Richard Noggin Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Really gotta start with the division. Bills are a game-and-a-half back, but I think the Dolphins lose twice before our week 18 showdown (and the Bills lose maybe once). That means the final game decides the AFCE. I don't know what tiebreakers will do to the loser of that game. So the focus is on winning out (or losing only once more, more likely...just not to the Dolphins) and being a top-4 AFC division winner. Winning out obviously puts the Bills in great position to enter the postseason tournament as a top-3 or 4 seed. Losing only one (this week being that one loss) still trends towards a playoff berth. Losing twice probably shuts that door completely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Big Turk said: A loss to only the Cowboys and they likely win the division with the Dolphins having to play the Cowboys and Ravens still and that would also mean a loss to us...Dolphins have faded hard in December every year, and have gotten smashed every time they played a good team this year, so to me it's almost a foregone conclusion they are losing both those games. If they are playing the Bills for the division in Week 18, who in their right mind would take Mami in that game based on their track record over, oh, say the last 2 decades. I think this is where our best opportunity lies...Dolphins are likely to lose 1 or 2 of their next 3. If the Bills can win the week 18 matchup, and lose at most one fewer game over the next 3 (meaning 0 or 1 loss, most likely), then they win the division. That means hosting a Wild Card round game against the Dolphins again, probably (or the Browns, Bengals, or Colts). All comes down to the division, IF they take care of late-season business. Best case scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 13 hours ago, Success said: If we run the table, we're in. I think even 10-7 is 50/50. People are overestimating the teams ahead of us & tied w/ us. Just about. There’s still a very unlikely scenario we win out, and don’t get in. Although if Browns lose today, winning out would get us in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Scott7975 said: and there are equally as many scenarios that we don't. Those aren't good odds. When you have to rely on say specific 4 games going exactly your way in any given scenario... that's not good odds. I'm not talking division winning. I actually think we win the division but trying to get in as a WC this year is about the same thing as hoping Dalton hits that miracle TD. It's better than that. For instance, lets say we lose to the Cowboys and win our final three to finish 10-7. Even if Miami wins the division by winning two of their next three before losing to us we'd still have a 77% chance of making the playoffs as a WC team according to that NYT simulator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: It's better than that. For instance, lets say we lose to the Cowboys and win our final three to finish 10-7. Even if Miami wins the division by winning two of their next three before losing to us we'd still have a 77% chance of making the playoffs as a WC team according to that NYT simulator. I don't put any stock in those type of odds. Especially when I can use the machine and check for myself. One thing I will say is that if I had to pick one AFC team to lose this week outside of Miami, the Bronco's or Bengals would have been a toss up. At least one of them lost. We got that going for us at least. Edited December 17, 2023 by Scott7975 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I’m more serious and real excited if we beat the cowboys tonight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Right now: 51% Win today: 71% Lose today: 33% Lose today but then win last three: 85% Win next three but lose in Miami: 66% Win out: 100% and 85% chance division winner, possibly #2 or #3 seed 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Basically if the Bills finish the season 4-0 in. If they go 3-1 i think they will sneak in somehow. If they go 2-2 or worse they don’t deserve a playoff berth so don’t sweat it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, Drew21PA said: I’m more serious and real excited if we beat the cowboys tonight We beat the Cowboys, everyone is on notice that we’re a contender. Our boys better be ready to step up tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donuts and Doritos Posted December 17, 2023 Author Share Posted December 17, 2023 Bills to the 9 seed. Bills win & Houston loss will move Bills to the 8 seed. Miami loss will put the Bills 1 game back in the East. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 As it sits today before the Sunday games are played my feeling is the clearest path is through the division. Win out and I think it's ours. Even a loss today and I think we win it. I just don't see Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore, and they may have problems winning today against the Jets. As much as I dislike Tyreek Hill, him being gimpy really increased our odds. On the surface, it seems the annual late season Miami Meltdown is in full swing. The Wild Card, while possible is a pure crap shoot at this point both the amount we lost to AFC teams and the fact that Cincinnati and Denver are still in it and hold those head to head tie breakers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said: As it sits today before the Sunday games are played my feeling is the clearest path is through the division. Win out and I think it's ours. Even a loss today and I think we win it. I just don't see Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore, and they may have problems winning today against the Jets. As much as I dislike Tyreek Hill, him being gimpy really increased our odds. On the surface, it seems the annual late season Miami Meltdown is in full swing. The Wild Card, while possible is a pure crap shoot at this point both the amount we lost to AFC teams and the fact that Cincinnati and Denver are still in it and hold those head to head tie breakers. I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, DCofNC said: I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening. They have the Steelers, Chiefs and Browns left. I can't see them losing to Pittsburgh. I can't see them beating Kansas City. And Cleveland I think could go either way. Of course the wacky way this season has gone they could go 0-3 or 3-0 these last 3 weeks. 1-2 over the last 3 seems most plausible to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, DCofNC said: I believe Cincy will fall off, WRs bailed them out on 2 should be picks today, that won’t keep happening. They should at least lose to KC. It’d be nice if Pit could knock them off next week too, although that team is looking like a dumpster fire right now. Maybe they’ll get Pickett back and he’ll make a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Playoffs? Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I’m thinking we have to win out. The wildcard seems like a long shot based on tiebreakers against us. And although unpopular opinion, something tells me the dolphins will beat the jets, and one of the cowboys/ravens games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearNorth Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I think the key is Miami faltering between injuries and their past history in December. Their injury list as of this morning is formidable to say the least. Fish OL is as banged up as any in the league, which could limit the quick passing game. They have a difficult schedule, always have trouble with the Jets, Play two heavyweights in Dallas and at Baltimore, then our Bills in Week 18. Winning out would be helpful for our guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stads Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I just went to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Even if we lose to Dallas, we have an 85% chance to make the playoffs with winning the last 3. Today is obviously important for the division but not necessarily the playoffs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Stads said: I just went to the New York Times' playoff simulator. Even if we lose to Dallas, we have an 85% chance to make the playoffs with winning the last 3. Today is obviously important for the division but not necessarily the playoffs Yeah I agree. These other clown teams with their backup qbs will start losing. I think the Texans fall today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, BearNorth said: I think the key is Miami faltering between injuries and their past history in December. Their injury list as of this morning is formidable to say the least. Fish OL is as banged up as any in the league, which could limit the quick passing game. They have a difficult schedule, always have trouble with the Jets, Play two heavyweights in Dallas and at Baltimore, then our Bills in Week 18. Winning out would be helpful for our guys. Couldn't happen to a nicer group of guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrb1979 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 57 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: Yeah I agree. These other clown teams with their backup qbs will start losing. I think the Texans fall today. I see Denver and Cleveland both finishing 10-7 due to their schedules left. 1 spot for Bills, Texans and Indy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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