My draft recap and random thoughts.

[Sierra Foothills]

On 5/1/2022 at 9:44 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

It was a nod to the fans.  very popular predraft character.

 

The fun thing about the punters taken in this draft is that the Ravens took the first punter Jordan Stout with pick 130 which the Bills gave them to move up for Elam. Then the Bills took the third punter Matt Araiza with pick 180 which they received for trading down for James Cook. Henceforth we'll always compare the  careers of those two along with Jake Carmada who Tampa Bay took at pick 133.

 

Which of the three will have the best career?

[NewEra]

45 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep........want.

 

When you put feels on the top of the chart it's always got the potential to look bad.

 

I find it funny that Beane is actively selling the idea that they aren't just going "all-in" on this season when this draft couldn't say that any more than it did.

 

And people need to remember........these dudes had a team like those 2021 Bills when they were in Carolina.........they went 14-2 and had the league MVP at QB........and BLEW IT in the SB against a team with a washed up QB who had thrown 9 TD's and 17 INT's on the season.

 

And that was it.    They fell back to earth the next season and the franchise quickly fell back into the pack.

 

Their experience has to be colored by that.   

There’s no reason for him to say he’s going all in.  
 

He knows how close this team was last year and he’s being proactive and continuing to improve the team the best he can.  I’d say he’s doing a great job.  If it weren’t for an all time coaching debacle, we may have had ourselves a Lombardi.  It’s all on McD and co now. 

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.

 

First, remember, you are new here.......I am not.   This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.

 

Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term.    That thought bothers you.

 

This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away.   Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft.  But the heart wants what it wants.

  

And on the subject of feels........nobody on here may fully understand how much immediate pressure McBeane feel after blowing a season where they should have had home field clinched on or before week 17 and instead ended up imploding in epic fashion in the final seconds in the same exact place where they got flogged the year before.   They don't have 30 years to get this done like a fan their age.  They lived thru being 14-2 and favored to win the SB over Denver........and losing........and then never getting close again.

 

So it has to be maddening and possibly a cause for anxiety to them to blow that and then watch the rest of the AFC loading up for battle in 2022.

 

Maybe the strategy works.  

 

But I have been here since the 90's.........my standards for what I want to see the Bills do in the draft are always the same..........I've repeated the philosophies hundreds of times at this point.

 

A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed.   Focus on premium positions in round 1.   Don't draft RB's in round 1.  Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.    

 

If you choose not to know or remember these things...........that's fine, they are just my opinion.........but it looks ridiculous when you try to make it out like my opinions of how the draft should be executed are a moving target when I've been re-iterating them for a long time...........and you've even weighed in on posts where I've expressed some of them.    You have a very selective memory though.........as you illustrated last week when you implied that I criticized Beane for drafting Ed Oliver when I did quite the opposite.

 

As I've said.........I really didn't like the kind of draft they just executed..........but I'm not grinding my teeth about it.    It's all entertainment.   Winning is always fun.   Bad decisions, bonehead plays and even losing can also be entertaining if you have the pastime in perspective.

 

 

 

The bolded passage actually argues IN FAVOR of the Cardinals' draft behavior: they drafted Josh Rosen as the 4th (1st round) QB in 2018, and then took another the next year (#1 overall). They were definitely not afraid to spend 1st round picks on QB consecutive years. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

The bolded passage actually argues IN FAVOR of the Cardinals' draft behavior: they drafted Josh Rosen as the 4th (1st round) QB in 2018, and then took another the next year (#1 overall). They were definitely not afraid to spend 1st round picks on QB consecutive years. 

 

That is Badol's point. He had made that argument for years. I remember him making it when I was new around here after the 2013 season going into the 2014 draft. I think it was Carr and Bridgewater we were talking about it and Badol was saying if the Bills think either of those guys is better than EJ they should pick them. 

 

 

On the draft this year I probably have a slightly more favourable view of the 1st round pick. The way I see Kaiir Elam is if he is the player the Bills think he can be then it IS re-stocking the cupboard at a premium position. Now I was a bit lower on Elam than Beane but I see the thinking - Elam is a ceiling guy. If they'd drafted McDuffie or McCreary (both of whom I had graded slightly ahead of Elam based on their tape and who they are now) those are lower ceiling guys who I don't ever see as being true #1 boundary corners. Tre White is going into year 6, age 27, and he is coming off an ACL. He is signed through 4 more seasons. That means at the end of that contract he will be 31. I doubt you want to commit top corner money to a 31 year old at that point. Maybe you move on or maybe you extend his career paying him less and moving him to safety. Who knows? But what we do know is that at exactly the point the Bills make that decision Kaiir Elam will be coming off his 4 cheap rookie contract years. That is why corner made sense to me in the 1st this year in a way it hasn't particularly any other year since we drafted Tre. Because if Kaiir works out then just as Tre stops being your well paid #1 corner, Kaiir is in exactly the position to get his and pick up the mantle. Now don't get me wrong where I think Badol and I would agree is that if one of the top 4 tackles had got to the Bills or one of the top 5 receivers it is a different question. I'd have gone offense too. But with the runs on those positions in the previous 10 picks I tnought premium position on defense made sense. Given what I have said above about the need to be continually re-stocking those spots. 

 

The rest of the draft was a bit of a meh from me. I gave it a C+. It wasn't the players I hated. I like Cook and I like Shakir and I think Spector as a 7th round special teams ace is a good pick. I don't really know much about the others. It was the strategy behind it that I was a bit more questioning and that does go back to positional value and impact. I really want to grade Elam a B+ and the rest of the draft a C+. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The fun thing about the punters taken in this draft is that the Ravens took the first punter Jordan Stout with pick 130 which the Bills gave them to move up for Elam. Then the Bills took the third punter Matt Araiza with pick 180 which they received for trading down for James Cook. Henceforth we'll always compare the  careers of those two along with Jake Carmada who Tampa Bay took at pick 133.

 

Which of the three will have the best career?

 

 i would prefer the punter who has the fewest attempts/stats.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

They blew it because their pedestrian offensive line and wide outs were dominated in the SB by that Broncos defense… 

 

It's true. While their interior OLine that year was decent with Norwell, Khalil and Turner their tackles were rookie Daryl Williams, Michael Oher who had flamed out in Baltimore and Mike Remmers who has the distinction of being the liability that cost his team two Superbowls (repeating the trick with KC in their loss to Tampa). Their starting wideouts were Ted Ginn Jnr as their #1 and rookie Devin Funchess at their #2. 

 

I should say the Bills are already a lot better at OT and WR than that Panthers team, and better built as an entire roster. But in that run of years after they drafted Cam #1 to the year right after they lost that Superbowl they spent 7 round 1&2 picks on defensive players and only 3 on offensive players (Kelvin Benjamin - bust, Amini Silatolu - bust, and Devin Funchess - JAG). Beane and McDermott were the assistants rather than the decision makers and they have talked a lot about learning the lessons of the Carolina experience, but one should definitely be saying "we have a big, strong, mobile franchise QB... we can go cheap on the perimeter and on the oline" is not a viable strategy. The Bills since they drafted Josh are 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players in the first two rounds (though they did swing that trade for Diggs as well so 5 and 3 if you include that).

[RocCityRoller]

I like a bunch of guys the Bills drafted and can understand why they took the guys they did. I can't help but think that there was better BPA/ value at the picks.

 

From the picks/ moves/ presser CB was an open sore spot on the team and they were dead set on drafting a CB in the first, and they had a short list of who they would take. Beane said that 'he (or the Bills) will sleep better at night'. Says all that needs to be said.

 

After that the draft fell weird. I like some of the guys picked after, but I could see this being a 1 starter and 1 role player type of draft.

 

Once again IOL was ignored despite good options being there in the 3rd (Parham) and even 6th round (Mays/ Salyer). Whoever is scouting IOL needs to do better or have some bigger balls at decision time. Buffalo can't keep ignoring those positions. We still have smurfs at RB.

 

All of that said I hope Elam is the CB he should be. Cook could be an Austin Ekeler type player. Bernard's size and profile is very Milano/ Matakevich like and his instincts are off the charts good, Shakir could be a Davis type steal where they selected him, Araiza should be a lot of fun to watch and talk about, and Benford was selected higher than Dane Jackson or Levi Wallace and those guys have played a lot of meaningful snaps for this staff in Buffalo. Tenuta and Spector are probably long shots, maybe PS guys.

Edited May 3, 2022 by RocCityRoller

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RocCityRoller said:

Tenuta and Spector are probably long shots, maybe PS guys.

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

[eball]

On 5/1/2022 at 1:16 PM, Virgil said:

The Edmunds plan remains and enigma to me.

 

Unless I’m completely misreading the tea leaves, the plan is obvious.  Edmunds is going to be a Bill for a long time.

 

Great recap, @NewEra

[MrEpsYtown]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's true. While their interior OLine that year was decent with Norwell, Khalil and Turner their tackles were rookie Daryl Williams, Michael Oher who had flamed out in Baltimore and Mike Remmers who has the distinction of being the liability that cost his team two Superbowls (repeating the trick with KC in their loss to Tampa). Their starting wideouts were Ted Ginn Jnr as their #1 and rookie Devin Funchess at their #2. 

 

I should say the Bills are already a lot better at OT and WR than that Panthers team, and better built as an entire roster. But in that run of years after they drafted Cam #1 to the year right after they lost that Superbowl they spent 7 round 1&2 picks on defensive players and only 3 on offensive players (Kelvin Benjamin - bust, Amini Silatolu - bust, and Devin Funchess - JAG). Beane and McDermott were the assistants rather than the decision makers and they have talked a lot about learning the lessons of the Carolina experience, but one should definitely be saying "we have a big, strong, mobile franchise QB... we can go cheap on the perimeter and on the oline" is not a viable strategy. The Bills since they drafted Josh are 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players in the first two rounds (though they did swing that trade for Diggs as well so 5 and 3 if you include that).

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the clock, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by MrEpsYtown
there is an L in clock

[Dr. Who]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep........want.

 

When you put feels on the top of the chart it's always got the potential to look bad.

 

I find it funny that Beane is actively selling the idea that they aren't just going "all-in" on this season when this draft couldn't say that any more than it did.

 

And people need to remember........these dudes had a team like those 2021 Bills when they were in Carolina.........they went 14-2 and had the league MVP at QB........and BLEW IT in the SB against a team with a washed up QB who had thrown 9 TD's and 17 INT's on the season.

 

And that was it.    They fell back to earth the next season and the franchise quickly fell back into the pack.

 

Their experience has to be colored by that.   

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, eball said:

 

Unless I’m completely misreading the tea leaves, the plan is obvious.  Edmunds is going to be a Bill for a long time.

 

Great recap, @NewEra

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

He reminds me of AJ Klein honestly. Spector is a bit smaller and more athletic and explosive. Spector should be able to gain 10 lbs in an NFL strength program and his instincts will play. I really like him.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the ####, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

I do get that. And I think that happens when you draft late in rounds..... especially in years where the Quarterbacks don't go. Before we went on the clock on Thursday night the top 4 tackles, top 2 guards and top 6 receivers were all off the board. Corner was the right pick at that point and so long as they took whichever of the ceiling guys they were higher on (I was higher on Booth but obviously injury flags and Gordon, but they were higher on Elam) then I am on board. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.

 

First, remember, you are new here.......I am not.   This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.

 

Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term.    That thought bothers you.

 

This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away.   Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft.  But the heart wants what it wants.

  

(...)

 

A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed.   Focus on premium positions in round 1.   Don't draft RB's in round 1.  Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.   

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

 

Yeah I think a lot of us wanted them to go big..........the motto coming into this draft was that they didn't have many needs...........so it came down to whether they addressed the low hanging fruit like KC did a couple years ago when they took CEH........or if they went for the longer range, find a star at a premium position kinda' route.  

 

As it turned out, the trade-up for Williams option would have been much cheaper than imagined......but Beane didn't talk to any teams prior to pick #20.......they were laser focused on what they eventually did........drafting for immediate need, regardless of value.

 

Those closing quotes in your post may have their place........but aren't necessarily applicable to a sport that punishes the undisciplined and inconsistent, IMO.

 

Long before McDermott arrived I said it here..........the draft is a process of organization building...........not an annual event to fill needs.

 

Beyond not setting yourself up for longer term success in a situation where you are going to be cap-tight for the foreseeable future..........the OTHER fallacy is just assuming that drafting for need at easier to fill positions will yield better results than taking players at more valued positions.

 

You don't even know if that will be the case in their rookie year..........we saw it in 2016 with the 3 "off the bus starters" draft........ Shaq, Ragnuts and Adolphus.

 

I heard the same arguments then when I described that draft as "uninspired".

 

We all know what happened.......NO starters.

 

But how soon we forget.

 

That's the thing with the draft.........you really can't count on a lot from year one anyway.  

 

It's a trap to assume that you can.   

 

Last year they went with an extremely raw, but big traits Pass Rusher, an over-aged Pass Rusher, then a raw LT traits OT.   On paper that shouldn't have yielded much of an early return.  

 

 Instead, they got two rookie starters who played key roles for them and one can envision them both being Bills for a decade.

 

Maybe Elam and Cook and Bernard all play key roles..........but history also shows that they very well could not.

 

Look at that 2016 draft........Shaq ended up not playing half the season but Lorenzo Alexander more than filled any expectations for him..............Ragnuts missed the whole year but Zach Brown lead the NFL in tackles.   I guess they should have won the Super Bowl.  

 

As it turned out the NEEDS that season were elsewhere.  

 

Needs are a always a moving target in the NFL.

Edited May 3, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? 

 

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

[RocCityRoller]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

Oh I agree. I just don't know if Dodson or Matakevich is cut for Spector. I could see one cut for Bernard.

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 

The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Thanks!  Appreciate it!  Will read carefully.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so. 

 

 

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness.    

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, NewEra said:

There’s no reason for him to say he’s going all in.  
 

He knows how close this team was last year and he’s being proactive and continuing to improve the team the best he can.  I’d say he’s doing a great job.  If it weren’t for an all time coaching debacle, we may have had ourselves a Lombardi.  It’s all on McD and co now. 

 

 

There is no reason to say it or agree to the suggestion.........but he's pretty determined to squash the notion to the fanbase.

 

Beane is very good at not saying things that compromise his relationship/leverage with players or agents or other teams.

 

But it is a different story with his public perception.

 

The other day he started a thought with "I don't lie".  

 

That's hysterical..........every other time his lips move it's a form of manipulation of truth.

 

Dude is a true shyster on the mic and as I've said many times..........that was exactly what the Pegula's needed in a GM.........his confidence man persona keeps their hands off the controls.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness.    

 

I believe I gave a reasonable answer.  You can disagree with that assessment.

 

You're the one who has a sweeping philosophical disagreement with the draft day decisions, overall strategy, and roster management of the Bills FO.

 

 

[In Summary]

Bernard is the manifestation of McDermott's vision of a 2022 NFL defense.  He's not going to put out a LB that isn't viable in coverage.  LB's not integral to pass rush.  Just my opinion.

Edited May 4, 2022 by In Summary

[BADOLBILZ]

16 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the clock, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

 

2019 DK Metcalf would have been the right choice in hindsight.    He's been a star since day 1.

 

Knowing what teams know today of the value of WR's...........Metcalf and AJ Brown definitely go round 1 and in hindsight Terry McLaurin as well.    The Oliver pick made sense despite being very undersized because it was presumed that he'd quickly turn into an elite interior pass rusher.   He has gradually gone form a solid player to very good one........but still hasn't turned into a finisher.   He may finally become that guy in year 4.    Undersized 3 Techs are not in short supply though so if you take one early you would hope that they produce big.  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.

 

They are both options too. I'd feel safer restructuring Tre even off the ACL than Dion. His struggles in the last year controlling is weight (which started before he had covid) would make me wary. I'd want to retain some flexibility there just in case. 

[GunnerBill]

One thing that was said to me last night which made me reflect on Bernard was whether actually this might be a second of the tweaks that they are going to give effect to on defense - maybe they want to play more 4-3 base? 

 

We know that tweak one is they want to be able to play more press on the outside. That doesn't mean they are going to play lots of man, they will still primarily be a zone defense but they want to be able to get more aggressive with their corners at the line. Beane admitted himself in his interview on H&J yesterday that they didn't feel comfortable doing that much with Dane and Levi. Their defense has primarily been to press Tre, force the QB to go away from that side and throw the safe completion short to Levi's side where he plays off and then comes up and tackles for a short gain. This now allows them the flexibility to even press on both sides simultaneously in some situations. 

 

Maybe tweak two is they want to play a bit more 4-3?. I think they are still going to be in nickel a lot but I think last year they were 100% in nickel or dime looks for like 14 of the 17 games. Maybe they want to mix that up a bit more in 2022? Edmunds would play MIKE, Milano likely SAM and let Bernard play WILL. If they feel like having upgrades on the Dline will force the ball out more quickly and lessen the need for 5 DBs in coverage maybe that's a route they go. Not as their base defense but as a change up? Just a thought. If that is the case it makes more sense to me that they prioritised a LB over a OL that might be a backup as a rookie. Dunno, just spitballing. But interesting to consider I think. 

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 5/3/2022 at 8:14 AM, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

Very interesting post.

 

As a life long Alabama Fan, I respectfully disagree with the bold, and I'll tell you why.....

 

The 2021 college football season was a strange one. Almost every team (UGA being an obvious exception) had a dropoff in talent. Think about it, Cinn. was actually a playoff team (although they of course were promptly slaughtered). This draft, for lack of a better word, sucked. For example, Alabama had only 7 players drafted. 7 players!!! In 2021 they had 6 players drafted in the first round alone, along with 2 in the second. My point? I think that both Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will have better NFL careers than Williams. Now, obviously this is not an all knowing proclamation. It is just a prediction/opinion from a fan who has seen every play of Smith and Waddle's college careers (and all of JW's in his time in Tuscaloosa). 

 

I was actually hoping that the Bills would trade down to acquire more picks in 2022, and use this draft to pick up receivers and guards (if no tackles were available) but alas; we traded UP for a first round zone corner, proving that we are still the Bills lol.

 

But as @BADOLBILZ says all the time, this is entertainment. I am not going to get crazy over this draft, and tbh, I expected nothing less. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited May 4, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

One thing that was said to me last night which made me reflect on Bernard was whether actually this might be a second of the tweaks that they are going to give effect to on defense - maybe they want to play more 4-3 base? 

 

We know that tweak one is they want to be able to play more press on the outside. That doesn't mean they are going to play lots of man, they will still primarily be a zone defense but they want to be able to get more aggressive with their corners at the line. Beane admitted himself in his interview on H&J yesterday that they didn't feel comfortable doing that much with Dane and Levi. Their defense has primarily been to press Tre, force the QB to go away from that side and throw the safe completion short to Levi's side where he plays off and then comes up and tackles for a short gain. This now allows them the flexibility to even press on both sides simultaneously in some situations. 

 

Maybe tweak two is they want to play a bit more 4-3?. I think they are still going to be in nickel a lot but I think last year they were 100% in nickel or dime looks for like 14 of the 17 games. Maybe they want to mix that up a bit more in 2022? Edmunds would play MIKE, Milano likely SAM and let Bernard play WILL. If they feel like having upgrades on the Dline will force the ball out more quickly and lessen the need for 5 DBs in coverage maybe that's a route they go. Not as their base defense but as a change up? Just a thought. If that is the case it makes more sense to me that they prioritised a LB over a OL that might be a backup as a rookie. Dunno, just spitballing. But interesting to consider I think. 

 

 

 

 

It's the best way to explain their tunnel vision on getting a press-man cornerback and really the only explanation for the Bernard pick, IMO.

 

My one oft-vocalized complaint about the defense under McDermott has been that for all of the investments they've made in defensive personnel........and all of the continuity they have had in the back 7............they haven't been able to make broad schematic adjustments for different opponents.

 

Against KC the Bills have sort of fallen into the rut that Pittsburgh had against New England for so many years...........the Steelers lack of ability to mix man coverages with their preferred zone looks made them easy pickings for Brady.

 

I'm sure the Bills were very aware that it was a weakness but the way Cinci adapted their defense to win two road games and reach the Super Bowl probably underscored the value in that.

 

The question, of course, is whether they are robbing Peter on offense to pay Paul on defense.       

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Very interesting post.

 

As a life long Alabama Fan, I respectfully disagree with the bold, and I'll tell you why.....

 

The 2021 college football season was a strange one. Almost every team (UGA being an obvious exception) had a dropoff in talent. Think about it, Cinn. was actually a playoff team (although they of course were promptly slaughtered). This draft, for lack of a better word, sucked. For example, Alabama had only 7 players drafted. 7 players!!! In 2021 they had 6 players drafted in the first round alone, along with 2 in the second. My point? I think that both Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will have better NFL careers than Williams. Now, obviously this is not an all knowing proclamation. It is just a prediction/opinion from a fan who has seen every play of Smith and Waddle's college careers (and all of JW's in his time in Tuscaloosa). 

 

I was actually hoping that the Bills would trade down to acquire more picks in 2022, and use this drat to pick up receivers and guards (if no tackles were available) but alas; we traded UP for a first round zone corner, proving that we are still the Bills lol.

 

But as @BADOLBILZ says all the time, this is entertainment. I am not going to get crazy over this draft, and tbh, I expected nothing less. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course, now that things have played out the way they have, I rather selfishly hope you are right. It's a reasonable take.

Oh, and as a Dawgs fan, it was almost a relief, though also gratifying, to finally get past Nick Saban. I was a young man when we won with Herschel. How time flies . . . 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 5/1/2022 at 12:24 PM, NewEra said:

. Some saw him as a 3rd value….which is basically where we drafted him.  He wasn’t going to be there in rd 3 for us, so we got him where we had to get him

I have to ask @NewEra, why was it a mistake to draft Breece Hall with the 25th pick knowing that he wasn't going to be there at 57 but it's okay to draft Cook a whole round early? If Beane only had 15 1st rd graded players, by the time the Bills chose they were looking at 2nd rd graded players anyway. I always felt that Levi was a weak link on the back end and the Bills needed an upgrade. I just felt that with Hall the Bills were getting a Cook/upgraded Motor in one. 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 5/3/2022 at 8:20 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I do get that. And I think that happens when you draft late in rounds..... especially in years where the Quarterbacks don't go. Before we went on the clock on Thursday night the top 4 tackles, top 2 guards and top 6 receivers were all off the board. Corner was the right pick at that point and so long as they took whichever of the ceiling guys they were higher on (I was higher on Booth but obviously injury flags and Gordon, but they were higher on Elam) then I am on board. 

@GunnerBill, what were your thoughts on Coby Bryant? He was the Jim Thorpe award winner. His measurables are complimentary to Elam and got a lot of work in college because teams didn't throw at Sauce. 

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I have to ask @NewEra, why was it a mistake to draft Breece Hall with the 25th pick knowing that he wasn't going to be there at 57 but it's okay to draft Cook a whole round early? If Beane only had 15 1st rd graded players, by the time the Bills chose they were looking at 2nd rd graded players anyway. I always felt that Levi was a weak link on the back end and the Bills needed an upgrade. I just felt that with Hall the Bills were getting a Cook/upgraded Motor in one. 

Because rb wasn’t the only need.  It wasn’t the biggest need.  They CLEARLY used this draft for current need. In your opinion, rb was the biggest need. Most people, viewed CB as our biggest need AND is a premium position.  It was a no brainer.  Hall was plan B.  He was never plan A.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because rb wasn’t the only need.  It wasn’t the biggest need.  They CLEARLY used this draft for current need. In your opinion, rb was the biggest need. Most people, viewed CB as our biggest need AND is a premium position.  It was a no brainer.  Hall was plan B.  He was never plan A.

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@GunnerBill, what were your thoughts on Coby Bryant? He was the Jim Thorpe award winner. His measurables are complimentary to Elam and got a lot of work in college because teams didn't throw at Sauce. 

 

Think he is a good player. Think his ceiling is #2 corner but he can be a very serviceable one.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

Couldn’t agree with you any more than I do.  

[Orlando Tim]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

The EJ Manuel comment is telling in that within 1 year no one remembers all the details around the pick, just was it a good one. Hopefully Cook makes us look smart

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

And I'd add couple of other things.  One is that Hall wasn't projected as a truly game-changing player.   The Bills weren't particularly interested in replacing Singletary with someone better, and although Hall might have been better, he didn't offer anything that would make the offense a lot better, unless he turns out to be a Hall of Famer.   He just didn't offer that much.  Cook is purely additive to the offense - he gives the Bills the opportunity to get all the same touches to Singletary AND get 10-12 touches or more to an additional guy with speed and elusiveness, and element the Bills needed.   So, especially in the first round, Hall didn't look like a guy who was going to make the team substantially better.  

 

Second, what Grundy says is wrong.  In the first round, the Bills weren't looking at guys with a second-round grade.  If all their first-round grades were taken, Beane has said he would have tried to trade out of 25.   They had a guy with a first-round grade, and they went after him, in part because he fit the primary need of the team and in part because he was a first-round.  graded  guy.  

 

To suggest that Beane somehow did the opposite with Cook in the second round, which Grundy said, is technically right but functionally wrong.  Beane knew he was taking a guy with a third-grade, and he traded back twice.   He was at the very tail end of the second round, so if he reached into the third round, he only reached by a pick or two.  

 

By the way, does everyone remember when Buddy Nix traded back twice in the first round before taking EJ Manuel.  The trade backs were smart moves, the Manuel pick, not so much.

 

Dead right on the second round. They took a high 3rd round grade by their board. Sometimes at the end of rounds that is what you are faced with doing. If you are faced with doing that then you try and maximise your value by trading down. The Bills took two below trade value chart trade downs which I think shows you they didn't think they had a guy sticking out and they were just trying to get whatever they could before making a pick. Beane said on H&J the other morning they had "3 or 4 guys they were comfortable with" and that after the first trade down all of them were still on the board but between the 2nd trade down and our eventual pick one went. That means one of Cam Taylor-Britt, Drake Jackson and Bryan Cook was in the mix for them. I suspect that was Cook based on their consistent interest in safeties during this draft season. Not saying Bryan Cook was higher than James Cook on their board, just that he was one of their guys in the mix and once that group of 3 or 4 guys started to be raided then Beane decided to stand pat and make the pick. 

 

I think Buddy only traded down once for EJ. #8 to #16 as a I recall it. And he got a 2nd round pick out of it I think.