How confident are you the Bills beat the Bengals?

[Freddie's Dead]

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

 

This team hasn't lost by double digits since November...of 2021.  Just go find a different team if you irrationally hate this one so much.

If trolling is an art, Airseven is Van Gogh. Best troll I have ever seen on any sports message board. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I have literally never been confident going into a Bills game. I am anxiety ridden before, during, and sometimes after! 

[Dr.Sack]

I’m confident that the Bills at home in front of the Mafia will prevail. 

[HappyDays]

Seeing that the Bills are favored by 4-5 points makes me weirdly confident. That spread is begging casual bettors to jump on the Bengals. Like Vegas knows something.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

Seeing that the Bills are favored by 4-5 points makes me weirdly confident. That spread is begging casual bettors to jump on the Bengals. Like Vegas knows something.

Maybe Vegas knows something, but the 49ers are only 3 point favorites at home against the Cowboys. As an objective observer that seems really low.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Just now, HappyDays said:

Seeing that the Bills are favored by 4-5 points makes me weirdly confident. That spread is begging casual bettors to jump on the Bengals. Like Vegas knows something.

This couldn’t be a more classic pros vs joes match for bettors.  The narrative is out there for casuals about the Bills losing big playoff games meanwhile the analytics suggest we’re superior by a pretty wide margin.

[CoffeeDrip]

I feel better going into this weekend than I did pre-the Monday night game. Bengals banged-up OL is the biggest matchup in our favor. Defense needs to make Burrow feel like he’s back in 2021. He is much more of a traditional pocket passer than Allen/Mahomes/etc. 

 

They’re gonna score some points. We’re gonna score some points. It will be a close one. But I think Buffalo wins.

[Augie]

25 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

Did your parents name you Confidence? I’m not here to judge.   😋

30 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

 

This team hasn't lost by double digits since November...of 2021.  Just go find a different team if you irrationally hate this one so much.

 

I’ve had that garbage on manual ignore for a while. I highly recommend it! 

[CoudyBills]

1 hour ago, AlfaBill said:

Do you watch the games? The Bills 1st Q D is terrible. They seem to observe the opposing O before really deciding on how to defend them. They’ve been doing that all year. Even if the Bengals took a 14-3 lead I would bet the Bills put 7 on their next possession Seeing how easy they moved it on the first one. Then it’s 14-10. The cats have been known to fall asleep on O at times. Who’s to say we wouldn’t have been on top 21-17 at the half? We will never know it’s silly to assume the Bills lose. 

Did you think that first question was clever?  What a stupid question.

[DrPJax]

1 hour ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

and we didn't? 

 

Everyone assumes the Bengals were just gonna wipe the floor with us 7-minutes into the game.  Bills moved the ball just as easy against their defense too.  

     Yeah but game was moved to Buffalo , so it’s still like having the 1 seed until possibly playing KC, right?  If the Gals had won , we drop to the three and playing in cincy this week or kc if kc had lost.  We were down Hamlin , and #7 , the best nickel back / quasi LB in the league. Who knows how the remainder goes tho, as this Bills team continues to just win ( gals on a 10 game streak too tho )?  
 

      They did have some bad luck injury wise , losing 3 starting ol since then perhaps for this game , but hey, Hamlin is out, all pro Hyde and HOF von miller is out, so they can cry me an Ohio river injury wise !  Lol!  My issues are we just need Josh to be the best Josh , not shady carrying the ball in one hand , and maybe 11 deep balls ( connecting on 3-4) is not great statistical strategy, esp when backs were open as way to beat the cover 0 ?  Not getting to Diggs for stretches is as bad as taking the ball away from someone like Thurman or Reed back in the day.   This o line is avg at pass pro , teams are not rushing ends past Josh and also spying him , so Dorsey Needs some anticipation and solutions.  Teams will copy that d look.    We will need to prob score in the 35 area , so at home our Wr can’t be dropping balls or  making route errors.   Dorsey tho can’t fall into another 7 sack , def scoring , short field donating O show up.  Fingers crossed. 
 

        Burrows does scare me because he is just very accurate if you’re not hitting him. We have not been getting home well with 4 dl.  Frazier will prob have to send Milano / Edmunds at times.  .  We don’t match up well with their receivers, but Tre may be feeling more confident , Taron had an amazing game against Hill and Waddell, and hopefully the staff puts Elam out there as he played well and athletically can hang with those gals wrs.  I just don’t get their hesitation at this point , he is your #1 pick , rookie  time is over and he saved the end game against Miami. What more can you ask while Jackson has had a rough year and now possible knee issues?  
      Hyde would be huge but medically I think it’s hard seeing  him returning for contact this year (if cleared medically tho ,  hope he does  make it back) so I hope Marlowe / poyer are in sync.  Little concerned as fins were running free early and they had many critical drops too.   Milano is critical stopping Mixon running and hitting Joe cool a couple of hard times, and Edmunds needs to cover the rbs / tight ends well.   Would love to see Edmunds get Sticky hands on a couple of those balls he gets too ! ( po has disappeared with ints with arm issues, so maybe Elam can grab or tip one for an int) 

 

     Should we get behind , more than 10 , or two full possessions at any point at home , I think odds go to 70-30 cincy as I don’t think Josh has a great record from that far back ( don’t have stats in front of me).  But if we can remain ahead until late in the 4 th ( like 4 min time) by 7 or 8 , or keep  within one possession, I think it flips to 80% BILLS WIN.  0-1 turnovers or we win the turnover margin and  I think it’s a win , like 38-31.  
      Lose the turnover margin by more than 1 and I don’t see how we escape again.  I don’t terribly mind the ints too much, but there is no excuse for Josh to keep carrying the ball  Shady style, one handed scrambling and certainly not in between the tackles.  if Daboll has Daniel  jones playing  error free, well That speaks volumes about our coaching if the Turnovers continue.  Should we still be hearing  “ I can’t do that” next week from Josh ,most likely he will be right, he “ can’t “because they won’t be playing.  I struggle  understanding  those type of preventable mental  mistakes. Josh will keep a great year going avoiding those.    😀
 

 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

49 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

 

This team hasn't lost by double digits since November...of 2021.  Just go find a different team if you irrationally hate this one so much.

Don’t worry, @Airseven has accurately picked the winner of about five Bills games this year.  When he picks against the Bills, it actually increases my confidence that we are going win.  

[Freddie's Dead]

27 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Did your parents name you Confidence? I’m not here to judge.   😋

 

Nah.  With McKittrick sidelined, we needed a War Games reference.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

Looks like snow. 80% chance. 1" during the day... 1-3" @ night...

[brianthomas]

A poll mightve been a good option!

But i'm not as confident as i'd like to be. Yes we've been winning games but i haven't seen Championship level football, have you guys?

We saw it for the 1st quarter vs Miami, then well we saw the rest of that game lol.

I just don't see a confident team right now.

Nor do i see a team thats progressing or improving as the games increase in importance.

I see an offense struggling for balance & consistency. I see a QB whose reverted back to his old rookie self a little too much. And i see self-inflicted mistakes across the board that will be the end of us one of these days.

You gotta BILLIEVE but its gonna take them playing as close to a mistake free game as possible for them to win. A feat we haven't managed in idk how long.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, Motor26 said:

One hundred percent. What's the point of rooting for a team if you don't believe they're going to win every game. 

 

Quite the opposite actually. If I was 100% confident the Bills would win every game, I don't think I would ever watch them. For this one I am somewhere around 50% confident the Bills win. Give or take 5% in either direction. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

A poll mightve been a good option!

But i'm not as confident as i'd like to be. Yes we've been winning games but i haven't seen Championship level football, have you guys?

We saw it for the 1st quarter vs Miami, then well we saw the rest of that game lol.

I just don't see a confident team right now.

Nor do i see a team thats progressing or improving as the games increase in importance.

I see an offense struggling for balance & consistency. I see a QB whose reverted back to his old rookie self a little too much. And i see self-inflicted mistakes across the board that will be the end of us one of these days.

You gotta BILLIEVE but its gonna take them playing as close to a mistake free game as possible for them to win. A feat we haven't managed in idk how long.

Everything you write Bengals fans could also write. They keep winning despite playing some bad football for stretches. joe Burrow was outplayed by Tyler Huntley last week. They needed a fumble return to win last week. Neither team has played to their potential in months. But the Bills are playing at home. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by FrenchConnection

[Senth]

Buffalo defense will dominate the Cinci 

Buffalo will dominate the Bengals OL.

[AlfaBill]

1 hour ago, CoudyBills said:

Did you think that first question was clever?  What a stupid question.

Not clever but honest. It seems to me that so many bills fans assume that the cats were going to blow out the bills. It’s as though many haven’t seen how this D warms up after the first couple of drives. No need to get pissy about it. 

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

Maybe Vegas knows something, but the 49ers are only 3 point favorites at home against the Cowboys. As an objective observer that seems really low.

Cowboys win this one. Purdy won’t beat that pass rush. Dak looked great last night 

[TwistofFate]

Flip a coin, that's how I feel. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

Not very, all things considered.

 

But....Josh has a 4-0 record and 17-3 TD-INT ratio at home....that has to count for something.

4 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

If no turnover Josh shows up they’ll win.  

 

Will he be bringing no fumble RB and no drop WR with him? What about no dumb penalties OL dude, is he coming?

 

It is going to be a nail biter.

[Boatdrinks]

I believe Bills will win the game; I’d say around 70% on the confidence meter right now. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

Can we cover their recievers?  That’s the number one thing that makes me nervous.   They drove down the field easily in the little we saw.

 

Need high energy def and relaxed Josh.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, Success said:

I'm over 80%.  Feeling VERY good about this game.  Strangely, I feel like the Bills - and particularly Allen - are being underestimated.  

 

And I think that O-line situation is going to be very tough for the Bengals.  We don't have a great pass rush, but it will be effective on Sunday.  

 

Cook is also gonna run wild.

 

I think Cook & Singletary will get theirs, but I have a feeling this is going to be a signature Josh Allen game where he goes ballistic. 360 yards 2 TDs + 70 yards rushing and a pair of TDs on the ground. Def gonna be a nail biter, but I just don’t see them losing at home. 

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, Steptide said:

I'm at about 65%. I think the bills are the better team overall, but we've watched them shoot themselves in the foot so many times this season. While I think the bills are fully capable of playing a mistake free game, it's hard to comprehend they will. Being at home is a big advantage (I think). 

I would lower your 65% to 60%, then reverse it.

 

I say 60% probability Bengals win, 40% Bills win.

 

If Josh is on fire and doesn't turn the ball over, we'll win!

 

 

 

 

[That's No Moon]

40 points is the target every week from here on out. Even that might not be enough.

[Wyobills89]

With von I'd be a good 75%. Without the pass rush threat it makes me nervous. Can our secondary cover for 5+ seconds that's what scares me. Going to be a battle. My heart says we pull it out somehow someway. 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, Wyobills89 said:

With von I'd be a good 75%. Without the pass rush threat it makes me nervous. Can our secondary cover for 5+ seconds that's what scares me. Going to be a battle. My heart says we pull it out somehow someway. 

If the secondary has to cover for 5+ seconds the Bills have no chance. Fortunately they don’t.. that’s an absurd amount of time in an NFL game  I’d be around 80% with Von but still around 70% as is. I agree the Bills will find a way, probably due to Josh Allen. 

[Billever76]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

“More than anyone else”.  Lol.  
 

We were the ONLY team that controlled their own destiny for the #1 seed prior to the MNF game. We didn’t play a game and then we lost control of our own destiny.  The Bengals were never in control of their own destiny.   As it turned out, they never even had a chance at the #1 seed as KC won week 17.  
 

what’s more important, the #1 seed or the #2 seed?  We lost an opportunity at the 1 seed.  They lost an opportunity at the 2 seed. And Cinci lost more…. 🙄 

Not to mention the cancelation of the game gave Cincinnati the Division AUTOMATICALLY 

[BillsfaninSB]

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have literally never been confident going into a Bills game. I am anxiety ridden before, during, and sometimes after! 

Same here.  I think any outcome is possible with the Bills.

 

My anxiety level was sky high after the Dolphin win.  Still haven’t rewatched the game which I normally do by now.   Probably won’t get to it. 

 

The most I felt remotely confident that they would win was the Jags last year and the Steelers this year. 

[Bookie Man]

38-30

[Boatdrinks]

34 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Same here.  I think any outcome is possible with the Bills.

 

My anxiety level was sky high after the Dolphin win.  Still haven’t rewatched the game which I normally do by now.   Probably won’t get to it. 

 

The most I felt remotely confident that they would win was the Jags last year and the Steelers this year. 

Funny how that is.. the least confident I remember being was before the Bills first home AFC title game vs the Raiders in 1990 season ( Jan ‘91). I had a pit in my stomach and could barely sleep the night before. I remembered the regular season matchup when the Bills rallied from 24-14 deficit in the 4th quarter. I thought the Raiders might just be too good to beat twice . It was unbelievable and amazing the Bills could win 51-3. We just don’t know! 

[Nelius]

65% Bills, which is heavy favorite. Let the naysayers have their day. Cincy is good. Burrow is good. He's got the cerebral, Brady-like qualities down but he's not going to tuck and jump over a linebacker for a game winning score, if necessary, like our guy.

 

More specifically, Cincy's defensive backs sucks. Eli Apple is getting starting time. The same Eli Apple that was a joke 5 years ago. I don't have it on me but I think I read that they were 28th or so in passing yards allowed the last 3 weeks of the season. Josh Allen give, and Josh Allen take away, but the Bengals should give him a ton of opportunities to give. I think he'll gladly rise to the challenge based on previous playoff performances.

[Billznut]

Tell me right now that we will score at least 30 AND win the turnover battle, then I believe it’s about 90% chance the Bills will win. Without those two things happening Sunday, I’d say it’s 50/50 at best. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes. That was actually a well used time out… just about every other one turns out to be a waste that washes out a negative play for the opposing team… and he seems to do it every game. 

Every game?  Miami is the first one I can recall this season and he can't tell the darn future.  He didn't like the look that he was in so he called a timeout.  If they completed that long pass to Waddle we'd all be praising him.  Plus, it's difficult to judge the outcome of a play when some of the players heard the whistle and didn't participate  

 

A wasted time out is at the end of the half when he took a timeout for what he thought was a Diggs touchdown even though the replay review has to come from upstairs.  Although, he had to do that in the Colts playoff game a couple of seasons ago and I think that actually worked in our favor.  Memory is fuzzy.

[BillsShredder83]

Confident enough to bet an asian bookie, with the domain rights to twobillsdrive.com as collateral 

[Nelius]

The more I think about it this is probably the week that Diggs goes off for a career performance.

[BarleyNY]

60%. Joe B is for real and they have the best WR trio in the league, but that OL is a real issue for the Bengals. Nice defense too, except for the CBs. 

[Chandler#81]

To answer the OP’s question, reasonably. We know their Defense is susceptible and the OL is in tatters. Fairly sure no QB has been sacked more times, than Burrow than any other -for the games he’s played. WRs? They have them in Spades. They’re the defending AFC Champs so no slough, to be sure. Imo, the only team left who can beat us is…. Us! -and sadly, we’re capable of self-destructing..

🤦‍♂️

Edited January 18, 2023 by Chandler#81

[Bill Grundy]

As confident as I would be in most divisional rounds. Either team could win it, which is why they are there. Given the season we've just watched, it would be foolish to think the win in the bag or that a loss is inevitable. Home field probably the factor I'm most confident about. Bengals at theirs would be a much, much bigger ask. 

 

Best team will win. I can't confidently say I know who that is.