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2024 Off Season Blueprint


Big Blitz

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1. Make Babbich DC and Brady OC

 

2. Re sign Hyde - one last ride.  If you want to increase odds of a SB having him back IF HEALTHY is a must.  His play did not drop off much.  Plus, we’re going to be drafting his replacement early.  Have the rookie ready to start in 2025.  
 

3. Re sign Daquan, Dodson, Dane - these are guys of our UFAs I’d want back.  I’m sure you can maybe upgrade cheaper - that’s not my job in this OP.  This is a blueprint lol.  

 

4. Target rotational DTs and DEs in UFA.  I won’t bother with names bc many guys including the WRs we want will be franchised - Higgins, Pittman.  Again, blueprint.  
 

 

Draft priorities:

WR - Draft 2

Safety - Draft 2

DL/DE - tie. 

CB

OL

RB 

 

 

2024 Roster

 

Defense:

 

Safety - Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Rookie, Rookie

CB - Benford, Douglas, White, Jackson, Elam, Taron

LB - Milano, Bernard, Dorian, Dodson, Spector

DT - Oliver, Jones, Rookie, UFA

DE - Rousseau, Von, Rookie, UFA 

 

Offense:

 

QB - Allen, backup 

RB - Cook, Ty, Rookie, UFA 

WR - Rookie, Diggs, Shakir, UFA, Rookie, Shorter, Harty

TE - Kincaid, Knox 

OT - Dawkins, Brown

OG - Torrence, McGovern

C - Morse, Bates 

 

K - Bass

P - Martin

Edited by Big Blitz
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2 minutes ago, Chicharito said:

Unfortunately I do not see white coming back.


 

I agreed - until I heard Beane’s presser. 
 

Just my gut.  
 

Now if they need the money - yea he’s probably getting cut.  But money for who?  

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6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:


 

I agreed - until I heard Beane’s presser. 
 

Just my gut.  
 

Now if they need the money - yea he’s probably getting cut.  But money for who?  


They are $50mil in the hole … gotta cut a couple 

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I’m going to predict that both Morse and Bates don’t return…. they can no longer be paying Bates $4m a year to sit on the bench …

 

They could trade him for a 4th or 5th I think … he is a starter in this league …I wouldn’t even hate keeping him and seeing what he has at C and moving on from Morse …

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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:


 

I agreed - until I heard Beane’s presser. 
 

Just my gut.  
 

Now if they need the money - yea he’s probably getting cut.  But money for who?  

51 million in the hole and he wasn't 100% from the ACL when he ruptured the Achilles.  They need to release him. 

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My gut is Davis back.

My heart wishes von miller is suspended to be cut.

My brain says we flop the draft but get enough to win a playoff game in 2024.

My body says I ate too much pizza. 

Edited by boyst
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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m going to predict that both Morse and Bates don’t return…. they can no longer be paying Bates $4m a year to sit on the bench …

 

They could trade him for a 4th or 5th I think … he is a starter in this league …I wouldn’t even hate keeping him and seeing what he has at C and moving on from Morse …


All I’ve been reading every off season are predictions that Morse will be cut for the past 3 years but he hasn’t been.

 

Its not happening he’s one of the most important pieces to our OL and we would have a glaring hole at C

Edited by DJB
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2 minutes ago, DJB said:


All I’ve been reading every off season are predictions that Morse will be cut for the past 3 years but he hasn’t been.

 

Its not happening he’s one of the most important pieces to our OL and we would have a glaring hole at C


 

Agree and I feel this way about White to. 
 

Same Hyde. 
 

First with White, what if he is 80 percent Tre?  Isn’t that a CB 2 and an elite one?  I’ll just trust the Bills to make the right call here.  
 

But if we need the money, I’m fine cutting him.  I just don’t want to accept that he’s automatically done.   

 

As for Hyde, if he’s healthy and willing to come back, what is the guarantee we get better than him?  

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Without some major restructuring of contracts here is the BIlls' basic problem cap-wise.

 

The main offensive players under contract (14) (1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 2 TE, 7OL)- Allen, Cook, Diggs, Shakir, Shorter, Kincaid, Knox, Brown, Dawkins, Morse, Torrence, Bates, and Van Denmark, cost $141,184,141.

 

The main defensive players under contract (13) (3DE, 1DT, 4LB, 4CB, 1S) - Rousseau, Miller, Jonathan, Bernard, Milano, Spector, Williams, Johnson, Elam, Douglas, Benford, and Poyer, cost $87,937,695

 

Add 3 specialists Bass, Martin and Ferguson for $7,682,500 plus void dead cap of $11,635,084 and the Bills are at $248,439,420 in cap for 30 players.  This doesn't include 5 players under contract likely to be cut costing $33,139,404.  If cut, these 5 (White, Harty, Hines, Gilliam, and Neal), would save $20,027,901 off the $33+ million, but would bring the Bills cap total for 30 players plus dead cap to $261,550,923.

 

To put things in simple terms, the Bills are over the projected cap even with the 5 cuts approx $20 mill, and still need to add 24 players to the roster.  

 

So for those expecting big $ trades or FA signings, I think you are barking up the wrong tree.  The Bills are going to have to cut an additional $40 Million from the cap, besides the 5 cuts, to sign their draft picks and complete the roster with players making near-minimum contracts.  What a mess.  

 

I'm not saying Beane can't get it done. Obviously, he has to, but I'm no longer even expecting any like a McGovern level signing.

 

Looking at our FAs who people want back, here is what they made last season: Jones (8,563,333), Floyd (2,628,750), Dodson (2,010,000), Jackson (2,010,000), Epenesa (1,870,000), Rapp (1,770,000), Edwards (1,770,000), Ty Johnson (1,080,000) and Morris ($870,000).  We can't afford Jones, and Floyd and Epenesa won't come back anywhere close to their numbers.  Rapp and Edwards will also likely command bigger $. 

 

It's going to be a long hard, but interesting off-season to see what rabbits Beane can pull out of his hat to complete this roster.   

 

 

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44 minutes ago, DJB said:


All I’ve been reading every off season are predictions that Morse will be cut for the past 3 years but he hasn’t been.

 

Its not happening he’s one of the most important pieces to our OL and we would have a glaring hole at C


It’s going to happen one year and 2024 is more likely then the previous years

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18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


It’s going to happen one year and 2024 is more likely then the previous years

It depends on whether Morse wants to return and whether management feels that Bates can fill the role for less.  

 

I suspect the solution here is Morse extends another year enabling the Bills to structure the contract to cut his cap hit by $3 mill or more in 2024.  

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3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

It depends on whether Morse wants to return and whether management feels that Bates can fill the role for less.  

 

I suspect the solution here is Morse extends another year enabling the Bills to structure the contract to cut his cap hit by $3 mill or more in 2024.  


It’s possible he extends ..but I don’t see it …

 

Makes you wonder why they kept Bates at $4m a year matching the Bears offer if they never thought he couldn’t  take over from Morse one day,,,

 

Like I said though … they aren’t keeping both in 2024 

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2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m going to predict that both Morse and Bates don’t return…. they can no longer be paying Bates $4m a year to sit on the bench …

 

They could trade him for a 4th or 5th I think … he is a starter in this league …I wouldn’t even hate keeping him and seeing what he has at C and moving on from Morse …

 

But if Morse is cut, which could happen based on the cap savings, then the Bills would benefit from keeping Bates as an affordable and known replacement. He'd become a cheap starter.

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45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

Add 3 specialists Bass, Martin and Ferguson for $7,682,500 plus void dead cap of $11,635,084 and the Bills are at $248,439,420 in cap for 30 players.  This doesn't include 5 players under contract likely to be cut costing $33,139,404.  If cut, these 5 (White, Harty, Hines, Gilliam, and Neal), would save $20,027,901 off the $33+ million, but would bring the Bills cap total for 30 players plus dead cap to $261,550,923.

 

To put things in simple terms, the Bills are over the projected cap even with the 5 cuts approx $20 mill, and still need to add 24 players to the roster.  

 

 

Can you share who has determined "these 5 players under contract likely to be cut?" There are definitely others who could also fit the "Bill" this offseason, so I'm just wondering where this certainty comes from. 

 

Also, I do agree with 4 of your "likely" cuts. I don't immediately agree with Gilliam, however. Not that his presence on the roster is vital, but he is a versatile offensive depth dude who has teams value as well. That being said, I suppose tough times with the cap should start with replacing this exact type of player with younger, cheaper players. Gotta find smart rookie UFAs who can fill these fringe roles. 

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4 hours ago, Chicharito said:

Unfortunately I do not see white coming back.

I for hope there is a way for White to be a part of the team. Traing camp should speak volumes about whether he can come back or will be finished. His contract is a problem however.

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18 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Can you share who has determined "these 5 players under contract likely to be cut?" There are definitely others who could also fit the "Bill" this offseason, so I'm just wondering where this certainty comes from. 

 

Also, I do agree with 4 of your "likely" cuts. I don't immediately agree with Gilliam, however. Not that his presence on the roster is vital, but he is a versatile offensive depth dude who has teams value as well. That being said, I suppose tough times with the cap should start with replacing this exact type of player with younger, cheaper players. Gotta find smart rookie UFAs who can fill these fringe roles. 

These are the highest-paid players on the roster who really don't have a place on the roster going forward.  White is injured and has been replaced by Douglas.  Hines and Harty are overpaid kick returners, who can and should be replaced by an incoming draft pick or cheap FA.  Neal and Gilliam are almost completely special teams players. Brady diminished Gilliam's role on the offense to only 17 snaps in the last 5 weeks of the season.  Neal received 48 D snaps the entire year, including only 11 snaps in the last 8 games.  The Bills can no longer afford to keep guys who are primarily special teamers.  They need depth players they trust to play on offense and defense as well as special teams given our cap problems. By the way, the Bills have Hamlin still under contract for $1,095,119 next season (about 2.3 million less than Neal is scheduled to make).  He can easily fill Neal's role, but he may be let go as well.  Hamlin's dead cap if released in only 40K.

 

As to who replaces Gilliiam's very limited role on the offense? Someone like Quentin Morris (if re-signed) and in goal-line situations we could use an extra OL or DL.  A draft pick or UDFA could also earn the spot.   The Bills have TE's TreMcKitty and Zach Davidson under cheap contracts if they need an extra big body or two. 

 

FYI: Spotrac projects these $ figures for some of our key FAs: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/

Floyd ($8.1), Jones ($6.8), Epenesa ($5.6), Rapp ($5.5), Dodson ($4.9), Dane Jackson ($3.1) 

Edited by GASabresIUFan
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4 hours ago, DJB said:


All I’ve been reading every off season are predictions that Morse will be cut for the past 3 years but he hasn’t been.

 

Its not happening he’s one of the most important pieces to our OL and we would have a glaring hole at C

If Morse stays, he will have to take a pay cut.

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I think Alec Anderson may be a candidate at C going forward. I surmise that is one of the reasons he was on the 53-man roster all season.

Beane is going to have to hit on the draft. Last year looks good. This one may have to be better.

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13 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’m going to predict that both Morse and Bates don’t return…. they can no longer be paying Bates $4m a year to sit on the bench …

 

They could trade him for a 4th or 5th I think … he is a starter in this league …I wouldn’t even hate keeping him and seeing what he has at C and moving on from Morse …

bates will start at center, and Morse is gone.  Problem solved.

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11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

But if Morse is cut, which could happen based on the cap savings, then the Bills would benefit from keeping Bates as an affordable and known replacement. He'd become a cheap starter.

Yeah makes zero sense to both lose Morse and his probable replacement, there's one other guy on the roster he's competing with but that just means there's already going to be a backup in position when the battle is decided.

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Don’t see Hyde coming back unfortunately. Think he’ll hang it up this season when he’s not resigned. If Rapp isn’t brought back then you 100% have to sign a safety from FA. Cannot rely on two rookies to play opposite Poyer and back up the spots also. 
 

FA for offense is a bit underwhelming this year in terms of what we need to add. Have to go offense minded in the draft and defense in FA as that pool of players is actually very decent. 
 

3 positions need to be addressed: DLine, Safety, WR. 


Would like an attempt to be made for some of these players if the finances can be worked out:

 

DTs:  Tart (Houston), Kinlaw (SF), Reader (Cinci’)

 

DEs: Floyd, Burns (Carolina), Clowney (Baltimore), Lawson (NYJ)


Safety: Savage (GB), Gardner Johnson (Detroit), Whitehead (NYJ), McKinney (NYG), Dugger (NE), Kearse (Dallas)

 

 

Safety FA is absolutely loaded with talent we can get 4-5 years from. Personally would love Savage, McKinney or Whitehead. Absolutely have to acquire some experienced help in the top of the backfield. 
 


 

 

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