Road to the Playoffs

[BigDingus]

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

There are also a lot of scenarios that they don't.  I play with the machine a lot too.  Like I said earlier... it's a coinflip.  That to me is not a good chance.  Thats a pray Dalton makes an unlikely game winning TD on 4th down type chance IMO.  Basically hoping for teams like the Bears beating the Browns and Minesota beating Cinci.  Can happen but it would be an upset IMO, even with backup QBs. Getting in at 9 wins is definitely not going to happen.

 

I totally agree. However, I didn't do anything silly like having the Bears beat the Browns or Bengals losing to the Vikings, unless out of curiosity (like my scenario 2 with the Browns going 0-4).

 

The scenarios I mentioned weren't relying on that stuff, hence why I said I was trying to check worst case scenarios. Wouldn't be very useful if I was relying on almost impossible upsets. 

 

Scenario 3 is very realistic though. Again, I tried to give each team as many wins as possible, then only messed with the weekly matchups of those teams against relevant opponents. Giving the Bengals, Texans, Colts, Broncos etc. 3 x more wins AND giving the Dolphins the division isn't me relying on upsets. It's handicapping us.

[steven50]

I still Believe (which was the whole reason I started this post) the division is very doable. The dolphins have to play Ravens Jets Cowboys and us.

Tyrek is hurt, their offensive line is a shambles and they are now playing teams with a winning record. 

 

The Ravens are looking like the cream of the AFC crop, Dallas is looking like world beaters and Buffalo is finally finding its offense. If the jets win tomorrow (big if, I no) Miami might have won their last game this season already.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by steven50

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Scenario 3 is very realistic though.

 

mind giving me your game by game for each week?  Honestly, I think we still win the division even losing to the Cowboys but I'm looking for the WC alternatives in case we don't.

 

My thing with this is if "A" happens week one then the other weeks specific stuff needs to keep happening.  Otherwise it just changes which teams beat us out for the spot.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

In case anyone wants an easy snapshot of upcoming games for the playoff race.

 

[BigDingus]

41 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

mind giving me your game by game for each week?  Honestly, I think we still win the division even losing to the Cowboys but I'm looking for the WC alternatives in case we don't.

 

My thing with this is if "A" happens week one then the other weeks specific stuff needs to keep happening.  Otherwise it just changes which teams beat us out for the spot.

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

Edited December 16, 2023 by BigDingus

[Scott7975]

43 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

[BigDingus]

49 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

 

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. 

 

The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. 

 

Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place. 

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

But I'm saying in the scenario I referenced, i handicapped the Bills a lot. 

 

The point was that within that setup, many things are way more likely to go BETTER than that. That's a bad outcome, where very few things go right for us. If any of those teams lose more than once, it's even easier than my scenario. 

 

Some of those games don't even require a specific winner and get easier week to week. I was planning for bad outcomes that still allow us to sneak in, not perfect scenarios where everything falls into place. 

 

I don't agree with you.  There are a lot of scenarios that the Bills don't get in via WC that are very reasonable outcomes of games.  We shall see in the coming weeks.  Hopefully we just win the division and it doesn't matter.  That is our best path and I think a likely one.

[Drew21PA]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right, that's all reasonable. My thing is that in that scenario, there are 4 different games that if any of them go the other way the Bills would be out.  Any of the 4 games going the other way is also reasonable. So, while you have shown 1 way the Bills can get in, I can show you 4 different ways that put the Bills out based off of that.  To me, that's not good odds.

So you’re sayin there’s a chance….

 

…..yesssss

[Drew21PA]

4 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings

-Colts def. vs Steelers (though Steelers could win & we still get 7th seed in this scenario)

-Lions def. Broncos

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Week 16:

 

-Bills def. Chargers

-Bengals def. Steelers (again, the Steelers could win & this still works)

-Browns def. Texans

-Colts def. Falcons

-Dolphins def. Cowboys 

-Broncos def. Patriots

Note: Made sure to give the Dolphins the win to ensure they win the East either way. Texans could definitely beat the Browns, but it's a toss up

 

Week 17:

 

-Bills def. Patriots

-Browns def. Jets

-Colts def. Raiders (though Raiders could win & it still works)

-Seahawks def. Steelers

-Texans def. Titans

-Chiefs def. Bengals

-Broncos def. Chargers

Note: All of these seem pretty likely, barring an upset

 

Week 18:

 

-Bills def. Dolphins (we still lose division)

-Ravens def. Steelers

-Browns def. Bengals

-Colts def. Texans

-Broncos def. Raiders

 

Final Note: If Texans win at this point, they get in over us. Same if the Bengals beat the Browns. However, if either team lost a previous game I predicted them to win, we'd still be in. 

 

Relevant Records/Playoff Seeds:

 

1. Ravens (13-4)

2. Chiefs (12-5)

3. Jaguars (11-6)

4. Dolphins (11-6)

5. Browns (12-5) <<<< See Note

6. Denver (10-7)

7. Bills (10-7)

*****************

8. Colts (10-7)

9. Bengals (9-8)

10. Texans (9-8)

11. Steelers (8-9)

 

Note: Browns at 12-5 isn't what's relevant. The only thing that kicks the Bills out in this scenario is if 3 x AFC North teams finish at 10-7 or better. Hell, they can all have winning records, but as long as there's only 2 with 10-7+ records, Bills still make it here.

 

Here's a link (sorry it's huge): 

 

 https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/401547600~2~401547604~1~401547607~2~401547606~1~401547594~1~401547595~2~401547598~2~401547599~2~401547605~1~401547603~2~401547608~2~401547596~2~401547597~1~401547602~2~401547601~2~401547611~2~401547626~1~401547639~1~401547647~2~401547610~2~401547609~1~401547612~2~401547613~2~401547614~2~401547616~2~401547617~2~401547622~1~401547241~1~401547351~1~401547621~1~401547620~1~401547619~1~401547618~2~401547615~2~401547623~1~401547624~1~401547625~1~401547627~2~401547628~1~401547629~1~401547631~1~401547630~1~401547637~1~401547235~1~401547636~1~401547632~2~401547633~1~401547634~1~401547635~2~401547638~2~401547646~2~401547641~2~401547648~2~401547640~2~401547642~1~401547650~2~401547651~1~401547643~1~401547644~1~401547652~2~401547645~2~401547653~2

Good take here man I like it.  See what you’re getting at

 

scott and I have been talking he just isn’t optimistic - wants them in but stay guy in him says naw.  
 

I get it - hard to pull for any sort of luck this year with this team 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Good take here man I like it.  See what you’re getting at

 

scott and I have been talking he just isn’t optimistic - wants them in but stay guy in him says naw.  
 

I get it - hard to pull for any sort of luck this year with this team 

 

I am optimistic... I think we win the division.  I'm just not optimistic about a WC if we don't.  That could change in a week or two.

[Drew21PA]

You the man Scott _ love the work you bring here dude it’s all good 

[<bills4life>]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

I've just been focusing on less perfect scenarios, looking at ways beyond going on a 5 win streak to close the season. Some other scenarios include:

 

Scenario 1 - Bills lose to the Cowboys and Dolphins. There's still a lot of ways the Bills could make the playoffs, mainly because a lot of the 7-6 teams play each other. 

 

Scenario 2 - Bills beat the Cowboys, but inexplicably lose a game to the Chargers OR Patriots, as well as the Dolphins. Pretty similar to Scenario 1, though a Browns collapse gave me way more results with the Bills making it in. 

 

Scenario 3 (BEST) - Bills lose to the Cowboys, but go on to win their next 3 games. Aside from winning out, this is the option that offers the most flexibility (shocker, 3 wins is better than 2 wins). After messing with the playoff simulator for what feels like millions of hours, you get a ton of ways the Bills make it in. 

 

You could have all 4 NFC North teams finish above .500, Dolphins still take the AFC East, plus both the Jags & Texans getting in, and the Bills at 10-7 would still make it in under most scenarios. As long as the Broncos *OR* Texans lose 2 x games, 10 wins is VERY LIKELY to get the Bills in.

 

If not, teams like the Colts, Texans, Broncos and the Browns *OR* Bengals *OR* Steelers all finish 10-7, the Bills get in. We just couldn't have 3 x teams in the AFC North at 10-7 or better (in this scenario). Thankfully, a lot of these 7-6 teams play each other to close the year. 

 

Week 15: Steelers at Colts 

Week 16: Bengals at Steelers / Browns at Texans

Week 17: Bengals at Chiefs (even if the Bills finish 9-8, a Chiefs win here with the rest of the matchups could still get us in with the first 2 scenarios)

Week 18: Browns at Bengals / Texans at Colts

 

Note: One game to really watch is week 18 Steelers at Ravens. If the Ravens & Chiefs both keep winning, Baltimore may be resting starters here, which could really hurt us.

 

 

 

Absolutely not.  9-8 is not getting you into the playoffs let alone, “still a lot of ways”. In this scenario the bills would have a 3 percent chance.

[SoCal Deek]

I have no interest in backing into the playoffs. I’m looking at our playoff schedule starting a week ahead of the rest of the league. The Week 18 Miami game in all likelihood will be a play-in game for the Bills….which I think is great! 

[DapperCam]

All these games that are “unlikely” to be losses are not set in stone at all. The Jags have lost 2 weeks in a row. The Texans got obliterated by the Jets, and the Dolphins lost to the Titans. The Steelers have lost 2 in a row to 2 win teams.

 

If anything, the teams tied/ahead of us for the wild card kind of stink and have been playing above their heads this season. No loss is “unlikely” for a team playing their 2nd or 3rd string QB. Which is coincidentally every wild card team we are competing with except Denver.

[Drew21PA]

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I have no interest in backing into the playoffs. I’m looking at our playoff schedule starting a week ahead of the rest of the league. The Week 18 Miami game in all likelihood will be a play-in game for the Bills….which I think is great! 

Whhh get there and the season starts over

 

Doesn’t  matter how you do it

Just now, DapperCam said:

All these games that are “unlikely” to be losses are not set in stone at all. The Jags have lost 2 weeks in a row. The Texans got obliterated by the Jets, and the Dolphins lost to the Titans. The Steelers have lost 2 in a row to 2 win teams.

 

If anything, the teams tied/ahead of us for the wild card kind of stink and have been playing above their heads this season. No loss is “unlikely” for a team playing their 2nd or 3rd string QB. Which is coincidentally every wild card team we are competing with except Denver.

REALLY HARD to judge those teams 

 

same can be said about buffalo

 

rhe media is funny right now - they WANT TO BUY IN!  
 

but can’t becuase it’s been such a rollercoaster this year 

 

even if we beat the cowboys they will still be reluctant becuase we have lost some stupid games 

[BigDingus]

Just

20 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Whew, there's so many. But here's one pretty simple one:

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills 

-Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅

-Colts def. vs Steelers ✅️

-Lions def. Broncos ✅

-Texans def. Titans

-Browns def. Bears

-Dolphins def. Jets

Note: This is about as bad for us as possible, with the exception of Lions defeating the Broncos (but that's a very realistic possibility)

 

Just wanted to say, my very reasonable playoff scenario is off to a good start 😉

Edited December 17, 2023 by BigDingus

[DapperCam]

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

 

[Rubes]

 

[BigDingus]

7 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

Even if we lose tomorrow & the Dolphins still take the division, we will have a really good shot of making it at 10-7 with 3 x additional conference wins.

 

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

 

That's awesome! I just don't have much faith the Bills will finish the season with 5 straight wins (in a stretch against the Chiefs, Cowboys & Dolphins), but there are still plenty of ways if we slip up.

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by BigDingus

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

 

Yeah this is true.  Equally important was the Denver loss last night that also made this possible

[Jrb1979]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah this is true.  Equally important was the Denver loss last night that also made this possible

11-6 only happens if they win out. I don't see it. I don't get it. All these other teams the Bills are chasing are going to lose more than they win, yet the Bills are going to win 5 straight. 

 

 

[Scott7975]

46 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

11-6 only happens if they win out. I don't see it. I don't get it. All these other teams the Bills are chasing are going to lose more than they win, yet the Bills are going to win 5 straight. 

 

 

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

[Jrb1979]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

I don't see them winning today. Their offense is still that much better than it was under Dorsey. They still only scored 20 points last week and didn't make any adjustments after half time.  I think they will have a let down game somewhere in the next 3

[Scott7975]

Just now, Jrb1979 said:

I don't see them winning today. Their offense is still that much better than it was under Dorsey. They still only scored 20 points last week and didn't make any adjustments after half time.  I think they will have a let down game somewhere in the next 3

 

We going to find out in a few hours.  First team this year that has scared me really.  They have the pass rushers, they have the back end coverage.  They have the best offense in the NFL right now.  A lot of talent on that team. We going to need Diggs, Davis, Cook, and Allen to all go off.  No dropped passes. At least it's at home.

[Rew]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

The challenge you are having is you over value several teams and have a hard time finding all of the scenarios where we get in at 10-7.   There are a lot of paths for 10-7 to get us in, but there are also many paths where we miss.  Best odds are if we go 3-0 against AFC.  Before today's games we really do have better than 50/50 shot at wc if we end 10-7.  I'm not happy with 50/50 (or even 60/40), and would much rather win out so we don't have to worry about it, but you seem to be oblivious to the real chance that we get in at 10-7.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Rew

[DBilz2500]

3 minutes ago, Rew said:

The challenge you are having is you over value several teams and have a hard time finding all of the scenarios where we get in at 10-6.   There are a lot of paths for 10-6 to get us in, but there are also many paths where we miss.  Best odds are if we go 3-0 against AFC.  Before today's games we really do have better than 50/50 shot at wc if we end 10-6.  I'm not happy with 50/50 (or even 60/40), and would much rather win out so we don't have to worry about it, but you seem to be oblivious to the real chance that we get in at 10-6.

10-7*. 17 game season now 

[DapperCam]

16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If we win today I think we will.  I don't think we lose any of the rest of our schedule.  Today is going to be tough though.  What kills me is all the people that still think this team has a great shot to get a WC if we lose today because NYT odds.  I don't get those odds at all.  Sure, you can find a wc in the simulator at 10-7 but in those scenarios, any one of 3 or 4 games goes the other way and we are out.  That doesn't seem like good odds to me.

 

I think Bills get in at 10-7. I just think the teams tied/ahead of us are going to lose games.

Browns - Bears, at Texans, Jets, at Bengals (have to go 2-2)
Colts - at Falcons, Raiders, Texans (have to go 2-1)

Texans - at Titans, Browns, Titans, at Colts (have to go 3-1)
Steelers - Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens (have to go 3-0)

Bengals - at Steelers, at Chiefs, Browns (have to go 2-1)
Broncos - Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders (have to go 3-0)
Bills - Cowboys, at Chargers, Pats, at Dolphins (have to go 3-1)

The only 2 teams I feel confident will reach 10-7 are the Colts and Browns. Steelers are done, no way they win out. Texans will likely drop 2 more with Stroud out. Broncos probably won't win out. That leaves the Bengals. They will lose to KC, but we need them to either drop the Steelers or Browns game.

[Rew]

2 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said:

10-7*. 17 game season now 

Ty

[CodeMonkey]

15 hours ago, DapperCam said:

NYT playoff simulator says 71% chance of playoffs if we win tomorrow and the Dolphins lose with today’s results. Texans or Browns losing bumps it up to 75%.

 

Seems like this model considers the division to be our best path.

 

 

What else ya got

[HappyDays]

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

Browns (currently at 5 losses)

Bengals (6 losses)

Colts (6 losses)

Texans (6 losses)

 

Browns play the Texans and Bengals still. We should root for them to win out.

 

Texans and Colts still play so that is a freebie to knock one of them down to 7 losses.

 

Bengals still play the Chiefs and Browns. I'd be shocked if they win both of those.

 

So basically if we win out we are all but guaranteed a wildcard spot.

[bills6969]

Just now, HappyDays said:

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

Browns (currently at 5 losses)

Bengals (6 losses)

Colts (6 losses)

Texans (6 losses)

 

Browns play the Texans and Bengals still. We should root for them to win out.

 

Texans and Colts still play so that is a freebie to knock one of them down to 7 losses.

 

Bengals still play the Chiefs and Browns. I'd be shocked if they win both of those.

 

So basically if we win out we are all but guaranteed a wildcard spot.

There’s no question that we will make the playoffs if we win out.  Bengals and Browns play each other and so do Texans and Colts, it’s guaranteed that there will be at least two more team with at 7 losses that are currently log jammed at 8-6.

[Warcodered]

 

We're at the door let us in.

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

There’s no question that we will make the playoffs if we win out.

 

There is technically a path for that not to happen, but it's less than .1% likely. Basically the Dolphins would have to beat the Cowboys and Ravens, Bengals would have to win out, Colts would have to win out, Browns would have to lose to only the Bengals but win their other 2 games. And probably some other games would have to go a certain way too.

[DapperCam]

In theory the Bills could be in a playoff spot next week and control their own destiny to take the #2 seed.

 

Starts tonight with the Ravens knocking off the Jags.

[zow2]

There’s just no way if we win out we’re not in.   But there is also a scenario the Bills beat Pats and LAC but lose at Miami.  i don’t know if that knocks us out entirely or not?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So let's assume we win out but Miami beats the Cowboys and Ravens. For us to get in as a wildcard we need 2 of these teams to drop to 7 losses:

 

 

 

0.001% chance of that happening. at least 65% chance the Dolphins lose both those games. They should be thrilled to get a split. 

[bills6969]

I think we’re on a collision course for the Dolphins game to be for the division.  Winner takes the division, the loser possibly doesn’t get a wildcard spot (which is scary to think about)

[zow2]

We need the Raiders to step up and gonna root hard for KC to smother Cincinnati in a couple weeks.

[BigDingus]

So the Week 15 playoff scenario I predicted that would still allow the Bills to make the 7th seed played out nearly perfect.

 

I was trying to predict worst case scenarios that still allow us a path without winning the division, but we're already ahead of schedule with a win today!

 

Week 15:

 

-Cowboys def. Bills  ❌

-Bengals def. vs Vikings ✅

-Colts def. vs Steelers ✅

-Lions def. Broncos ✅

-Texans def. Titans ✅

-Browns def. Bears ✅

-Dolphins def. Jets ✅

 

Now the Bills just need to take care of business against the teams they're expected to beat, and things are looking very good.