PFF's Top 100 likely free agents....Athletic top 150 free agents......other free agent articles

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

They drafted 2 of the 5. 

Exactly.

 

[John from Riverside]

27 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Exactly.

 

Yeah, the fact that they drafted half of them and they brought half and then free agency only makes the Chiefs look better

[Bill from NYC]

On 2/5/2023 at 4:30 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The people dying to expend the Bills first round pick on a RB or Guard check out some of those low contract estimates.............you don't use first round picks on positions that command such modest dollars in UFA.     

I would add safeties to the above. There are 14 safeties on that list of 100, and almost all of them are projected to make less money than those at other positions. 

I also found it interesting that there we 9 corners, bringing the total to 23 defensive backs out of the 100 players listted. Allowing for 3 corners and 2 safeties,  dbs represent 22.7% of the 22 players on the field at most given times. On this list of 100, they represent 23% of the players listed. I found this interesting but I digress.

It would appear (at least to me) that safeties are not highly valued as compared to almost every other position. I think VERY highly of Brian Branch at safety coming out of Alabama. He can cover, has very good hands, can blitz very well and is a fearless tackler. That said, I would not want to use a 1st round pick on him. 

TBH, if it came down to one or the other I would rather use it on a guard.  

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Bill from NYC

[Gregg]

jamie stuart on Twitter: "Jets talk: On @WFAN660 now @RichCimini says he doesn’t get the sense “Carr is the Jets guy.” Says they’ll definitely make play for Rodgers, and Garoppolo would be in play if Rodgers chooses elsewhere. #TakeFlight" / Twitter

[Back2Buff]

There are so many safeties on the list:

 

4. S JESSIE BATES III, CINCINNATI BENGALS

18. S JORDAN POYER, BUFFALO BILLS

24. S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

45. S VONN BELL, CINCINNATI BENGALS

47. S JIMMIE WARD, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

60. S TAYLOR RAPP, LOS ANGELES RAMS

61. S JULIAN LOVE, NEW YORK GIANTS

66. S JUAN THORNHILL, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

71. S DONOVAN WILSON, DALLAS COWBOYS

78. S ADRIAN AMOS, GREEN BAY PACKERS

92. S RODNEY MCLEOD, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

94. S DEVIN MCCOURTY, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

95. S MARCUS EPPS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

96. S DURON HARMON, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Completely infatuated with the Michael Thomas idea. Obviously health being the primary concern, and the team has many other needs and holes to fill. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

There are so many safeties on the list:

 

4. S JESSIE BATES III, CINCINNATI BENGALS

18. S JORDAN POYER, BUFFALO BILLS

24. S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

45. S VONN BELL, CINCINNATI BENGALS

47. S JIMMIE WARD, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

60. S TAYLOR RAPP, LOS ANGELES RAMS

61. S JULIAN LOVE, NEW YORK GIANTS

66. S JUAN THORNHILL, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

71. S DONOVAN WILSON, DALLAS COWBOYS

78. S ADRIAN AMOS, GREEN BAY PACKERS

92. S RODNEY MCLEOD, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

94. S DEVIN MCCOURTY, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

95. S MARCUS EPPS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

96. S DURON HARMON, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

 

The best player on that list is Bates by far. I think he will be too expensive. But not a bad investment. 

 

In terms of scheme fit I like Gardner-Johnson and Thornhill the most. Thornhill is the slightly better athlete and a little bigger. Johnson is two years younger and will be more expensive. I think either are really good replacements and both have that corner-safety versatility. 

[Back2Buff]

8 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

The best player on that list is Bates by far. I think he will be too expensive. But not a bad investment. 

 

In terms of scheme fit I like Gardner-Johnson and Thornhill the most. Thornhill is the slightly better athlete and a little bigger. Johnson is two years younger and will be more expensive. I think either are really good replacements and both have that corner-safety versatility. 

 

I'm a big fan of Jimmie Ward.

[MrEpsYtown]

20 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I'm a big fan of Jimmie Ward.

 

I like him too, not sure of the fit. He is more of a box safety and he played mostly nickel corner this year. But the dude makes plays, tackles, and plays with that edge we are missing. The one other thing I will say about Ward is that he is just a couple of months younger than Poyer. It will be interesting to see what those guys get paid. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

I would add safeties to the above. There are 14 safeties on that list of 100, and almost all of them are projected to make less money than those at other positions. 

I also found it interesting that there we 9 corners, bringing the total to 23 defensive backs out of the 100 players listted. Allowing for 3 corners and 2 safeties,  dbs represent 22.7% of the 22 players on the field at most given times. On this list of 100, they represent 23% of the players listed. I found this interesting but I digress.

It would appear (at least to me) that safeties are not highly valued as compared to almost every other position. I think VERY highly of Brian Branch at safety coming out of Alabama. He can cover, has very good hands, can blitz very well and is a fearless tackler. That said, I would not want to use a 1st round pick on him. 

TBH, if it came down to one or the other I would rather use it on a guard.  

 

 

 

 

Yeah I definitely don't want a safety in round 1.   Ever.

 

ESPN just did a re-draft of 2022 and they had Elam going to Dallas (ahead of McDuffie which would surprise some)...........and the Bills then taking S Kyle Hamilton from their original spot(ahead of McDuffie).

 

If they had gotten the top rated guard-specific Kenyon Green........yikes........the sure-thing, off-the-bus starter allowed 8 sacks as a rookie.

 

Zion Johnson was better but still not nearly as good as was expected.

 

Those guys may develop into very good players just in time to put their team on the spot about their 5th year option.............but in general I think fans want guards because they think they will be good immediately while premium positions like Edge/WR/CB are expected to have growing pains.    

 

Interestingly two late round TACKLES were re-drafted into the top 36 overall in Jamaree Salyer and Braxton Jones.

 

I am still a believer in drafting tackles and bumping them inside if you have to.

[Gregg]

Pat McAfee on Twitter: ""I'm still in the art of contemplation about my future.. after my isolation retreat I'll be ready to make a decision" ~ @AaronRodgers12 #PMSinAZ https://t.co/21uLlRDlQr" / Twitter

[GunnerBill]

On 2/7/2023 at 4:35 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I definitely don't want a safety in round 1.   Ever.

 

ESPN just did a re-draft of 2022 and they had Elam going to Dallas (ahead of McDuffie which would surprise some)...........and the Bills then taking S Kyle Hamilton from their original spot(ahead of McDuffie).

 

If they had gotten the top rated guard-specific Kenyon Green........yikes........the sure-thing, off-the-bus starter allowed 8 sacks as a rookie.

 

Zion Johnson was better but still not nearly as good as was expected.

 

Those guys may develop into very good players just in time to put their team on the spot about their 5th year option.............but in general I think fans want guards because they think they will be good immediately while premium positions like Edge/WR/CB are expected to have growing pains.    

 

Interestingly two late round TACKLES were re-drafted into the top 36 overall in Jamaree Salyer and Braxton Jones.

 

I am still a believer in drafting tackles and bumping them inside if you have to.

 

Agree with this although I would say Hamilton is a special player. He is more Derwin James than true safety IMO. He is just a defensive playmaker you line up anywhere. He played mainly as a big nickel as a rookie, but he lined up on the edge some, he played in the box some, on the boundary some, at free safety a bit. He might be the exception. 

 

In contrast I never thought either of those guards were special players. Good guard prospects, sure. But you need to be special at those non-premium spots for me to think of you as a first rounder. If Hamilton had dropped to the Bills last year and they'd taken him I would not have hated it.

 

In contrast I like Antonio Johnson a lot this year, and I can see the Bills liking him a lot too, but he is just a nice safety prospect. Not someone you should spend a first round pick on IMO.

[The Jokeman]

There's mumbles Shaq Thompson could get cut. I wonder if we'd continue the Carolina to Buffalo train if we lose Edmunds? I know they're aren't the same position but I wonder if we could shift Milano to man the middle and find a new WLB?

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

There's mumbles Shaq Thompson could get cut. I wonder if we'd continue the Carolina to Buffalo train if we lose Edmunds? I know they're aren't the same position but I wonder if we could shift Milano to man the middle and find a new WLB?

I could see Shaq. I think if he were signed he would replace Taron Johnson in a lot of scenarios with 3 true backers. If you signed Shaq to replace Tremaine and played Milano, Shaq, and Johnson in that 4-2-5, that is a very small LB corps. I don’t hate it, but I think we might have even more issues with stopping the run. 
 

Now if you added Shaq and say Anthony Walker Jr to play the mike, you play Milano-Walker-Shaq and when you go to nickel Johnson comes in for Walker and Shaq and Milano are your pass defenders. I would love to see the Bills play more situational defense. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[4merper4mer]

On 2/7/2023 at 7:45 AM, Bill from NYC said:

I would add safeties to the above. There are 14 safeties on that list of 100, and almost all of them are projected to make less money than those at other positions. 

I also found it interesting that there we 9 corners, bringing the total to 23 defensive backs out of the 100 players listted. Allowing for 3 corners and 2 safeties,  dbs represent 22.7% of the 22 players on the field at most given times. On this list of 100, they represent 23% of the players listed. I found this interesting but I digress.

It would appear (at least to me) that safeties are not highly valued as compared to almost every other position. I think VERY highly of Brian Branch at safety coming out of Alabama. He can cover, has very good hands, can blitz very well and is a fearless tackler. That said, I would not want to use a 1st round pick on him. 

TBH, if it came down to one or the other I would rather use it on a guard.  

 

 

So 23% of the top 100 are DBs and 23% of players on the field are DBs?  What point do you think that makes?  I mean I know from years of experience reading your posts that DBs should be banned from football but how does the 23/23 thing support or refute that?

[4merper4mer]

On 2/7/2023 at 8:44 AM, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Completely infatuated with the Michael Thomas idea. Obviously health being the primary concern, and the team has many other needs and holes to fill. 

Health a concern but work ethic is a show stopper.

[The Jokeman]

23 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I could see Shaq. I think if he were signed he would replace Taron Johnson in a lot of scenarios with 3 true backers. If you signed Shaq to replace Tremaine and played Milano, Shaq, and Johnson in that 4-2-5, that is a very small LB corps. I don’t hate it, but I think we might have even more issues with stopping the run. 
 

Now if you added Shaq and say Anthony Walker Jr to play the mike, you play Milano-Walker-Shaq and when you go to nickel Johnson comes in for Walker and Shaq and Milano are your pass defenders. I would love to see the Bills play more situational defense. 

The more I dive into this draft I wonder if we let Edmunds we try and replace him with a similar prospect. As I keep seeing Drew Sanders' name coming up. 

[Bill from NYC]

18 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

So 23% of the top 100 are DBs and 23% of players on the field are DBs?  What point do you think that makes?  I mean I know from years of experience reading your posts that DBs should be banned from football but how does the 23/23 thing support or refute that?

My point was really about the abundance of safeties on the list. There are posters on this board actually calling for a first round safety. 

Perhaps this would please you, who knows?

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

The more I dive into this draft I wonder if we let Edmunds we try and replace him with a similar prospect. As I keep seeing Drew Sanders' name coming up. 

Yeah interesting guy. He’s very much a unicorn like Tremaine. Sanders is a bit light for my taste, as he could stand to gain 15-20 lbs. But the dude can ball. I love Jack Campbell just because his instincts are ridiculous. I am interested to see these guys and Simpson, and Noah Sewell’s numbers at the combine. 

[CSBill]

Get one of: Ben Powers (29), Dalton Risner (43), Nate Davis (52), or Ethan Pocic (57). And draft a quality interior lineman or LT in the draft. Then reshuffle the current people as needed (Dawkins to a guard? Bates to Center or LG? .... I'm assuming Morse will retire?). if so, the line can only get better.

[Real McClappy]

15 and 28 is all I need. 

[4merper4mer]

12 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

My point was really about the abundance of safeties on the list. There are posters on this board actually calling for a first round safety. 

Perhaps this would please you, who knows?

Does 14 safeties on a list of 100 guys really constitute in an “abundance” that manifests itself in discounted salaries?  I guess we’ll all find out.  We likely need to get a safety somewhere and it is an important role on this defense.  Having Hyde helps in 2023 but how much longer will he play?  For the long term we really need to add more than one safety considering Johnson disappointed and Hamlin has obvious questions surrounding him.  I’m all for finding our safety of the future in the 6th round, but finding a star at any position in the 6th works for me.  
 

I also take into consideration that our pick is not very high…..27 I think.  I’m for whoever is the best combination of immediate impact and long term viability at any position.  Is that more likely to come at some positions than others?  I suppose.   Personally, I don’t have a visceral documented hatred for any position group.  If we ended up taking a guy that was the next Anthony Munoz at 27 I’d be elated.  I’d also be thrilled if it were the next Ronnie Lott.

[Fleezoid]

Number 55 for me. 

 

Diggs plays big, but I'm tired of these smallish receiving groups. 

[BADOLBILZ]

Relating to the free agents that might interest/align with the Bills from the SB yesterday:

 

My initial impression was that Isaac Seumalo played a tremendous game last night at guard for the Eagles.

 

@MrEpsYtown mentioned Juan Thornhill as a cheaper-than-Poyer safety option that the Bills really liked in the draft..........he seemed at blame for the first bomb to AJ Brown where McDuffie ended up without help.    Was perfectly positioned on a later deep pass he defensed.   Not sure who blew the coverage on the wide open Devonta Smith play on the Eagles last scoring drive. 

[Gary Marangi]

On 2/7/2023 at 4:23 PM, Gregg said:

Pat McAfee on Twitter: ""I'm still in the art of contemplation about my future.. after my isolation retreat I'll be ready to make a decision" ~ @AaronRodgers12 #PMSinAZ https://t.co/21uLlRDlQr" / Twitter

He sounds like a teenage girl deciding who to go to the prom with

[Gregg]

Ian Rapoport on Twitter: "Expect #Raiders QB Derek Carr to receive significant interest when his release is official at 4 pm today, but the veteran won’t be in a rush to sign. He’s already visited the #Saints – who are still in the mix – and don’t be surprised if more visits follow before a decision." / Twitter

[BADOLBILZ]

2/16 Added a couple CBS stories about potential cuts and top offensive free agents to the initial post

[The Jokeman]

On 2/6/2023 at 12:13 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm on board with change on defense so I'm inclined to let Edmunds walk and see if we can't become more of a team that funnels the run to the middle than outside and in the process get better at rushing the passer............but I know there is potential for Edmunds to get a lot better still.............and he could sign a very long contract at his age which would allow for a couple years of cheap cap hits.    It's a lot more tempting around $15M than $18M-$20M.

 

Lot's of players on that list that are short term that I'd take.

 

The guy not on that list that I'm hoping comes free is Calais Campbell.   Just a personal favorite and good culture/physicality fit for a ring chaser.  

 

And I do wonder if they will be an interested party on one of those inexpensive old pass rushers this time around if they don't think Miller will be back to 100% early next season.

Campbell's long in the tooth. If we want Boogie to develop he can only do so with playing time.

[Fan in Chicago]

On 2/7/2023 at 10:35 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

.

 

I am still a believer in drafting tackles and bumping them inside if you have to.

If there is a Day1 starter at T available,  take him and bump Dawkins inside.  Or take a stud WR. I really don't want to see another Rd1 pick on D.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/6/2023 at 3:16 PM, Billl said:

Serviceable Guards grow on trees.  If you’re targeting an all-pro caliber player in FA, that’s one thing, but there’s simply no excuse for having to pay $8-$10 million for a JAG.  There are 10 guys out there right now waiting to be drafted on day 3 who can provide a similar level of play.  When you’re up against the cap, you’d better be able to find those guys.  Beane’s been successful throwing money at problems for the past 4 years, but that money is running out quickly.  He’s got to start stacking wins in the draft immediately, or there’s going to be one hell of a mess to clean up in 2024.

Yeah Beane has to hit on quality "rookie deal" olineman this April.  Unless there's an amazing RT at a bargain contract. 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 2/16/2023 at 9:52 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Yeah Beane has to hit on quality "rookie deal" olineman this April.  Unless there's an amazing RT at a bargain contract. 

 

Beane needs to start nailing free agency,  period.

 

In the two UFA periods before he took over as GM the Bills were limited participants in UFA and absolutely hit it out of the park finding Lorenzo Alexander and Zach Brown on $2M deals and then adding Poyer and Hyde on value deals they enormously outplayed.

 

Beane has been very bad in UFA.    They gotta' evaluate UFA's better.   No more Rodger Saffold and OJ Howard kinda' decisions.

[Zerovoltz]

On 2/6/2023 at 12:07 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

Off that list, here are my thoughts: 

 

I think Poyer and Edmunds are our no. 1 targets. Outside of those two, I can't see us working in that top 50. 

 

Germaine Pratt makes a ton of sense as a Tremaine replacement. He's not as big as Tremaine, but makes up for it in instincts. He is a former safety turned linebacker and I just really always liked his game. His RAS was elite coming out as well. He is going to be cheaper than Tremaine. 

 

If Tremaine goes I think they also look at Drue Tranquill. I think Pratt is better, but Tranquill makes plays and will be cheaper than both those guys. he is a little older and has a bit less of a track record from injuries. 

 

A guy I have not seen a ton of people talking about is Juan Thornhill. A former corner turned safety who is very long, fast, and tackles. His RAS score was big time running 4.42. He has been a really solid contributor in KC since day 1 and the projection here is 5.5 million per year? I'll take it. The Bills were all over him pre draft but drafted Cody Ford instead :(.  

 

Finally I talked about it a lot on here, but I think their OL target should be Connor McGovern of the Jets. Plays center or guard. he is still young with a nasty disposition. Sign him, put Bates at LG and stick McGovern next to Brown. He is a former linemate of Mitch Morse and could potentially replace him if he decides to retire at some point. PFF has him at 7.5 per year. 

 

 

You are welcome to him.  He does not play fast, is NOT an especially good tackler.  He's a run of the mill starting caliber S in the NFL.  And he hasn't been a ball hawk.  He's ALWAYS a step late in coverage playing the over deep.  

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

You are welcome to him.  He does not play fast, is NOT an especially good tackler.  He's a run of the mill starting caliber S in the NFL.  And he hasn't been a ball hawk.  He's ALWAYS a step late in coverage playing the over deep.  

 

 

That's kind of the point............the Bills don't need to be the #1 or #2 ranked defense..........they just need to be adequate like Cinci and KC and put more of their focus on the offensive side of the ball.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

new articles added in OP

[John from Riverside]

On 2/13/2023 at 12:06 PM, Gary Marangi said:

He sounds like a teenage girl deciding who to go to the prom with

I can’t stand Aaron Rodgers

[Gregg]

Looking more likely that Barkley will test FA.

 

Dov Kleiman on Twitter: "#Giants RB Saquon Barkley is now considered likely to hit free-agency There is still a “gap” in negotiations between the team and Barkley, per @nypost Giants arent likely to pay Saquon more than $12.5M a year and have "little interest" in placing the $10.1M franchise tag on him https://t.co/W0QE5tMO5A" / Twitter

[Gregg]

24 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Smart on the Giants. Paying a RB that much is criminal. Dime a dozen position. 

 

Tough spot for them though. With the exception of Jones and Barkley they didn't have much on offense last year. I would expect they go WR in Rd 1 this draft.

[dave mcbride]

On 2/18/2023 at 4:05 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Beane needs to start nailing free agency,  period.

 

In the two UFA periods before he took over as GM the Bills were limited participants in UFA and absolutely hit it out of the park finding Lorenzo Alexander and Zach Brown on $2M deals and then adding Poyer and Hyde on value deals they enormously outplayed.

 

Beane has been very bad in UFA.    They gotta' evaluate UFA's better.   No more Rodger Saffold and OJ Howard kinda' decisions.

Beasley and John Brown were good signings. They also got one quite good year out of Daryl Williams (no more than that, though). I'd also argue that Da'quon Jones' season this year was elite. He was hugely missed vs Cincy.

[Gregg]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

 You can’t pay a RB what Barley is asking for. 
 

Jones is the tough call. He’s a middle of the road starter. I’d be willing to let him walk as well unless he takes some sort of team friendly deal. If I’m the Giants I am still targeting a QB if a potential great one is available because long term with Jones won’t translate to consistent winner IMO.

 

Jones I could see getting 25M - 30M per year. I wouldn't go higher. He wants 45M per year and that is just crazy. He will still get a big pay day. The Giants can place the tag on him if they can't work out a deal. That is also a lot of money for an RB but Barkley was the main focus of their offense so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. I wouldn't mind Barkley on the Bills but not at the price he is asking for.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Beasley and John Brown were good signings. They also got one quite good year out of Daryl Williams (no more than that, though). I'd also argue that Da'quon Jones' season this year was elite. He was hugely missed vs Cincy.

 

 

Beasley and Brown were good signings at market rates.    Williams was a bargain for one year.    They got a solid season out of Kevin Johnson at CB in 2019.   That's the beginning and end of the value he's acquired in UFA.    Less than 1 good value per offseason for a team that has been very aggressive in UFA.

 

Daquon Jones is a solid starter but the market for his services is more like what he got in Carolina in 2021,  $4M per year.   $14M for 2 was a big number.   Yeah, he was a lot better than Star Lotulelei and the drop-off in that outlier game against Cinci to another failed UFA, tweener 1-tech/3-tech Tim Settle, was significant.   But that is definitely not a reflection that Jones is an elite player.    There wasn't actually a big elevation in his play last season,  he's always been a very solid block absorber.    

 

Beane was once again extremely generous with the contracts to guys with questionable tread remaining like Saffold, OJ Howard and Jordan Phillips.........that latter two had limped their way down to what should have been league minimum offerings.        

 

His track record in UFA is undeniably terrible.