My Too Early 53 man Roster based on Camp reports

[BuffaloBillyG]

With the Bills first preseason game fast approaching I thought I'd take a look at where I see the roster at before the games take place. Bolded are in my view locks for the roster. Italicized are players that are "near locks" in my estimation. Looking over the roster spot by spot it strikes me that we are going to be letting quite a handful of really talented players go pretty soon. Some of these guys could have started for this franchise even 4-5 short years ago. Problems of having a deep roster.

 

QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

 

Earlier in the off-season I viewed Kyle Allen as a lock. Now? Not quite sure. Sounds like he may be playing himself out of a job. One of Kyle or Barkley will likely make the roster as the backup (unless Beane makes a move) the other could be PS bound.

 

RB: James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam, Evans, Mims

 

Before the Hines injury I had Murray as a possible PS placeholder. Now, I believe he's destined for the TJ Yeldon role unless injury strikes. Gilliam makes it easily as well. Evans and Mims in my view are fighting for a PS role. 

 

WR: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Harty, Shorter, Shakir, Isabella, Shavers, Coulter, Patmon, Johnson.

 

Expecting some push back at this position. Sheffield is a lock in my eyes due to what sounds like a solid camp, Josh's admiration for him and the fact he plays ST. Shakir is a guy that I think needs to show something in PS games. Could one of Isabella, Shavers or Coulter push the former 5th rounder off the roster? Not likely but a strong showing by one of them and continued drops by Shakir may crack open the door.

 

TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Morris, Sternberger, Wilson

 

Buffalo finds itself in rare territory here. For decades we couldn't find a decent TE...now it would seem we have 2. That moves the position battle down the line to TE3. I give the edge here to Morris but Sternberger and Wilson have a shot with at least one of them headed to a possible PS spot if they are chopped.

 

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Bates, Brown, Torrence, Quessenberry, Shell, Doyle, Edwards, Doyle, and a cast of many others

 

Outside of the top 6 (and possibly Edwards) most of the other guys can end up anywhere from making the team, to the PS, to playing elsewhere or nowhere all together. I don't see it happening because they love his versatility, but if someone like Edwards shows well, does that lead to "Ryan Trade Bates?" 

 

For those keeping track, that's 16 spots I have set in stone. Another 3 set to "near lock" for 19 roster spots claimed. On to the defense!

 

DL: Groot, Floyd, Von, Jones, Oliver, Ford, Lawson, AJE, Phillips, Settle, Boogie, Ray, Ankou, Kingsley, "the rest"

 

Insert token "depending on if Von starts on PUP" comment here. The ones I have highlighted as locks are pretty set in stone. I do have AJE (and am prepared to defend) as a near lock due to his progression as a pass rusher last year. I think Phillips is "close" to being a lock pending on health. Talent wise I question if Settle can make it, then look at his contract and realize Buffalo would gain almost nothing financially by letting him go. Can Ray/Boogie push Lawson for a spot? That's going to be a battle to see in the games. 

 

LB: Matt Milano, Dodson, Williams, Bernard, Spector, Matakevich, Klein, Howard

 

Milano is a no brainer. Williams as well due to being a day 2 pick this year. I believe even if Dodson loses the MLB battle, he makes it for experience alone. Eye rolls around for Matakevich, I know. Bernard and Spector add depth and can contribute on ST. Klein I believe will be PS bound if he chooses to continue to play.

 

CB: White, Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Lewis, Neal, Ingram, Austin, Brown

 

Another deep group. I realize Lewis is covering Safety as well. Where he's listed in my view is just book keeping as he will offer depth at both spots. For me Neal was the closest "near lock" to being a bolded lock. I know some will disagree on both sides and opinions range from him being a pivotal part of the team to "he sucks". 

 

S: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin, Marlowe, Anderson, Mayden

 

Our top 3 are unquestionably making it. After that a lot comes into play. Will the Bills value Marlowe for his experience? Hamlin for his upside? A sleeper here is the forgotten Anderson who the Bills signed very early in the off-season and may offer the best ST coverage of the group.

 

ST: Ferguson, Bass, Martin

 

All locks. However, don't be surprised if Ferguson is released at initial cuts to open a spot if they need to get someone through to IR and brought back right after. Procedure move.

 

By my totals defense and ST rings up:

20 spots locked in

8 spots "near locks"

 

Grand total of:

36 roster locks

11 near locks

 

 For a total of 47 spots claimed or close to it. 

 

Sorry this was long and rambling. I feel I was perhaps a bit too stingy handing out "locks" So what say you, Mafia? What did I get wrong? 

 

Edited August 8, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

With the Bills first preseason game fast approaching I thought I'd take a look at where I see the roster at before the games take place. Bolded are in my view locks for the roster. Italicized are players that are "near locks" in my estimation. Looking over the roster spot by spot it strikes me that we are going to be letting quite a handful of really talented players go pretty soon. Some of these guys could have started for this franchise even 4-5 short years ago. Problems of having a deep roster.

 

QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

 

Earlier in the off-season I viewed Kyle Allen as a lock. Now? Not quite sure. Sounds like he may be playing himself out of a job. One of Kyle or Barkley will likely make the roster as the backup (unless Beane makes a move) the other could be PS bound.

 

RB: James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam, Evans, Mims

 

Before the Hines injury I had Murray as a possible PS placeholder. Now, I believe he's destined for the TJ Yeldon role unless injury strikes. Gilliam makes it easily as well. Evans and Mims in my view are fighting for a PS role. 

 

WR: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sheffield, Harty, Shorter, Shakir, Isabella, Shavers, Coulter, Patmon, Johnson.

 

Expecting some push back at this position. Sheffield is a lock in my eyes due to what sounds like a solid camp, Josh's admiration for him and the fact he plays ST. Shakir is a guy that I think needs to show something in PS games. Could one of Isabella, Shavers or Coulter push the former 5th rounder off the roster? Not likely but a strong showing by one of them and continued drops by Shakir may crack open the door.

 

TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Morris, Sternberger, Wilson

 

Buffalo finds itself in rare territory here. For decades we couldn't find a decent TE...now it would seem we have 2. That moves the position battle down the line to TE3. I give the edge here to Morris but Sternberger and Wilson have a shot with at least one of them headed to a possible PS spot if they are chopped.

 

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Bates, Brown, Torrence, Quessenberry, Shell, Doyle, Edwards, Doyle, and a cast of many others

 

Outside of the top 6 (and possibly Edwards) most of the other guys can end up anywhere from making the team, to the PS, to playing elsewhere or nowhere all together. I don't see it happening because they love his versatility, but if someone like Edwards shows well, does that lead to "Ryan Trade Bates?" 

 

For those keeping track, that's 16 spots I have set in stone. Another 3 set to "near lock" for 19 roster spots claimed. On to the defense!

 

DL: Groot, Floyd, Von, Jones, Oliver, Ford, Lawson, AJE, Phillips, Settle, Boogie, Ray, Ankou, Kingsley, "the rest"

 

Insert token "depending on if Von starts on PUP" comment here. The ones I have highlighted as locks are pretty set in stone. I do have AJE (and am prepared to defend) as a near lock due to his progression as a pass rusher last year. I think Phillips is "close" to being a lock pending on health. Talent wise I question if Settle can make it, then look at his contract and realize Buffalo would gain almost nothing financially by letting him go. Can Ray/Boogie push Lawson for a spot? That's going to be a battle to see in the games. 

 

LB: Matt Milano, Dodson, Williams, Bernard, Spector, Matakevich, Klein, Howard

 

Milano is a no brainer. Williams as well due to being a day 2 pick this year. I believe even if Dodson loses the MLB battle, he makes it for experience alone. Eye rolls around for Matakevich, I know. Bernard and Spector add depth and can contribute on ST. Klein I believe will be PS bound if he chooses to continue to play.

 

CB: White, Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Lewis, Neal, Ingram, Austin, Brown

 

Another deep group. I realize Lewis is covering Safety as well. Where he's listed in my view is just book keeping as he will offer depth at both spots. For me Neal was the closest "near lock" to being a bolded lock. I know some will disagree on both sides and opinions range from him being a pivotal part of the team to "he sucks". 

 

S: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin, Marlowe, Anderson, Mayden

 

Our top 3 are unquestionably making it. After that a lot comes into play. Will the Bills value Marlowe for his experience? Hamlin for his upside? A sleeper here is the forgotten Anderson who the Bills signed very early in the off-season and may offer the best ST coverage of the group.

 

ST: Ferguson, Bass, Martin

 

All locks. However, don't be surprised if Ferguson is released at initial cuts to open a spot if they need to get someone through to IR and brought back right after. Procedure move.

 

By my totals defense and ST rings up:

20 spots locked in

8 spots "near locks"

 

Grand total of:

36 roster locks

11 near locks

 

 For a total of 47 spots claimed or close to it. 

 

Sorry this was long and rambling. I feel I was perhaps a bit too stingy handing out "locks" So what say you, Mafia? What did I get wrong? 

 

If you don’t have Harty as a LOCK, you’re wrong. His spot is safer than about 1/2 of the guys you have as locks. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

I think Harty is safe and I also think they will take what they can get for Basham, they are certainly talking him up so far.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you don’t have Harty as a LOCK, you’re wrong. His spot is safer than about 1/2 of the guys you have as locks. 

Yea he was one I definitely debated a bit harder than others. His return game ability and speed pretty much lock him in, I would agree. However, I have not made it to camp this year and seen his abilities or usage firsthand so I can't lock him in, myself yet. That's why I'm doing this projection early to see how my view changes once the ball is kicked off.

5 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I think Harty is safe and I also think they will take what they can get for Basham, they are certainly talking him up so far.

There are a number of guys that I can see getting moved late in preseason. Basham is certainly one of them, but don't rule out someone like Mancz as well. If Beane could find a draft pick for Russell Bodine and Marshall Newhouse he can flip someone like that as well lol

Edited August 7, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yea he was one I definitely debated a bit harder than others. His return game ability and speed pretty much lock him in, I would agree. However, I have not made it to camp this year and seen his abilities or usage firsthand so I can't lock him in, myself yet. That's why I'm doing this projection early to see how my view changes once the ball is kicked off.

There are a number of guys that I can see getting moved late in preseason. Basham is certainly one of them, but don't rule out someone like Mancz as well. If Beane could find a draft pick for Russell Bodine and Marshall Newhouse he can flip someone like that as well lol

He has $5.25M guaranteed. He is the ONLY guy on the roster with that skill set (especially with Hines out). He is the definition of a lock. It literally costs $1M more to cut him than to keep him. 

[HiMark]

I do not have Lewis on my 53 yet.  I understand his value to Coach, but I also liken his value on the waiver-wire, as likely unclaimed, and so I hesitate to keep those guys when I can cut them (still pissed they didn't cut him to keep Hodgins.)

So I need 7 more, 6 once we pick a backup qb--opinion withheld

Morriss

Sternberger

Quessenberry (Sorry, Doyle)

Shell

Edwards

Hamlin

And with Von to PUP, Settle

 

1 minute ago, HiMark said:

I do not have Lewis on my 53 yet.  I understand his value to Coach, but I also liken his value on the waiver-wire, as likely unclaimed, and so I hesitate to keep those guys when I can cut them (still pissed they didn't cut him to keep Hodgins.)

So I need 7 more, 6 once we pick a backup qb--opinion withheld

Morriss

Sternberger

Quessenberry (Sorry, Doyle)

Shell

Edwards

Hamlin

And with Von to PUP, Settle

 

Wait, that means I cut Boogie, and I don't want to do that (General Managing is hard!).

I'm afraid Morriss gets the high hat. sorry pal, hope to see you on the Squad side!

[Simon Says]

I have hard nothing about Shaq Lawson this summer: what is going on with him?

4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

With the Bills first preseason game fast approaching I thought I'd take a look at where I see the roster at before the games take place. Bolded are in my view locks for the roster. Italicized are players that are "near locks" in my estimation. Looking over the roster spot by spot it strikes me that we are going to be letting quite a handful of really talented players go pretty soon. Some of these guys could have started for this franchise even 4-5 short years ago. Problems of having a deep roster.

 

QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

 

Earlier in the off-season I viewed Kyle Allen as a lock. Now? Not quite sure. Sounds like he may be playing himself out of a job. One of Kyle or Barkley will likely make the roster as the backup (unless Beane makes a move) the other could be PS bound.

 

RB: James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam, Evans, Mims

 

Before the Hines injury I had Murray as a possible PS placeholder. Now, I believe he's destined for the TJ Yeldon role unless injury strikes. Gilliam makes it easily as well. Evans and Mims in my view are fighting for a PS role. 

 

WR: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sheffield, Harty, Shorter, Shakir, Isabella, Shavers, Coulter, Patmon, Johnson.

 

Expecting some push back at this position. Sheffield is a lock in my eyes due to what sounds like a solid camp, Josh's admiration for him and the fact he plays ST. Shakir is a guy that I think needs to show something in PS games. Could one of Isabella, Shavers or Coulter push the former 5th rounder off the roster? Not likely but a strong showing by one of them and continued drops by Shakir may crack open the door.

 

TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Morris, Sternberger, Wilson

 

Buffalo finds itself in rare territory here. For decades we couldn't find a decent TE...now it would seem we have 2. That moves the position battle down the line to TE3. I give the edge here to Morris but Sternberger and Wilson have a shot with at least one of them headed to a possible PS spot if they are chopped.

 

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Bates, Brown, Torrence, Quessenberry, Shell, Doyle, Edwards, Doyle, and a cast of many others

 

Outside of the top 6 (and possibly Edwards) most of the other guys can end up anywhere from making the team, to the PS, to playing elsewhere or nowhere all together. I don't see it happening because they love his versatility, but if someone like Edwards shows well, does that lead to "Ryan Trade Bates?" 

 

For those keeping track, that's 16 spots I have set in stone. Another 3 set to "near lock" for 19 roster spots claimed. On to the defense!

 

DL: Groot, Floyd, Von, Jones, Oliver, Ford, Lawson, AJE, Phillips, Settle, Boogie, Ray, Ankou, Kingsley, "the rest"

 

Insert token "depending on if Von starts on PUP" comment here. The ones I have highlighted as locks are pretty set in stone. I do have AJE (and am prepared to defend) as a near lock due to his progression as a pass rusher last year. I think Phillips is "close" to being a lock pending on health. Talent wise I question if Settle can make it, then look at his contract and realize Buffalo would gain almost nothing financially by letting him go. Can Ray/Boogie push Lawson for a spot? That's going to be a battle to see in the games. 

 

LB: Matt Milano, Dodson, Williams, Bernard, Spector, Matakevich, Klein, Howard

 

Milano is a no brainer. Williams as well due to being a day 2 pick this year. I believe even if Dodson loses the MLB battle, he makes it for experience alone. Eye rolls around for Matakevich, I know. Bernard and Spector add depth and can contribute on ST. Klein I believe will be PS bound if he chooses to continue to play.

 

CB: White, Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Lewis, Neal, Ingram, Austin, Brown

 

Another deep group. I realize Lewis is covering Safety as well. Where he's listed in my view is just book keeping as he will offer depth at both spots. For me Neal was the closest "near lock" to being a bolded lock. I know some will disagree on both sides and opinions range from him being a pivotal part of the team to "he sucks". 

 

S: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin, Marlowe, Anderson, Mayden

 

Our top 3 are unquestionably making it. After that a lot comes into play. Will the Bills value Marlowe for his experience? Hamlin for his upside? A sleeper here is the forgotten Anderson who the Bills signed very early in the off-season and may offer the best ST coverage of the group.

 

ST: Ferguson, Bass, Martin

 

All locks. However, don't be surprised if Ferguson is released at initial cuts to open a spot if they need to get someone through to IR and brought back right after. Procedure move.

 

By my totals defense and ST rings up:

20 spots locked in

8 spots "near locks"

 

Grand total of:

36 roster locks

11 near locks

 

 For a total of 47 spots claimed or close to it. 

 

Sorry this was long and rambling. I feel I was perhaps a bit too stingy handing out "locks" So what say you, Mafia? What did I get wrong? 

 

I always enjoy posts like this re: personnel and roster projections. Cool that you hit the 47 number; I think Barkley sticks due to the new 3rd QB rule.

[jkeerie]

In the past we've carried 5 RBs (including Gilliam) due to Taiwan Jones on Special Teams.  It wouldn't surprise me if they keep 7 WRs for the same reason this year and only 4 RBs.

[John from Riverside]

Harti is absolutely a lock but I do appreciate the effort here

[Kwai San]

4 hours ago, HiMark said:

 

Quessenberry (Sorry, Doyle)

 

 Yer picking Q over Doyle????  Seriously????  SMFH......someone needs to convince me of this move......Q SUCKS!!!!

[RyanC883]

how has Shorter looked?   Like his size and speed combo, know almost nothing else.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, jkeerie said:

In the past we've carried 5 RBs (including Gilliam) due to Taiwan Jones on Special Teams.  It wouldn't surprise me if they keep 7 WRs for the same reason this year and only 4 RBs.

It will definitely be interesting to see what the roster make up is this year for sure.

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Harti is absolutely a lock but I do appreciate the effort here

You're not wrong. I'm certain on Brandon Beane's chart (which is the only one that matters lol) he's locked in. I haven't seen him play much and didn't make it out to SJF. For me, I need to see him get some snaps before he gets the lock lol.

[Richard Noggin]

Add to Locks: Harty, Settle, Bernard.

 

Remove from Locks: Murray.

 

Still leaves 4 spots to fill, with a need for at least 1 QB, 1 or 2 OTs, 1 S, 1 DE, and at least 1 or 2 WR (and VERY probably 1 TE). Also probably another RB (depends if Gilliam IS definitely a lock like we both think he is, as he tweens RB/TE). Which all essentially means I'm definitely very wrong about some of my picks.

 

Really challenging year for roster decisions. A lot of bottom 3rd roster talent that WILL get scooped. I actually HATE trying to either predict what they'll do and/or IMAGINE what I'd do. And I normally find this to be one of the most fascinating parts of NFL football. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Richard Noggin

[JoPoy88]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

With the Bills first preseason game fast approaching I thought I'd take a look at where I see the roster at before the games take place. Bolded are in my view locks for the roster. Italicized are players that are "near locks" in my estimation. Looking over the roster spot by spot it strikes me that we are going to be letting quite a handful of really talented players go pretty soon. Some of these guys could have started for this franchise even 4-5 short years ago. Problems of having a deep roster.

 

QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

 

Earlier in the off-season I viewed Kyle Allen as a lock. Now? Not quite sure. Sounds like he may be playing himself out of a job. One of Kyle or Barkley will likely make the roster as the backup (unless Beane makes a move) the other could be PS bound.

 

RB: James Cook, Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam, Evans, Mims

 

Before the Hines injury I had Murray as a possible PS placeholder. Now, I believe he's destined for the TJ Yeldon role unless injury strikes. Gilliam makes it easily as well. Evans and Mims in my view are fighting for a PS role. 

 

WR: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sheffield, Harty, Shorter, Shakir, Isabella, Shavers, Coulter, Patmon, Johnson.

 

Expecting some push back at this position. Sheffield is a lock in my eyes due to what sounds like a solid camp, Josh's admiration for him and the fact he plays ST. Shakir is a guy that I think needs to show something in PS games. Could one of Isabella, Shavers or Coulter push the former 5th rounder off the roster? Not likely but a strong showing by one of them and continued drops by Shakir may crack open the door.

 

TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Morris, Sternberger, Wilson

 

Buffalo finds itself in rare territory here. For decades we couldn't find a decent TE...now it would seem we have 2. That moves the position battle down the line to TE3. I give the edge here to Morris but Sternberger and Wilson have a shot with at least one of them headed to a possible PS spot if they are chopped.

 

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Bates, Brown, Torrence, Quessenberry, Shell, Doyle, Edwards, Doyle, and a cast of many others

 

Outside of the top 6 (and possibly Edwards) most of the other guys can end up anywhere from making the team, to the PS, to playing elsewhere or nowhere all together. I don't see it happening because they love his versatility, but if someone like Edwards shows well, does that lead to "Ryan Trade Bates?" 

 

For those keeping track, that's 16 spots I have set in stone. Another 3 set to "near lock" for 19 roster spots claimed. On to the defense!

 

DL: Groot, Floyd, Von, Jones, Oliver, Ford, Lawson, AJE, Phillips, Settle, Boogie, Ray, Ankou, Kingsley, "the rest"

 

Insert token "depending on if Von starts on PUP" comment here. The ones I have highlighted as locks are pretty set in stone. I do have AJE (and am prepared to defend) as a near lock due to his progression as a pass rusher last year. I think Phillips is "close" to being a lock pending on health. Talent wise I question if Settle can make it, then look at his contract and realize Buffalo would gain almost nothing financially by letting him go. Can Ray/Boogie push Lawson for a spot? That's going to be a battle to see in the games. 

 

LB: Matt Milano, Dodson, Williams, Bernard, Spector, Matakevich, Klein, Howard

 

Milano is a no brainer. Williams as well due to being a day 2 pick this year. I believe even if Dodson loses the MLB battle, he makes it for experience alone. Eye rolls around for Matakevich, I know. Bernard and Spector add depth and can contribute on ST. Klein I believe will be PS bound if he chooses to continue to play.

 

CB: White, Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Lewis, Neal, Ingram, Austin, Brown

 

Another deep group. I realize Lewis is covering Safety as well. Where he's listed in my view is just book keeping as he will offer depth at both spots. For me Neal was the closest "near lock" to being a bolded lock. I know some will disagree on both sides and opinions range from him being a pivotal part of the team to "he sucks". 

 

S: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin, Marlowe, Anderson, Mayden

 

Our top 3 are unquestionably making it. After that a lot comes into play. Will the Bills value Marlowe for his experience? Hamlin for his upside? A sleeper here is the forgotten Anderson who the Bills signed very early in the off-season and may offer the best ST coverage of the group.

 

ST: Ferguson, Bass, Martin

 

All locks. However, don't be surprised if Ferguson is released at initial cuts to open a spot if they need to get someone through to IR and brought back right after. Procedure move.

 

By my totals defense and ST rings up:

20 spots locked in

8 spots "near locks"

 

Grand total of:

36 roster locks

11 near locks

 

 For a total of 47 spots claimed or close to it. 

 

Sorry this was long and rambling. I feel I was perhaps a bit too stingy handing out "locks" So what say you, Mafia? What did I get wrong? 

 

Good first attempt - looks pretty reasonable to me although just reading the tea leaves from beat reports and how he played (at times) last year I think AJE is a solid lock.

[Richard Noggin]

13 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Good first attempt - looks pretty reasonable to me although just reading the tea leaves from beat reports and how he played (at times) last year I think AJE is a solid lock.

 

On top of currently solid reports and historical improvement rightly working in AJE's favor, Beane seems to lean into the upside of guys going into contract years. 

 

Only ways I'd imagine Epenesa NOT on the 53 are injury or trade. 

 

And while I'm not privy to the internal team projections for Basham, from my limited perspective I'd want Lawson on the squad over him this season (if I had to choose between them). Would definitely attempt to recoup a late-round pick for Boogie and get Ray and/or Jonathon on the PS.

 

It's a puzzle with too many pieces (at the outer fringes). 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It will definitely be interesting to see what the roster make up is this year for sure.

You're not wrong. I'm certain on Brandon Beane's chart (which is the only one that matters lol) he's locked in. I haven't seen him play much and didn't make it out to SJF. For me, I need to see him get some snaps before he gets the lock lol.

Don’t you have Sherfield as a lock? I think that they are both locks but if only one of the two were to make the team it is Harty. Contracts say a lot about who is a lock vs. who is competing for a spot. Latavius Murray was (and maybe still is) competing for a spot. Deonte Harty is playing meaningful snaps. That was determined long before SJF.

[Big Turk]

12 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:

I have hard nothing about Shaq Lawson this summer: what is going on with him?

I always enjoy posts like this re: personnel and roster projections. Cool that you hit the 47 number; I think Barkley sticks due to the new 3rd QB rule.

 

I think Lawson is safe because he plays a role nobody else really does, other than perhaps Groot, which is being a very solid run defender and edge setter.

[StHustle]

Lawson is a lock. Gets too many first team reps to be a true cut candidate. I see Shane Ray as a practice squad lock who needs to show more over time to possibly push Boogie or whoever the 5th/6th DE is off the roster. However if he absolutely kills it in the preseason this could easily change. I thing Boogie clears waivers and PS bound in that case.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Don’t you have Sherfield as a lock? I think that they are both locks but if only one of the two were to make the team it is Harty. Contracts say a lot about who is a lock vs. who is competing for a spot. Latavius Murray was (and maybe still is) competing for a spot. Deonte Harty is playing meaningful snaps. That was determined long before SJF.

I do have Sherfield as a lock, however I am much more familiar with him. I fully understand what his contract situation looks like. And as I acknowledged, that likely locks him in on Beane's roster. Though some may have debated that OJ Howard's fresh and mostly guaranteed contract would have locked him in last year. 

[ChanticleerBillsFan]

I like this exercise. I would add locks to AJE, Harty, and Bernard. 
 

I wouldn’t have Murray as a lock. I see him as PS and security for Damien. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by ChanticleerBillsFan

[HiMark]

10 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 Yer picking Q over Doyle????  Seriously????  SMFH......someone needs to convince me of this move......Q SUCKS!!!!

I don't disagree about Q, I just don't see a better option yet.  Doyle is much diminished after his ACL injury.  Keep an eye on Richard Gouraige, our other young hope.

[BuffaloRebound]

Seems like there’s still a glaring hole at WR. Rest of roster except maybe OT is deep, talented, and championship caliber.   Keeping my eye on Mike Evans.  Tampa is going nowhere and he’s on last year of his deal.  Could see him being dealt to a contender.  Think he’s got an elite year or 2 left in him.  

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do have Sherfield as a lock, however I am much more familiar with him. I fully understand what his contract situation looks like. And as I acknowledged, that likely locks him in on Beane's roster. Though some may have debated that OJ Howard's fresh and mostly guaranteed contract would have locked him in last year. 

Fair point on Howard (although he had almost $2m less guaranteed than Harty). Harty also is the ONLY player on the roster with his skill set (now that Hines is hurt). That makes him even safer. Howard was brought here to backup Knox, block some and play a little 12 personnel. Harty was brought here to make big plays. 

 

There is/was 1.5 WR slots open heading to camp. Diggs, Davis and Harty were 100% in. Sherfield was probably 98% in. Shakir is the 1/2 and he was probably like 80% to make the team. If he was a disaster he COULD have been cut or traded. He hasn’t had a great camp but almost certainly will make the roster. That leaves 1 spot for: Shorter, Shavers, Isabella, etc…

 

The RB was a different situation. Cook and Harris were locks. Gilliam is very likely. Hines was also close to a lock pre-injury. Murray was the Duke Johnson or Mike Tolbert “veteran insurance.” He probably wasn’t making the team before the Hines injury. He still is not a lock though. He has a redundant skill set with Harris, who is ahead of him on the depth chart. It sounds like Murray is having a pretty good camp so he probably does make it. They COULD though turn their attention to Zeke, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, etc… in which case Murray is out. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair point on Howard (although he had almost $2m less guaranteed than Harty). Harty also is the ONLY player on the roster with his skill set (now that Hines is hurt). That makes him even safer. Howard was brought here to backup Knox, block some and play a little 12 personnel. Harty was brought here to make big plays. 

 

There is/was 1.5 WR slots open heading to camp. Diggs, Davis and Harty were 100% in. Sherfield was probably 98% in. Shakir is the 1/2 and he was probably like 80% to make the team. If he was a disaster he COULD have been cut or traded. He hasn’t had a great camp but almost certainly will make the roster. That leaves 1 spot for: Shorter, Shavers, Isabella, etc…

 

The RB was a different situation. Cook and Harris were locks. Gilliam is very likely. Hines was also close to a lock pre-injury. Murray was the Duke Johnson or Mike Tolbert “veteran insurance.” He probably wasn’t making the team before the Hines injury. He still is not a lock though. He has a redundant skill set with Harris, who is ahead of him on the depth chart. It sounds like Murray is having a pretty good camp so he probably does make it. They COULD though turn their attention to Zeke, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, etc… in which case Murray is out. 

 

Agree with all this. Howard also sucked in camp. Harty might not have flashed as much as they hoped yet but he hasn't sucked from what I have heard?

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair point on Howard (although he had almost $2m less guaranteed than Harty). Harty also is the ONLY player on the roster with his skill set (now that Hines is hurt). That makes him even safer. Howard was brought here to backup Knox, block some and play a little 12 personnel. Harty was brought here to make big plays. 

 

There is/was 1.5 WR slots open heading to camp. Diggs, Davis and Harty were 100% in. Sherfield was probably 98% in. Shakir is the 1/2 and he was probably like 80% to make the team. If he was a disaster he COULD have been cut or traded. He hasn’t had a great camp but almost certainly will make the roster. That leaves 1 spot for: Shorter, Shavers, Isabella, etc…

 

The RB was a different situation. Cook and Harris were locks. Gilliam is very likely. Hines was also close to a lock pre-injury. Murray was the Duke Johnson or Mike Tolbert “veteran insurance.” He probably wasn’t making the team before the Hines injury. He still is not a lock though. He has a redundant skill set with Harris, who is ahead of him on the depth chart. It sounds like Murray is having a pretty good camp so he probably does make it. They COULD though turn their attention to Zeke, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, etc… in which case Murray is out. 

Some really nice points made here. To offer my train of thought as to why Murray is a lock.

 

Though they could turn their attention to a Zeke or Hunt, had they wanted them they would have targeted them when they signed Murray. To my knowledge, they did not. Cook wasn't on the market then, however if the reports of what he's been offered by other teams is accurate, I don't see the Bills jumping in late to the party to go after him. 

 

Buffalo has almost always gone with a pure "power runner" on the roster when they could get one. As you bring up Tolbert let's not forget Frank Gore and Chris Ivory. That's the mold Murray fits to me. A lot is made of Harris as a power runner and he can run it between the tackles...but he's more of a Singletary with a speed burst to me. Unless Mims or Evans can make it so they can't exposed them to the waiver wire Murray has a spot as that 3rd back inactive on game days IMO. 

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Some really nice points made here. To offer my train of thought as to why Murray is a lock.

 

Though they could turn their attention to a Zeke or Hunt, had they wanted them they would have targeted them when they signed Murray. To my knowledge, they did not. Cook wasn't on the market then, however if the reports of what he's been offered by other teams is accurate, I don't see the Bills jumping in late to the party to go after him. 

 

Buffalo has almost always gone with a pure "power runner" on the roster when they could get one. As you bring up Tolbert let's not forget Frank Gore and Chris Ivory. That's the mold Murray fits to me. A lot is made of Harris as a power runner and he can run it between the tackles...but he's more of a Singletary with a speed burst to me. Unless Mims or Evans can make it so they can't exposed them to the waiver wire Murray has a spot as that 3rd back inactive on game days IMO. 

Those guys cost more than Murray (Fournette too). If you asked Beane, “would you rather Zeke or Murray at the same price” the answer would be Zeke. He’s lost a step but still the superior back. He just had/has a higher price tag. As we are into camp their prices potentially drop. 

I do agree though that Murray makes the team at this point. Before the Hines injury he was likely headed for our practice squad. Now he likely makes the team (unless one of those other guys wants to join a contender on the cheap). Murray is a guy that has been cut recently and on a practice squad as recently as last year. I just can’t put a guy from the Saints practice squad as a lock on this team.

[stevewin]

Morris was consistently good the practices I saw - and I think they love him.  I could even see him taking Gilliam's hybrid role.

 

I think Barkley is a lock for the PS - he had offers to sign with other teams last year which woud have started with vet min 1.2M but chose to stay with the Bills on the PS for a vet max 358,200.  I think Beane signs another backup to replace K Allen if he continues to play in preseason like he has in camp.

 

Also agree Murray is a guy you put on PS as insurance for Harris.  It's nice to be in the position as SB contenders and good culture that vets will stay for less.

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

49 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Morris was consistently good the practices I saw - and I think they love him.  I could even see him taking Gilliam's hybrid role.

 

I think Barkley is a lock for the PS - he had offers to sign with other teams last year which woud have started with vet min 1.2M but chose to stay with the Bills on the PS for a vet max 358,200.  I think Beane signs another backup to replace K Allen if he continues to play in preseason like he has in camp.

 

Also agree Murray is a guy you put on PS as insurance for Harris.  It's nice to be in the position as SB contenders and good culture that vets will stay for less.

 

 

The problem with signing another backup QB at this point is they are very far behind in learning the offense Unless someone like Keenum who is already somewhat familiar with the offense comes available, I don't see it. QBs aren't just plug and play. If Kyle plays his way off the roster, then Barkley would be the likely backup to start the season IMO.  Then we would see someone else (or maybe Kyle Allen) brought to the PS.

 

I actually had Murray as a PS candidate after we signed him and got HAMMERED for suggesting it. That's where I had him until the Hines injury as well. Problem with having him on the PS is...who takes that spot? I don't see Buffalo entering the season with just 2 true RBs on the 53. I think we see 3 with 1 inactive on game day. So who takes the job from Murray? Mims the rookie or Evans? Evans offers some return ability but reports are he's worked less with ST over the last few practices. Either Mims or Evans are perfect to slip into the PS...where Murray could easily get nabbed... especially if a team suffers injury to the RB position in preseason. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[jkeerie]

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/buffalo-bills-full-depth-chart-2023-preseason-nfl/

 

Very interesting.

Edited August 8, 2023 by jkeerie

[BuffaloBillyG]

Revised Roster Projection After 2 preseason games. Bold means locked in. Italicized indicates in the conversation for a spot. Normal type are the guys on the outside looking in IMO. Here we go.

 

QB: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley

 

Changes: Kyle Allen locked in.

 

After stumbling most of TC and preseason week 1, it appears that Kyle Allen is setting in as QB2. This has just as much to do with his play against the Steelers as it does with Barkley fumbling (literally) his opportunity away. This is still a position that is weak outside Josh. 

 

RB: James Cook, Latavius Murray, Reggie Gilliam, Jordan Mims, Damien Harris, Evans

 

Changes: Harris unlocked. Mims in the conversation.

 

The door is, IMO creaked open. Damien Harris and his sore knee has given opportunity to the rest of the field and I believe they are moving past him. Murray has shown good burst. I believe he can be Cook's handcuff. Evans has ability to play ST as well as RB. And UDFA Jordan Mims has shown very well IMO. Pending on the knee outlook, Harris may find himself without a seat when the music stops. 

 

WR: Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Harty, Shorter, Shakir, Isabella, Shavers, Coulter, Patmon, Johnson.

 

Changes: Locked in both Harty and Shorter

 

In my original projection I didn't have Harty locked because I wanted to see his usage first. Saw it last night and it seemed at first look that he led 1st team slot snaps. That's what I wanted to see. Shorter had a nice game last night and, though he hasn't flashed for me on ST I believe he has done enough to earn a spot. Ultimately, I expect the final WR spot to come down to Shakir or Isabella. 

 

TE: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, Morris, Sternberger, Wilson

 

Changes: Morris with the slant..

 

Knox and Kincaid are surefire locked in. Right now I believe Morris leads the field for TE3. 

 

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Bates, Brown, Torrence, Quessenberry,  Edwards, Van Demark and a cast of many others

 

Changes: Shell and Doyle removed. Quess locked in. Van Demark has entered the conversation.

 

Let me start by saying I am not a fan of Quess's play. Good dude. Good story. But I was hoping he would be upgraded. With Doyle looking done and Shell walking away, I believe that locks him in as the experienced swing T. Edwards hasn't looked bad and I expect him to make the team. Maybe some looks at RT may be in order? Speaking of tackles..this Van Demark has impressed. I expect Buffalo to sign someone this week to take Doyle's spot.

 

In my original projection I had 16 locks...that number is now at 19. Also have 6 near lock/in the hunt spots being possible.. On to the defense!

 

DL: Groot, Floyd, Von, Jones, Oliver, Lawson, AJE, Boogie, Phillips, Settle, Ford, Ray, Ankou, Kingsley, "the rest"

 

Changes: Ford from lock to "outside looking in" He's been that bad. Lawson, AJE and Boogie to me are locked.

 

 

Insert token "depending on if Von starts on PUP" comment here. Is it just me or has Boogie actually flashed more than AJE this preseason? I can still see a trade out of this group. Phillips coming back to health is needed because Poona looks to have been a complete flop. Not sure he makes it at this point.

 

LB: Matt Milano, Williams, Bernard, Matakevich, Klein, Dodson, Spector, Howard

 

Changes: Bernard, Klein, Matakevich locked in. Dodson is vulnerable.

 

Ultimately, I expect them to keep Dodson. Hard to justify him going from leader at MLB to off the roster completely. However, if one were to go about it under McDermott it would take lack of discipline both on the practice field and matching that with poor play in the game. TDot accomplished both this week playing late in the 4th quarter. 

 

CB: White, Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Lewis, Neal, Ingram, Austin, Brown

 

Changes: Locked in Lewis and Neal.

 

This group is pretty straight forward. Neal looked pretty good against the Steelers at CB as well.

 

S: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin, Marlowe, Anderson, Mayden

 

Changes: Hamlin locked in.

 

Marlowe has been pretty invisible to me in the first 2 games while Hamlin (who did have a few rough reps yesterday) has played physical and looks to be back to himself.

 

ST: Ferguson, Bass, Martin

 

Changes: NONE

 

All locks. However, don't be surprised if Ferguson is released at initial cuts to open a spot if they need to get someone through to IR and brought back right after. Procedure move.

 

That's 27 defense/ST locks I have.

 

Grand total of:

46 roster locks

10 guys in the conversation for the final 7 spots.

 

[Dr. Who]

34 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Revised Roster Projection After 2 preseason games. Bold means locked in. Italicized indicates in the conversation for a spot. Normal type are the guys on the outside looking in IMO.

Clipped the quote for brevity. I generally like your posts and the reasoning here is plausible. Personally, I would not keep Quessenberry. I'm not convinced he's a lock. I would add Alec Anderson to the oline names with a shot to make the team. Jordan Mims definitely in play at RB. I'd like to see Ankou and Kingsley get consideration at DT. I hope Howard gets some meaningful snaps in the third preseason game at LB. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Clipped the quote for brevity. I generally like your posts and the reasoning here is plausible. Personally, I would not keep Quessenberry. I'm not convinced he's a lock. I would add Alec Anderson to the oline names with a shot to make the team. Jordan Mims definitely in play at RB. I'd like to see Ankou and Kingsley get consideration at DT. I hope Howard gets some meaningful snaps in the third preseason game at LB. 

Thank you! 

 

On Quess- I would agree that he shouldn't be a lock. Except that we just lost 2 OTs and he has experience in the system. I think Anderson has a solid chance at a PS spot. 

 

Ankou and Kingsley are 2 guys I like. I think they are up and coming and would hate to lose them. Unfortunately, I think it becomes a numbers game for one if not both. 

 

I've liked what I've seen of Howard as well. Has a nose for the ball. And Mims is really coming on. He's a guy I didn't know a lot about but was put onto by @GunnerBill. Did some bookwork on him myself and he's very impressive to me. I think he should have a real shot to make it.