Ed Oliver big extension

[Royale with Cheese]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence. 

 

I know I've came to you multiple times on Ed because I've been a little disappointed in his production.

 

But between you and @MrEpsYtown, I trust your analysis and now am pro-Ed on this contract.  I watched the Cover 1 breakdown and I'm starting to see what you guys are seeing in his game.  I still want more splash plays but I'm not uncomfortable with him anymore.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

It’s amazing how well he does analytically. They need to extend Jones.
 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[HappyDays]

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

The devil is ALWAYS in the details. 

Again and again, people form kneejerk reactions to the first contract terms announced, and those ALWAYS come from the agent and are phrased in the way that seems most impressive for their client.

Now that we see the details of this particular contract, it makes a great deal more sense for the Bills than it may first have appeared. Well structured, and not particularly limiting -- certainly not crippling -- in any future years, should they decide to move on.

Well done, Beane, Overdorf, and crew.

[John from Riverside]

Here’s to ed making this contract look like a bargain

[HappyDays]

A lot of consternation came from the initial report that we gave him $45 million guaranteed. But it appears that is not actually true. Unless I'm missing something this is a very team friendly deal and the initial report was a straight up lie.

[BillsVet]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

That's what we are talking about here with Oliver.    He has had a few great games but has yet to either play the snaps of.....or produce numbers that resemble a top DT.    I do agree that the floor needs to become AT LEAST 70% of the snaps......you can't be running in liabilities like Jordan Phillips or Brandin Bryant for 45% of the damn snaps and paying Ed $17M.   But that 70% is like 200 more snaps than he played just last season(presuming he plays 17).   It's a lot easier said than done.........and with those snaps he needs to add more than 1-2 sacks of production.

 

He simply has to become a MUCH better player.    That's generally not how these contracts are earned.

 

I have never quite understood the thought process on how Oliver is used.     

 

It would make sense to me if he's hurt why the snap count is what it is despite being a top-10 pick.  I'm not buying that it's completely driven by that.  I suspect it's also in part a result of McD's DL rotational mindset.  

 

And if that's the case, spending top picks on DT's who will be used this way seems mis-aligned.  I'd expect the better DL to be on the field if they're relatively healthy, which down the stretch is harder.  37 snaps per game and 54-60% over a season on contract terms he signed for seems like a mis-use of resources.   

[nucci]

so it could be a 1 year deal.

[HappyDays]

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So it's like two one year deals

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Basically was just a cap clearing deal that doesn’t impact the future too much.

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

A lot of consternation came from the initial report that we gave him $45 million guaranteed. But it appears that is not actually true. Unless I'm missing something this is a very team friendly deal and the initial report was a straight up lie.

 

NFL contracts infuriate me. "Fully" guarantee is redundant. If the other "guarantees" are not 100% for sure going to happen then they aren't guarantees are they?

 

To get back on topic for Oliver, based on initial reports I thought this was a rather bad contract with 45 mil guaranteed. With "fully" guaranteed money of only 24 mil this is actually a good deal. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Basically was just a cap clearing deal that doesn’t impact the future too much.

 

 

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

[BarleyNY]

36 minutes ago, nucci said:

so it could be a 1 year deal.

 

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So it's like two one year deals

 

It’s effectively a 3 year, $48.4M deal with two optional years after that. The outs after this year and next would be expensive, but the offsets would help if we had to get out early. It’s an overpay, but I very much like the structure. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

I’m still waiting for the Jones extension which would also clear about $5 million in cap.

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So it's like two one year deals

 

That $20.75m cap hit in 2025 is the big decision IMO. If he isn't living up to his contract they can cut him for $8.85m in dead cap that year. Not a bad risk/reward.

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

I know that's important and you need to fill a roster

 

I like this a little better now but still have concerns...not about Oliver per se because he's a good player, more the philosophy that these types of deals for his caliber of player represents

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

 

 

Like I said.......he's averaged just a bit under 56% and played 60% of the snaps IN THE GAMES HE DIDN'T MISS ENTIRELY last season(he missed 3 entirely).   He's not being unfairly judged because of injury he actually only played around 50% of the teams total defensive snaps last year.

 

And 70% of snaps played isn't any kind of standard.......it's something someone in this thread made up as a figure they think is a gold standard.

 

The standard of the best DT's 80%+ snaps OR outrageous production on less than 80% of snaps.

 

 The 3 DT's picked right after Ed Oliver all played OVER 80% of the snaps last season and had a whopping 300-400+ more snaps than Ed's feeble 527.  

 

Quinnen Williams is used more like Ed Oliver and only played 690 snaps last year but he put up 12 sacks and 28 QB hits to Ed's meager 2.5 sacks and 14 QB hits.    

 

Ed's something of a taint.    He aint an every down, high production DT like his draft classmates Wilkins, Lawrence or Simmons........but his actual production is also pathetic compared to guys like Quinnen or Hargrave who play less than 80% but do it in a dominant fashion.

 

But Ed is being paid second only to Aaron Donald on a per snap basis based on his career average of 570 snaps per season(which forgives his particularly low snap counts last season to an extent).

 

 Oliver gets a few more hits on the QB than Poona Ford but his sack and tackle production is very much like $2M Poona Ford in recent years.    Poona also plays about mid 50% of his teams snaps but he also plays a lot more 1T or NT position where he gets less chances to shoot gaps and has more run responsibility than Ed Oliver typically does.    

 

This Oliver contract is a MASSIVE overpay based on what Oliver has shown so far.    That's the bottom line.   Maybe he is an instance where a player gets paid by a team anticipating a huge improvement in his play and he actually does that.   He's talented so maybe.   But based on what he's done it's a terrible deal.