Sean McDermott is the current longest tenured NFL head coach without a Super Bowl appearance.

[gtw3]

Odd to prop up those coaches to illuminate McD's shortfalls when he has beaten 4 of them so far this year alone.

 

 

Longest tenured without a Superbowl appearance, sure. 

 

.... I take that as, he is due.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

Even though last offseason wasn’t as good as the one before, the team was, and we were 13 seconds away. Yes it’s on McDermott, but the team as a whole DID grow even though the record in the post season didn’t. Yes wins matter, but we can’t deny the team itself didn’t grow and McDermott was driving the boat. 

 

I agree. The 2021 team was definitely better than the 2020 team despite the season and post season records. 

 

One of the biggest issues the Bills have right now is that this is the second consecutive season the wheels have completely fallen off in the middle of the season. It could very well cost us the #1 seed yet again. It could even possibly cost us the division because the Jets and Dolphins have both improved greatly. 

 

I really wasn't sure why we struggled last year midseason or who was to blame. This year it feels obvious.  Our struggles are due to injuries on the defensive side of the ball and Allen making poor decisions with the football. None of those are really on McDermott. 

[Dr.Sack]

Thankfully he’s won playoff games in consecutive seasons. It would be another thing if he was 0-4 in the playoffs, rather he’s 3-4.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

13 hours ago, Chaos said:

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

I just want to quote this again. This truly is an amazing stat/streak. It's more amazing than the League MVP super bowl champions drought streak that goes back to I think 1999. You have to go back to 1976 to find a HC/QB combo that won a Super Bowl after their 4th year together. 

[AlfaBill]

I think the Bills should move on if they don’t hoist the SB this year. Changing coaches every few years seems to have worked in the past for the bills. Just sayin.  

[Ralonzo]

On 11/18/2022 at 8:52 PM, Chaos said:

Only five NFL HC's  have been with their current NFL teams longer than Sean McDermott. 
 

1. Andy Ried,
2. Bill Bellichek,
3. Pete Carrol,
4. John Harbaugh
5. Mike Tomlin

 

All have Super Bowl wins. And multiple appearances.  

Head coaches with shorter tenures and super bowl appearances include

1. Sean McVay (hired same year as McDermott)
2. Kyle Shanahan (hired same year as McDermott)
3. Zac Taylor

 

 

As an aside here are coaches with wins against Sean McDermott's AFC East Third Place team in 2022

1. Mike McDaniel (rookie)
2. Kevin O'Connell (rookie)
3. Robert Saleh (second year)
    

Bills fans are the most patient.  In almost every other NFL fanbase Mr. McDermott would be "on the hot seat"

 

This is the first post I've seen that has received every possible reaction. That's something.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

I think the Bills should move on if they don’t hoist the SB this year. Changing coaches every few years seems to have worked in the past for the bills. Just sayin.  

"every few years" McDermott is well past every few years already. He's in his sixth season. 

 

I don't think McDermott would be canned after this season. Even having the bottom completely fall out and missing the playoffs entirely i would still give him a better than 50% chance of returning. But anything short of another AFC divisional appearance again this year and I think next year the heat could be turned way up. And at that point he's in his 7th season and 6th with Allen. Hardly "few years territory".

6 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

This is the first post I've seen that has received every possible reaction. That's something.

 

I saw one of those about a year ago and commented the same. They are rare for sure.

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I just want to quote this again. This truly is an amazing stat/streak. It's more amazing than the League MVP super bowl champions drought streak that goes back to I think 1999. You have to go back to 1976 to find a HC/QB combo that won a Super Bowl after their 4th year together. 

 

It is interesting but I question how many of those teams fired their coaches after 2-3 years that would have won one anyways if they stuck with said coach.  Also how many of those coaches walked into an already good situation that would have won one further down the road if they had to build some first.

 

I think whats more amazing to me is how many coaches only win one.  Belichick/Brady really screws our perception of how hard it actually is to win one and how many things including luck have to happen.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, AlfaBill said:

I think the Bills should move on if they don’t hoist the SB this year. Changing coaches every few years seems to have worked in the past for the bills. Just sayin.  

 

I know some people like to compare the present to the past.

 

By this time in Marv Levy’s tenure (6th full season as Head Coach of the Bills), he was on his way to his 3rd Super Bowl appearance. 

[Einstein]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

It seems most people have this vision of a slow grind of building a team and then advancing step by step through the years.  In real life, it is more like catching lightning in a bottle.  In the NFL the lightning is getting the right Starting QB / HC combo.    During the super bowl era, this is a list of how long each Starting QB/HC combo was together before winning their first champhionship together.  A couple of notes, Lombardi/Starr won NFL championships together before the Super Bowl era. Stram/Dawson's first championship together was an AFL championship

Next, a review of this list makes a strong case that Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach in NFL history. 

The mean average of time together before winning the first championship in the super bowl era is 2.5  Years.  Only once were a coach and starting QB together for more than four years before winning their first championship together. (Ken Stabler/ John Madden in 1976).

In terms of winning a championship, the Bills are in nearly uncharted waters vs history.  
 

Season    QB-Coach Combo    First Championship Together
1966    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi    Year 2
1967    Bart Starr*MVP-Vince Lombardi (2)    Year 2
1968    Joe Namath*MVP-Weeb Ewbank    Year 3
1969    Len Dawson*MVP-Hank Stram    Year 1
1970    Johnny Unitas*-Don McCafferty    Year 8
1971    Roger Staubach*MVP-Tom Landry    Year 2
1972    Bob Griese*-Don Shula    Year 3
1973    Bob Griese*-Don Shula (2)    Year 3
1974    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll    Year 4
1975    Terry Bradshaw*-Chuck Noll (2)    Year 4
1976    Ken Stabler*-John Madden    Year 6
1977    Roger Staubach*-Tom Landry (2)    Year 2
1978    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (3)    Year 4
1979    Terry Bradshaw*MVP-Chuck Noll (4)    Year 4
1980    Jim PlunkettMVP-Tom Flores    Year 1
1981    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh    Year 3
1982    Joe Theismann-Joe Gibbs    Year 2
1983    Jim Plunkett-Tom Flores (2)    Year 1
1984    Joe Montana*MVP-Bill Walsh (2)    Year 3
1985    Jim McMahon-Mike Ditka    Year 4
1986    Phil SimmsMVP-Bill Parcells    Year 3
1987    Doug WilliamsMVP-Joe Gibbs (2)    Year 2
1988    Joe Montana*-Bill Walsh (3)    Year 3
1989    Joe Montana*MVP-George Seifert    Year 1
1990    Jeff Hostetler-Bill Parcells (2)    Year 1
1991    Mark RypienMVP-Joe Gibbs (3)    Year 4
1992    Troy Aikman*MVP-Jimmy Johnson    Year 3
1993    Troy Aikman*-Jimmy Johnson (2)    Year 3
1994    Steve Young*MVP-George Seifert (2)    Year 3
1995    Troy Aikman*-Barry Switzer    Year 2
1996    Brett Favre*-Mike Holmgren    Year 3
1997    John Elway*-Mike Shanahan    Year 3
1998    John Elway*MVP-Mike Shanahan (2)    Year 3
1999    Kurt Warner*MVP-Dick Vermeil    Year 2
2000    Trent Dilfer-Brian Billick    Year 1
2001    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick    Year 2
2002    Brad Johnson-Jon Gruden    Year 1
2003    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (2)    Year 2
2004    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (3)    Year 2
2005    Ben Roethlisberger-Bill Cowher    Year 2
2006    Peyton Manning*MVP-Tony Dungy    Year 4
2007    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin    Year 3
2008    Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin    Year 2
2009    Drew BreesMVP-Sean Payton    Year 3
2010    Aaron RodgersMVP-Mike McCarthy    Year 3
2011    Eli ManningMVP-Tom Coughlin (2)    Year 3
2012    Joe FlaccoMVP-John Harbaugh    Year 4
2013    Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll    Year 2
2014    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (4)    Year 2
2015    Peyton Manning*-Gary Kubiak    Year 1
2016    Tom BradyMVP-Bill Belichick (5)    Year 2
2017    Nick FolesMVP-Doug Pederson    Year 1
2018    Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (6)    Year 2
2019    Patrick MahomesMVP-Andy Reid    Year 2
2020    Tom BradyMVP-Bruce Arians    Year 2
2021    Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay    Year 1

 

Wow, that’s kinda frightening.

 

So, we have the entire history of the NFL weighted against us. If you believe in that sort of thing.

 

Thankfully I don’t.

 

Still, fascinating.

[AlfaBill]

52 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I know some people like to compare the present to the past.

 

By this time in Marv Levy’s tenure (6th full season as Head Coach of the Bills), he was on his way to his 3rd Super Bowl appearance. 

So?

[Einstein]

47 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

So?

 

You talked about what history has shown you.

 

I shared another piece of history.

[AlfaBill]

15 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You talked about what history has shown you.

 

I shared another piece of history.

Mine was an attempt at sarcasm. The Bills are a winning franchise that all teams are trying to emulate and you want fire MCD because Marv went to a SB in year 3. Sounds about right

[GunnerBill]

The contention from @Chaos is the right one - that believeing NFL success is about a slow methodical year by year build that inevitably concludes with a Superbowl - is misguided. 

 

It is, as he says, more about catching lightening in a bottle. The Rams were not the best team in football in 2021. The Bengals weren't even top 5. That was the Superbowl. It is lightening in a bottle. 

 

But the conclusion he makes that McDermott as a result should be on the hot seat is flawed. The acknowledgment that it is lightening in the bottle is a tacit acknowledgment of the element of randomness that is part of the NFL's appeal. The fact that McDermott and Allen are in year 5 together does not make it any less likely that they catch lightening in a bottle this year, or next year, than it was last year or the year after. 

 

There are legitimate reasons to ask questions of McDermott and the staff. This mid season slump for a second consecutive year with the #1 seed at their mercy is concerning. But the idea that lightening in a bottle can't still happen to them is for the birds. As a soccer coach I used to play for always used to say "sometimes a door can just be pushed open, sometimes you have to spend 89 minutes knocking before someone lets you in."

 

[TBBills]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I know some people like to compare the present to the past.

 

By this time in Marv Levy’s tenure (6th full season as Head Coach of the Bills), he was on his way to his 3rd Super Bowl appearance. 

How long did it take Andy Reid to win his first Super Bowl? He started HC in 1994 and didn't win one till 2019.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I just want to quote this again. This truly is an amazing stat/streak. It's more amazing than the League MVP super bowl champions drought streak that goes back to I think 1999. You have to go back to 1976 to find a HC/QB combo that won a Super Bowl after their 4th year together. 

Just to be clear, the stat is for FIRST super bowl together. Obviously, Bradshaw/Noll, Montana/Walsh, Brady Belicheck and a couple of others went on to later championships. 

 

 

2 hours ago, TBBills said:

How long did it take Andy Reid to win his first Super Bowl? He started HC in 1994 and didn't win one till 2019.

You may or may not realize that Reid was fired along the way.  And the team that fired him won a super bowl before he did. Winning a super bowl does not even necessarily generate guaranteed employment in the NFL.  Ron Rivera, Doug Pederson, and MIke McCarthy are current coaches who were all fired by their teams after post-super bowl failures.   Rivera could not replicate the magic he found with Newton.  Rodgers himself decided McCarthy was wasting his talents.   And Green Bay concurred.   Its hard to stay employed as a coach in the NFL. 

[TBBills]

34 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Just to be clear, the stat is for FIRST super bowl together. Obviously, Bradshaw/Noll, Montana/Walsh, Brady Belicheck and a couple of others went on to later championships. 

 

 

You may or may not realize that Reid was fired along the way.  And the team that fired him won a super bowl before he did. Winning a super bowl does not even necessarily generate guaranteed employment in the NFL.  Ron Rivera, Doug Pederson, and MIke McCarthy are current coaches who were all fired by their teams after post-super bowl failures.   Rivera could not replicate the magic he found with Newton.  Rodgers himself decided McCarthy was wasting his talents.   And Green Bay concurred.   Its hard to stay employed as a coach in the NFL. 

What I am saying is it's McDermott first time as HC and many of those on the list failed many times before they got onto a team that won a Super Bowl.

 

It's why the half completed list doesn't tell the real story.

Edited November 20, 2022 by TBBills

[Chaos]

16 minutes ago, TBBills said:

What I am saying is it's McDermott first time as HC and many of those on the list failed many times before they got onto a team that won a Super Bowl.

 

It's why the half completed list doesn't tell the real story.

It tells the story of the teams that WIN the super bowl.

Yes the most common patterns for the teams that WIN the super bowl are

A) 1)teams find franchise QB 2) Team has/finds coach that clicks with franchise QB 3) win Super Bowl during first four years of the combo

B) 1)Teams find franchise QB 2)Coach does NOT win with QB after several seasons) 3)team fires coach 4) Team finds coach who clicks with franchise QB 5) Team wins super bowl during first four years of new combo

What has happened only once in the Super Bowl era (1978 Madden/Stabler). 

C) 1)Team Finds with Franchise QB, 2) Team sticks with Coach Franchise QB combo more than five years. 3)Team wins super bowl. 

Past is not prologue. Anything in the future is possbible.  But the facts of what happened in the past are what they are.

NOTE: I realize many fans feel that all but the 78 Raiders won the super bowl the wrong way.  

Edited November 20, 2022 by Chaos

[Lfod]

If they fired McDermott today he would have be a head coach for a new team tomorrow.

 

If you see me at the game don't high five me when the Bills are winning i don't want to celebrate with fake fickle fans. 

 

Don't care about your SB or bust mindset, I am just happy to be entertained and don't feel entitled like a Karen screaming for the manager. 

 

You want a guarantee SB every year you missed the chance to be a bandwagon Pat's fan and truth is some of you probably are ex Pats fans come to ride the next hot hand. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Lfod

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Lfod said:

If they fired McDermott today he would have be a head coach for a new team tomorrow.

 

If you see me at the game don't high five me when the Bills are winning i don't want to celebrate with fake fickle fans. 

 

Don't care about your SB or bust mindset, I am just happy to be entertained and don't feel entitled like a Karen screaming for the manager. 

 

You want a guarantee SB every year you missed the chance to be a bandwagon Pat's fan and truth is some of you probably are ex Pats fans come to ride the next hot hand. 

Awful of lot of assuming on your part bud.  

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The contention from @Chaos is the right one - that believeing NFL success is about a slow methodical year by year build that inevitably concludes with a Superbowl - is misguided. 

 

It is, as he says, more about catching lightening in a bottle. The Rams were not the best team in football in 2021. The Bengals weren't even top 5. That was the Superbowl. It is lightening in a bottle. 

 

But the conclusion he makes that McDermott as a result should be on the hot seat is flawed. The acknowledgment that it is lightening in the bottle is a tacit acknowledgment of the element of randomness that is part of the NFL's appeal. The fact that McDermott and Allen are in year 5 together does not make it any less likely that they catch lightening in a bottle this year, or next year, than it was last year or the year after. 

 

There are legitimate reasons to ask questions of McDermott and the staff. This mid season slump for a second consecutive year with the #1 seed at their mercy is concerning. But the idea that lightening in a bottle can't still happen to them is for the birds. As a soccer coach I used to play for always used to say "sometimes a door can just be pushed open, sometimes you have to spend 89 minutes knocking before someone lets you in."

 

 

It's not all randomness though.  It's the pairing of a very good HC with a potential HOF QB often times.  "In today's NFL", look at recent SB winners.   Rams weren't the best in the NFL, but that was a loaded team--then they picked up Stafford (and Miller and OBJ).  McVay is considered possibly one who could be one "of the best HC's in NFL history" someday.  Then there is Arians getting Brady and...instant SB ring.  Andy Reid had a long career of SB/NFCC  futility...until Mahomes walked through the door.   BB stumbled on to Brady for a hand and a thumb's worth of rings. 

 

McD has had Josh from day 1.  If they don't make it this year, there is no reason to believe, by definition of the phrase, that  there is a future "lightning in a bottle" for this combo.

[Punching Bag]

Youngest head coach who won Superbowl did it after team moved to new stadium.

Clearly that is most important factor.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

What I am saying is it's McDermott first time as HC and many of those on the list failed many times before they got onto a team that won a Super Bowl.

 

It's why the half completed list doesn't tell the real story.

 

Your point and Chaos are both in synchrony though. McDermott could get fired after next season if the Bills continue to fail postseason expectations. McDermott would land with another team and if that team has a good QB and he establishes the culture and lifts the defense McDermott and new QB would win a Super Bowl in the first 4 seasons together. Meanwhile, still a good chance Josh Allen and new QB also win a super bowl in first 4 seasons together. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It is interesting but I question how many of those teams fired their coaches after 2-3 years that would have won one anyways if they stuck with said coach.  

 

Good question. The fact is we just rarely see teams hold onto non super bowl winning coaches for 10+ seasons anymore. Heck, even super bowl winning coaches have been canned in far less than 10 seasons after winning a super bowl. It would be interesting to go back and see in hindsight which teams seemed poised for a super bowl in the coming years regardless of who the coach was. That would be tricky though because you would have to filter out quite a few bad teams. 

 

Andy Reid in Philly has to be the poster child of a team believing in a non super bowl winning coach. Reid lasted 14 seasons. Ultimately he couldn't save his job from his final two seasons in Philly which saw the Eagles fall from 10-6 (WC lost) to 8-8 no playoffs and finally 4-12.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But the conclusion he makes that McDermott as a result should be on the hot seat is flawed.

 

 

I think the key is to look through things through lenses of an NFL owner or executive. It's not the fans that will decide if he is or isn't on the hot seat. And the list of super bowl winning coaches that Chaos shared suggested that it's more likely than not that very soon our own owners/GM will put McDermott on the hot seat. Owners have to find a scapegoat. They won't fire themselves. They may think it is easier to replace a quality coach than a quality GM. And everyone in the entire building knows the franchise QB isn't going anywhere.

 

That said, I do think the Bills currently constructed are one of the better well-run organizations with all pieces on the same page. I could see McDermott being the next Philly/Andy Reid should the Bills not win a super bowl in the coming 5 years. McDermott could survive. But history is against it.

[Freddie's Dead]

You lost me when you misspelled the first three names lon your list.

[MJS]

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think the key is to look through things through lenses of an NFL owner or executive. It's not the fans that will decide if he is or isn't on the hot seat. And the list of super bowl winning coaches that Chaos shared suggested that it's more likely than not that very soon our own owners/GM will put McDermott on the hot seat. Owners have to find a scapegoat. They won't fire themselves. They may think it is easier to replace a quality coach than a quality GM. And everyone in the entire building knows the franchise QB isn't going anywhere.

 

That said, I do think the Bills currently constructed are one of the better well-run organizations with all pieces on the same page. I could see McDermott being the next Philly/Andy Reid should the Bills not win a super bowl in the coming 5 years. McDermott could survive. But history is against it.

 

Oh if McDermott doesn't win one in the next 5 years he is gone. I am not even sure he will get 5 years. This year, next year, possibly one after that. 

[KHAN]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

It becomes uncomfortable when a staff passes 3 years here because it's pretty much unprecedented in this century.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

It's not all randomness though.  It's the pairing of a very good HC with a potential HOF QB often times.  "In today's NFL", look at recent SB winners.   Rams weren't the best in the NFL, but that was a loaded team--then they picked up Stafford (and Miller and OBJ).  McVay is considered possibly one who could be one "of the best HC's in NFL history" someday.  Then there is Arians getting Brady and...instant SB ring.  Andy Reid had a long career of SB/NFCC  futility...until Mahomes walked through the door.   BB stumbled on to Brady for a hand and a thumb's worth of rings. 

 

McD has had Josh from day 1.  If they don't make it this year, there is no reason to believe, by definition of the phrase, that  there is a future "lightning in a bottle" for this combo.

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

 

My point was that for McCoy, Reid, Arians, BB... "lightning in a bottle" didn't take 5 years to strike.

[BBills_88]

That will change shortly.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

My point was that for McCoy, Reid, Arians, BB... "lightning in a bottle" didn't take 5 years to strike.

 

I get that, but those situations don't make any difference to where the Bills are at.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Now do one with win percentage.

 

Coaches do not usually go on the hot seat for winning a lot of games in the regular season and winning games in the post season.

 

Bills fans are NOT patient. They are just powerless to make any changes. Otherwise, McDermott would have been gone before the end of his first year. And Josh Allen would not have even taken a snap for the Bills because fans would have traded him for Josh Rosen.

 

Many fans should be patient - patients in a psych ward.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Limeaid

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No it is not all randomness. But there is a strong element of it year to year. I don't think it not happening this year would make me think there is no reason to believe it could happen next year. 

 

That isn't to say that McDermott gets forever to have his lightening in a bottle moment. A couple more playoff failures and you have to look at whether there is a better option (not that it will be easy to find). But the scrutiny he is getting for the last two weeks is way overblown IMO. The horrible mistakes have been on the field. 

Here's my issue: when we win, it is because Josh Allen is amazing, and Ken Dorsey called good plays, and the defense has some good talent and players, and Frazier is a good DC. When we lose it is because of McDermott (plus the few whipping boys we have as players).

 

McDermott is never given credit for wins (by the fans who hate him) and is ALWAYS blamed for every loss or misfortune.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

Here's my issue: when we win, it is because Josh Allen is amazing, and Ken Dorsey called good plays, and the defense has some good talent and players, and Frazier is a good DC. When we lose it is because of McDermott (plus the few whipping boys we have as players).

 

McDermott is never given credit for wins (by the fans who hate him) and is ALWAYS blamed for every loss or misfortune.

 

Josh Allen has been getting crushed after this two-game losing streak more so than McDermott. As he should be. He knows he has to be better.

 

But if the Bills fall on their face this year and miss the playoffs, who are you going to can if you have to can one? McDermott or Allen? McDermott would be canned without hesitation even if Allen finishes the year leading the league in INT's as he currently does.

[Einstein]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The acknowledgment that it is lightening in the bottle is a tacit acknowledgment of the element of randomness 

 

Im not so sure that history shows that is random when you look at the big picture. A few years of randomness doesn’t misplace decades of opposite proof.

 

Belichick, McVay, Reid, and Tomlin have been in 15 of the last 21 Super Bowl’s.

 

Before that - Gibbs, Walsh, Parcells and Levy were in 11 of 15 Super Bowls.

 

Before that - Knoll, Landry, Madden and Shula were in 10 straight Super Bowls.

 

I don’t see much randomness in at least making a Super Bowl appearance. It seems like, outside of the random lighting in a bottle teams that make up a small percentage of Super Bowl appearances, sustained success coaches make up the majority of Super Bowl appearances and you either have one of those coaches or you don’t. 

 

 

[Einstein]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh if McDermott doesn't win one in the next 5 years he is gone. I am not even sure he will get 5 years. This year, next year, possibly one after that. 

 

Agreed that 5 years would be too long. Allen would be going into 11th season with a new head coach. Not ideal.

 

I think it’s likely they would move on from McDermott the same season that the new stadium is unveiled, which would be 3 more seasons. New digs, new coach, new direction, get the fans hyped up, etc. 

[MJS]

23 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Josh Allen has been getting crushed after this two-game losing streak more so than McDermott. As he should be. He knows he has to be better.

 

But if the Bills fall on their face this year and miss the playoffs, who are you going to can if you have to can one? McDermott or Allen? McDermott would be canned without hesitation even if Allen finishes the year leading the league in INT's as he currently does.

Bull. McDermott has received WAY more criticism than Allen, as if McDermott is out there throwing the game sealing INT's.

 

I don't want to fire either of them. I hope they are both the Bills combo for the next decade plus.

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Im not so sure that history shows that is random when you look at the big picture. A few years of randomness doesn’t misplace decades of opposite proof.

 

Belichick, McVay, Reid, and Tomlin have been in 15 of the last 21 Super Bowl’s.

 

Before that - Gibbs, Walsh, Parcells and Levy were in 11 of 15 Super Bowls.

 

Before that - Knoll, Landry, Madden and Shula were in 10 straight Super Bowls.

 

I don’t see much randomness in at least making a Super Bowl appearance. It seems like, outside of the random lighting in a bottle teams that make up a small percentage of Super Bowl appearances, sustained success coaches make up the majority of Super Bowl appearances and you either have one of those coaches or you don’t. 

 

 

So that is 15 of 42 appearances. About a third. Of which BB is 8 of those. Yea. Once you take him out it is still pretty random.

 

I am not saying coaching doesn't matter. Or that there are not good coaches, bad coaches and those in the middle. But Sean Payton is a great coach. He made 1 Superbowl. John Fox is a meh coach. He made 2.

 

30 minutes ago, MJS said:

Bull. McDermott has received WAY more criticism than Allen, as if McDermott is out there throwing the game sealing INT's.

 

I don't want to fire either of them. I hope they are both the Bills combo for the next decade plus.

 

I agree. I wouldn't can either. For me to want to fire McDermott after this season the Bills would have to miss the playoffs. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by GunnerBill