NFL MVP

[FireChans]

Just now, Herc11 said:

8th would make him pretty close to average. Certainly not something to quote when saying he was the best. I don't give him the ints because his attempts are lower than everyone else. A better number would be attempts/int ratio. Im at work so I'm not going to dive into figuring that out right now. Also, if your going to talk about ints with a running QB youve got to include fumbles.

 

I edited my last post about the one stat. There you will find my thoughts on QBR. 

 

 

In a league where 35 QB's threw at least 200 passes or more, 8 is not "close to average." That's a mathematical fact.

 

QBR and passer rating are not the same thing.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

And have a great offense. I posted the recipe earlier for you.

 

No, earlier you said “great” stats. You’ve downgraded that to “pretty good” - right move - because Lamar’s stats certainly weren’t great.

 

Tannehill in 2021 was on the Titans #1 seeded team had a 106 passer rating with 3700 yards and 28 TD’s.

 

Again, zero MVP votes.

 

In fact, Lamar’s stats may be the worst for an MVP winner in a decade or more.

[Herc11]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

In a league where 35 QB's threw at least 200 passes or more, 8 is not "close to average." That's a mathematical fact.

 

QBR and passer rating are not the same thing.

My bad, I thought I read QBR. Although, passer rating is also a made up calculated stat that has shown its weakness in the past. The whole reason ESPN tries to make something better by creating QBR.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, gobills404 said:

I think it should be punishable offense than you think a WR was more valuable to their team than Josh.

He had one of the greatest seasons ever for a WR.

Josh had 1 elite performance (PIT) since the 1st of October (MIA) and was largely mediocre most of the year and at multiple occasions was the worst player on the field costing his team games (NYJ,DEN). MVPs don't do that. Injuries certainly played a role in Hill getting demoted, but his season paled in comparison to Tyreek  .Allen's one 1st place vote also votes Lamar 3rd and was clearly a troll vote.

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s almost like games are more than the scores, huh?

 

You point out the Bills needing a punt return TD against Miami but don’t mention how Baltimore blew out Cleveland the first game because Dorian Thompson-Robinson (a 3rd stringer) was their starting QB.

 

 

 

I pointed out how the Lamar led Ravens demolished playoff contenders. You can take that win against the Browns away if it makes you happy. Still doesn’t change much. Meanwhile the Bills were fortunate to beat a few of their contenders: the second game against the fish, the KC game, and the Buccaneers games all could’ve ended differently with one bounce or one call. But that doesn’t fit your “average margin of victory against playoff teams was 13 points” narrative, so I understand where you’re coming from. 

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

What I find interesting is that 24 out of the 50 voters left Josh entirely off their ballot. In what world does he not deserve at least a top 5 vote for this season ? 

Easy. Every player above him was unquestionably better than he was, s was Tyreek and Stroud.

[Goin Breakdown]

4 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

What I find interesting is that 24 out of the 50 voters left Josh entirely off their ballot. In what world does he not deserve at least a top 5 vote for this season ? 

I think that once the matti rice is out about a player, then that's what they'll always be viewed as. 
Josh- not very accurate, fun to watch but plays hero ball. He's big and will jump over and bull through you, so basically, he's not smart. 
This is what I get from watching and reading media outside of buffalo. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No, earlier you said “great” stats. You’ve downgraded that to “pretty good” - right move - because Lamar’s stats certainly weren’t great.

 

Tannehill in 2021 was on the Titans #1 seeded team had a 106 passer rating with 3700 yards and 28 TD’s.

 

Again, zero MVP votes.

 

In fact, Lamar’s stats may be the worst for an MVP winner in a decade or more.

That Titans team didn't have a good offense. Read the formula one more time.

[Albany,n.y.]

23 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:

Blast from the past there. Think I have that dude’s autograph floating around here somewhere. Priceless!

He had plenty of time to sign autographs.  He has to hold the NFL record for most consecutive games inactive while still on the main roster.  

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Brand J said:

I pointed out how the Lamar led Ravens demolished playoff contenders. You can take that win against the Browns away if it makes you happy. 

 

The point was that you know the ins and outs of the Bills games because you watched them. If you watch every NFL game you begin to see that even the blowouts, many of them are closer than the score appears. You don’t see them all, so you don’t see the flaws that the victor had in the game. But you intimately remember the Bills flaws in their TD+ victories, because you watched them all.

 

So Lamar certainly didn’t win because of his record against playoff teams (Allen had a better record).

 

And I don’t know how it could be about his margin of victory, because Allen had a 13 point MOV against playoff teams (even though you want to discredit some).

 

And it can’t be about TD’s - because Allen had more of those.

 

And they both won 6 of their last 7 games.

 

But Lamar did have the #1 seed. So there is that. 

 

Congratulations Lamar - you had less TD’s and a worse record against playoff teams … but you got the #1 seed, so here’s your MVP.

 

Hip hip hooray. 
 

Im going to bed.

[90sBills]

Lamar definitely has pedestrian stats for MVP this year certainly. I’m just surprised that so many of you are up in arms about Allen not getting it. He seems fine about it as he should. His goals are to get past KC and Cincy in the playoffs. Not some meaningless regular season award.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That Titans team didn't have a good offense. Read the formula one more time.

 

Which one. The original, or the one you changed to “pretty good” stats?

 

Actually nevermind. I’m going to bed. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

Lamar definitely has pedestrian stats for MVP this year certainly. I’m just surprised that so many of you are up in arms about Allen not getting it. He seems fine about it as he should. His goals are to get past KC and Cincy in the playoffs. Not some meaningless regular season award.

Bingo.

 

I'd feel much worse if Josh had played like Lamar did against the Chiefs but won an MVP.

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Which one. The original, or the one you changed to “pretty good” stats?

 

Actually nevermind. I’m going to bed. 

You can change it to pretty good. It doesn't really matter.

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

The point was that you know the ins and outs of the Bills games because you watched them. If you watch every NFL game you begin to see that even the blowouts, many of them are closer than the score appears. You don’t see them all, so you don’t see the flaws that the victor had in the game. But you intimately remember the Bills flaws in their TD+ victories, because you watched them all.

 

So Lamar certainly didn’t win because of his record against playoff teams (Allen had a better record).

 

And I don’t know how it could be about his margin of victory, because Allen had a 13 point MOV against playoff teams (even though you want to discredit some).

 

And it can’t be about TD’s - because Allen had more of those.

 

And they both won 6 of their last 7 games.

 

But Lamar did have the #1 seed. So there is that. 

 

Congratulations Lamar - you had less TD’s and a worse record against playoff teams … but you got the #1 seed, so here’s your MVP.

 

Hip hip hooray. 
 

Im going to bed.

So now we’re accounting for how and why a team blows out another? Seriously? 
 

I told you exactly why Lamar won the award and it had nothing to do with the color of his skin. Go back and reread my initial post. If you don’t want to accept that’s the reason, then you’ll just have to accept that 49/50 people voted for him.

The Bills were hardly that “it” team all year. If they were that dominate and not losing to the worst teams in the league on days where Allen struggled, Josh would be going home with an MVP award tonight. It’s that simple really. 

[julian]

18 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

he could throw less than 10 TO's and that will still be the narrative.  He won't because he doesn't have the receivers to run wide open like the other QBs do but hopefully that changes next year.

The INT numbers and the one seed seem to be the deciding factors for MVP voters these days, and yeah the media will latch onto another narrative but anything other than the turnover machine narrative probably doesn’t carry as much importance.

[Bookie Man]

just keeping add fuel to the fire

[buffblue]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Easy. Every player above him was unquestionably better than he was, s was Tyreek and Stroud.

How do you consistently manage to be one of the worst posters on this board? I don't know whether to mock or congratulate you. Your takes are guaranteed to be negative, biased, and laughably off base

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Lamar definitely has pedestrian stats for MVP this year certainly. I’m just surprised that so many of you are up in arms about Allen not getting it. He seems fine about it as he should. His goals are to get past KC and Cincy in the playoffs. Not some meaningless regular season award.

I’m not. Allen walks on water around here, he can do no wrong. If he doesn’t win the MVP it’s because the voters are dumb, certainly has nothing to do with how he struggled in games. Would he have won the award if the Bills defense closed out more games in which he struggled? Now that’s a more interesting topic for discussion, because with wins against the Eagles, Broncos, and Patriots, you’d be looking at a 15-2 team (given that all other close wins also held up). If the turnovers remained the same I think Lamar still would've got it because his team looked better against better competition.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, buffblue said:

How do you consistently manage to be one of the worst posters on this board? I don't know whether to mock or congratulate you. Your takes are guaranteed to be negative, biased, and laughably off base

 

Just put him on your ignore list. He once said "I don't care about TDs" as it relates to judging a QB's performance. No point in engaging with someone still learning the basics of the sport.

[90sBills]

17 minutes ago, Brand J said:

I’m not. Allen walks on water around here, he can do no wrong.

Couldn’t agree more with this point. 

[QCity]

Lamar has been -20000 on the books for the past month. Many sportsbooks even stopped taking MVP bets because he was such a huge runaway favorite. If you were watching this show and thought someone else had a shot to win it, you are living in a different reality.

[Brand J]

8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Couldn’t agree more with this point. 

It’s totally fine in terms of fandom, I understand it’s just backing our guy to the fullest, but it can get really annoying when trying to have logical discussions. Most of my downvotes and red X’s come when I don’t toe the company line, that “Josh Allen is the best QB in the NFL.”

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Herc11 said:

My bad, I thought I read QBR. Although, passer rating is also a made up calculated stat that has shown its weakness in the past. The whole reason ESPN tries to make something better by creating QBR.

Well at least QBR factors in athleticism and a qb's ability to run. All qb rating cares about is completion % and ints.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, julian said:

Lamar wasn’t even in the conversation in any serious way until he put up a 5 TD game late in the season that allowed any serious consideration to begin.

 

 Allen will not win it unless or until he has a single season INT season that prevents the talking heads from continuously bashing him over and over day after day week after week, you can’t believe the actual voters would listen to that all year and then cast a vote in his name.

 

FOUR straight 40+ TD seasons lol.. the numbers this dude is putting are are absolutely ridiculous… we’re very lucky to be Bills fans right now

He was in the top 3 or 4 from like Week 5 on. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

So Lamar is by far the weakest MVP winner we have had in 15-20 years IMO. And he gets 49 out of 50 first place votes. Is the NFL MVP turning into a joke like the Pro Bowl? Lamar winning isn't the issue. I agree that he should have been one of the five finalists. Winning with 49 out of 50 first place votes is the problem. Who are these voters and why don't more of them think for themselves? 

 

I'd totally get 49 out of 50 first place votes it if Lamar had a season for the ages. Statistically he had a worst season than Dak, Purdy and Allen while playing with a defense that finished 1st in the league in ppg allowed, sacks and takeaways. 

 

This should have been a close vote. Instead, we got Lamar by a landslide.

 

Kudos to the voter who not only didn't vote Lamar 1, but actually voted him 3rd. Anyone know who that was?

 

As for my question, if the MVP is becoming a joke. I think the answer is no. I think we had a unique year this year where neither QB that lead their team to the top record in their respective conference was your classic candidate with elite stats and pedigree. 95% of the time of the two teams that finish first in the conference you will have at least one QB that fits the criteria of elite stats and pedigree. 

 

Purdy's stats were elite but he can't break that game manager label yet. One more year and I think he breaks that label. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

He had one of the greatest seasons ever for a WR.

Josh had 1 elite performance (PIT) since the 1st of October (MIA) and was largely mediocre most of the year and at multiple occasions was the worst player on the field costing his team games (NYJ,DEN). MVPs don't do that. Injuries certainly played a role in Hill getting demoted, but his season paled in comparison to Tyreek  .Allen's one 1st place vote also votes Lamar 3rd and was clearly a troll vote.

It wasn’t a troll vote. It was from Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, and famously the guy who said anyone drafting Josh Allen basically has to pray he can defy the entire industry of mathematics. He published a lengthy article explaining his reasoning for the MVP ballot which was basically purely in the numbers.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, buffblue said:

How do you consistently manage to be one of the worst posters on this board? I don't know whether to mock or congratulate you. Your takes are guaranteed to be negative, biased, and laughably off base

Truth hurts sometimes.

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Just put him on your ignore list. He once said "I don't care about TDs" as it relates to judging a QB's performance. No point in engaging with someone still learning the basics of the sport.

You're still missing the point on that one I see. Impressive.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

QBR and passer rating are not the same thing.

 

Agree.

 

QBR historically has been a great predictor of NFL MVP's. Typical MVP winner leads the league in QBR. Or has a QBR in the 70's at minimum, but in most years, high 70's or low 80's. This year Lamar definitely broke the mold. Yes, passing, both in terms of total numbers and efficiency was down this year compared to your average year, but still Lamar will have the lowest QBR of any QB in recent memory to win the award outside of Cam Newton. Newton of course though, lead his Panthers team to a 15-1 record and lead the league in total TD's by a wide margin. And only Brady had more passing TD's than Newton that year, and it was 36 to Newton's 35. 

 

Even with the QBR numbers being down this year you still had three QB's with QBR's in the 70's (yes, I am round up here) in Purdy, Dak and Allen. All three lead their teams to the one or two seed in the conference. Neither were supported by a defense that finished 1st in PPG allowed, 1st in sacks and 1st in take-aways. Yet, of the three, only one thought one was worthy of a first place MVP vote. 

[DapperCam]

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but the way the entire media just got with the program and all started pumping up Lamar after the 49ers game was really strange. He was a top-5 candidate and jumped to unanimous #1 almost overnight and stayed planted there even with totally mediocre stats and probably the best defense in the NFL.

 

It wasn’t even a particularly impressive game, Lamar’s defense got like 5 interceptions and he did a good job managing the game and getting the W. Just a totally bizarre example of groupthink.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, billieve420 said:

Josh’s numbers at the end of the year probably had a lot to do with it. Numbers weren’t eye popping. I think if Josh had cut down on half of the turnovers and we didn’t have some of the losses we had to the bottom feeders. Josh would have easily taken award.

 

No QB had eye popping 50 TD's or 5,500 total yards this year. But if Allen's numbers were not eye popping this year than what in the heck were Lamar's? 

 

The saying used to be you had to lead your team to a top 2 seed. I guess we can throw that out. It's one seed or nothing now. 

 

Cut down on half the turnovers, and add two more wins, well yes, I think (hope actually because two more wins still has the Bills in the 2 seed) Allen would have won the MVP in a landslide. 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, DapperCam said:

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but the way the entire media just got with the program and all started pumping up Lamar after the 49ers game was really strange. He was a top-5 candidate and jumped to unanimous #1 almost overnight and stayed planted there even with totally mediocre stats and probably the best defense in the NFL.

 

It wasn’t even a particularly impressive game, Lamar’s defense got like 5 interceptions and he did a good job managing the game and getting the W. Just a totally bizarre example of groupthink.

There's a pretty reasonable explanation for that IMO. You had two legit candidates for MVP at the time and they played each other. Lamar shined and Purdy stunk.

[HappyDays]

25 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It wasn’t a troll vote. It was from Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, and famously the guy who said anyone drafting Josh Allen basically has to pray he can defy the entire industry of mathematics. He published a lengthy article explaining his reasoning for the MVP ballot which was basically purely in the numbers.

 

Here's the article for anyone who cares to read it:

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/114021/aaron-schatz-my-2023-all-pro-ballot

[GunnerBill]

I don't think Lamar was a very deserving MVP. I have said all along that in the absence of a QB walking away with it (and definitely none did this year) I'd have voted for non-QBs this time. Hill and CMC. 

 

But the Quarterback of the #1 seed is pretty par for the course in the way the voting for this award goes. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

There's a pretty reasonable explanation for that IMO. You had two legit candidates for MVP at the time and they played each other. Lamar shined and Purdy stunk.

 

Purdy stunk no doubt. I think the question is did Lamar shine? Or did his defense shine? Lamar shined the next week against the Dolphins with a perfect passer rating. Allen also shined against the Dolphins with a perfect passer rating, but that was in week 4 and long forgotten. 

 

If you told me after the Bills lost to the Eagles in OT and were 6-6 that they would win out, beat the Dolphins in primetime for the division title and 2 seed and that Allen would lead the league in total TD's by a wide margin I would have thought for sure he would win the MVP. He didn't have the greatest of games in the week 17 win against Miami but still, it felt like leading up to that game that even a 4 TD 0 turnover game would not have been enough to take it away from Lamar. 

 

I'll also add that when the Bills were 6-6, I want to say Lamar's QBR was really low by MVP standards. Pretty sure he was sub 60 at like 58 or 59 QBR. To Lamar's credit, he stepped up his game just enough in the final stretch of the season to get his QBR to a more respectable 65.

Edited February 9 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[julian]

38 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He was in the top 3 or 4 from like Week 5 on. 

lol no

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

In fact, Lamar’s stats may be the worst for an MVP winner in a decade or more.

 

Probably at least two decades. 

 

Peyton won an MVP in 2008 with less than 30 total TD's but he also lead the league in QBR that year. Lamar was under 30 total TD's this year and not even close to the top 3 in QBR. 65 QBR to Allen's 70. Dak and Purdy both at 73. 

 

Cam won in 2015 with a lower QBR, 61 to Lamar's 65. But the Panthers had a truly elite season at 15-1 and Cam thew the second most TD's passes in the league and had the most total TD's by a wide margin. 

 

I'd say both of the above seasons were better than Lamar's. And that doesn't even take into account the Ravens defense being #1 in three major statistical categories. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Purdy stunk no doubt. I think the question is did Lamar shine? Or did his defense shine? Lamar shined the next week against the Dolphins with a perfect passer rating. Allen also shined against the Dolphins with a perfect passer rating, but that was in week 4 and long forgotten. 

 

If you told me after the Bills lost to the Eagles in OT and were 6-6 that they would win out, beat the Dolphins in primetime for the division title and 2 seed and that Allen would lead the league in total TD's by a wide margin I would have thought for sure he would win the MVP. He didn't have the greatest of games in the week 17 win against Miami but still, it felt like leading up to that game that even a 4 TD 0 turnover game would not have been enough to take it away from Lamar. 

The Bills won, but he was pretty bad for almost all of that stretch outside of the PIT game. We had to win ugly against some really weak teams in the Chargers and Patriots. He was awful in the air vs Dallas, but that was easily forgiven because we completely steamrolled them on the ground. Despite us getting the win against KC, he didn't shine there either despite KC giving us every opportunity to run away with that game.

It's obvious that Allen outproduced Jackson, and the analytics make an interesting case that he had more overall value, but Jackson played well in all the big games down the stretch that sealed the #1 seed for his team, while Allen kinda limped through it. I also thought we had a much better offense than Baltimore, especially once Andrews went down. The entire offense in Baltimore has always run through Jackson.

I say all this thinking that no QB deserved to be top 2. If you had to pick a QB, it was definitely Lamar, followed by Dak, Purdy, Stroud and then Allen, but I had all of them behind CMC and Hill. As we know, that isn't the way the NFL works though.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

I say all this thinking that no QB deserved to be top 2. If you had to pick a QB, it was definitely Lamar, followed by Dak, Purdy, Stroud and then Allen, but I had all of them behind CMC and Hill. As we know, that isn't the way the NFL works though.

 

 

Agreed. Which is why this vote is a joke. 49-1 in favor of Jackson for first place votes??? For one of the worst statistical seasons, we've ever seen from an MVP winning QB who also happened to be supported by the best defense in the league? Completely insane. 

 

This year I don't think two QB's were asked to carry their teams more than Allen and Lamar week in and week out on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills defense was good. The Ravens defense was elite. So, I give Allen the edge in the "valuable to the team" concept of the award. 

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Agreed. Which is why this vote is a joke. 49-1 in favor of Jackson for first place votes??? For one of the worst statistical seasons, we've ever seen from an MVP winning QB who also happened to be supported by the best defense in the league? Completely insane. 

 

This year I don't think two QB's were asked to carry their teams more than Allen and Lamar week in and week out on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills defense was good. The Ravens defense was elite. So, I give Allen the edge in the "valuable to the team" concept of the award. 

Stroud absolutely was which is why despite the ups and downs he had throughout the year that I have him rated so highly. He took over a 3 win team and promptly won the division with them as a rookie. It was by far the most impressive true-rookie QB season I've ever seen and some of the stuff he was doing throughout the year was insane, not just from a physical standpoint but from a technique and X's and O's standpoint as well.

I was not high on him at all out of the draft, and I'm pretty convinced after watching him this year that he'll be locked in the top 3-4 for the foreseeable future.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Stroud absolutely was which is why despite the ups and downs he had throughout the year that I have him rated so highly. e.

 

Yeah, Stroud is a good one too. He deserves that mention in terms of value to their team. In terms of MVP though, now we are talking about a QB that had a QBR of 57. A full 13 points lower than Allen and 16 points lower than Purdy and Dak. That would be truly breaking the mold of QBR as a predictor of MVP's.