Ed Oliver big extension

[Airseven]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

Didn't Saffold make the Pro Bowl ?

Pro Bowl is sort of like winning a Grammy these days - entirely meaningless.

 

All Pro is still a worthy recognition.

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Simply put.. to much cup half empty additude. 

 

Maybe, I know that I'm optimistic about the play of the offense this season.  As I've said, I can see our offense being the best that the franchise has ever had.  

 

But if Dorsey cannot run it effectively that's not going to happen.  Trying to guess what's going to happen there is anyone's guess.  

 

Otherwise, there are plenty of reasons for concern that we're all aware of.  The results of the season will answer quite a few questions IMHO.  I have a hunch that the discussions here 6 months from now or in January are going to be a whole lot different than they now are.  Again, we'll see.  Nothing to lose one's mind over.  LOL  

 

 

4 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Well, as an extension, the new deal kicks in after the 2023 season. 

 

The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season.  Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed.  It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now.  

 

Possibly to sign Hopkins?  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Isn't Hargreaves getting over 21 mil per season and over 80 mil for the life of the deal?  Oliver's deal (according to ESPN) works out to 15.75 mil per season.  It seems like they are getting paid accordingly.

 

Yeah the point is that they are being paid almost exactly the same.......$30,000 per snap played.

 

Hargrave played 715 snaps per season in Philly in his breakout seasons the past two years that got him that big contract.........and totaled 18.5 sacks and 123 tackles.

 

Ed's leadup to earning the same pay per play?   Just able to play 575 snaps per season and accumulated only 6.5 sacks and 75 tackles.

 

To put the snap counts in perspective.........Aaron Donald played 1,055 regular season snaps in 2021 when he earned his massive extension.

 

Christian Wilkins for the Dolphins played 955 snaps.

 

 Ed's career average of 570 snaps per season is absurdly low for a perceived frontline starting DT.      

 

What that means is you really need some QUALITY depth at DT3T to play 40% plus of the snaps when Ed is only able to post an average of just under 56% of the snaps.    

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

the biggest indicator of future performance is past performance.  I suspect that if you lined up all the fourth year veterans at every position, and ranked their most recent two years purely on production, and then four years later reranked them based on the second four years production, that except for injuries, there would be very little reranking.  Hoping players are going to improve at a faster rate than there peers is not really a strategy, 

My point is that Beane has been quite good at hitting on his extension decicions, to-datw.  None of us are sitting in Beanes shoes, and know the ins and outs of what they think of Ed.

 

So until proven otherwise, I'm trusting Beane and team made the right call on this.  Can revisit in a few years and see if he's right.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Right lol talk about damning w faint praise

 

'This is a good deal because better players are going to get more than him' is not the best defense of roster management 😂😂

There is some validity to this. Look at Allen for a good example. 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

So until proven otherwise, I'm trusting Beane and team made the right call on this.  Can revisit in a few years and see if he's right.

 

We'll find out tomorrow or Tuesday, but I'm really starting to think that this move was made to reduce the cap hit to be able to squeeze Hopkins in.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll find out tomorrow or Tuesday, but I'm really starting to think that this move was made to reduce the cap hit to be able to squeeze Hopkins in.  

 

 

Please tell, how will we find out Monday or Tuesday, that this is a good deal for us?

 

I doubt this has anything to do with Dhop.  We're not extending a player for 4 years just to fit someone else under the cap....we don't even know yet how much Ed's 2023 cap hit changed by.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Can you list any players on the Bills other than Allen that you think have value?

 

 

I like Ed Oliver.   He's been a solid, physical DT with the talent to maybe become a star pass rusher.  I liked the pick at the time and I've often defended him to people who claim he's just average.  

 

I was really looking forward to him playing for a contract because he's proven that he can be very impactful when he's really motivated.    To me,  he is the perfect example of a walk year wonder in waiting.   I was EXPECTING something like a 10 sack season.   I think Ed has some complacency in his nature and needed a walk year  with huge consequences to learn what he is really capable of and raise his own expectations for his level of play.

 

I really don't think this is a Milano situation where a player was fine with taking a hometown discount and was already on a natural trajectory to hit his ceiling as a player.   I hope that's not the case and that Ed keeps trying to raise his game physically AND mentally(as Eric Washington was imploring).

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Please tell, how will we find out Monday or Tuesday, that this is a good deal for us?

 

Monday's when the league office reopens, that's when we'll have more detail on Oliver's contract, but also, if this was in fact done to accommodate Hopkins, one would assume that Beane had this worked out ahead of time instead of taking such a risk in mere hopes.  I'm not a huge Beane fanboy, but surely he'd do that.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I doubt this has anything to do with Dhop.  We're not extending a player for 4 years just to fit someone else under the cap....we don't even know yet how much Ed's 2023 cap hit changed by.

 

Well, OK, just going by what's been reported, as in that piece posted this morning stating plainly that Beane's been interacting personally with Hopkins and that the primary reason why a deal hasn't been struck by now is because we can't fit it in. 

 

That $45M Guaranteed is perplexing.  Only Allen, Diggs, Miller, and White got more, and Allen and Miller were on 6 year deals.  Miller got only a few million more for two more years.  They're all notably better at their positions than Oliver is.  There's little argument there.  

 

He got then again nearly 70% more than Milano and Milano's twice the player at his position than Oliver is.  

 

About 50% more than Dawkins or Knox.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5 by PBF81

[Billl]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

The rumors are that it has freed up cap space this season.  Otherwise how does one explain $45M guaranteed.  It sounds like they guaranteed him more if he'd restructure and take less now.  

 

Possibly to sign Hopkins? 

I just can't fathom signing a very average DT to a $68m deal just to free up space for Hopkins.  If that's the move and Buffalo doesn't win the title this year, Beane should be gone.

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Monday's when the league office reopens, that's when we'll have more detail on Oliver's contract, but also, if this was in fact done to accommodate Hopkins, one would assume that Beane had this worked out ahead of time instead of taking such a risk in mere hopes.  I'm not a huge Beane fanboy, but surely he'd do that.  

 

 

 

Well, OK, just going by what's been reported, as in that piece posted this morning stating plainly that Beane's been interacting personally with Hopkins and that the primary reason why a deal hasn't been struck by now is because we can't fit it in. 

 

That $45M Guaranteed is perplexing.  Only Allen, Diggs, Miller, and White got more.  They're all notably better at their positions than Oliver is.  There's little argument there.  

 

He got then again nearly 70% more than Milano and Milano's twice the player at his position than Oliver is.  

 

About 50% more than Dawkins or Knox and Dawkins.  

 

 

 

 

Yes, we should get more clarity early this week on contract parameters.  

 

My prior post was in regards to the extension, and agreeing with Beane making the right decision/amount being in-line.  Nobody will know that fate for a few years, not Monday or Tuesday this week.

 

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

IMO, Ed is slotted just where he should be, between top 10-15 AAV.  He's a disruptive player and key to our success up front/core player.  He needs to stay healthy, but we can say that about all NFL high paid contracts. 

 

Some want to debate our "rotational scheme", and if this contract aligns with value.  I'd counter by saying we have yet to see what McD plans to do with Ed.  We can certainly use him more, as he's our best 3-tech DT by far.   

 

Alternatively if we didnt have Ed past his year, we would be looking to use a high draft pick OR comparable/possibly more $$$$s on the FA market to attract a player.  No guarantees on either front.

 

So, again I think Beane made another solid decision to keep a known/very good player long term. Even if the price might be $1-2m per season high, that's not worth quibbling over.

[PBF81]

22 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

Whether you're perplexed or not it's a lot more than it typically would be for a player of Oliver's caliber.  

 

It signals that something else is up.  That's all I'm saying.  

 

I also don't think that the Hopkins thing is a reach in the least.  I'm not for it depending upon what we give up to sign him if it happens, but the fact that Beane's been recently talking to Hopkins personally, I'm pretty sure that it wasn't to plan out their extended family picnic.   

 

 

[balln]

23 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Yes, we should get more clarity early this week on contract parameters.  

 

My prior post was in regards to the extension, and agreeing with Beane making the right decision/amount being in-line.  Nobody will know that fate for a few years, not Monday or Tuesday this week.

 

I'm not perplexed by the $45m guaranteed.  It's better to directly assess comparables (ie: other top paid DT contracts), as opposed to our own players at various positions. 

 

IMO, Ed is slotted just where he should be, between top 10-15 AAV.  He's a disruptive player and key to our success up front/core player.  He needs to stay healthy, but we can say that about all NFL high paid contracts. 

 

Some want to debate our "rotational scheme", and if this contract aligns with value.  I'd counter by saying we have yet to see what McD plans to do with Ed.  We can certainly use him more, as he's our best 3-tech DT by far.   

 

Alternatively if we didnt have Ed past his year, we would be looking to use a high draft pick OR comparable/possibly more $$$$s on the FA market to attract a player.  No guarantees on either front.

 

So, again I think Beane made another solid decision to keep a known/very good player long term. Even if the price might be $1-2m per season high, that's not worth quibbling over.

What. No. He’s not disruptive. Very inconsistently as pass rusher. He’s awful against the run. He gets pushed into the LBers too often. 
 

he doesn’t play the snaps the top DTs do. 
 

utterly baffling contract - just an expensive gamble by beane 

 

 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Airseven said:

Pro Bowl is sort of like winning a Grammy these days - entirely meaningless.

 

All Pro is still a worthy recognition.

We have a few. Most have had injuries the last cpl years - Von,Poyer,Hyde,Tre 

Also Josh,Diggs,Milano.. this team is sooooo close 

[buffaloboyinATL]

15 minutes ago, balln said:

What. No. He’s not disruptive. Very inconsistently as pass rusher. He’s awful against the run. He gets pushed into the LBers too often. 
 

he doesn’t play the snaps the top DTs do. 
 

utterly baffling contract - just an expensive gamble by beane 

 

 

Yes, he is disruptive, which is why he is often double teamed. He is also not being paid like the top DT’s. This is a slightly above average contract, which will look even better once the next wave of DT’s are signed. 
 

I am perplexed as to why so many fans are (IMO) over-reacting to this contract. It is fair market value at worst, and potentially a bargain long term. 
 

 

[Dr. Who]

43 minutes ago, Billl said:

I just can't fathom signing a very average DT to a $68m deal just to free up space for Hopkins.  If that's the move and Buffalo doesn't win the title this year, Beane should be gone.

I think Ed Oliver is better than very average, though he'll have to improve to merit the contract. I doubt this move is directly tied to finding cap space to sign Hopkins, but I don't think the fan base would blame Beane if he takes a shot and it fails. Also, I suspect Beane and McDermott need to see much better post-season success in the next year or two or they may well be out regardless, so too much caution could backfire as well.  

[LABILLBACKER]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I like Ed Oliver.   He's been a solid, physical DT with the talent to maybe become a star pass rusher.  I liked the pick at the time and I've often defended him to people who claim he's just average.  

 

I was really looking forward to him playing for a contract because he's proven that he can be very impactful when he's really motivated.    To me,  he is the perfect example of a walk year wonder in waiting.   I was EXPECTING something like a 10 sack season.   I think Ed has some complacency in his nature and needed a walk year  with huge consequences to learn what he is really capable of and raise his own expectations for his level of play.

 

I really don't think this is a Milano situation where a player was fine with taking a hometown discount and was already on a natural trajectory to hit his ceiling as a player.   I hope that's not the case and that Ed keeps trying to raise his game physically AND mentally(as Eric Washington was imploring).

What's absurd is that 570 snap count.  How can he ever have an impact at such a low snap count?

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I am perplexed as to why so many fans are (IMO) over-reacting to this contract. It is fair market value at worst, and potentially a bargain long term. 

 

It's the guaranteed money.  The perspective on that is mindboggling.  Maybe not the overall contract value, again, if he continues to improve, but that $45M in Guaranteed is huge for him and what he brings.  It's also going to set a standard on the team, at least to some extent.  

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

This video made me feel much better about Oliver.  He’s paid like a solid DT which is where he’s at.  I would be upset if he was paid in the top echelon of DT’s but he’s not.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What's absurd is that 570 snap count.  How can he ever have an impact at such a low snap count?

 

He would have to become extremely efficient.

 

Maybe he will..........but expecting a huge jump in production after 4 years of being what he has been when you have already given the guy his "career" contract is very risky.