What would you do with the new OT rule? Defer or take the ball?

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I look at it exactly the opposite way.

 

Team 1 has little control because they have no way of knowing what team 2 will do.  They are trying to score, but then have to decide on going for 2.  No matter what they do - they can not win on that first drive - only dictate what team #2 needs to do to win.

 

Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win when they get the ball.  Did team 1 punt or kick a FG?  Did they score and kick and XP or get stopped at the 45 yard line?  Did they get a TD and make a 2 pt or miss the 2 point conversion?  Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win and prevent team 1 from getting the ball back.

 

Literally the only way team 1 is guaranteed to get the 3rd possession is a TD and 2 pt on the first drive - even then they don’t win - they only guaranteed a shot with the 3 possession.  The 2nd team gets the ball and in most instances has a shot to win the game on their possession.

 

 

While I agree with much of what your saying about the reasons for the getting the ball second (especially because we have Allen), I want to make one important correction. 
 

You said the only way for a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a td and 2pt on the first drive. This is wrong. The 3rd possession can happen multiple ways. 
-both team fail to score and punt. 
-both teams have turnovers/turnover on downs.
-both teams score field goals

-both teams score td and xp

-both teams score td and 2pt

 

Many of us Bills fans are viewing this OT rule through the lens of the Bills/Chiefs playoff game, and acting as if it’s a given both teams score td’s, but that’s not the case. 

6 minutes ago, The Red King said:

One advantage to getting it first.  If you drive deep but don't score, you punt and pin them very deep, maybe even close to their goal line.  Get a three and out and you get good field position and only need a FG now for the win.

Many are not considering this part in having the ball first. This is the reason I keep saying the right answer is highly dependent on the game/game flow. 

[Max Fischer]

I'd defer because I want to know what I need to do. I'd hate to have the ball first and have to decide to kick an easy FG or attempt a difficult fourth down. If you have the ball second that decision is made for you. 

[Tanoros]

7 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I was extremely excited last season, but going into this season is the most optimistic I’ve EVER been. We are stacked in nearly every facet of the game. I feel like our defense is now getting to the point where they are talented enough to win games on their own, let alone thinking we have a crew of honey badgers on offense. I honestly could see an undefeated season this year if we have a really good draft. 

I love your optimism, and this is also the best I’ve felt about an upcoming season in along time. However, adversity is a common theme in the NFL, and the 2022 Bills will face it as well. Most likely that adversity leads to losing a game or two. However, Allen is the key. Depending on his play, your guess could be spot on. If Allen plays anything close to playoff Allen most/all of next season. Man, we will be very hard to beat, much less force a punt 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I did not bold it - you did when you quoted me.

 

 

Yes, I bolded it because I was pointing out the way you worded it sounded like you meant as fact. No big deal either way.....

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

I love your optimism, and this is also the best I’ve felt about an upcoming season in along time. However, adversity is a common theme in the NFL, and the 2022 Bills will face it as well. Most likely that adversity leads to losing a game or two. However, Allen is the key. Depending on his play, your guess could be spot on. If Allen plays anything close to playoff Allen most/all of next season. Man, we will be very hard to beat, much less force a punt 😉

Allen is reaching new levels of play. I honestly believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. Imagine what he would do with another high end speed WR. Allen is going to be the greatest player to ever play the game when all said and done, I’m fully convinced. Imagine what he would do with better line play and a receiving back. I think this is the year everyone in the league will be picking their jaws off the floor. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Great discussion. 

I understand the logic and points made by the folks choosing to defer. And they are all valid points.  I get the emotion of taking the ball and going out to win the game like in the past.

At first I said take the ball, but reading the whole thread I'm changing my mind to defer. 

[Tanoros]

32 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

And you get 4 downs the whole drive. Deferring offers a lot of benefits. Going first is only a benefit if you elect to go for 2 and go up 8 points. 

Why are so many saying going first only offers benefit if scoring 8 points? Last I checked scoring wasn’t automatic. There are several ways to bring about a 3rd possession, and not all OT’s come about because two offenses are unstoppable.

-turnovers, punting, trading fg’s. There are several ways in which the third possession can come about. While I agree with the sentiment of taking the ball second, I don’t think it’s such an obvious choice. 

[Rochesterfan]

4 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

While I agree with much of what your saying about the reasons for the getting the ball second (especially because we have Allen), I want to make one important correction. 
 

You said the only way for a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a td and 2pt on the first drive. This is wrong. The 3rd possession can happen multiple ways. 
-both team fail to score and punt. 
-both teams have turnovers/turnover on downs.
-both teams score field goals

-both teams score td and xp

-both teams score td and 2pt

 

Many of us Bills fans are viewing this OT rule through the lens of the Bills/Chiefs playoff game, and acting as if it’s a given both teams score td’s, but that’s not the case. 

Many are not considering this part in having the ball first. This is the reason I keep saying the right answer is highly dependent on the game/game flow. 

 

No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee  a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion.  All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.

 

The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death.  That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.

 

There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession.  Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.

 

 

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Allen is reaching new levels of play. I honestly believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. Imagine what he would do with another high end speed WR. Allen is going to be the greatest player to ever play the game when all said and done, I’m fully convinced. Imagine what he would do with better line play and a receiving back. I think this is the year everyone in the league will be picking their jaws off the floor. 

I agree with all you said about Allen. I also strongly believe he will be considered the best to ever play when it’s all said and done. I hope this upcoming season we get to see both Knox and Davis break out (among others, namely some defensive guys). 

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

I agree with all you said about Allen. I also strongly believe he will be considered the best to ever play when it’s all said and done. I hope this upcoming season we get to see both Knox and Davis break out (among others, namely some defensive guys). 

This team is going to be so great this year, it will be talked about with a lot of the other great teams in history. Our defense was already top in pressures, and we added Miller who by himself adds nearly half of our teams stats. Plus we bring back White on top of all that. Not even including the draft. This team is absolutely going to MAUL teams and it’s going to be a thing of beauty. I would not be surprised if this team sets the offensive ppg NFL record and the defensive fewest points allowed record at the same time. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[Tanoros]

4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee  a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion.  All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.

 

The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death.  That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.

 

There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession.  Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.

 

 

True, I missed the most important word of your previous post. Your point about team 1 not being able to win with their first possession is true, and I do think the trend will be for teams to defer (at-least at the start). However, there is certainly merit to taking the ball first and having the option for a 3rd possession. 
 

For instance, with Allen I’d feel comfortable with him driving down and scoring a td on the first possession. Namely, because Allen can convert even 3rd and longs with relative ease (at least compared to just about everyone else besides Mahomes), and I’d feel really good about Allen getting us into fg distance on a 3rd drive. Also, I trust our defense to hold in a 2pt attempt, at least, enough to take the chance. 
 

Question for you. If we got the ball first, do you automatically go for 2 every time (playoff OT)? Situation dependent? I do trust Allen going for 2, but I’d still go for the xp, unless our defense couldn’t stop anything (like our last game). 

 

[Milanos Milano]

I’d almost trade a lot of our picks just to get Sauce Gardner. Nobody is stopping us with White, Gardner, Hyde, and Poyer. 

[Tanoros]

4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

This team is going to be so great this year, it will be talked about with a lot of the other great teams in history. Our defense was already top in pressures, and we added Miller who by himself adds nearly half of our teams stats. Plus we bring back White on top of all that. Not even including the draft. This team is absolutely going to MAUL teams and it’s going to be a thing of beauty. I would not be surprised if this team sets the offensive ppg NFL record and the defensive fewest points allowed record at the same time. 

Your a Breece Hall in the first guy right? I’ve been warming up to that possibility myself. Either way, I just want our team to come out of the draft with atleast 1 playmaker and a couple solid starters/depth pieces. If the playmaker is a cb, wr, rb, whatever, I just want someone who will make an impact year 1 and help push us over the top. 

[Patrick Duffy]

I still believe it depends on certain situations and who the opponent is. In an offensive fire power game like Buf/KC was I can see why deferring is better. But games like Washington vs Eagles etc with mostly defensive game I would take ball. Also if those kinds of teams/games I feel they both kick XP 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

Your a Breece Hall in the first guy right? I’ve been warming up to that possibility myself. Either way, I just want our team to come out of the draft with atleast 1 playmaker and a couple solid starters/depth pieces. If the playmaker is a cb, wr, rb, whatever, I just want someone who will make an impact year 1 and help push us over the top. 

Yes I like Hall. But I just want play makers, don’t really care who. If we trade up and get Sauce Gardner, I’d be happy to. Just get us a difference maker. 

[Tanoros]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

Yes I like Hall. But I just want play makers, don’t really care who. If we trade up and get Sauce Gardner, I’d be happy to. Just get us a difference maker. 

I’m so curious to see what we do at cb. This will be very telling for us long term how the Bills value cb (or Tre is making a remarkable recovery). I kinda want to see us get 3 picks in the first two rounds, which most likely with 2 second round picks. So either a trade up, or a trade down (then still moving around a bit to get “our” guys). 
 

There’s a good chance we can get a good cb at 25 and then move up and get Hall. That would be a great scenario for us. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

The reason coach’s defer is this

Quote

Some believe coaches are waiting until the second half to get a better feel for how the opposing team is performing. Others think it could be a matter of “herd mentality.” It’s possible that weather is a factor in decision-making. Or, maybe it’s just the thing to do these days. Regardless, it seems like everyone is doing it.

https://www.sportscasting.com/why-do-nfl-teams-defer-after-winning-the-coin-toss/?amp
 

by the end of the 4th one would think you had a “feel“ of what they are doing!

 

Quote

ouston Texans’ special teams coach Brad Seely explained that it “comes down to the chance to pair a score at the end of the first half with one at the start of the second. It’s the only opportunity a team has for two straight possessions and can be a chance to instantly put the game out of reach

which is not relevant with OT

Edited March 29, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[GETTOTHE50]

You always ALWAYS receive. 
 

You always want to score first and get on the board first. 

[billykay]

4 hours ago, SWATeam said:

There's very little benefit in taking the ball.  If you defer you know exactly what you need to win.

Plus you get 4 downs.

[Utah John]

The only reason I can see not to defer is this:  Deferring means you're putting your tired defense back on the field.  The other team's offense gets the ball and takes five minutes to score on your tired D, while THEIR defense is sitting and resting.  

[Virgil]

You have to take the ball in a purely offensive game.   Assume both teams will score and that you’ll get the ball again for a sudden death drive.  
 

Now, whether you go for 2 or not is the question.   
 

Regardless, whoever wins the coin toss has complete control over the outcome. 

[What a Tuel]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee  a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion.  All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.

 

The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death.  That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.

 

There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession.  Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.

 

 

 

Team one can guarantee a 3rd possession by limiting the opposing offense to whatever they scored or ending the game with a stop.

 

Team 1 scores a td and a 2 pt conversion

Team 2 can be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a td and a 2 pt conversion

 

Team 1 scores a TD and an extra point.

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a TD, be stopped from scoring an extra point to force a 3rd possession, be stopped from scoring a td and a risky 2 pt conversion.

 

Team 1 scores a field goal

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a field goal, be stopped from scoring a td

 

Team 1 scores nothing

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether or game over. 

 

Why would you want to let the opposing team dictate what you need to do?

 

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by What a Tuel

[Virgil]

The benefits of going second is know what you need to match with score, always going for it on 4th, and potentially win the game by going for 2. 
 

However, if they starting team goes for 2 and gets it, then the 2nd team is completely at the mercy of their defense, as if the rule never changed.  
 

I’ll take the ball every time and I’m going for 2

[Maybe Someday]

You take the ball every time, try to score and put the pressure on the other team. Even if the other team scores I think they kick the XP to tie and keep the game going 99% of the time. I can’t see any team going for 2 in OT of a playoff game unless you don’t trust your kicker or your defense. 

 

I think some of you put too much into analytics in that situation. Definitely more than most NFL coaches do. The few coaches that did use analytics a lot didn’t make the playoffs. 
 

 

[Orlando Tim]

If I have the better offense I take the ball knowing that if we both score I can end it, if my defense is awesome I kick to see what I have to do. If the question is only about the Bills, we have Josh, give him the ball as much as possible 

[Ralonzo]

Defer to when? Next game?

[nedboy7]

Dare I say I think both are acceptable.  And that’s the point of changing the rules. Really depends on the flow of the game and how the D/O are playing.  Maybe the D needs a rest.  Maybe you wanna attack a depleted defense.  I hate to see what the reaction is when McD has to make this decision.  
 

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by nedboy7

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

The benefits of going second is know what you need to match with score, always going for it on 4th, and potentially win the game by going for 2. 
 

However, if they starting team goes for 2 and gets it, then the 2nd team is completely at the mercy of their defense, as if the rule never changed.  
 

I’ll take the ball every time and I’m going for 2

I’ll take the ball every time and not gamble on the 49% 2pt conversion rate 

24 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

Defer to when? Next game?

exactly.  

[Augie]

7 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Shout Box wants to know 

 

what would you do?

 

Take the 27 mph wind at your back! 

[klos63]

Take the ball, in the KC game with the new rule, If Allen leads us to a TD to tie, KC gets the ball next in sudden death. I'd assume both teams will score.

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Team one can guarantee a 3rd possession by limiting the opposing offense to whatever they scored or ending the game with a stop.

 

Team 1 scores a td and a 2 pt conversion

Team 2 can be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a td and a 2 pt conversion

 

Team 1 scores a TD and an extra point.

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a TD, be stopped from scoring an extra point to force a 3rd possession, be stopped from scoring a td and a risky 2 pt conversion.

 

Team 1 scores a field goal

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether, be stopped from scoring a field goal, be stopped from scoring a td

 

Team 1 scores nothing

Team 2 can either be stopped altogether or game over. 

 

Why would you want to let the opposing team dictate what you need to do?

 

 

 

None of those are guaranteed to happen.

 

You could go first and fumble the kickoff and lose before your offense ever gets out and that is a viable outcome.

 

The point being - if you take the ball first because you want the ball first in Sudden Death - you are already looking past the first 2 drives and are assuming you will still be tied - so you can then get the ball to win.

 

The reality is whoever gets the ball first can do any number of things from punting, getting stopped on downs, turnovers, safety, field goals, TDs, and TDs with 2 point conversion.

 

The 2nd team has the exact same ability to do all same things, but with an advantage - they know exactly what they need to do to win.  That does not mean they can do it, but they know exactly what must be done.

 

Essentially after team 1 goes and does whatever they are going to do - it almost immediately becomes sudden death because if you kicked a field goal - the other team knows a TD wins.  You score a TD and kick the XP - they know to avoid the third possession- go for two - I will win or lose right then.

 

Why would I want another team to dictate what I am doing - I don’t want them to dictate - I want to know what I have to do to win the game.  Team 2 could could just as easily stop team 1 - the difference is the 4th downs.

 

Team one faces a 4th and 4 at the 30 yard line on the opening drive - do they kick the FG or do they go for it.  Most likely they are kicking the FG to get the score.

 

Team 2 faces the same decision 4th and 4 at the 30 yard line after holding the other team to a FG - what decision do you make?  Because they know team 1 then can win with any score - I think teams are more likely to go for it and win or lose that way.

 

Think of the Bills going for the win in Tennessee rather than tying the game.  It might not always work, but if I am a coach - I want that option of playing a drive to win at the end.

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Too much to sort through but. my suggestion is the winner of toss likely does not "defer," they choose an End Zone to defend.  Thus they get benefit of knowing if they must use 4th downs to extend a TD matching drive and any wind advantage.  I'd make the team scoring a TD on a 1st OT possession kick xp.  Second team must follow with 2 PT try assuming the kick was made.  Two matching FGs put the game into sudden death (an advantage for team with the 1st possession of OT.)

 

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Maybe Someday said:

You take the ball every time, try to score and put the pressure on the other team. Even if the other team scores I think they kick the XP to tie and keep the game going 99% of the time. I can’t see any team going for 2 in OT of a playoff game unless you don’t trust your kicker or your defense. 

 

I think some of you put too much into analytics in that situation. Definitely more than most NFL coaches do. The few coaches that did use analytics a lot didn’t make the playoffs. 
 

 

 

So you think a coach that just watched a team drive down the field to score on your defense and then you matched - you now know that it will go to sudden death and you may never touch the ball and you think the majority of coaches go for the tie.

 

No way - this is not the 70’s - we saw it play out a bunch during the season - many teams even in the regular season went for 2 and the win.  In addition- several teams passed on tying FGs to try and score TDs to win games.

 

I think there would be a rare coach that might try to tie, but I think the majority go for the win.

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

16 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Take the ball, in the KC game with the new rule, If Allen leads us to a TD to tie, KC gets the ball next in sudden death. I'd assume both teams will score.

 

So the question becomes quite simply if you take the Ball and Allen leads us to a TD - are you kicking the XP or going for 2.  Because if you take the ball and are assuming both teams are going to score - I can assure you Reid would be going for 2 on his terms to keep the ball from Allen on the sudden death round.

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

12 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

So the question becomes quite simply if you take the Ball and Allen leads us to a TD - are you kicking the XP or going for 2.  Because if you take the ball and are assuming both teams are going to score - I can assure you Reid would be going for 2 on his terms to keep the ball from Allen on the sudden death round.

 

 

If the game is anything like we saw couple months ago I believe you go for 2.

[Norcalbillsfan]

Comes down to momentum to me, if the bills just drove the feild and scored to tie the game and the crowd is going wild, I'd take the ball first. Our if my defense needs a breather take the ball. Otherwise I like ball second, If you have a great 2 point play that you feel good about I think differing is a solid strategy.

[klos63]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

So the question becomes quite simply if you take the Ball and Allen leads us to a TD - are you kicking the XP or going for 2.  Because if you take the ball and are assuming both teams are going to score - I can assure you Reid would be going for 2 on his terms to keep the ball from Allen on the sudden death round.

 

 

good question.  Do you think McD would have gone for 2 if we got the ball back and scored in OT?  Probably.

 

Would certainly make for exciting finishes, as if we need anything more exciting than last years game.

[Maybe Someday]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

So you think a coach that just watched a team drive down the field to score on your defense and then you matched - you now know that it will go to sudden death and you may never touch the ball and you think the majority of coaches go for the tie.

 

No way - this is not the 70’s - we saw it play out a bunch during the season - many teams even in the regular season went for 2 and the win.  In addition- several teams passed on tying FGs to try and score TDs to win games.

 

I think there would be a rare coach that might try to tie, but I think the majority go for the win.

 

 

Assuming your defense hasn’t been depleted by injury and they’ve made some stops in the game already, yes. You trust your players to make plays. If you don’t you lose the game and the locker room. 
 

How many of those teams that went for 2 and the win in the regular season converted?  How many were playoff teams? Could be wrong but I don’t recall any. The teams that tried on a regular basis did so because they knew they weren’t good enough and had nothing to lose. 

 

[What a Tuel]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

None of those are guaranteed to happen.

 

You could go first and fumble the kickoff and lose before your offense ever gets out and that is a viable outcome.

 

The point being - if you take the ball first because you want the ball first in Sudden Death - you are already looking past the first 2 drives and are assuming you will still be tied - so you can then get the ball to win.

 

The reality is whoever gets the ball first can do any number of things from punting, getting stopped on downs, turnovers, safety, field goals, TDs, and TDs with 2 point conversion.

 

The 2nd team has the exact same ability to do all same things, but with an advantage - they know exactly what they need to do to win.  That does not mean they can do it, but they know exactly what must be done.

 

Essentially after team 1 goes and does whatever they are going to do - it almost immediately becomes sudden death because if you kicked a field goal - the other team knows a TD wins.  You score a TD and kick the XP - they know to avoid the third possession- go for two - I will win or lose right then.

 

Why would I want another team to dictate what I am doing - I don’t want them to dictate - I want to know what I have to do to win the game.  Team 2 could could just as easily stop team 1 - the difference is the 4th downs.

 

Team one faces a 4th and 4 at the 30 yard line on the opening drive - do they kick the FG or do they go for it.  Most likely they are kicking the FG to get the score.

 

Team 2 faces the same decision 4th and 4 at the 30 yard line after holding the other team to a FG - what decision do you make?  Because they know team 1 then can win with any score - I think teams are more likely to go for it and win or lose that way.

 

Think of the Bills going for the win in Tennessee rather than tying the game.  It might not always work, but if I am a coach - I want that option of playing a drive to win at the end.

 

 

 

By scoring first you set the tone. Maybe a bit of desperation and panic in the other team. Maybe they make a mistake trying to force something. Meanwhile if you take the ball first, you are on your terms, not desperation mode.

 

Kick a field goal? Ok stop them from getting a TD.

Score a TD? Ok stop them from getting a TD. 

 

You are playing on your terms.

[Thurman#1]

It'd defend on the game situation somewhat. 

 

Is your offense moving well right now? Is your defense exhausted? Is the wind much better in one direction than the other?

 

But all things equal, I'd defer. IMO the computer simulations will show this to be the best tack and it'll be what we see.