very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, 1st&ten said:

What about those expensive mouth guards ?

That they don’t even wear all the time!

 

Diggs you intermittent mouth guard wearer! I’m looking at you

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

 

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

This was supposed to be a reset year for the Chiefs and they won the whole thing. 
 

It is a huge part of my frustration with the state of the Bills roster at the moment. In a lot of years I would be much higher on the Bills than I am now. We’ve lost a lot of distance on KC at the moment. The conference runs through Arrowhead at the moment. 
 

It didn’t have to be that way.

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

 

That is the only thing you took away from that post?  Lol...I didn't say he was a focal point, but he was part of the DL rotation backing up Oliver.  And honestly, what does it matter, you are complaining about a guy who was brought back on a 1 year deal as the #4 DT behind Oliver, Jones, and Settle whose primary role would be to backup Oliver specifically.  It literally had no impact on the cap preventing us from signing or retaining any other players last year or this offseason.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is the only thing you took away from that post?  Lol...I didn't say he was a focal point, but he was part of the DL rotation backing up Oliver.  And honestly, what does it matter, you are complaining about a guy who was brought back on a 1 year deal as the #4 DT behind Oliver, Jones, and Settle whose primary role would be to backup Oliver specifically.  It literally had no impact on the cap preventing us from signing or retaining any other players last year or this offseason.  

 

Not true. I said then, before the season, that giving out three decent DT deals to Jones, Phillips and Settle rather than adding another OL or outside receiver depth was a mistake and so it proved. 

 

I took that out of the post because the other guys you mentioned - Morse, Beas, Brown and Williams I had already included (with Quinton Spain) in my list of successes. I suppose you could add vet minimum Shaq to that list too. But it is still outdone by the overpays and failures.

[CheshireCT]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

 

I would also add, Beane has also done a good job moving on from players. Most of those short deals weren't extended, and he knew to let Lawson and Philips go when they were overvalued. This year is a bit more difficult with Edmunds and Poyer.

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Great post. I came to say the same. 
 

New Orleans proved you can navigate huge amounts of negative cap space. But they also proved that the Bill will eventually come due over the course of one or multiple seasons. 
 

Ultimately the Bills have to make some moves that may make the roster worse and in 2024 KC has $85M more cap dollars than the Buffalo Bills. And no matter how much they try, they won’t be able to outspend that difference between them next off season. 

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

[newcam2012]

35 minutes ago, Success said:

 

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

Somewhat true of KC but let's not take anything away from what they did. They still went out and beat a Cinci team that thrashed the Bills. Not to mention Cinci had their way with them in previous meetings. Not to mention they beat a better Eagle team.

 

In short, quality organizations with quality coaches and quality players know how to win. That's KC from top to bottom.

 

Compare that to a Bills team.

Veach huge edge over Beane.

Reid huge edge over McD.

Spags huge edge over Fraizer.

Bienemy edge over Dorsey. Get the picture? 

 

There is talk about being too harsh on Beane. Perhaps too harsh on the coaches as well. I totally get that if you have standards to the losing ways of the past. Totally understand if you are satisfied with multiple playoff appearances. 

 

At some point, the playoff appearances need to be Super Bowl appearances. Wouldn't you agree? The Bills have absolutely squandered the last two years! There's no other way to say it or see it. Enough with the excuses and the kid gloves.

 

This organization has failed with greatness to meet its goals. It's all good though. Let's run it back again this year. What's the likely result? What a farce. One can clearly see teams are right on the backs of the Bills. Two just so happen to be in the division. Two other teams have made clear jumps past the Bills. The writing is on the wall. I'd argue that Diggs and even Allen can feel it slipping away. Their comments and attitude indicates frustration and unhappiness. That comes from disappointment and losing. 

 

The Bills brass has obviously blundered in protecting Allen and giving him weapons. Coaching and scheme is also an issue. Maybe under Dabol we have seen the best version of Allen? Dorsey certainly didn't get the best out of him? In fact, I'd agrue the opposite. 

 

Hold onto to your seat. The upcoming season is likely a bumpy road with a whole less success. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by newcam2012

[Marcus Aurelius]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

So, cap jail is kind of like Otis in Mayberry? You can just grab the key and let yourself out? 

Well I'll be a dirty bird (my mother used to say that) ... I forgot about this character! 😄

 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If you have a rich owner who is willing to spend cash now for cap relief and you have good cap management (and to be fair I think Overdorf though heavily criticised in the Ralph days has always been a good cap manager) then you can retain a lot of flexibility with your roster even when you are paying a franchise QB and a lot of guys. 

 

You implicitly raise a great point, albeit perhaps unwittingly.  IMO the overall teams of that "Last 20 Years" period often had better talent than we had.  We simply struggled to find a QB that was better than average.  If we had had Allen on many of those teams we'd have done better overall than we are now.  I even think that some of those coaches were better gameday/on-field coaches.  

 

It is easy to underestimate the impact that Allen has had here.  There's no doubt in my mind that had we had Allen in some of those seasons we'd have made the playoffs easily and likely even won the division over a Brady-led Pats too.  

 

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

.......Nsekhe, Klein, Saffold.......all guys who somehow got $6M aav or more as well.

 

It's really a combination of big wastes AND a high volume of nickel and dime mistakes that added up on the pro side.

 

Even things like the $15M they wasted trading for Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman(for a 2 week tryout) was real cap space that would go a long way toward getting the Bills back to the cap today.  

 

The Bills pro personnel department has been pretty ineffective under Beane.

 

Lotulolei cost us over $30M for the three years he played here, and not including 2020 when he sat out.  Talk about a waste.  

 

That Carolina connection for the players we've stripped from them hasn't worked out well at all.  Lotulolei, Benjamin, Addison, Jones, Obada, Butler.  

 

Them going there and so constantly coming up empty is troubling.  It's as if they're completely afraid to step out of their comfort zones which is the way that they stock the team, with a ridiculous overemphasis on Defense in both the Drafts and Free Agency.  It wouldn't be so bad if some of their DE pass-rush draft choices would turn into an impact player.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

 

To what extent does that have to do with Allen however?  How would this team be doing with QBs like Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Bledsoe (LOL, in particular with his brick feet), etc.  I don't think even average by our standards back then.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

Phillips played to his late 3rd round draft status.  Remember, he was never a pass-rushing prospect.  He was more of a gap-filling DT, which he did decently.  Was he an impact player?  No, but at the tail end of the 3rd round that isn't expected.  

 

I'd say he's played better at DT than his offensive counterpart Spencer Brown has at OT and both were drafted within a couple of picks of the same draft spot.  I'd be pretty happy if we could get the same level of play out of Brown at the RT spot.  

1 hour ago, Success said:

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

The Rams overachieved last season, '21 , also. 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing us overachieve in the playoffs one of these seasons.  By hook or by crook I'd take a Championship! 

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

 

I couldn't agree more, particularly with the Jets and Fins making a monumental leap this past season.  Miami nearly beat us all three times, and did once although that was a bogus game.  Still, the combined point differential in all three games was +4 for us.  We split with the Jets, and neither team has the QB that we have.  

 

It'll be critical for us to win the division this next season too.  Going into the playoffs as a wild-card wouldn't be good.  I don't envision any scenario in which we miss the playoffs as long as Allen stays healthy.  Having said that, if Allen were to get hurt in the preseason I wouldn't bet a rusty penny that we have a winning record.  

 

We'll see what happens, but if this Draft is like his past ones I'm concerned.  Apparently we won't do much in Free Agency according to Beane.  

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

2 years.......$14.5M......$7.7M gtd.

 

Beane was paying backups $6M plus and getting patted on the back for it for the most part.

 

I understand that the Bills weren't much of a destination after they gutted the roster of all recent 1st and 2nd round picks in the name of culture and passed on addressing their QB problem in year 1..........but he paid double for everything in subsequent seasons and really struck out big time in pro personnel.     

Beane's strategy has been to dumpster dive for FA vets in the OL.  Still waiting for him to sign a guy who can play longer than a season, besides Morse.

 

I don't hate the strategy, just the results

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Beane's strategy has been to dumpster dive for FA vets in the OL.  Still waiting for him to sign a guy who can play longer than a season, besides Morse.

 

I don't hate the strategy, just the results

 

Wow, talk about an incredibly accurate concise statement!  Very accurately stated! 

[Matt_In_NH]

Saying the Cap is just accounting and saying you can have whatever you want all the time just do some accounting are not the same.  Cap and cash are different…. True but you still have to be smart.   Look at New Orleans spotrac page for the next 5 years and look at all the void money that is “just accounting”.  

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

That will never happen.  All of the other three major sports employs a great deal less players and although they have guaranteed contracts, it’s not a 53 or should I say a 69 man roster including PS.

 

These owners love this cap as it’s a hard edit, and a hard cap.  There are certainly manipulations in Terms of cash over cap, and converting roster to signing bonuses.  The owners don’t want exemptions as that is less profit, and they expend a ton to buy a franchise.  They get incredible tax exemptions, but they also expend a great deal of cash.

People thought I was crazy when I said Daniel Jones was asking for 45 mill not so crazy anymore. Once the major markets have franchise QBs they have to pay there will quickly become a movement that qb in particular will become a salary exception where it can only count so much against the cap

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You implicitly raise a great point, albeit perhaps unwittingly.  IMO the overall teams of that "Last 20 Years" period often had better talent than we had.  We simply struggled to find a QB that was better than average.  If we had had Allen on many of those teams we'd have done better overall than we are now.  I even think that some of those coaches were better gameday/on-field coaches.  

 

It is easy to underestimate the impact that Allen has had here.  There's no doubt in my mind that had we had Allen in some of those seasons we'd have made the playoffs easily and likely even won the division over a Brady-led Pats too.  

 

 

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

I would be more worried about the Bengals if Burrow and Chase were already signed to extensions and they still had that cap space 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

Beane missed his window to capitalize on vastly improving the team. His misses were and are huge. Both sides of the lines are not good enough. Other weakmesses exist too. The time to do it was while Allen was on his rookie contract. 

 

My initial thought is the Bills aren't as good as Cinci amd KC. I don't think they can make up the ground now. Beane's hand is exposed. His presser was a huge bluff to the fans. Are you calling him or.folding?

[Ya Digg?]

3 hours ago, Success said:

 

I think rankings show that we fall right in the middle in terms of drafting over the past 5 years.  And that's kind of how I see it. 

 

I think evaluating Beane as a drafter also has to take into consideration how slowly we sometimes bring rookies & younger players along.  This coaching staff seems a bit cautious in that regard, at least for me.  I see Elam, Cook and Shakir as all being very quality starters for the Bills next year - and really could have been in '22.  Benford could be also if he makes a successful move to safety.  It doesn't look great - but it also wouldn't shock me a bit if Bernard turned into a very good sub at some point, and special teamer.

 

Other drafts have been more hit or miss, but it's kind of interesting to me that players like Teller, Hodgins and Zay Jones have panned out better elsewhere.

 

 

He was very good until he got hurt.  He was basically playing w/ 1 arm the last half of the season.  

 

The only one who has done anything of note is Teller. Jones went to the Raiders and did absolutely nothing, did nothing for the first part of this season then finally, finally came on towards the end. And I’m sorry, but 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Hodgins is nothing. He’s a slower version of Robert Foster in that as soon as the Giants get some talent at WR he will quickly fall down that depth chart 

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Beane missed his window to capitalize on vastly improving the team. His misses were and are huge. Both sides of the lines are not good enough. Other weakmesses exist too. The time to do it was while Allen was on his rookie contract. 

 

My initial thought is the Bills aren't as good as Cinci amd KC. I don't think they can make up the ground now. Beane's hand is exposed. His presser was a huge bluff to the fans. Are you calling him or.folding?

 

I dont think its that dire, but I do think this is a critical offseason.  We still have a very good roster, but I am more concerned with 2 coordinators.  They are not being improved upon, and I just lack confidence in both of them.  Dorsey at least has potential to improve, Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

53 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I would be more worried about the Bengals if Burrow and Chase were already signed to extensions and they still had that cap space 

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

... Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

 

Wrong approach?  LOL  

 

What "approach" is it to leave Hill and Kelce Wide f'n Open for them to get all the yards they need in a matter of seconds.  We won't even mention the "approach" for the prior Kickoff.  I mean honestly, one shouldn't have to be a DC for even a month to understand that that's the one thing that you DO NOT WANT TO DO.  

 

Same in the Cinci game, let's leave all of our DBs and coverage guys 10-15 yards off the LoS on key 3rd-downs.  

 

I mean really, what defense is there for coaching like that?  What defense is there for not doing something about it as the Head Coach.  That's why I think that McD has much more say in "Frasier's D" than we think.  

 

They lost me after preaching accountability, but when it comes to them, then all of a sudden there is no accountability.   That's hypocrisy and that doesn't sit well with me.  They can go fool some other people, not me.  

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[Mango]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Somewhat true of KC but let's not take anything away from what they did. They still went out and beat a Cinci team that thrashed the Bills. Not to mention Cinci had their way with them in previous meetings. Not to mention they beat a better Eagle team.

 

In short, quality organizations with quality coaches and quality players know how to win. That's KC from top to bottom.

 

Compare that to a Bills team.

Veach huge edge over Beane.

Reid huge edge over McD.

Spags huge edge over Fraizer.

Bienemy edge over Dorsey. Get the picture? 

 

There is talk about being too harsh on Beane. Perhaps too harsh on the coaches as well. I totally get that if you have standards to the losing ways of the past. Totally understand if you are satisfied with multiple playoff appearances. 

 

At some point, the playoff appearances need to be Super Bowl appearances. Wouldn't you agree? The Bills have absolutely squandered the last two years! There's no other way to say it or see it. Enough with the excuses and the kid gloves.

 

This organization has failed with greatness to meet its goals. It's all good though. Let's run it back again this year. What's the likely result? What a farce. One can clearly see teams are right on the backs of the Bills. Two just so happen to be in the division. Two other teams have made clear jumps past the Bills. The writing is on the wall. I'd argue that Diggs and even Allen can feel it slipping away. Their comments and attitude indicates frustration and unhappiness. That comes from disappointment and losing. 

 

The Bills brass has obviously blundered in protecting Allen and giving him weapons. Coaching and scheme is also an issue. Maybe under Dabol we have seen the best version of Allen? Dorsey certainly didn't get the best out of him? In fact, I'd agrue the opposite. 

 

Hold onto to your seat. The upcoming season is likely a bumpy road with a whole less success. 

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Edmunds had a good year.

$20M good?

I don't think so.

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

[newcam2012]

26 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

That's not unrealistic. 

[newcam2012]

This is 100% on point. 

 

Go back to the 13 second disaster. We fans never got a full explanation of what happened. Arguably, one of the worst beats in team history and it got swept under the rug.

 

The media treated the coaching staff with kid gloves. McD dodged every question. Fraizer was left off scott free. 

 

Most fans have moved on and accept the blunder as a one off. Using examples of other coaches who blew it. Total BS. 

 

Now, fast forward one year later and Cinci buries the Bills in their own building. 

 

Again, no accountability. Excuses of injuries, crazy season, Damar, etc...BS again! The team wasn't ready to play. The coaches had terrible game plans. Learned nothing from their rehearsal in Cinci weeks prior. 

 

Let's not kid ourselves either. Coach McD took over during that 13 second span. There's no way he didn't. 

 

This team will not advance far in the playoffs with McD, Fraizer, and Dorsey leading the way. 

 

The time is now for change! Good guy McD has to go. Fraizer just plan sucks when it counts. Horrific decision to keep him on. Dorsey is a young baby learning and hurting the Bills chances in win it all mode. 

Beane sold us manure in his press conference. 

 

Allen and Diggs can feel it slipping away. Why can't the fans? 

[Mango]

37 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

Not unimaginable. We almost lost the second game to Miami too. That puts us at 3-3/ 12 wins. KC, 11. CIN 10.

 

I am unwilling at the moment to start flirting with the .500 mark and hope that the Bills find a way against the NFCE and the rest of their opponents.

 

I guess I’ll mark them down with 2 Division Wins vs the Pats per you above. 
 

Pats

Pats

LV

WAS

DEN

TB

JAX

NYG (I think they win this game)

DAL (I don’t get the hype)

 

Steal a game somewhere. 10 wins. 

 

[newcam2012]

45 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

I can definetly see the Bills missing the playoffs. 

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Not unimaginable. We almost lost the second game to Miami too. That puts us at 3-3/ 12 wins. KC, 11. CIN 10.

 

I am unwilling at the moment to start flirting with the .500 mark and hope that the Bills find a way against the NFCE and the rest of their opponents.

 

I guess I’ll mark them down with 2 Division Wins vs the Pats per you above. 
 

Pats

Pats

LV

WAS

DEN

TB

JAX

NYG (I think they win this game)

DAL (I don’t get the hype)

 

Steal a game somewhere. 10 wins. 

 

 

I can see anything happening next season.  I can see us going 8-9 with some bad luck, I can see us going 13-4 again.  If Allen were to go down wins would become few and far between with the team and coaching the way it is.  If he were to go out in the preseason my guess for record would be 6-11.  We're entirely non-competitive without him.  He is the team.  

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[newcam2012]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I can see anything happening next season.  I can see us going 8-9 with some bad luck, I can see us going 13-4 again.  If Allen were to go down wins would become few and far between with the team and coaching the way it is.  If he were to go out in the preseason my guess for record would be 6-11.  We're entirely non-competitive without him.  He is the team.  

 

 

Maybe Allen can play on one leg and win too? 

[PBF81]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

Maybe Allen can play on one leg and win too? 

 

Maybe.  LOL  

 

What we do know is that rest of the team by itself can't play on two without Allen.  

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

Sanders was very missed this year 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

3 straight AFCE titles and 4 playoff wins in those 3 years. He’s doing something right. And it’s not just the numbers. 
 

[Utah John]

If the cap is not a real cap, then all the talk about being over the cap is just a way to negotiate with players?  "Sorry, Jordan, we realize you want your big payday, but we're gazillions over the cap.  The fact that you're starting to get hurt a lot, just like most players your age who are ready to slide down the hill, never crossed our minds.  Gosh, we're sorry."

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

3 straight AFCE titles and 4 playoff wins in those 3 years. He’s doing something right. And it’s not just the numbers. 
 

Not claiming he hasn't done good things. I absolutely give credit to Beane and McD for building a winning franchise. 

 

However, they have woefully fallen short in progressing the team further. That's my major issue, complaint, and concern. 

 

The last two years the Bills were primed to make at least a Super Bowl appearance and arguably win it all. The organization and team failed miserably. Coaches were clearly out coached and out planned and out maneuvered. Players failed to step up and execute. Allen had very little support. 

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

I still lean on giving the division edge to the Bills purely because of Allen. He's just that dynamic and good. Likely make the playoffs if he stays healthy. 

 

Depends on how you measure success. As for me, 3-5 years ago. It was such a pleasure to see them winning in the regular season. Win the division. Great to see them advance to the playoffs. 

 

However, at some point the goalposts have moved or should have moved. The last two years weren't just about making the playoffs. It was about going to the Super Bowl and  winning it all.  

 

Fast forward to the state of the team now. It has holes or weaknesses throughout the roster in various areas. We know what they are. No way in heck can they all be adequately be addressed. Let's not even get into the injuries the team will suffer next year. They will have injuries. 

 

Hope that helps you see things in a different light. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by newcam2012

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Phillips played to his late 3rd round draft status.  Remember, he was never a pass-rushing prospect.  He was more of a gap-filling DT, which he did decently.  Was he an impact player?  No, but at the tail end of the 3rd round that isn't expected.  

 

I'd say he's played better at DT than his offensive counterpart Spencer Brown has at OT and both were drafted within a couple of picks of the same draft spot.  I'd be pretty happy if we could get the same level of play out of Brown at the RT spot.  

 

 

We are on about Jordan. Not Harrison.

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

 

You're kinda jumping the shark with the bolded part. Suddenly Edmunds is some victim of poor coaching/utilization? While Milano is simultaneously an example of positional success under the same regime?  

[GunnerBill]

There is absolutely no way I see the Bills missing the playoffs unless Josh misses time. I put the chance at like 0.1%. 

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

 

But Cincy are one of those teams without rich owners. It is going to be harder for them to pony up a whole heap of cash up front in pro-rated bonuses for Burrow and Chase to manage cap hits. I wouldn't be surprised if both of those cap numbers get quite big quite quickly. They have less flexibility because they lack deep pockets. 

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

People thought I was crazy when I said Daniel Jones was asking for 45 mill not so crazy anymore. Once the major markets have franchise QBs they have to pay there will quickly become a movement that qb in particular will become a salary exception where it can only count so much against the cap

78, the owners don’t care.  It’s all about profit, and only profit.  I understand working for a large corporation in the past.

[Magox]

Of course the cap matters.  These aren't fake numbers, the cap maneuvering is just a way to kick the can down the road, but at the end at some point there is a reckoning.

 

Also, this whole Lamar Jackson debate with some analysts who say "Just pay the man".   "Do it at whatever cost", these sort of proclamations and analysis is lazy.

Yes, I agree that you should do everything within reason to keep him or any other young franchise QB but it's not at "any cost".   Fully guaranteeing his contract means there is very little cap maneuvering - you have less flexibility to help the team out in the interim, not to mention Lamar has been very injury prone the past couple seasons and lets face it, Lamar without his running ability is a middling QB.  

 

Where the Ravens went wrong was not signing Lamar up to a long-term deal after his third year, now they are paying the price of the Deshaun Watson fully guaranteed debacle.  My guess is that after the Hurts, Burrow and Herbert contracts which I would imagine will go back to not fully guaranteed contracts will bring the QB market back to where it was, probably with a little more guaranteed money pre Watson.

 

I bring up Lamar because I was listening to Brandt yesterday on NFL Sirius and he was expressing frustration with the Ravens for not getting the deal done.