Bills once again tops in the league at 4th down decision making

[Logic]

Another year, another spot at the top of the 4th down decision making rankings (2nd tweet). And heck, they’re also quite good at converting 1st downs (1st tweet).

 

It’s almost as if Sean McDermott is actually pretty good at coaching, despite what the “trends” are telling us 😉

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

Yeah you're right... McDermott didn't build up a top notch analytics staff... he had nothing to do with that despite having total control over football operations. 

 

 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

Nonsense.

What a ridiculous thing to say.

[teef]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

he didn't?  why?  i honestly don't know why he wouldn't be.

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

 

I think he leads that parade.

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

Do we have a different Head Coach and no one told me?

 

7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

He's literally preached looking at your weak points and improving every ***** week.

[Mr Info]

Interesting stats from the same source:

Pass Protection and Run Blocking.

Pass Rush and Run Defense.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577303770589024267?s=20&t=UxjMAbkSXEk7RNUKsYv-8A

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Mr Info

[Low Positive]

I think that with some people, every bad decision was made by McDermott and every good decision must have been made by someone else. 

[Magox]

mCdeRmotT is tOo coNseRvaTivE

[Airseven]

Nice, now let's crunch those 3rd & 1 numbers. 🤣

[Matt_In_NH]

15 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

Gameday decisions start and stop with the head coach.  If he put others in place to help him make the right decisions, he still gets credit as he should.  If his instincts are bad (I think this is what you think) he could overrule the others who are helping him, but he does not, in the end, they are HIS decisions.   Nothing to do with McDermott is a ridiculous statement.

[Matt_In_NH]

15 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

Interesting stats from the same source:

Pass Protection and Run Blocking.

Pass Rush and Run Defense.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577303770589024267?s=20&t=UxjMAbkSXEk7RNUKsYv-8A

 

 

 

I guess Kromer has not had magical affects on these guys.  OL is something that can improve during the course of the season, communication among the OL and scheme changes can be adjusted.

[Big Turk]

Also shows they are pretty freaking good on offense.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577284825463287808/photo/1

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

Interesting stats from the same source:

Pass Protection and Run Blocking.

Pass Rush and Run Defense.

 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1577303770589024267?s=20&t=UxjMAbkSXEk7RNUKsYv-8A

 

 

Wow.  That run blocking graph…..LOL

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Wow.  That run blocking graph…..LOL

Did you ever see that old Steve Martin SNL bit "If I had one wish that I could wish this holiday season"? 

Well, anyway....my one wish this holiday season would be that the Bills' top offseason priority would be to build a premiere offensive line. They could literally spend their first three draft picks on offensive linemen and I would be thrilled.

For as good as Josh Allen has been so far in his career....imagine if he had an offensive line as good as Mahomes has. Imagine if he had a running game he could depend on. 

I know there are only so many resources to go around, but my god, I can't think of anything that would help this team more than finally taking the offensive line seriously. If it's an issue of money, then fine, just use a few premium draft picks on linemen and have cost controlled options there for the next four years.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

Did you ever see that old Steve Martin SNL bit "If I had one wish that I could wish this holiday season"? 

Well, anyway....my one wish this holiday season would be that the Bills' top offseason priority would be to build a premiere offensive line. They could literally spend their first three draft picks on offensive linemen and I would be thrilled.

For as good as Josh Allen has been so far in his career....imagine if he had an offensive line as good as Mahomes has. Imagine if he had a running game he could depend on. 

I know there are only so many resources to go around, but my god, I can't think of anything that would help this team more than finally taking the offensive line seriously. If it's an issue of money, then fine, just use a few premium draft picks on linemen and have cost controlled options there for the next four years.

It’s a BIG issue of money.  So much so that we will be losing pro bowl players this year. Ed will want a huge contract and he’s not even a FA.  We currently sit 4.7M OVER the cap.  If we spent our first 3 picks on OL I’d cry.  I agree that I would love to upgrade our OL, but drafting rookie OL in rd 1-3 doesn’t necessarily upgrade anything.  It could be worse.  

 

free agents- 

Poyer

Edmunds

Morse

Saffold

phillips 

singletary

crowder

quessenberry

shaq

kumerow

matakavich

van roten

sam martin

Andre smith

tawian jones

Ike

 

RFA-

Dane

dodson

cam lewis

jaquan

sweeney

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It’s a BIG issue of money.  So much so that we will be losing pro bowl players this year. Ed will want a huge contract and he’s not even a FA.  We currently sit 4.7M OVER the cap.  If we spent our first 3 picks on OL I’d cry.  I agree that I would love to upgrade our OL, but drafting rookie OL in rd 1-3 doesn’t necessarily upgrade anything.  It could be worse.  

 

free agents- 

Poyer

Edmunds

Morse

Saffold

phillips 

singletary

crowder

quessenberry

shaq

kumerow

matakavich

van roten

sam martin

Andre smith

tawian jones

Ike

 

RFA-

Dane

dodson

cam lewis

jaquan

sweeney

 

 

Fair enough.

At the risk of sounding like ScottLaw...I'd be willing to sacrifice elsewhere on the roster if it meant upgrading our offensive line. I recognize that that would mean losing some defensive firepower. However, I trust this coaching staff to develop defensive players more than I trust them to develop offensive linemen. 

Obviously it's important to keep our defense top notch. It also seems important, though, to keep Josh Allen healthy and upright and to find a way for him to not have to account for 80+% of the offensive production every week.

No easy answers, and I'm glad I'm not GM, but...I just can't shake the notion of wondering what Josh Allen and this Bills offense could look like if they actually employed a top notch o-line. One wonders if the opportunity cost of that theoretical increase in offensive production would be worth the loss of production the defense would suffer by losing a key player or two.

[TheBrownBear]

40 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Wow.  That run blocking graph…..LOL

Yeah, it speaks for itself, but I wonder how we fare if you throw out the Miami game.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah you're right... McDermott didn't build up a top notch analytics staff... he had nothing to do with that despite having total control over football operations. 

 

 

I was just gonna say…shouldn’t McDermott deserve credit for delegating these decisions 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

By staff you mean Dorsey vs Daboll. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Those decisions have NOTHING to do with McDermott, thank God.

 

But yes, as an organization, we have gotten good at this stuff.

 

McDermott's staff used to be TERRIBLE at all of this sort of thing.

 

What impressed me MOST in Baltimore was our use of clock to close out the game.

It was handled perfectly; that is a huge improvement for this staff too.

 

 

Lol

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

Fair enough.

At the risk of sounding like ScottLaw...I'd be willing to sacrifice elsewhere on the roster if it meant upgrading our offensive line. I recognize that that would mean losing some defensive firepower. However, I trust this coaching staff to develop defensive players more than I trust them to develop offensive linemen. 

Obviously it's important to keep our defense top notch. It also seems important, though, to keep Josh Allen healthy and upright and to find a way for him to not have to account for 80+% of the offensive production every week.

No easy answers, and I'm glad I'm not GM, but...I just can't shake the notion of wondering what Josh Allen and this Bills offense could look like if they actually employed a top notch o-line. One wonders if the opportunity cost of that theoretical increase in offensive production would be worth the loss of production the defense would suffer by losing a key player or two.

Yeah I hear ya.  I was hoping that upgrading the OL would be our #1 priority this past offseason.  Keep our franchise healthy and protected.  He chose the DL again.  This time around he chose the right players and it’s paying off.  
 

Beane has to choose which direction to spend and which to skimp on and develop within.  Based on their track record…..drafting OL could be a big mistake.  He’s o’fer atm imo.  The only good OL he’s drafted, he traded.  

Ford 🤮

Brown 🤮 

Doyle 🤮 

Tenuta 🤮 

 

brown isn’t a lost cause yet…. But he sucks right now imo.  

[Logic]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah I hear ya.  I was hoping that upgrading the OL would be our #1 priority this past offseason.  Keep our franchise healthy and protected.  He chose the DL again.  This time around he chose the right players and it’s paying off.  
 

Beane has to choose which direction to spend and which to skimp on and develop within.  Based on their track record…..drafting OL could be a big mistake.  He’s o’fer atm imo.  The only good OL he’s drafted, he traded.  

Ford 🤮

Brown 🤮 

Doyle 🤮 

Tenuta 🤮 

 

brown isn’t a lost cause yet…. But he sucks right now imo.  

Yeah.
 

Based on that list, Beane seems to have a simple checklist for offensive linemen: Is this man enormous? If yes, draft. If no, do not draft.

I'm thankful that we have a good left tackle and center. The other three spots continue to be in flux, and they continue to throw ***** at the wall to see what sticks. So far, not much has stuck.

I watch the Chiefs offense and it just makes me sad. Mahomes has an absolutely elite offensive line. I fully recognize that the Bills are much stronger in other areas -- namely across the entire defense. The Bills are the more complete team. Nevertheless, it's hard to watch the Chiefs offensive line and not want the same thing for Josh.

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah.
 

Based on that list, Beane seems to have a simple checklist for offensive linemen: Is this man enormous? If yes, draft. If no, do not draft.

I'm thankful that we have a good left tackle and center. The other three spots continue to be in flux, and they continue to throw ***** at the wall to see what sticks. So far, not much has stuck.

I watch the Chiefs offense and it just makes me sad. Mahomes has an absolutely elite offensive line. I fully recognize that the Bills are much stronger in other areas -- namely across the entire defense. The Bills are the more complete team. Nevertheless, it's hard to watch the Chiefs offensive line and not want the same thing for Josh.

Yeah... different GM approaches + hitting or missing on draft picks.  We’ve missed our OL picks (so far) under Beane.  KC has hit big on a couple as well as a couple misses.  Our DL vs their OL will likely determine the winner 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I can certainly agree that McDermott has improved on 4th down decisions, but I find the 100% difficult to believe. 

 

I thought he got the decision wrong a few times in the Titans game.

 

We really should've gone for it on both of these plays: 

 

4th & 1 at TEN 26

(7:25 - 2nd) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-G.Van Roten, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 26 - No Play.

 

4th & 1 at TEN 47

(8:33 - 3rd) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 47 - No Play.

 

McD had us line up and try to get the Titans to jump. When that didn't work we took a penalty instead to lead to a 4th and 6. I'm guessing this model ignores these plays due to the penalties.