Ed Oliver big extension

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I missed those, stand corrected @PrimeTime101you were right about him lining up at 1tech

Go to 7.15 of your video 

1 tech

 

[PrimeTime101]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I missed those, stand corrected @PrimeTime101you were right about him lining up at 1tech

now they needed to put bodies on him because he is talented. IMAGINE a one tech next to him with von on one side and Floyde on the other. You cant double team von, ed, a one tech and floyd at the same time. So the point goes he needs to win the one on one battles moving forward and his production will go sky high. Thanks for recognizing it  

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Again, like I said at the very start (which you chose not to address), Beane has a very good track record on extensions.  He's hit on a lot.  

 

Nothing wrong with what you said/believe, but it's just your opinion.  I have my opinion on what the Bills/Beane see in Ed....and I like him as a player, and much better than the alternative of using a high pick next year or potentially more $s to chase a FA.  

 

Re: Gabe, sure you can call it an analogy.  Again, let's see what our GM decides to do longterm with him.  He's been vocal and clear on what he thinks of both Ed's and Gabes future here.  One down, we'll see if Beane follows through with the second.

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

Fair enough.

 

Like I mentioned before, I tend to agree with alot of your takes, and your points are well stated above.  Thanks for the info.

 

I'm seeing something different with Ed and like him at that $$ number, as opposed to potential alternatives next year.  But can understand your opinion and where you stand.

[PrimeTime101]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

I don’t get the sense people hate him. It's mostly unrealized anticipation and disappointment and that has as much to do with his draft position as it does his performance.  

I hated Murphy.  Edmunds was never in my hate category but I just refused to buy into the notion he was a difference maker in any way. 

[Doc Brown]

10 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. Most people will know that I was a massive Edmunds detractor, but given the choice of Edmunds vs the drought-era scrubfest we're going into camp with, give me Edmunds all day.

When it comes to players that will actually make an impact in January and February. I honestly don't think we've improved, unless 2-3 guys like Shakir, Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Elam, Oliver have all-pro type breakout years and guys like White, Poyer, Hyde, Miller return to previous all-pro level form.

If I'm being honest, I don't see that happening for Basham, Rousseau, Cook, Oliver, White, Hyde, or Miller this year. I think we'll get good, not great production. I just don't see enough talent in the pipeline that's going to push us over Cinci and KC. Kincaid is a really cool prospect, but he was a luxury pick if you're trying to win this season. A veteran likely provides you with a bigger 2023 impact.

I'm not against Beane' philosophy of "not going all in", because I too think the right way to win a super bowl is to make sure you've got a shot every year like the steelers, packers, patriots and others did for almost two decades, but there comes a time where you have to look at your team and wonder if it's good enough the way it's constructed. We took the NFL's most expensive defensive line and just threw even more money at without upgrading the talent at all - rewarding a guy who isn't good enough to get the job done with an even larger share of the team's minimal resources.

I just don't see how the formula works. I'm watching what KC is doing and what Cinci is doing and I don't think our staff is even in the same league. Take away Allen, and this isn't even decent team imo.

I disagree that 5 of the 6 positions I said we improved at was just adding depth.  I'd say we're now better at 6 of 7 starting positions I mentioned (TE2, LG, DT, DE, WR3, RB) with the signing of Floyd.  I'll grant you that we only added depth at safety. Just simplifying for one on one comparisons with everyone else coming back at these positions....

 

Kincaid>Morris, McGovern>Saffold, Ford>Settle, Floyd>Basham, Harty>McKenzie, Harris>Singletary

 

I understand your point that we're relying on veterans to regain their previous form and young players to play to their full potential at certain positions.  However, what's the alternative?  Who would you have drafted instead of Kincaid that would guarantee us a better player at a premier position?  Jack Campbell was off the board.  Who would you have signed at safety that would be an upgrade over Poyer?

 

There's definitely a case to be made that it would've been smarter to re-sign Edmunds and let Oliver play out his final year of his contract.  That's fair and I can see both sides to that argument.  The problem I had with your post is the suggestion that Beane is tanking this season on purpose despite no evidence at all to suggest he is.  There's nothing he's done this offseason that points to that even if you disagree with his team building approach.

 

Edited June 6 by Doc Brown

[QCity]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

[Bill from NYC]

14 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. 
 

I agree that guard play is not "the reason" but it certainly has factored into the equation. We have a great QB who far too often had to run for his life, and took too many hits. This not only hurt us in terms of getting a ring, Josh getting punished as such is a huge long term detriment to the franchise. 

 

It is an offensive league. We all know this. Good guard play is essential for the Bills. I do also agree that a rookie and a journeyman are no real guarantee of improvement, but we had to start somewhere. The amount of resources that McDermott devotes to the defensive side is staggering. I hope that next season he will do the same with offensive linemen and wide receivers. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

Intentionally misrepresenting opponents’ positions is called the Straw Man Fallacy. That and the Appeal to Authority Fallacy are super popular here. In this particular instance it is difficult to justify the size of extension Oliver got. It’s an obvious overpay even if it’s no worse than the Star contract. At least Oliver is a good player. There just aren’t a lot of sexy arguments for either side though. But if someone wants to pretend that some Bills fans hate Oliver, then that’s spicy. And it’s easy for someone to pretend to take the high ground. 

Edited June 6 by BarleyNY

[SoCal Deek]

One thing I know for sure is that Beane knows one heck of a lot more about where the Bills are in relation to the Cap both now and in the years to come than anyone on this Message Board. It’s just one of the reasons why I stay away from that topic. It’s way too complicated and we really have no idea what other chess moves are in the offing. So…I’m guessing there’s more to the Oliver extension than most of us think or know. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Breakdown 

 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Breakdown 

 

 

 

Good deal, the thought was it would free between 5-7 mil in space for this year 

[nedboy7]

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

[Maine-iac]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

Edited June 6 by Maine-iac

[BuffaloRebound]

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

[TBBills Fan]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

 

 

I certainly don't miss the old "cash to the cap" strategy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence.