavier Worthy 2024 59

5. Deebo Samuel 2019 57

6. Xavier Legette 2024 49

7.  Elijah Moore 2021 43

8. Christian Watson 2022 41

9. Michael Pittman 2020 13

10. Rickey Pearsall 2024 31

11. Keon Coleman 2024 29

12. Zay Jones 2017 27

13. Phillip Dorsett 2015 18

14. N'Keal Harry 2018 12

15. Ja'Lynn Polk 2024 12

16. Devin Smith 2015 9

 

By yards

 

1. Ladd McConkey 2024  1149

2. Kelvin Benjamin 2014 1008

3. Tee Higgins 2020 908

4. Deebo Samuel 2019 802

5. Xavier Worthy 2024 638

6. Christian Watson 2022 611

7. Keon Coleman 2024 556

8.  Elijah Moore 2021 538

9. Michael Pittman 2020 503

10. Xavier Legette 2024 497

11. Rickey Pearsall 2024 400

12. Zay Jones 2017 316

13. Phillip Dorsett 2015 225

14. Devin Smith 2015 115

15. N'Keal Harry 2018 105

16. Ja'Lynn Polk 2024 87

 

The good thing is that the pre 2024 receivers had an average of 6 more receivers and 75 more yards in their second seasons.

Keon Coleman's season was certainly underwhelming.  He wasn't terrible.  But he was not a big time guy for us for the most part.  The numbers are what they are.  He made some plays, but for the most part he was not a big difference maker for us.  I think he will be better this year if he can stay reasonably healthy.  The guy should break 50 receptions (thats averaging 3+ per game)  and get 800+ yards and 5-7 TD's.  That would be a nice but not tremendous season.  And hopefully by next year he is breaking 1000 yards with 70+ receptions.  But that will only happen if he can learn how to get some separation.  

 

I think some of the issues with Coleman and Kincaid (who has also not been nearly as dominant as many of us had hoped for out of his first 2 years) is that they are coming to a veteran team that has had a lot of success since 2019.  On good veteran teams rookies/young players don't usually come in and dominate.  They get some opportunities, but kind of have to know their place is to sit back listen and learn.  The coaches are not desperate for them to be thrown into the fire and lead the team.  And part of that also comes from good teams drafting later in each round.  So we are not drafting top 10 talented players.  Later picks usually will take longer to get to the level of being dominant.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

Im gonna say Coleman tops 1000 yards this year. Who's with me?

 

[Royale with Cheese]

18 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Im gonna say Coleman tops 1000 yards this year. Who's with me?

 

 

I just can't get there yet with him.  I see more like 600-700 yards with about 6 TD's.  I see him more as big chunk plays a few times a game.  He will have a high YPC average I believe.

Edited 17 hours ago by Royale with Cheese

[US Egg]

3 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

We haven't had a two sport star since Jordan or Jackson. (Don't you dare mention Tom Brady! 🤨)

So 'dating' jet set models, actresses, and the like, isn't a sport? 

[3rdand12]

On 6/15/2025 at 5:01 PM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Interesting theory. And who was tossing him the ball last year?

 

If his numbers are better this year it's most likely because:

 

1. He stays healthy 

2. It's his second season in the system and he likely knows a bit more.

AND he still has Josh Allen tossing him the ball 😋

[BuffaloBaumer]

I don't feel like many people, if any, are putting high expectations on Keon. I think everyone would be fine if he turns out to be a solid #2 target. Not for even a second did I expect him to be a true #1. Now if he can't reach #2 level, I suppose I would be let down a little.