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The Three Plays that Cost us the Game


VaMilBill

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12 hours ago, Freak-O said:

Cook dropped a TD as well. Crucial. The non pass to Diggs at the end was the worst one. Get a new set of downs, milk the clock and an excellent opportunity to score. I don’t get why Josh went for a TD there. Too much time left on the clock. :(

I'm certain it was McDermott who decided to run to the preferred hash mark on first down and likely told Josh to basically throw it away if nothing was there immediately to preserve the field goal try. Coaching not to lose gets in the players' heads.

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11 hours ago, BananaB said:

It’s definitely a possibility. Shakir catches just about everything 

 

I will have to see greater detail on the All-22, but the crossing route to Diggs also may not have been as open as it first appeared. There was a corner lurking right behind Diggs, possibly bating Josh into that throw. Remember, just a few minutes before there was a near-pick 6 jump route on an attempted pass to Diggs.

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17 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Can't blame for Josh on that play.

 

That's an easy TD pass if he doesn't get hit

But you can blame him for not taking the easy pass to Diggs which would’ve chewed up clock or a KC TO.  Even if we scored on the pass to shakir, KC would’ve had plenty of time to score 

Edited by NewEra
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Couple of drops, couple of miss reads / decisions , Bass is washed, one legged punter, MASH unit D.  It was amazing that it was 3 pt tight game.

 

Unfortunately a couple things go wrong or you fail to execute you’re basically F’ed in a game like this, we had very little margin for error given the defense.

 

 

 

Edited by PayDaBill$
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12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

If Allen isn't hit, it's a clear TD to Shakir.  None of this **** Show is on Allen.

 

I agree and disagree.

 

Allen clearly saw that Shakir would clear the defenders and be open pre-snap.  He locked in on the killshot.

 

.....except it wasn't a killshot.  Even if Dawkins doesn't get dog-walked by Jones to hit Allen, Mahomes gets the ball back, down 4, with a couple minutes and two timeouts against our joke of a defense. 

 

As much as I know it's difficult to blame Josh for making a bad decision on what would normally be the right read in any other cirucmstance... this wasn't that circumstance.

 

If he foregoes the TD shot and hits Diggs for a first down, like was the entire vibe of that drive... kill the clock and score with little to no time left, we'd be set up to potentially score with KC getting the ball back with under a minute and no timeouts, down 4 needing a TD.  If we played it perfectly, we could've gone up with less than 15 seconds.  

 

It's really hard to criticize him for this decision, but given the gameflow.. I hate to say.. I think it's warranted.

 

It wasn't a bad decision.  It just wasn't the right decision. 

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12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

If Allen isn't hit, it's a clear TD to Shakir.  None of this **** Show is on Allen.

Way too many people are taking Tony Romo's off-the-cuff analysis as the undisputed truth.  The decision to go to Shakir was fine.  He was available, and we've seen Allen make that throw too many times to count.  Unfortunately he got hit and it didn't work out.

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12 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Taking multiple deep shots and bypassing chain moving completions is on Josh 

 

I think we're OK taking a 4 point lead with just under 2 minutes. The bar is a lot higher for KC to get the TD, and it's really risking it to try to score that TD as time expires. So you may end up with a chance to get that FG to tie after all.

 

Maybe your Pro Bowl LT needed to figure that s*** out.

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19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But you can blame him for not taking the easy 1st down to Diggs which would’ve chewed up the clock and given us a 1st down.  Even if we scored on the pass to shakir, KC would’ve had plenty of time to score 

Passing up the wide open Shakir for Diggs on a 2-yard drag route on 2nd and 9 would've been moronic. The mirror image of that route was almost intercepted earlier. This time, Diggs had two defenders squared up on him. 23 was shadowing him the entire route and 32 passes off Kincaid to 22 to pick up Diggs as he goes to the flat. At the time of the pass they're both tracking Diggs. We've seen how Diggs runs with the ball. There is no way Diggs is making it for a first down, if he even catches the ball.

 

Add in that Shakir is catching everything lately and Diggs is most certainly not and it was an easy decision. This is football, quarterbacks can't control every variable, good decisions don't always work out. The images below show the moment of the throw (left) and a moment later (right). The anticipation Allen showed on that throw was incredible. Chris Jones just beat Dion Dawkins.

 

Screenshot2024-01-22111916.thumb.jpg.244f48d8457c9ef510a66820f4c31b61.jpgScreenshot2024-01-22112353.thumb.jpg.f35379a7dddaeb5ebbdb195772824845.jpg

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27 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But you can blame him for not taking the easy 1st down to Diggs which would’ve chewed up the clock and given us a 1st down.  Even if we scored on the pass to shakir, KC would’ve had plenty of time to score 

Ya but there is no guarantee we get a TD if we just got a first down there. Or bass to make the kick if we don't get a TD.. (clearly lol)

 

Wide open TD pass, I think you have to take it

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6 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Diggs was open but so was Shakir.  Allen made the right choice by throwing to either one of them.

I disagree with this, throwing to Shakir isn't the high percentage game winner, it in fact gives the ball back to the chiefs with 1:50 left in the game who most likely get the ball last, what a stupid decision to throw there.  the higher percentage play is diggs.  so if we're blaming somebody for the loss it's whoever decided to throw to Shakir and I'm not saying that was Josh, we have no idea who said what to do but that is major sus given the previous 6 games and 58 minutes, makes zero sense in that context... then to double down and throw it into the crumb rubber on 3rd downs is indefensible but we will never know who said to do what and why.

 

also, diggs didn't need to get the 1st down, it was 2nd down so the entire philosophy that throwing to diggs for the 1st down is dumb cause he doesn't get that completely misses the point of using all 3 downs to try and get a 1st down and at worse get 9yds closer for the fg.

 

the argument to throw to shakir is dumb founding

Edited by BillsfaninCT
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21 minutes ago, BillsfaninCT said:

I disagree with this, throwing to Shakir isn't the high percentage game winner, it in fact gives the ball back to the chiefs with 1:50 left in the game who most likely get the ball last, what a stupid decision to throw there.  the higher percentage play is diggs.  so if we're blaming somebody for the loss it's whoever decided to throw to Shakir and I'm not saying that was Josh, we have no idea who said what to do but that is major sus given the previous 6 games and 58 minutes, makes zero sense in that context... then to double down and throw it into the crumb rubber on 3rd downs is indefensible but we will never know who said to do what and why.

 

also, diggs didn't need to get the 1st down, it was 2nd down so the entire philosophy that throwing to diggs for the 1st down is dumb cause he doesn't get that completely misses the point of using all 3 downs to try and get a 1st down and at worse get 9yds closer for the fg.

 

the argument to throw to shakir is dumb founding

 

Skakir was open.  If the ball was accurate, it would have been a TD but Allen got pressured.  

You don't always have to go to the higher percentage when another player was open.

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1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Skakir was open.  If the ball was accurate, it would have been a TD but Allen got pressured.  

You don't always have to go to the higher percentage when another player was open.

 

Agreed,  and if you pass up a fairly high percentage chance at the TD and a 4 point lead,  there are no guarantees that you will get another opportunity.   You don't have the luxury of passing that up late in a game playing from behind. 

 

I have zero issue with Allen's decision.  

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Crazy not a single Defensive play was mentioned by OP.

 

Such as the absolutely BLOWN coverage on Kelce's TD where Poyer for some reason decided to jump the underneath route and let Kelce run right by him since the Chiefs never throw to Kelce anyways.

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18 hours ago, DrBob806 said:

We all wanted KC at home. Yikes, KC simply has the Bills' number, it's a shame. 

 

I don't know if you guys watched the post game- Boomer Esiason spewed out some insane stats. KC only ran 47 plays the whole game, 4 were kneel downs, and they scored 27 points. Crazy.

 

yeah watching the KC O against us was like watching a SB champ doing it's tuneup run in the 1st Q of a preseason game

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17 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

Agree on Shakir. Kinda reminding me of victor Cruz in his prime but better. 
 

It sucks Diggs has such a big dead cap hit next year because i think at this point he is done. I would love to cut him or trade him but obviously the financial ramifications don’t allow for it.  His hands just aren’t trustworthy and he isn’t elite anymore. He’s a middling number 1 WR. 

What do we think happened? Why such a drastic drop-off in the middle of a season?

5 hours ago, Wraith said:

Passing up the wide open Shakir for Diggs on a 2-yard drag route on 2nd and 9 would've been moronic. The mirror image of that route was almost intercepted earlier. This time, Diggs had two defenders squared up on him. 23 was shadowing him the entire route and 32 passes off Kincaid to 22 to pick up Diggs as he goes to the flat. At the time of the pass they're both tracking Diggs. We've seen how Diggs runs with the ball. There is no way Diggs is making it for a first down, if he even catches the ball.

 

Add in that Shakir is catching everything lately and Diggs is most certainly not and it was an easy decision. This is football, quarterbacks can't control every variable, good decisions don't always work out. The images below show the moment of the throw (left) and a moment later (right). The anticipation Allen showed on that throw was incredible. Chris Jones just beat Dion Dawkins.

 

Screenshot2024-01-22111916.thumb.jpg.244f48d8457c9ef510a66820f4c31b61.jpgScreenshot2024-01-22112353.thumb.jpg.f35379a7dddaeb5ebbdb195772824845.jpg

I disagree. I think if he dumps its off to Diggs he is getting a 1st down, at worst, he is at least getting 5 or 6 yards and making it a manageable 3rd down. That changes the play call on 3rd down and allows us to maybe go for it on fourth down. 

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18 hours ago, Freak-O said:

Cook dropped a TD as well. Crucial. The non pass to Diggs at the end was the worst one. Get a new set of downs, milk the clock and an excellent opportunity to score. I don’t get why Josh went for a TD there. Too much time left on the clock. :(

We scored that drive. 

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