Alphamock Draft: **UPDATE** Final v3.0 posted on Page 4

[Alphadawg7]

***UPDATE*** GO TO PAGE 4 FOR FINAL 3.0 VERSION

 

Here is my official version 2.0 on a first round Mock.  Not sure I will do a v3.0, this one took me 3 days and a lot of hours of research and calls to some people I know and trust with actual insider insight.  I would love to update one before the draft Thursday, but not sure I will have the time to put in between now and then to make a meaningful stab at it.  I still want to expand it to a 2 rounder at some point as well and do have a working draft, however, since this one took me 3 days with lots of changes along the way as new info came about, it kept affecting my 2nd round and I didn't want to just throw up a round 2 without properly working through it.  So hopefully I can find some time to finish that as I was enjoying round 2 as well.  

 

CLICK HERE FOR LINK TO v1.0

 

NOTE:  Trades are color coated.  The two teams linked in the trade are marked with *TRADE* in the same color to easily track who that trade played out on both ends of it.  Compensation in bold of the same color on the higher pick of the trade.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.  And as we get closer, the odds for this pick being Jayden are going down while Mayes are going up...just saying.
3. New England - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  In v1.0, I previously had them passing on a QB to take MHJ as I kind of thought their eyes were set on Maye, but now there is buzz and stuff I am hearing that they like both Maye and Daniels, so with that in mind, NE now makes the smarter choice and goes and gets a QB.
4. *TRADE* - Giants (via Arizona):  JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  This is the same trade I made in the TSW mock draft as GM of the Cardinals, moving back to 6 with NY Giants, who know Jones ain't their guy, and that teams at 11, 12, and 13 who are all looking for a QB.  So Giants take their shot here and move up to insure one of the other teams doesn't leap frog them at 4 or 5 and gets their guy.  Giants have been doing a LOT of homework on the QB's and reports are that they have had great meetings with McCarthy and a great dinner with him at Ruth's Chris and are high on him.  Cardinals already armed with 2 first rounders and 3 third rounders don't need a bounty on a move back here, so they opt to take the smaller offer and stay within range to still get one of the big 3 WR's.  Comp received:  ARI gets 6 & 70 - NYG gets 4
5. Chargers - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  Chargers win the lottery here landing what is seen as the best player in the draft thanks to the Giants move up to McCarthy as they give Herbert an elite talent after losing their top 2 WR's.  (Odunze wouldn't surprise me here either).
6. *TRADE* - Cardinals (via Giants):  Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Previously, I have had Nabers here, but I am hearing more and more that there are teams who have Odunze as the 1st or 2nd WR in this draft.  Murray had his best success with a big WR with excellent hands and catch radius in Hopkins, so I am starting to think Odunze could be the pick here.  Having lost their top WR's, they still add an elite weapon for Murray while adding some extra draft capital along the way.  Cardinals are in a great position to really reset their foundation with the amount of draft ammo they have in the first 4 rounds of this draft. (Would be MHJ if Chargers went Odunze)
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Not a lot to say here, maybe the safest mock pick in the draft outside Caleb...Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  Atlanta looks to bolster their DL with the best DT in the draft who is a guy that just moves different than the other DT's in the draft, who can get off the ball and shoot the gaps to wreak havoc.  He is as much a force against the run as he is the pass as well and who could become an anchor up front for Atlanta for years to come.  One of the edge rushers could be in this spot too such as Turner or Verse.   
9. *TRADE* Colts (via Chicago) Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  While I know WR is a popular pick here, but its a bit of a luxury pick based on the needs of the team already having a long term WR1 and Keenan Allen for at least this season.  This is a deep WR draft, they can find a guy to play opposite Moore later with the draft pick ammo they just added.  There is just more and more buzz I am seeing about Bears maybe looking OL early, especially since Caleb has even been on social media about the importance of OL and having that been an issue for him at USC.  And if they are willing to pass on Nabers, they can move back here and still snag a premiere prospect on the OL and add more draft capital given they only have 4 picks.  For me, I think to move back and pass on one of the big 3 WRs, there needs to be enough draft compensation to do it, so I am looking at Colts here who are now staring down the barrel of a loaded Houston team in a loaded AFC conference in general.  So they make a move here to get an elite weapon to pair with Richardson and Pittman.  Comp received:  CHI gets 15, 82, 117 - IND gets 9
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  With the Jets spending in FA on the OL (albeit short term help) I think it's a pretty good bet they look to appease Aaron Rodgers and go Bowers here, who is a mismatch nightmare, and maybe the best TE prospect of the past decade.  If one of the big 3 WR's land here, then may be that player over Bowers.  But I think they will be gone inside the top 10.  Although I still wouldn't rule out OL here either as there are some real talented guys they could take to help anchor that line for years, but given they are in a win now mode, I think with the short term OL help addressed some already in free agency, they go ahead and take Bowers.
11. Vikings - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  After not matching what Arizona wanted to move for a QB, Vikings stay true to their board and add what many regard as the top corner in the draft who has been lighting up the offseason.
12. Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon:  Originally had Penix here, but after reading more into it, seems there is more Denver interest in Bo and it feels like his accuracy and intelligence will be something Sean Payton will be more intrigued by given his days with Brees where those were 2 of his strong suits.  
13. Raiders - Michael Penix Jr, QB,  Washington:  This is another change for me, there seems to be a lot of growing buzz about Raiders and Penix.  And HC Pierce has been vocal about the need to get a QB in a division with Mahomes and Herbert.  There are a lot of injury concerns with Penix though, so while this may feel early, there is also the fact that Vikings pick again at 23 and with Nix gone here, Penix could easily be in play there.  And trading back up above 23 would be costly.  If they really like Penix as much as being stated, then trading back up in bottom of first or waiting and hoping he falls out of the first would be a huge gamble for the Raiders.  I try not to get too caught up in buzz, but I have a hard time believing Raiders feel good about Aidan and Uncle Rico as their 2 QB's this year, so the Penix interest feels plausible.   
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. *TRADE* Bears (via Colts) - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  As I mentioned in pick 9, there seems to be a growing sentiment the Bears may look to bolster their OL to help their young QB who has already been on social media about the importance of OL.  Adding Troy who can come in and push someone like Bates who struggled last year on the inside or compete to start as an upgrade at tackle is exactly the kind of versatility Bears would be thrilled to add.  I was tempted to go Jared Verse here as they need help on the DL too, but for the reasons above I came back to Troy.
16. Seattle - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  The draft falls favorably for Seattle here as they really need help all along the DL and are able to scoop maybe the best edger rusher in the draft.  If Byron Murphy doesn't go to Atlanta at 8, I could see him going here too.
17. Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name to take Thomas, but I think this may be out of the range Beane will go up to for Thomas where it still likely takes our next years first.  But I know its probably going to take a first, so not only do I not want to do it, I don't think Beane will either.  So, Jags stay put and address their secondary in a division that is starting to have the makings of a high powered juggernaught and take one of the top corners in the draft.
18. Bengals - JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  3 straight Bama guys come off the board as Bengals have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and signing Trent Brown on a one year deal with his injury history isn't enough to keep them from looking to the future here.  Bengals are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best RT ones here to hopefully be the long term guy opposite Olrando Brown for years to come.
19. LA Rams - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Buzz here is that McVay is gonna go offense in his first ever first round pick, and I get that.  And there are some medical concern rumors around Latu as well that put this pick here in doubt.  But, they need to bolster their pass rush, especially since they both need help on the edge and they have lost the QB pressure from inside that Donald brought for so many years.  Which leads me to Latu here, the hometown star from UCLA staying home in LA. 
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is their chance to add maybe the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that Center position for years to come.  There is some chatter of this being a place Brian Thomas Jr. goes via them picking him or someone like Bills trading up to get him.  So won't surprise me to see BTJ go here in some fashion, but I just think JPJ is just a different breed and the kind of player Steelers covet.
21. Miami - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  With big needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball, they have a lot of options here.  Miami did sign like 7 guys on the DL this offseason, but all of them are more suited as role players.  So I flipped flopped between Jared and OL help (like Barton, Mims, etc) here several times before settling on Verse, and still tempted to flip again lol as I think this could go either side of the trenches.  But I feel the value is higher on OL in round 2 than DL, so I used that as the defacto tie breaker and went ahead with Verse even though I am still torn on this one.  
22. *TRADE* Buffalo (via Eagles):  Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  Bills see the chance to lock in and insure they get BTJ moving up to 22 to get him for picks 28, 128, and 2025 3rd rounder.  Originally I had Bills trading back from 28, but that was with BTJ off the board in the teens.  With him getting into the 20's, Beane felt the value was there to go get a 6'3" guy with 4.3 forty speed to pair with Allen during this next era of his prime and hopefully giving DC's nightmares for years to come.  
23. *TRADE* Washington (via Vikings) - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Having missed on trying to get McCarthy followed with both Nix and Penix coming off at 12 and 13, the Vikings trade back and add a 3rd rounder (as they have no 2nd or 3rd round picks coming into the draft).  Commanders are chomping at the bit to move back up and get one of these OT's, which is why I think if the Bills hold on to 28, Washington is a major potential trade back partner if they haven't moved up already.  But, with how this draft played out, this Vikings pick is a great spot for the Commanders to go get a premiere tackle prospect to help protect their new QB, especially with teams looming after this pick that could be looking for OL help as well like the Cowboys up next.  Comp received:  MIN gets 36 & 67 - WAS gets 23
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  There are some guys here at OL that make a lot of sense for Dallas, but Jones and company are drooling over that 4.2 speed in the dome and decide they can't pass up the opportunity on adding this kind of elite speed to his dome team to play opposite Lamb and makes the move to add some much needed firepower to the offense.
25. Packers - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire and take one of the top corners in the draft in Wiggins.  If Wiggins is gone in the real draft here, I can also see some OL help in bound with this pick as well.
26. Tampa - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Bucs considered bolstering their pass rush here, but were stoked to find Barton still on the board and decided that his versatility and strength was too good to pass up to bolster that interior OL to help Baker succeed.  
27. Arizona - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  In my v1.0 Newton was off the board to Miami, but with Verse falling there in this one it allowed Newton to fall here to where I think is a highly likely destination for him.  Newton has even been vocal about loving the Cardinals and if he is here I think this will most likely be the pick as AZ looks to bolster a unity very much in need of the help.  
28. *TRADE* Eagles (Via Buffalo):  Cooper DeJean:  After the trade down with the Bills, the Eagles land the man dubbed the "Swiss army knife" and look to bolster a secondary very much in need of the help.   Cooper is interesting to me, I can see him going earlier too starting in the mid teens.  
29. Detroit - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  Lions could very well take Adonai Mitchell here or even someone on the OL, but with a high powered offense already in stow, I have changed my mind and have them addressing their biggest need and taking the talented corner from Alabama to help bolster their defense. 
30. Ravens - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona:  I have moved off WR here for Ravens given the fact they lost 3 OL this offseason and if they want Lamar and Henry to be at their best, they need to bolster this unit and Morgan can potentially play RT or G giving them a versatile player to plug in.  
31. 49ers - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later and take the mammoth Mims.  While someone like Guyton could go here and has maybe a higher floor, the potential of Mims is too good to pass up.  Mims is another one of those guys I can see going as earlier as well, just gonna depend on which tackle a team prefers as there are several strong prospects that will be on the board between picks 10 and 32 and at the top of round 2.    
32. Chiefs - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A controversial pick I am sure as many think this would be CB, OL, or a different WR.  But...I have now had some people I trust tell me several times that Polk is quietly one of the biggest risers in the draft and has end of first, top 10 of 2nd potential to go.  One of them told me that both Balt and KC are very high on him.  Polk makes so much sense for them both.  Chiefs are sick of drops and Polk has some of the best hands, body control, and ball skills in the draft.  He also plays physical and go over the middle where they have relied on Kelce for years who is probably in his last season.  He is also the best blocking WR in the draft and KC throws the most passes at or behind the LOS in the league and relies a lot on blocking.  So while I can see a number of players at CB, OL, and DL here as well along with a different WR too like Mitchell or McConkey, I am gonna go with the Polk as he is also a personal favorite of mine.  

 

NOTES:  This came about through individually researching each teem, their needs, insight from people I know personally and general chatter, buzz, and rumors online around certain players/teams.  And it took me 3 days to get to pick 32 as I was making many amendments along the way as new information was being discovered.  

• One change already that I am eyeing if I do a v3.0 is what to do at 12 and 13.  I cover this more in "Surprises" below, but will the Raiders pull the trigger at 13 for Penix is a big question for me and I think it is highly impacted by who ends up trading for McCarthy and maybe even what Denver does at 12.  But all the buzz around Penix seems to lie mostly with the Raiders.
• This is a fun draft to mock.  There are a lot of scenarios that can play out at the top which impact how this draft falls.  Unlike some drafts where the first 7 to 10 picks were highly predictable.  
• I think it is a safe bet that Washington will be trading back into the first as it's been widely reported they want some OL help for their new QB.  And if Bills don't trade up for Thomas, I do think they make a lot of sense as a trade back partner, assuming they haven't already traded up before our pick.  
• Im still torn on passing on OL for Miami at 21 and taking Verse.  Fastest offense in the league and can't win a playoff game or their division with a 4 game lead late.  Why...because it's too easy to disrupt getting to Tua early and disrupting his early reads.  But, like I said on that pick, the OL depth is better in round 2 than DL.

 

Surprises:  I think the biggest surprises of the this mock are:

• 6 QB's going top 13 - This is the one thing that is sticking out to me the most as the questionable.  Will both Nix and Penix go back to back 12 and 13?  Well, to be honest, I think Penix going 13 may come down to whether or not Denver takes Nix at 12.  Vikings are looming in this mock at 23 where they could easily take Penix if they wanted after missing out on moving up for McCarthy as I have them in this mock.  So, if that happens, then Bo going 12 puts a lot of pressure on Raiders to take Penix sooner rather than later by trying to trade back up into the first.  If Denver passes on a QB at 12, then I am not sure the Raiders feel as much pressure to take Penix at 13.  
  • If Vikings end up being the one to trade up for McCarthy then I doubt Nix and Penix go back to back as I think the Raiders would feel more comfortable looking to trade back in towards the end of round 1 for Penix with Vikings out of the way at 23 and Denver reportedly preferring Nix.  
• Thomas makes it out of the 12-18 pick range he is most often believed to go to teams like Den (12), Indy (15), Jags (17), Bengals (18) and he very well could.  But, my thinking was I would be surprised to see him go to Denver over other players who should be higher on their boards still there at 12, plus the 2 QB's.  Indy very well could take him, although I think if they don't trade up for one of the big 3 WR's there are CB's there they would take before Thomas at 15.  Jags signed Davis to go along with Kirk and Zay, so while thats not great, its also not their biggest need where they really need a CB, especially with what Houston is doing.  And Bengals must keep Burrow healthy, I have a hard time seeing them not go OL at 18.  
  • Steelers passing on Thomas at 20.  One, I think Bills could trade here with them and there is some buzz about it too.  But they have glaring needs on the OL and there are multiple top prospects likely there at 20 who can bolster that unit, including the 2 best centers for a team who needs a center. 
• Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens and Chiefs offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement those offenses and both teams I believe are very high on him.  So in v1.0 (Ravens) and now 2.0 (Chiefs) I have him sneaking in ahead of some of the other guys like Mitchell and McConkey more often seen as going in the 1st.    

 

And like with any mock, take it with a grain of salt as I am sure, like just about all mocks, it will look quite different on draft night anyway lol.  But it was a real fun exercise getting in tune with all 32 team needs and the prospects that might fit there.  Especially since its changed my view on who I really want to see the Bills go after this draft, including finding a way to get some guys in round 3 via trade back at 28 or trade up from one of our 4ths.  

 

Edited April 25 by Alphadawg7

[Aussie Joe]

What happened to the Franklin “real smoke” you were hearing on Thursday ? Moving up in the Second for him ? 
 

Hey … I wouldnt hate it …

[TBBills Fan]

Thank you!  All the insights and opinions on the draft is very helpful for someone like me who doesn't really follow college ball.  

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

What happened to the Franklin “real smoke” you were hearing on Thursday ? Moving up in the Second for him ? 
 

Hey … I wouldnt hate it …

I very much think Franklin smoke is legit and high on their board.  But I have to believe Thomas is higher on their board.  And in version 1.0 I had Thomas going earlier and Bills not getting the chance to trade up for him.  
 

In this update I think Thomas may just make it to the 20’s in which I think that is very much in range of where Beane would trade up for him if he indeed has Thomas higher on his board, and enough so that he wants to trade up for him.

Edited April 22 by Alphadawg7

[Virgil]

@Alphadawg7Do you know what meeting history the Bills have with Thomas?   
 

I’m not knocking the pick, just curious to know how much smoke there is 

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

@Alphadawg7Do you know what meeting history the Bills have with Thomas?   
 

I’m not knocking the pick, just curious to know how much smoke there is 

 
There is at least one confirmed meeting with Thomas.  None that I cant find any with the big 3, but they did reportedly meet with Thomas who also confirmed himself he met with Bills at least once.  

Edited April 21 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

I do think Chicago passing on Nabers is more believable than them passing on Odunze, just based on who they already have. But I don't see the Colts as a trade up team personally.

 

EDIT: the other thing I always say at this time of year and will remind myself before I do my final mock on Thursday morning is "believe what you hear in Jan and Feb, discount what you here in March and April."

Edited April 21 by GunnerBill

[Doc]

I'd be surprised if the Giants trade up with the Cards.  Neither the Cards nor the Chargers want a QB and both want pass catchers so the likelihood of them trading down past the Giants are slim to none. 

[GunnerBill]

I think Morgan to the Ravens is a very astute pick. If he is on the board he is their guy. Heard that from 1 person directly and 1 podcast. But Mims is either gone at #20 to the Steelers or #24 to Dallas. They both LOVE him. I think no way he makes it down that far.

[Doc]

 

As for trading up, I think they'd use the 2nd rounder in 2025.  Points-wise that gets them as high as 17 so picks could come back if it's lower.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

I'd be surprised if the Giants trade up with the Cards.  Neither the Cards nor the Chargers want a QB and both want pass catchers so the likelihood of them trading down past the Giants are slim to none. 

Not sure why you think that when Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders are all sitting at picks 11, 12, and 13 who each want a QB.  Both Cardinals and Chargers are both commonly mocked places where one of those 3 teams move to get him.  
 

It’s like when the Bears moved up one spot from 3 to 2 in order to insure they got Trubisky.  
 

If Giants want McCarthy, they very well may need to move up to 4 or 5 to get him to block the other teams making the trade up to get him

Edited April 21 by Alphadawg7

[Doc]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Not sure why you think that when Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders are all sitting at picks 11, 12, and 13 who each want a QB.  Both Cardinals and Chargers are both commonly mocked places where one of those 3 teams move to get him.  
 

It’s like when the Bears moved up one spot from 3 to 2 in order to insure they got Trubisky.  
 

If Giants want McCarthy, they very well may need to move up to 4 or 5 to get him to block the other teams making the trade up to get him.

 

The Cards and Chargers need WRs to help their QBs.  If they trade down to 11 or lower, they're sure to miss-out on the top 2, if not top 3, WRs. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The Cards and Chargers need WRs to help their QBs.  If they trade down to 11 or lower, they're sure to miss-out on the top 2, if not top 3, WRs. 

 

The Cards moved down then up again last year. I think they may well try the same.

[Alphadawg7]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Morgan to the Ravens is a very astute pick. If he is on the board he is their guy. Heard that from 1 person directly and 1 podcast. But Mims is either gone at #20 to the Steelers or #24 to Dallas. They both LOVE him. I think no way he makes it down that far.

Thanks and it’s what I’ve heard in regards to Ravens and Morgan as well. 
 

I agree Mims could go 20 or 24 too, I had the hardest time placing him as he is in play in a few spots.  I still think JPJ just feels like a Steelers guy though and a big need for them and Dallas badly needs to add some play making and speed too.  So I have this feeling they will fall in love with Worthy opposite Lamb and look to address OL later.  But would not surprise me at all if they end up going OL, and it’s what I would do if I was Dallas.

Edited April 21 by Alphadawg7

[Wizard]

Best part about Mock Drafts is no matter how much we get invested, how much we read, hear opinions, or follow mock drafts, we may get 4-5 players with the team and pick we thought they would go, no matter how hard we try in the first round to make predictions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The Cards moved down then up again last year. I think they may well try the same.

 

It would be risky.  I think Arizona did it because Murray was going to miss half the season, thus making it a wasted season, so why not trade down and stockpile picks.  Detroit did it because they were targeting Gibbs with their 1st pick and figured no one would take him in the top-half of the 1st round (they were probably sweating-it-out when Atlanta took Robinson 8th overall).  Meanwhile the Falcons are there at 8 to trade down for a team looking for a WR while Chicago would love to take one at 9 to pair with Williams.

 

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Which is why I think Giants make the most sense. 

 

I would agree if both teams didn't need WRs for their franchise QBs. 

 

It will be interesting to see how it turns out.  I don't think McCarthy will be any good, much less merit giving-up extra picks.

Edited April 21 by Doc

[Brandon]

I'm not a huge fan of trading up for Thomas,  but I get it. 

 

Although I think Polk will go a round later,  I'm not going to argue considering that I think Pearsall could go late R1.

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It would be risky.  I think Arizona did it because Murray was going to miss half the season, thus making it a wasted season, so why not trade down and stockpile picks.  Detroit did it because they were targeting Gibbs with their 1st pick and figured no one would take him in the top-half of the 1st round (they were probably sweating-it-out when Atlanta took Robinson 8th overall).  Meanwhile the Falcons are there at 8 to trade down for a team looking for a WR while Chicago would love to take one at 9 to pair with Williams.

 

 

I would agree if both teams didn't need WRs for their franchise QBs. 

 

It will be interesting to see how it turns out.  I don't think McCarthy will be any good, much less merit giving-up extra picks.

 

Which is why I think Vikings are not going to be the one to trade up with AZ because they reportedly want 3 first rounders...both Vikings firsts this year and their first next year.  I just not sure Minny pulls that trigger.  But Chargers may do it for less and take both Minny's first rounders to move back, which is why I think Giants may feel they need to make the move to get ahead of the Vikings (Or Broncos and Raiders).  

 

AZ is in a great spot here.  They already have 2 firsts and 3 thirds coming into the draft along with their high 2nd and 4th rounder.  If they move back with Giants they would pick up another high 3rd round pick and another high 4th rounder...and because its for a QB, they might be able to squeeze them into giving up even more than that.  AZ has a terrible roster and need help all over the place.  And with the kind of ammo they could have after a trade back, they can really control this draft by not only using the abundance of picks they would have in the first 4 rounds, but also moving around the draft to get who they covet.

[LEBills]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Which is why I think Vikings are not going to be the one to trade up with AZ because they reportedly want 3 first rounders...both Vikings firsts this year and their first next year.  I just not sure Minny pulls that trigger.  But Chargers may do it for less and take both Minny's first rounders to move back, which is why I think Giants may feel they need to make the move to get ahead of the Vikings (Or Broncos and Raiders).  

 

AZ is in a great spot here.  They already have 2 firsts and 3 thirds coming into the draft along with their high 2nd and 4th rounder.  If they move back with Giants they would pick up another high 3rd round pick and another high 4th rounder...and because its for a QB, they might be able to squeeze them into giving up even more than that.  AZ has a terrible roster and need help all over the place.  And with the kind of ammo they could have after a trade back, they can really control this draft by not only using the abundance of picks they would have in the first 4 rounds, but also moving around the draft to get who they covet.

If Arizona moves back and misses out on MHJ for just a third and a fourth, all 3 fans will get into a Fiat Pop and run Gannon and Co out of town imo. They may move back, but I think it would have to be a much bigger haul. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I do think Chicago passing on Nabers is more believable than them passing on Odunze, just based on who they already have. But I don't see the Colts as a trade up team personally.

 

EDIT: the other thing I always say at this time of year and will remind myself before I do my final mock on Thursday morning is "believe what you hear in Jan and Feb, discount what you here in March and April."

 

I had some trouble with the Bears pick to be honest.  I had one person who has some insider info across the NFL tell me that there is a big focus on the OL, especially with pressure to be sure Caleb can be the guy after moving Fields which wasn't that popular in the locker room.  Then Caleb was on social referencing the importance of the OL too the other day.  And WR feels like a luxury pick with DJ Moore there long term and Allen there at least short term.  They can find a guy to replace Allen potentially later as well especially if they add more picks on a trade back.  

 

The Colts were the only ones within a reasonable distance to the Bears that made sense to me to go get Nabers.  And when I was watching Pat Mcafee show he was talking about how there is some growing belief the Colts are feeling pressure to get more explosive with what Houston is doing and need to make a splash move.  With him being a former Colt, that seemed to make some sense.  And with that pick, Bears are still in a spot to get a premiere prospect on the OL.  So I went ahead and pulled the trigger as I do think the Bears would first try and trade back if they are gonna go OL.

 

By no means do I think this is a sure thing, but hey that is the fun of the mocks, so many ways things can go down

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

If Arizona moves back and misses out on MHJ for just a third and a fourth, all 3 fans will get into a Fiat Pop and run Gannon and Co out of town imo. They may move back, but I think it would have to be a much bigger haul. 

 

I agree it will be likely for more, moves to go up and get QB's come with a premium.  But because I am only mocking round 1, I just stuck with what was more balanced to the points of the picks.  How much they get is gonna come down to how bad someone wants McCarthy and where they are moving up from.  

42 minutes ago, Wizard said:

Best part about Mock Drafts is no matter how much we get invested, how much we read, hear opinions, or follow mock drafts, we may get 4-5 players with the team and pick we thought they would go, no matter how hard we try in the first round to make predictions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah just a fun exercise...I do it because I love football, not just the Bills, so I enjoy doing a deep dive into the individual teams.  Also finds it helps me come fantasy football draft season, like I better know the players and situations of each team to find value where others may miss.  

 

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Thanks and it’s what I’ve heard in regards to Ravens and Morgan as well. 
 

I agree Mims could go 20 or 24 too, I had the hardest time placing him as he is in play in a few spots.  I still think JPJ just feels like a Steelers guy though and a big need for them and Dallas badly needs to add some play making and speed too.  So I have this feeling they will fall in love with Worthy opposite Lamb and look to address OL later.  But would not surprise me at all if they end up going OL, and it’s what I would do if I was Dallas.

My Pitt media insider is saying Mims or potential trade back for Steelers.  He's not perfect, but right more often than not.  JPJ if trade back.

 

He also mentioned Rd2 focus for Steelers is WR, hearing Roman Wilson or Pearsall.

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

1. 6 QB's going top 13 - This is the one thing that is sticking out to me the most as the questionable.  Will both Nix and Penix go back to back 12 and 13?  Well, to be honest, I think Penix going 13 may come down to whether or not Denver takes Nix at 12.  Vikings are looming in this mock at 23 where they could easily take Penix if they wanted after missing out on moving up for McCarthy as I have them in this mock.  So, if that happens, then Bo going 12 puts a lot of pressure on Raiders to take Penix sooner rather than later by trying to trade back up into the first.  If Denver passes on a QB at 12, then I am not sure the Raiders feel as much pressure to take Penix at 13.  

• • If Vikings end up being the one to trade up for McCarthy then I doubt Nix and Penix go back to back as I think the Raiders would feel more comfortable looking to trade back in towards the end of round 1 for Penix with Vikings out of the way at 23 and Denver reportedly preferring Nix. 

Yeah, that's too crazy to me. This QB class isn't great enough for that. Are there really that many teams who are so desperate? Most of these guys are gonna bust...hard. IMO Daniels shouldn't even be a first rounder. But that's probably just my ASU fan bias coming out.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, that's too crazy to me. This QB class isn't great enough for that. Are there really that many teams who are so desperate? Most of these guys are gonna bust...hard. IMO Daniels shouldn't even be a first rounder. But that's probably just my ASU fan bias coming out.

 

Thats the sad part...there are that many teams.  Chicago, Washington, and Patriots are the first 3 picks and all badly need a QB.  Giants seem to be ready for a change over Daniel Jones as they have been researching the QB's hard.  Vikings at 11 only have Sam Darnold and need one.  Broncos at 12 badly need one.  And Raiders do as well at 13.  That is 7 very QB needy teams in the first 13 picks.  

 

So not a lock that 6 go, but 4 for sure are but 5 or 6 is quite possible.

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name to take Thomas

 

The number of holes punched into drywall throughout western new york if Beane did this…

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

My Pitt media insider is saying Mims or potential trade back for Steelers.  He's not perfect, but right more often than not.  JPJ if trade back.

 

He also mentioned Rd2 focus for Steelers is WR, hearing Roman Wilson or Pearsall.

 

Thanks that is good to know.  I thought of Mims there too as I saw some buzz on him, I just leaned JPJ because I thought they needed a center more and he seemed like a Steelers type of player.  But if I do a v3.0 I will maybe look at putting Mims in there as I was kind of back and forth on a few spots for him on where he might go.  

 

The place I wanted to mock Mims too was Dallas but I just have a feeling they are going to go Worthy as they need to add some firepower to that offense and Worthy getting to stay in Texas and playing in a dome opposite Lamb just feels like a fit.  

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The number of holes punched into drywall throughout western new york if Beane did this…

 

Why, many people want us to trade up for Thomas?  Personally, I don't want us to if it costs us a first, nor do I think Beane will if does either.  Which is why I didn't have us taking him there.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Well done. Excellent analysis. 

 

One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. He is a game manager with good accuracy. Ok but not elite size. Ok but not very good speed.  Decent arm.

 

Just curious if you think he is a top 5 talent?

[DrDawkinstein]

My only nitpick is, if the board does fall like this, I think the Chiefs end up with Franklin or McConky over Polk.

 

Out of those 3, I'd be happiest if the Chiefs went with Polk.

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats the sad part...there are that many teams.  Chicago, Washington, and Patriots are the first 3 picks and all badly need a QB.  Giants seem to be ready for a change over Daniel Jones as they have been researching the QB's hard.  Vikings at 11 only have Sam Darnold and need one.  Broncos at 12 badly need one.  And Raiders do as well at 13.  That is 7 very QB needy teams in the first 13 picks.  

 

So not a lock that 6 go, but 4 for sure are but 5 or 6 is quite possible.

 

That's why if I'm the Giants, I'm looking to trade out of that spot and pick up an extra 1st for next year.

 

They're stuck with Jones this year no matter what. Trade down, use picks to build the roster around the QB. Then use that extra 1st to maneuver around next year to get a QB.

 

There are just soooo many teams taking QBs this year, and the pool is not nearly as deep as those folks are hoping.

Edited April 22 by DrDawkinstein

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Well done. Excellent analysis. 

 

One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. He is a game manager with good accuracy. Ok but not elite size. Ok but not very good speed.  Decent arm.

 

Just curious if you think he is a top 5 talent?

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

 

Not only do I agree with that McCarthy assessment, I also want to note I have Bo Nix behind him as well.

 

There's going to be a LOT of reaching for QBs if the draft plays out like all the experts mock.

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

[BuffaloRebound]

I think Bowers is a steal for anybody outside the top 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes before at least 1 of the big 3 WR’s 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think Bowers is a steal for anybody outside the top 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes before at least 1 of the big 3 WR’s 

I think the Jets would be crazy not to take him. They signed Mike Williams and already have Garrett Wilson, and Bowers would put them over the top. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

 

I just can't get past that Penn State game.  I get that he was hurt but they were hiding him - they would not let him throw the ball.  

[BuffaloRebound]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Jets would be crazy not to take him. They signed Mike Williams and already have Garrett Wilson, and Bowers would put them over the top. 

I don’t think he lasts that long.  I could see the Chargers taking him at 5 if Harrison goes at 4.  Giants should take him at 6, same with Titans at 7.  If he makes it to 8, then I could see Colts trading up with Atlanta.  Same with Bears at 9.  

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

I just can't get past that Penn State game.  I get that he was hurt but they were hiding him - they would not let him throw the ball.  

It's just one game, though. He had a lot of good games. Plus Michigan was built to run the ball. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It's just one game, though. He had a lot of good games. Plus Michigan was built to run the ball. 

 

I know it and you're right.  But still... that was a game that was there for the taking (they pulled away late) and they would not let him throw the ball.  How can he be a top five pick in that scenario?  It would be unprecedented.  But I guess maybe he was just hurt and they were trying to power through it.

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

 

He's had a great process and it is fair the 3rd down stat. I think he reminds me a bit of Joe Flacco in that I think strong running game and then ask him to make the odd throw off of play action or third and medium and he can have some success. I don't think he has Flacco's arm and it is hard to know whether he has the ability Joe had to hit to the big play when it was needed because he was just not asked to. Maybe he can. But it isn't there on tape.

[eee1776]

Thanks for doing all that. Your picks are as good as all the other talking heads(people who gey paid for doing there mocks.) 

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He's had a great process and it is fair the 3rd down stat. I think he reminds me a bit of Joe Flacco in that I think strong running game and then ask him to make the odd throw off of play action or third and medium and he can have some success. I don't think he has Flacco's arm and it is hard to know whether he has the ability Joe had to hit to the big play when it was needed because he was just not asked to. Maybe he can. But it isn't there on tape.

Interesting comp with Flacco. I think McCarthy is significantly more mobile than Flacco ever was. Having said that, Flacco in retrospect should have been a top five pick in this draft and maybe even second overall after Matt Ryan: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2008/draft.htm. He's had a very good career overall.