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Kubiak's Josh Allen Analysis


WNYFAN1

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1 hour ago, WNYFAN1 said:

 

LOL.  Kubiak started out being a bit of a Josh Allen skeptic, and has converted to a Josh Allen partisan.

 

I'm sure there are aspects proving the truism "never as good as you think, never as bad as you think" when you watch fillm, and that we all give excessive mental weight to the bad plays vs. someone who is methodically grading every play.  That's how many of us watch a preseason game and say "Kyle Allen sucked, Matt Barkley looked much better" while Ken Dorsey tells us "they actually graded out about the same" and many of us respond "by what grading rubric? and maybe you should fix it."

 

But yeah.  I actually suggested to @JoshBarnett last year (after a similar game got reviewed IMO very generously) that Kubiak had been abducted by space aliens and replaced by a Pod Person (in the Body Snatchers sense). 

 

I don't think my suggestion found favor. 😅

Edited by Beck Water
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14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

LOL.  Kubiak started out being a bit of a Josh Allen skeptic, and has converted to a Josh Allen partisan.

 

I'm sure there are aspects proving the truism "never as good as you think, never as bad as you think" when you watch fillm, and that we all give excessive mental weight to the bad plays vs. someone who is methodically grading every play.

 

But yeah.  I actually suggested to @JoshBarnett last year (after a similar game got reviewed IMO very generously) that Kubiak had been abducted by space aliens and replaced by a Pod Person (in the Body Snatchers sense).  I don't think my suggestion found favor.

83.4 is a very low grade from him and he was quite tough on Allen (deservedly so). He seems to be basically arguing that Allen performed poorly 17 percent of the time, which isn't a road to success. Anyway, I wouldn't equate his grading system with that used for a ninth grade math test. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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Josh did have a 70 percent completion percentage but his 3 ints really would cloud any positive judgments out of this game. 
He has to absolutely know by now teams aren’t going to give him the homerun throw anymore and the book on him is he will get frustrated and try to play hero ball.
Whether Dorsey is the right guy to fix that is anyone’s guess. 

Edited by 78thealltimegreat
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3 hours ago, WNYFAN1 said:

I think Kubiak was actually measured in his analysis. He didn't pull any punches but at the same time he didn't ignore the fact that for stretches of this game Allen played very well.  And yes Allen made several of his patented elite throws, scrambles and runs.

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:
3 hours ago, WNYFAN1 said:

I want this guy grading my papers!

I think Kubiak was actually measured in his analysis. He didn't pull any punches but at the same time he didn't ignore the fact that for stretches of this game Allen played very well.  And yes Allen made several of his patented elite throws, scrambles and runs.

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

I don't think that's what that was. the Guys at Cover1 I thought nailed this pretty good, Josh didn't check the off safety (Whitehead), and just assumed Jordan was taken up but a dig route on the right side - White didn't give a crap about the dig and bailed deep as soon as the right sided WR shoed that dig, and faded back into the EZ. 

 

So because Josh didn't check Jordan, he thought he had Diggs 1v1 on that deep post. If Jordan had been checked by the dig route, that's at worst an incomplete, and at best an elite play by Diggs to come down with it, which he's capable of doing. 

 

But ultimately, Josh needs to check that far safety and not make an assumption. 

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The one forgivable "decision" on an INT was the 3rd one. In that play Bills ran a smash concept (3 guys running routes to the sideline at 3 different levels), Sauce dipped into the low zone coverage in, leaving I think Davis to run that corner route - with leverage - on Jordan Whitehead. He read that perfectly, but that was really bad ball placement which led to that INT. Shouldn't even have been risky throw even, because that ball goes up the sideline, and instead Josh left that behind Davis. Thats a throw I'm confident he puts in a decent spot 9 out of 10. 

Edited by appoo
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24 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

This is exactly how I feel about that one. I think he didn't take off and run because coaching is too much in his head about that.  Even if they mean to just be smart and go oob, it's just one more thing in the back of Allen's head that he has to think about.  They are trying too hard to coach Allen out of Allen.  Maybe down the road Allen has that figured out and is smart about his running but at this point, it's just messing with his brain. I could see the confliction in his head in the preseason game.  He went to take off to run but then hesitated.  That hesitation led to him getting nailed.  This stuff is going to get him hurt before him just being himself will get him hurt.

 

I liked the comment at the end of the article

Quote

This quarterback adversity is a reminder of a quote that perhaps can help become the building blocks of redemption in Week 2 against the Raiders. “Success is not final and failure is not fatal.” Allen will be, and should be, angry and looking to avenge this effort. Despite the fact that he is as talented and tough a quarterback as there has ever been, he must develop the self-discipline to keep his worst tendencies in check and protect the football. There is simply no other path to achieving the elite success he is capable of.

 

10 minutes ago, appoo said:

The one forgivable "decision" on an INT was the 3rd one. In that play Bills ran a smash concept (3 guys running routes to the sideline at 3 different levels), Sauce dipped into the low zone coverage in, leaving I think Davis to run that corner route - with leverage - on Jordan Whitehead. He read that perfectly, but that was really bad ball placement which led to that INT. Shouldn't even have been risky throw even, because that ball goes up the sideline, and instead Josh left that behind Davis. Thats a throw I'm confident he puts in a decent spot 9 out of 10. 

 

I agree but I also think Davis ran a poor route.

Edited by Scott7975
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Kurt Warner is likely to have a field day for this one. He has been pounding the table for a few seasons that Allen is an amazing athlete who is making bad QB decisions. 

38 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think Kubiak was actually measured in his analysis. He didn't pull any punches but at the same time he didn't ignore the fact that for stretches of this game Allen played very well.  And yes Allen made several of his patented elite throws, scrambles and runs.

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

 

 

That is a good point I had not thought of. I think you are right on it. 

But the flip side is that if Josh Allen's strength is his physical gifts, then his weakness is his decision making. If you ask your QB to make better decision (smart decisions - points at head), and he makes worse ones, that is also a problem with the QB. 

 

There has to be some middle ground where Josh protects the football/the team(most turnovers since entering the NFL) and playing Josh Allen style football. 

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14 minutes ago, Mango said:

Kurt Warner is likely to have a field day for this one. He has been pounding the table for a few seasons that Allen is an amazing athlete who is making bad QB decisions. 

 

sad to say it, but he's not wrong.

 

the kubiak breakdown was great -- bottom line is 38% of the bills chance to score got shut down by allen's decisions, not to mention the better field position, momentum for the jets and the fatigue and demotivation for the bills d

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1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think Kubiak was actually measured in his analysis. He didn't pull any punches but at the same time he didn't ignore the fact that for stretches of this game Allen played very well.  And yes Allen made several of his patented elite throws, scrambles and runs.

 

One thing that stood out to me was Allen's decision not to run for the 1st down on the play he launched the deep INT.  IMO this is a problem of coaching.  In their zeal to cut down on Allen's runs the Bill's brain trust risks compromising one of Allen's great gifts.  I want Allen taking that run EVERY time.  The coaches need to reinforce that in that situation Allen should tuck the ball and head down the sideline.

 

 

Agree,  Kubiak did not give a glowing review, quite the contrary.  He basically wrote that Allen left lots of easy productive plays on the field.  He concludes by writing that if Allen is to reach his full potential, that must stop.

 

Also a story in the WaPo today about how lots of QBs struggled last week-- especially the elite ones.  Brewer writes defenses have caught up to offenses and it is now a chess match that requires patience.  For guys that have had lots of big play offense, it is hard to scale back.

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