2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[LABILLBACKER]

32 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

I believe I remember someone posting that Josh had an 80% completion percentage against the Jets well into the game before he wigged out and started chucking the ball around.  If that's true, then if Josh had been patient and continued doing what he was doing he would have had an 80%+ percentage in 3 out of his 4 games and won the other one by over 30 points.  Yikes.  But he's not accurate and will always be a sub-60% completion guy.

That is correct.  If he had just stayed the course at 13-3, he likely would've ended the game over 80%.  And he would be at 80% for the season.  He's figured it out and making mature decisions. 

[stinky finger]

37 minutes ago, Strethor said:

I care about the Lombardi trophy not the MVP award 

 

 

 

Agree - who ****ing cares?!?!

[gobills404]

11 hours ago, Strethor said:

I care about the Lombardi trophy not the MVP award 

 

 

You can care about both

10 hours ago, stinky finger said:

 

Agree - who ****ing cares?!?!

Lots of people because seeing a Bills player win MVP would be really cool. Why do you care that people care?

Edited October 2, 2023 by gobills404

[Royale with Cheese]

It changed in the last hour!

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

If he played like this every week he might have a chance at MVP but he's too hot or cold. The MVP is good every game, not just good one game then crap the next. We are on to the Jags where he couldn't complete a pass last year so let's not too ahead of ourselves 

 

You said you'd leave the board forever if we drafted Allen, right? What happened?

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

    My son was freaking out when he took the sack and I was like, Excellent play….. then Romo said it. Egoless , smart football.

Yup, thats the play he'd force in the endzone with double coverage resulting in a pic.  We walked away with points.

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

This MVP stuff isn’t worth thinking about till much later in any season, it’s four games in, we have thirteen more games to go…, 

Thanks Dad

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

You throw out that abomination Jets game where Josh was way too amped and he's your mvp front runner after today.  Just stay on script Josh and the turnovers will disappear. 

Feel like even with the week 1 performance he should be the front runner now. Should be some big moves in the odds after today. Allen will surely overtake Tua who was the leader before today’s games. I’m just not sure he will leap Mahomes although he should in both my biased AND unbiased opinions.

5 hours ago, Bangarang said:

I was waiting for transplant to start this thread. Hopefully it ends better than your last one

I got a good feeling about this one.

 

Nearly the entire national media was crapping on the Bills before this season started. Factor in the dreadful week 1 performance and it only makes sense that this is the year Allen does actually win the MVP.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, Beast said:

He needs to make more commercials. 

He needs less time in the film room! Just ball Josh. Oh, and check down to Kincaid A LOT!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The national narrative was correct. When he tries too hard and takes too many chances it hurts the team. He has obviously learned from that game.  He is playing calm and under control and taking chances when they make sense.  Being embarrassed on national TV might have been the best thing to happen to Allen.  He is playing the best football he has played since the KC playoff game.  

I’m still not even 100% sold on this theory of Allen needing to calm down and him having figured that out.

 

1. Not sure he needs to calm down.

 

2. If he does, not sold we won’t see one or two more repeats of the Jets game later this season.

 

So many of Allen’s great WOW plays are also plays where the first instinct should be don’t try this just throw it away or eat it for a sack .  But for every bonehead play Allen makes, he makes two spectacular plays.

 

The real difference in the Jets game is that the Bills could have handed the ball off for the rest of that game in the second half and likely gotten the W.

 

But we will have playoff games where we rely on Allen having that 2:1 ratio of  WOW plays to boneheaded plays. 

[Punching Bag]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

11 TDs. 5 turnovers. 74.8% completion percentage. 7.8 YPA. 

 

Leading a 3-1 team that's gonna have the largest point differential in the NFL after this week... probably by a large margin.

 

We're so lucky.

 

 

Joining Doug Flutie of all people.

[Dr.Sack]

Mahomes is the MVP. Allen will need to double Mahomes stats to win, so just focus on getting the #1 seed. Take it one week at a time. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, 947 said:

Josh will probably always be the first half MVP favorite. Then we'll have a rain game followed by 2 games with 40mph wind, while the other candidates play in perfect weather.

The biggest deciding factor for MVP has always been team record and specifically obtaining the 1 seed in your conference. Bad weather does not play a factor in that regard. 
 

Also of note this year, Bills play at LA Charger and @ Miami in two of their last three games of the year. Weather won’t be a problem for either. 

[Sierra Foothills]

5 hours ago, DapperCam said:

No players have really separated themselves at this point. The top 6 or 7 QBs all have similar stats. Let’s see where things are in a month, there will be more separation.

 

No players have separated themselves yet?

 

In your eyes, which 6-7 QBs are in contention for the MVP?

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Mahomes is the MVP. Allen will need to double Mahomes stats to win, so just focus on getting the #1 seed. Take it one week at a time. 

If the Bills get the 1 seed Allenwill be MVP. I don’t see Mahomes having stats advantage this year that can overcome Allen and the Bills having the 1 seed. 
 

It is very early but IMO we have three man race right now with Allen, Mahomes and McCaffery. Lamar could factor in but let’s see if he can last a full season. Also seems unlikely they would get the 1 seed over Buffalo or KC. 

[Dr.Sack]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

If the Bills get the 1 seed Allenwill be MVP. I don’t see Mahomes having stats advantage this year that can overcome Allen and the Bills having the 1 seed. 
 

It is very early but IMO we have three man race right now with Allen, Mahomes and McCaffery. Lamar could factor in but let’s see if he can last a full season. Also seems unlikely they would get the 1 seed over Buffalo or KC. 

Mahomes will be MVP period. Allen can go 80% 4500 yards 35 TDs / 12 picks and 8 rushing TDs, but that won’t matter. Mahomes will win it if he’s 65% 5000 yards 30 TDs and 10 picks with 4 rushing TDs. Holding Allen down is personal to the powers that be. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

If he played like this every week he might have a chance at MVP but he's too hot or cold. The MVP is good every game, not just good one game then crap the next. We are on to the Jags where he couldn't complete a pass last year so let's not too ahead of ourselves 

Ummm…he’s played outstanding at the position 3/4 games played back to back to back, but by your logic wouldn’t Tua and Mahomes now also be dunzo in the category given their middling performances today? 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

53 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Mahomes will be MVP period. Allen can go 80% 4500 yards 35 TDs / 12 picks and 8 rushing TDs, but that won’t matter. Mahomes will win it if he’s 65% 5000 yards 30 TDs and 10 picks with 4 rushing TDs. Holding Allen down is personal to the powers that be. 

 

The fact of the matter is Allen has never been on a team with the 1 seed. I think the last five MVP's from most recent have been Mahomes, Rodgers, Rodgers, Lamar and Mahomes. In every instance they were all on a team that finished first in their conference. 

 

In your scenario, if each player has those stats, they very well could give it to Mahomes if the Chiefs are the 1 seed. 

[KDIGGZ]

5 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Ummm…he’s played outstanding at the position 3/4 games played back to back to back, but by your logic wouldn’t Tua and Mahomes now also be dunzo in the category given their middling performances today? 🤷🏼‍♂️

Uhh what? Tua completed 71% of his passes for almost 300 yards and a TD. You think that's bad? Wake me up when he has a mental collapse with 4 turnovers and tries to jump over 2 people 7 yards short of a 1st down. Josh has at least 2 more games like that in him for the season starting this week with Jax.

[Boatdrinks]

Allen has a much better chance at Super Bowl MVP this season ( the only MVP that matters) than the NFL MVP. Sit back and enjoy the ride. 

[JerseyBills]

6 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Uhh what? Tua completed 71% of his passes for almost 300 yards and a TD. You think that's bad? Wake me up when he has a mental collapse with 4 turnovers and tries to jump over 2 people 7 yards short of a 1st down. Josh has at least 2 more games like that in him for the season starting this week with Jax.

He had a pick and White dropped a pick 6. Had 2 circus catches in double coverage,  Waddle and Mosert. We dominated Tua despite 300 yards. He can't take pressure and we took his first read away where he gets very uncomfortable,  barely improvises. Allen is on a whole different level 

[78thealltimegreat]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You said you'd leave the board forever if we drafted Allen, right? What happened?

I remember that 

[Matt_In_NH]

32 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

He had a pick and White dropped a pick 6. Had 2 circus catches in double coverage,  Waddle and Mosert. We dominated Tua despite 300 yards. He can't take pressure and we took his first read away where he gets very uncomfortable,  barely improvises. Allen is on a whole different level 

I like when Tua preserves his stats and takes sacks on fourth down.  

[DapperCam]

6 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

No players have separated themselves yet?

 

In your eyes, which 6-7 QBs are in contention for the MVP?

 

Just take a look at the stats page for QBs, and you’ll see that the top is all bunched up.

 

Allen is currently #6 in yards, #1 in comp % (Lamar Jackson is essentially tied though), #5 in YPA, tied for #2 in TDs with 3 other QBs. Tied for #3 in passer rating with Herbert just behind.

 

As of today, MVP is probably looking like:

- Tua

- Allen

- L. Jackson

- Mahomes

- Purdy

- Herbert

 

Russell Wilson actually has an identical passer rating to Allen right now with 9 TDs and 2 INTs (although I think garbage time might have something to do with that).

[78thealltimegreat]

Josh will never ever win an MVP playing in Buffalo.  The weather is just too unpredictable after Halloween and a low scoring defensive game or two where he is off and it really isn’t his fault will always factor into the media narrative.

 

Heck about 10 members of this board still criticize everything he does. Much less the Nick Wrights and Steven A Smiths of the world. 
 

So Josh go win a Super Bowl and make more commercials. 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

10 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

If he played like this every week he might have a chance at MVP but he's too hot or cold. The MVP is good every game, not just good one game then crap the next. We are on to the Jags where he couldn't complete a pass last year so let's not too ahead of ourselves 

Are you sure you should be talking QB’s when you make a claim that Justin Fields is a better QB than Jalen Hurts?

 

Oh and by the way, Mahomes threw 3 pick last year against the Nate Hackett Broncos…won MVP.  No way!

[GunnerBill]

What is interesting about Josh through 4 weeks is he has been better at home rather than on the road. I feel like to this point in his Bills career it has often been the other way around. He was flawless yesterday. I am glad he got a perfect passer rating because I thought his decision making was perfect yesterday. He played Quarterback literally perfectly. 

[Warriorspikes51]

after Mahomes should have been credited with 4 ints last night, I'd say Josh is right there for MVP

then again....NBC awarded Mahomes a player of the game 🤣

[finn]

I don't know. There's a calm emanating from Allen the past two or three games I haven't seen too often before. He seems very much in control of himself and the offense. Even against the Jets he was taking what they gave him until he melted down. Ironically, he might have needed that meltdown to learn (or reinforce) the lesson that he doesn't have to do it all. My sense is that this is the version of Allen we'll see from now on, the same version we saw in the 13-second game. In short, the best player in the league, at any position. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

53 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Josh will never ever win an MVP playing in Buffalo.  The weather is just too unpredictable after Halloween and a low scoring defensive game or two where he is off and it really isn’t his fault will always factor into the media narrative.

 

Heck about 10 members of this board still criticize everything he does. Much less the Nick Wrights and Steven A Smiths of the world. 
 

So Josh go win a Super Bowl and make more commercials. 

 

That used to be my thought as well, but I'm changing my mind on it. 

 

In the past even in bad weather Josh was playing the same style of downfield passing, run the ball himself. And that would lead to those 18-31 201 yard passing days.

 

This year? If he plays the way he has, is patient and hits the short underneath stuff he can still have solid days in worse weather consistently. He's not running this year as much either (I believe he has 12 rushes through 4 games...who is this guy?). But what he is doing is scrambling out and keeping his eyes upfield. Result: big play. Once the weather turns a bit and footing becomes an issue this should only HELP put up better numbers and the DBs will struggle with footing on those plays. As long as he stays playing with the patience he has and continues to trust his playmakers he's got a solid chance at a monumental season. 

[Fan in Chicago]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

What is interesting about Josh through 4 weeks is he has been better at home rather than on the road. I feel like to this point in his Bills career it has often been the other way around. He was flawless yesterday. I am glad he got a perfect passer rating because I thought his decision making was perfect yesterday. He played Quarterback literally perfectly. 

Let's also appreciate his throwaway and taking of a sack because on those plays, he accepted defeat instead of attempting a risky throw. I clapped on both of those because it's the maturation I have been waiting to see. 

If he continues playing with patience and smartness, he will be the MVP this season. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Just take a look at the stats page for QBs, and you’ll see that the top is all bunched up.

 

Allen is currently #6 in yards, #1 in comp % (Lamar Jackson is essentially tied though), #5 in YPA, tied for #2 in TDs with 3 other QBs. Tied for #3 in passer rating with Herbert just behind.

 

As of today, MVP is probably looking like:

- Tua

- Allen

- L. Jackson

- Mahomes

- Purdy

- Herbert

 

Russell Wilson actually has an identical passer rating to Allen right now with 9 TDs and 2 INTs (although I think garbage time might have something to do with that).

Josh has also been pulled early/has just run out the clock in 3 straight games because his team is absolutely destroying people.  He’s the leader of an offense who’s point differential is comically large 

 

haven’t looked it up yet but I’d guess josh is a slight mvp favorite right now.

 

The mvp odds aren’t just a snapshot of who has the best stats at the current moment either, they have to bake some future predictions into it as well.  For that reason I doubt tua is even 2. The offensive line discrepancy between the bills and chiefs vs the dolphins is massive so it’s really hard to envision tua winning the mvp when you’re trying to predict out the rest of the season 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

He had a pick and White dropped a pick 6. Had 2 circus catches in double coverage,  Waddle and Mosert. We dominated Tua despite 300 yards. He can't take pressure and we took his first read away where he gets very uncomfortable,  barely improvises. Allen is on a whole different level 

Doesn't matter at the end of the year when the stats are compiled what coulda woulda shoulda.

 

If you graphed their output, Tua would look consistently good and level with not too much deviance. Josh's would be all over the place, way too much volatility. Higher highs and lower lows.

 

I don't think Tua is better, in fact I think he's crap. He's a noodle arm 1-read QB and there's absolutely nothing special about him. He's successful because of McDaniel and was absolute dog doo doo before him and Hill got there. But he plays consistently above average football in that system because they don't ask him to do too much and the result is efficient.

[Don Otreply]

10 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Thanks Dad

I hate it when y’all make me be the adult in the room, 😂

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Are you sure you should be talking QB’s when you make a claim that Justin Fields is a better QB than Jalen Hurts?

 

Oh and by the way, Mahomes threw 3 pick last year against the Nate Hackett Broncos…won MVP.  No way!

Yes Fields can do whatever Tua or Hurts do. Plug him into either of those teams and don't ask him to do much and he's just as good. I don't think that's as much of a leap as you are making it out to be.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yes Fields can do whatever Tua or Hurts do. Plug him into either of those teams and don't ask him to do much and he's just as good. I don't think that's as much of a leap as you are making it out to be.

It is completely okay to say Hurts is overrated.  I believe that as well.

 

But to say he’s worse than one of the worst is being ridiculous.  Fields is awful.

 

[McBean]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

11 TDs. 5 turnovers. 74.8% completion percentage. 7.8 YPA. 

 

Leading a 3-1 team that's gonna have the largest point differential in the NFL after this week... probably by a large margin.

 

We're so lucky.

 

Very fortunate to have this kid as our QB.

 

Wouldn’t want anyone else.

[DapperCam]

21 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Josh has also been pulled early/has just run out the clock in 3 straight games because his team is absolutely destroying people.  He’s the leader of an offense who’s point differential is comically large 

 

haven’t looked it up yet but I’d guess josh is a slight mvp favorite right now.

 

The mvp odds aren’t just a snapshot of who has the best stats at the current moment either, they have to bake some future predictions into it as well.  For that reason I doubt tua is even 2. The offensive line discrepancy between the bills and chiefs vs the dolphins is massive so it’s really hard to envision tua winning the mvp when you’re trying to predict out the rest of the season 

I could see Tua having by far the best QB stats this year, because the Dolphins are going to stat pad against bad and middle of the road defenses.

 

Won’t matter come playoff time though.

[Mr. WEO]

It's 2021 all over again!!

[KDIGGZ]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

It is completely okay to say Hurts is overrated.  I believe that as well.

 

But to say he’s worse than one of the worst is being ridiculous.  Fields is awful.

 

Fields tries to do too much because his team is crap. Maybe one of the worst teams in the past decade. Arizona is tanking and the Bears are still worse.

 

Historically, Fields has played very efficient football like Tua or Hurts when he doesn't have to do it all on his own. He has been consistently a 70%+ passer with very high TD to almost zero int ratio. He can do whatever they do in the right situation. Tua is 🗑️