2nd half of the Green Bay game on…

[Lenigmusx]

At the time I thought it was an anomaly. Just a bad half of football after a dominant first half. Some sloppy ball by Josh. Good defensive adjustments by a wounded team that wasn’t meeting expectations. That coupled with a running game that our “D” let go a little because it was chewing clock and a comeback was impossible. 
 

Like Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and Ken Dorsey this is where I put too much faith in the talent and forgot that the NFL stands for Not For Long. This is why Andy Reid has continued success. His scheme doesn’t changed season to season it changes week to week. That is why he is a notch above. It is also why Kelly was so good from the K-Gun in the glory years. He called it from the field. Josh is amazing but he can’t do that as he needs to be reined in. 
 

Back to the Green Bay game… It created the blue print on film. They hemmed in the entire route tree that Josh was successful with. Checking Mackenzie off the line. Taking away Diggs double moves with a safety. Then they brought pressure knowing they weren’t going to get sacks but instead they were going to push Josh to his tendencies and sit on them. Resulting in bad TO’s.  This was the perfect Defense for our 11 package on film. 21 personnel and settling into run game and dink and dunk would have open things up for PA. Dorsey is too stubborn for that. It was the beginning of the end for this year on Offense. 
 

part II was although Rodgers couldn’t get it really going. They gashed the Bills Defensive front with power runs some 12 personnel some 21. They ran downhill and there was no answer. Every team we faced moving forward had some success with these concepts except Chicago (that game was the outlier). That game plan may have been better suited for Cinci yesterday. 
 

part III - prior to DaMar’s injury Josh hid some flaws by extending drive with his legs. Especially on 3rd and 6-8 yards. In the NE, Miami and especially yesterday he chose low percentage deep shots when almost every time he could have run for a first down. He has been less willing to run with the frequency and abandon the he did before the injury. Drives could have been extended yesterday but I think I’m glad they weren’t. 
 

*Conclusions- fatal schematic flaws on both sides of the ball were brutally exposed. The league only needs it on film once and if you don’t adjust you are not going to win a championship. Talent will carry you but perhaps Josh reining in his own running exposed problems that he hid for way too long. Knox needs to be used as an outlet out of 21 and we need more 12 packages and power run. PA is still a thing and 11 alone will not get it done. The defense needs to run more base 4-3 and the 3rd linebacker needs to be a stud like Milano. The Dline needs to run some wide 9 packages to generate pressure and disrupt edge running backs. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Lenigmusx

[BillsBlue]

Awesome take I agree, that's when it all started to unravel

[Billsfanatic8989]

Yep. 110% agree. 

 

Struggled to beat a bad team after getting out to a big lead. 

 

I thought it was just a one off. Unfortunately it was not.

[PauleeeWalnuts]

2 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Yep. 110% agree. 

 

Struggled to beat a bad team after getting out to a big lead. 

 

I thought it was just a one off. Unfortunately it was not.

It became the norm this season 

[Yobogoya!]

Honestly the whole second half of the season was just a struggle to watch. While other playoff teams were rounding into form and playing some of their best football, we were dealing repetitively with the same struggles, making crucial self-inflicted gaffes and trudging to the finish line — winning games through attrition and the strength of JA’s arm. 
 

I can’t remember a less enjoyable winning streak in my life. It was just bizarre how unfun it was to win most all of those games, lol

[Lenigmusx]

4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

Honestly the whole second half of the season was just a struggle to watch. While other playoff teams were rounding into form and playing some of their best football, we were dealing repetitively with the same struggles, making crucial self-inflicted gaffes and trudging to the finish line — winning games through attrition and the strength of JA’s arm. 
 

I can’t remember a less enjoyable winning streak in my life. It was just bizarre how unfun it was to win most all of those games, lol

Wow this is so oddly true. Every game I felt like the wheels were coming off or that we escaped by a thread. I would actually feel it physically after each game. To win 13 games and feel you were really the AFC’s version of Minnesota 😳Adding injury to insult they are the ones who beat you at home to knock you out of the one seed. Then you add in all the other worldly craziness and Damar perhaps this season was cursed from the outset. 

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, Lenigmusx said:

Wow this is so oddly true. Every game I felt like the wheels were coming off or that we escaped by a thread. I would actually feel it physically after each game. To win 13 games and feel you were really the AFC’s version of Minnesota 😳Adding injury to insult they are the ones who beat you at home to knock you out of the one seed. Then you add in all the other worldly craziness and Damar perhaps this season was cursed from the outset. 

 

Yeah, that would seem to be the Bills trajectory here.  This regime is disinclined to make big changes in any case

[Billz4ever]

34 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

At the time I thought it was an anomaly. Just a bad half of football after a dominant first half. Some sloppy ball by Josh. Good defensive adjustments by a wounded team that wasn’t meeting expectations. That coupled with a running game that our “D” let go a little because it was chewing clock and a comeback was impossible. 
 

Like Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and Ken Dorsey this is where I put too much faith in the talent and forgot that the NFL stands for Not For Long. This is why Andy Reid has continued success. His scheme doesn’t changed season to season it changes week to week. That is why he is a notch above. It is also why Kelly was so good from the K-Gun in the glory years. He called it from the field. Josh is amazing but he can’t do that as he needs to be reined in. 
 

Back to the Green Bay game… It created the blue print on film. They hemmed in the entire route tree that Josh was successful with. Checking Mackenzie off the line. Taking away Diggs double moves with a safety. Then they brought pressure knowing they weren’t going to get sacks but instead they were going to push Josh to his tendencies and sit on them. Resulting in bad TO’s.  This was the perfect Defense for our 11 package on film. 21 personnel and settling into run game and dink and dunk would have open things up for PA. Dorsey is too stubborn for that. It was the beginning of the end for this year on Offense. 
 

part II was although Rodgers couldn’t get it really going. They gashed the Bills Defensive front with power runs some 12 personnel some 21. They ran downhill and there was no answer. Every team we faced moving forward had some success with these concepts except Chicago (that game was the outlier). That game plan may have been better suited for Cinci yesterday. 
 

part III - prior to DaMar’s injury Josh hid some flaws by extending drive with his legs. Especially on 3rd and 6-8 yards. In the NE, Miami and especially yesterday he chose low percentage deep shots when almost every time he could have run for a first down. He has been less willing to run with the frequency and abandon the he did before the injury. Drives could have been extended yesterday but I think I’m glad they weren’t. 
 

*Conclusions- fatal schematic flaws on both sides of the ball were brutally exposed. The league only needs it on film once and if you don’t adjust you are not going to win a championship. Talent will carry you but perhaps Josh reining in his own running exposed problems that he hid for way too long. Knox needs to be used as an outlet out of 21 and we need more 12 packages and power run. PA is still a thing and 11 alone will not get it done. The defense needs to run more base 4-3 and the 3rd linebacker needs to be a stud like Milano. The Dline needs to run some wide 9 packages to generate pressure and disrupt edge running backs. 

Great post and I couldn't agree more.  This offense never looked the same after that game and even though the defense got exposed, Frazier stubbornly stuck with the same exact things.  If you cannot adapt in this league, you are doomed to fail.

[Low Positive]

Good take. Too bad that game came after the bye. The Bengals made a huge offensive adjustment over the bye week where they installed all those plays that get the ball out fast to negate poor OL play. You know, all those plays we saw yesterday. Before the bye, Burrow was getting sacked because he held the ball waiting for Chase or Higgins to get open downfield. Now the ball is out in under 2 seconds. That was not just a few plays, but a change in offensive philosophy made midseason. We don't have the creative offensive minds to make those adjustments. 

[Motorin']

56 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

At the time I thought it was an anomaly. Just a bad half of football after a dominant first half. Some sloppy ball by Josh. Good defensive adjustments by a wounded team that wasn’t meeting expectations. That coupled with a running game that our “D” let go a little because it was chewing clock and a comeback was impossible. 
 

Like Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and Ken Dorsey this is where I put too much faith in the talent and forgot that the NFL stands for Not For Long. This is why Andy Reid has continued success. His scheme doesn’t changed season to season it changes week to week. That is why he is a notch above. It is also why Kelly was so good from the K-Gun in the glory years. He called it from the field. Josh is amazing but he can’t do that as he needs to be reined in. 
 

Back to the Green Bay game… It created the blue print on film. They hemmed in the entire route tree that Josh was successful with. Checking Mackenzie off the line. Taking away Diggs double moves with a safety. Then they brought pressure knowing they weren’t going to get sacks but instead they were going to push Josh to his tendencies and sit on them. Resulting in bad TO’s.  This was the perfect Defense for our 11 package on film. 21 personnel and settling into run game and dink and dunk would have open things up for PA. Dorsey is too stubborn for that. It was the beginning of the end for this year on Offense. 
 

part II was although Rodgers couldn’t get it really going. They gashed the Bills Defensive front with power runs some 12 personnel some 21. They ran downhill and there was no answer. Every team we faced moving forward had some success with these concepts except Chicago (that game was the outlier). That game plan may have been better suited for Cinci yesterday. 
 

part III - prior to DaMar’s injury Josh hid some flaws by extending drive with his legs. Especially on 3rd and 6-8 yards. In the NE, Miami and especially yesterday he chose low percentage deep shots when almost every time he could have run for a first down. He has been less willing to run with the frequency and abandon the he did before the injury. Drives could have been extended yesterday but I think I’m glad they weren’t. 
 

*Conclusions- fatal schematic flaws on both sides of the ball were brutally exposed. The league only needs it on film once and if you don’t adjust you are not going to win a championship. Talent will carry you but perhaps Josh reining in his own running exposed problems that he hid for way too long. Knox needs to be used as an outlet out of 21 and we need more 12 packages and power run. PA is still a thing and 11 alone will not get it done. The defense needs to run more base 4-3 and the 3rd linebacker needs to be a stud like Milano. The Dline needs to run some wide 9 packages to generate pressure and disrupt edge running backs. 

 

Great points. Dorsey also seemed to refuse to go to 12 or the Bobby Hart package yesterday, even after the Ravens had gashed them all day long.

 

Like the Bills, the Bengals stay in base nickel even against heavy looks. Dorsey could have explored that all day, especially running at Hendrickson. The one time I remember them doing that, freaking Dawson Knox blew him up.

 

Stubbornness is this staff's Achilles heal. From refusing to play younger, newer players over failing vets, to refusing to alter the game plan to take advantage of the other team's weaknesses. 

[Billsfan1972]

Yep we're all coming out of the woodwork....

 

How many pointed to that game months ago and said that something was wrong, only to be shouted down by the "Pro McD" crowd? 

 

Do a search and as I've said there were many saying those catchphrases "Just Win" "Winning in the NFL is tough" "We have targets on our backs and teams take their best shots", "13-3" anytime the GB and any game after the bye came up...... 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[Sharky7337]

The defense was done last year when the Tampa Bay Brady's and the rest of the league basically new the defense was soft and couldn't tackle.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Sharky7337

[Lenigmusx]

26 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep we're all coming out of the woodwork....

 

How many pointed to that game months ago and said that something was wrong, only to be shouted down the "Pro McD" crowd? 

 

Do a search and as I've said there were many saying those catchphrases "Just Win" "Winning in the NFL is tough" "We have targets on our backs and teams take their best shots", "13-3" anytime the GB and any game after the bye came up...... 

funny thing is I’m generally pro McD I like him as a head coach. His diagnostics were off here though. Joe B seems to be honed in on Krommer and Washington. He seems to think they will fall on the sword. The lines were putrid but it is more and Diggs knows it that’s why he was so pissed. He won’t abandon Buffalo but he feels like he is back in Minneapolis and that won’t make me angry as well. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Lenigmusx

[Kaenon]

1 hour ago, BillsBlue said:

Awesome take I agree, that's when it all started to unravel

It's incredible that we had an 8-game win streak to end the season and win a playoff game but it all had been unraveling for 10-11 weeks.

And I actually kind of agree despite winning all those games. Ugh. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Lenigmusx said:

Wow this is so oddly true. Every game I felt like the wheels were coming off or that we escaped by a thread. I would actually feel it physically after each game. To win 13 games and feel you were really the AFC’s version of Minnesota 😳Adding injury to insult they are the ones who beat you at home to knock you out of the one seed. Then you add in all the other worldly craziness and Damar perhaps this season was cursed from the outset. 

The Bills were far from the AFC’s Minnesota. The Vikings were the only playoff team with a negative point differential. The Bills point differential was near the top of the league. The Vikings had a ridiculous record in close games - something like 10-0. That’s an unsustainable run of good fortune. The bills didn’t escape by a thread in many games. They had a few flaws ( some due to injury) that teams either weren’t good enough to take advantage of or Josh Allen’s abilities covered up. That’s tougher to do  in the playoffs as the teams/ coaching staffs you face get better. 

[Lenigmusx]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills were far from the AFC’s Minnesota. The Vikings were the only playoff team with a negative point differential. The Bills point differential was near the top of the league. The Vikings had a ridiculous record in close games - something like 10-0. That’s an unsustainable run of good fortune. The bills didn’t escape by a thread in many games. They had a few flaws ( some due to injury) that teams either weren’t good enough to take advantage of or Josh Allen’s abilities covered up. That’s tougher to do  in the playoffs as the teams/ coaching staffs you face get better. 

You are correct from a statistical stand point it was more of feeling of how far down the mountain we really are in the AFC hierarchy. 

[Boatdrinks]

34 minutes ago, Lenigmusx said:

You are correct from a statistical stand point it was more of feeling of how far down the mountain we really are in the AFC hierarchy. 

They’re much closer to the top than the bottom. Top 3 or 4 but they’ve got work to do to stay there. That’s always true because it’s how the NFL is set up. The biggest key to sustained success is the QB and they’ve got that. Clearly they need to change a few things to reach the summit of an AFC title and the right to compete for a world’s Championship. 

[colin]

4 hours ago, Lenigmusx said:

At the time I thought it was an anomaly. Just a bad half of football after a dominant first half. Some sloppy ball by Josh. Good defensive adjustments by a wounded team that wasn’t meeting expectations. That coupled with a running game that our “D” let go a little because it was chewing clock and a comeback was impossible. 
 

Like Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier and Ken Dorsey this is where I put too much faith in the talent and forgot that the NFL stands for Not For Long. This is why Andy Reid has continued success. His scheme doesn’t changed season to season it changes week to week. That is why he is a notch above. It is also why Kelly was so good from the K-Gun in the glory years. He called it from the field. Josh is amazing but he can’t do that as he needs to be reined in. 
 

Back to the Green Bay game… It created the blue print on film. They hemmed in the entire route tree that Josh was successful with. Checking Mackenzie off the line. Taking away Diggs double moves with a safety. Then they brought pressure knowing they weren’t going to get sacks but instead they were going to push Josh to his tendencies and sit on them. Resulting in bad TO’s.  This was the perfect Defense for our 11 package on film. 21 personnel and settling into run game and dink and dunk would have open things up for PA. Dorsey is too stubborn for that. It was the beginning of the end for this year on Offense. 
 

part II was although Rodgers couldn’t get it really going. They gashed the Bills Defensive front with power runs some 12 personnel some 21. They ran downhill and there was no answer. Every team we faced moving forward had some success with these concepts except Chicago (that game was the outlier). That game plan may have been better suited for Cinci yesterday. 
 

part III - prior to DaMar’s injury Josh hid some flaws by extending drive with his legs. Especially on 3rd and 6-8 yards. In the NE, Miami and especially yesterday he chose low percentage deep shots when almost every time he could have run for a first down. He has been less willing to run with the frequency and abandon the he did before the injury. Drives could have been extended yesterday but I think I’m glad they weren’t. 
 

*Conclusions- fatal schematic flaws on both sides of the ball were brutally exposed. The league only needs it on film once and if you don’t adjust you are not going to win a championship. Talent will carry you but perhaps Josh reining in his own running exposed problems that he hid for way too long. Knox needs to be used as an outlet out of 21 and we need more 12 packages and power run. PA is still a thing and 11 alone will not get it done. The defense needs to run more base 4-3 and the 3rd linebacker needs to be a stud like Milano. The Dline needs to run some wide 9 packages to generate pressure and disrupt edge running backs. 

 

I agree with the bit about our O getting schemed and us not doing jack about it.

 

i disagree on the D side tho.  i think that has been known for ever.  since McD got here we have been trucked in a game by a physical team every year, where they basically had the game won on the first drive and no coaches made any changes to adjust against it.  the only way we've been able to beat that is to play rock paper scissors early to stop them in their tracks (we did that vs tenn this season) and then go out and get a lead to put pressure to stop the run.

 

to me it's arrogant and lazy as a coaching staff, because they want to be able to just sit on one stupid package on D, yet they constantly sub out D line and even CBs, but they never come up w an answer up front.

 

my only like hopeful suspicion: we know mcclap has taken over calling defensive plays for frazier in the past, i think he did it last year vs NE when the D got a bit more aggressive in that windy game.  im hoping he's seen enough and actually has some talent as a DC for us.

 

 

[Lenigmusx]

What is very ironic to me in retrospect is that Stefan’s comments seem to echo my original post to some degree. Without outlining defining factors or getting in to detail he basically outlined a similar timeline. I find this interesting as even though the W/L  record was better afterwards he felt the first 9 games hand a different overall vibe from the team. 

[KDIGGZ]

Ok but the problem is that a competent coaching staff would see what the other team is doing and counter that. We have like 4 former OC's on the team. How did these problems not get addressed?

 

Case in point, the super bowl. Andy Reid sees that when the KC receiver goes in motion they are passing them off to the inside guy man-to-man so he easily countered that by having the guy fake motion and then go out to the flat. Wide open for 2 TD's. Our OC could never...

[Bermuda Triangle]

On 1/23/2023 at 10:40 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep we're all coming out of the woodwork....

 

How many pointed to that game months ago and said that something was wrong, only to be shouted down by the "Pro McD" crowd? 

 

Do a search and as I've said there were many saying those catchphrases "Just Win" "Winning in the NFL is tough" "We have targets on our backs and teams take their best shots", "13-3" anytime the GB and any game after the bye came up...... 

it'd be interesting to look back at some of the threads the week after the GB game.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

It wasn't the X's and O's it was the Jimmy's and Joe's.

 

Teams adapted to limit what the Bills had..........but the Bills didn't have the personnel to make the changes and be better for it.

 

Add in the Allen injury and they never got all the way back but were still the league's second highest scoring team.

 

I think there are just a lot of disillusioned fans who felt certain that Gabe Davis was going to be a stud and that Isaiah McKenzie was going to break out from the shadow of Cole Beasley and still can't accept that they were wrong about the talent.

 

Organizationally, the Bills put too much stock in Davis and Dawson Knox raising their games and Jamison Crowder bouncing back.

 

Instead they got very similar iterations of those players that had been seen in the prior year..........but instead of Davis and Knox being the 3rd/4th or 5th options in the passing game they became the clear cut 2 and 3.

 

And they were good enough to score a lot of points that way but not good enough to be among the final 4 teams..........all who were loaded with playmakers.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The Bills peaked after their blow out win against the Titans in week 2. I had never felt like I was flying higher as a Bills fan than after those two wins to start the season and meeting and exceeding the Super Bowl expectations. That was the last time they truly met and exceeded their lofty pre-season expectations. They would go on to beat the Chiefs a few weeks later but there were a couple of ugly games and a ton of injuries mixed in between. 

[Riverboat Ritchie]

You kept thinking it would click for a whole game but never did after first half of Green Bay. O Line and a legit WR2 and we could be ok next year…brutal schedule and all. Really can’t wait for off season to really start as not too hopeful now. 

[Airseven]

On 1/23/2023 at 9:11 AM, Kaenon said:

It's incredible that we had an 8-game win streak to end the season and win a playoff game but it all had been unraveling for 10-11 weeks.

And I actually kind of agree despite winning all those games. Ugh. 

The win streak was smoke and mirrors - ugly wins against mediocre teams. They were able to duck the one good team during that streak who were quite clearly primed to blow them out.

[LABILLBACKER]

They never make in game or quarterly adjustments.  And if they do they're lame and inconsequential.  I've never been impressed with McDermott's style of game day coaching.  He gets an A for player relationships and all that culture/ process BS.  But when the game starts, it's like he's locked in to his weekly game-plan and nothing else. It's like instead of the first drive being scripted, the whole damn game is scripted. And if S#!+ isn't working just keep doing the same.  Playoff games are even worse.

50 minutes ago, Riverboat Ritchie said:

You kept thinking it would click for a whole game but never did after first half of Green Bay. O Line and a legit WR2 and we could be ok next year…brutal schedule and all. Really can’t wait for off season to really start as not too hopeful now. 

This seasons schedule is brutal.  It might be our toughest schedule in a decade. 10 games against playoff caliber teams.  I don't imagine the Bills will have the emotional drama to experience like last year, but the schedule is daunting.