You don't draft a guard in the 1st ... or do you?

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no I called it irrelevant because it was irrelevant.

 

Having literally everything to do with drafting an OL in the first round doesn't mean it's therefore relevant. You could say, "The OLs drafted in the first round have all had last names starting in consonants." True or not, that would have been all about drafting OLs in the first, and completely irrelevant.

 

You said, "My wording was lazy.  I just don't think taking the 3rd, 4th or 5th best OL that early is smart. "

 

Irrelevant. Whether your OL is the 1st, 3rd, 4th or 5th best OL has zero importance. All that matters is whether or not he's good enough to be picked as BPA where their pick is.

 

The folks who've already been picked are irrelevant to your decision when it's your pick. Only the unpicked prospects matter.

 

If the Bills have a guard evaluated with a grade of 8.1, and no other player above 8.0 is left on their board, it would be completely irrelevant whether before the draft the Bills had that guard as the best OL or the 5th best. If they'd had five OLs ahead of him, with grades of 8.2 to 8.5, and those five are gone, they're as irrelevant as any of the other players who'd already been taken. Completely so. It only matters who's BPA on the board at a position of need.

 

 

This really seems to bother you.  For that, I am sorry.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/3/2022 at 5:08 AM, Gugny said:

 

This really seems to bother you.  For that, I am sorry.

 

 

Don't be sorry.

 

You seem desperate to believe I'm angry or that you bothered me. You flatter yourself.

 

Again, when I see stupid ideas posted, sometimes I point out how stupid they are. It's no bother at all.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

After retaining Bates for 4 years I’d like an OG in the 5th round at the earliest, maybe 4th, but I think that’s a good spot to take a rb.

[GunnerBill]

On 4/2/2022 at 8:30 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

Yeah my next step in this story was to look at other positions to see which ones led to the most Chips. Thanks for doing that. 

 

I also think the pure numbers are relevant here. 13 of those guys were selected as guards (Leatherwood, Howard, Fluker, Pugh and Flowers were all selected as tackles and busted). 

 

So 13 times an NFL team felt like there was a guard worthy of a first round selection. Let's leave out AVT because it is too early to make a judgment either way. We are down to 12. Seven of the remaining 12 have made pro-bowls. The exceptions are Cooper, Warmack, Garnett who are the three busts. Then Zeitler who has been a solid player but not a difference maker and Lindstrom who has improved each year and is very likely heading towards pro-bowl and even possible all pro honours. 

 

So let's say it is 8 of 12 who are at least pro-bowl level players (5 of 12 are all-pros). That tells its own story IMO. It tells you that NFL teams are only willing to select a guard in round 1 if they think he has pro-bowl level potential. And they are generally pretty good at getting that right. 

 

Now personally my threashold would be "all pro level potential" and while I have only been grading players since 2014 the only guys I on that list I had 1sts on were Martin, Scherff, Nelson and AVT. It is also worth saying I actually had Scherff graded as a tackle with guard flex (but I include him as a pure guard for these purposes because Washington put him there right away), and Martin and AVT as guards with tackle flex. I have had a 5th guard with a 1st round grade - Forest Lamp - but he was taken in the 2nd and flamed out with a comination of scheme changes and injuries. 

 

So maybe the NFL sets its bar slightly less high to take a guard than I would, but I think it sets it signifcantly higher than it does for most other spots. If they think a guy can just be a "good starting guard for a decade" they don't ordinarily take that guy in round one. They'd rather take a shot at a guy at a premium position. Let me give an example - AJ Cann. In that 2015 class he was talked about as a possible late first rounder coming out of South Carolina. I believe Kiper had a first round grade on him. But he fell in the end to the top of the 3rd where Jacksonville took him. He has been for the most part a solid starting guard. The Jags extended him and he played two contracts (7 seasons total) there as a starter. He got hurt last year and they didn't extend him again so he signed for Houston as a FA last month. He has had a better career than a lot of WRs and Corners and Edge players taken ahead of him and that was pretty predictable at draft time. But a guy who is just a solid starter for 7 years at guard is a third round pick. 

 

So that is the question teams have to ask themsleves on Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson this year. If their answer on pro-bowl potential is "yes" then they will be first rounders (my guess is at least one if not both are - 'cos it only takes one team to think that) but if teams ask are these regular pro-bowl level talents and the answer is "no" then they could slip into day 2 even if teams think they are better players than say, the 6th wide receiver or the 7th corner. And the reason for that is teams know that the opportunity cost of using that premium asset on a non-premium position is significant.

 

In conclusion, Thurm isn't wrong to question the "never take a guard in round 1" argument. However, the premise should be only take a guard in round one in exceptional circumstances and teams should, and seemingly do, really test themselves on what they are doing when they are about to pull that trigger. If they have any doubt, or it is close between guard and a premium position, they should always go elsewhere.

Edited April 4, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Gugny]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't be sorry.

 

You seem desperate to believe I'm angry or that you bothered me. You flatter yourself.

 

Again, when I see stupid ideas posted, sometimes I point out how stupid they are. It's no bother at all.

 

Ahhh, there it is.  The uncalled for insult.  You never disappoint.

 

Oh ... by the way, pumpkin ... you really are upset because you haven't been able to let this go for over a week.  😘

[Thurman#1]

50 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Ahhh, there it is.  The uncalled for insult.  You never disappoint.

 

Oh ... by the way, pumpkin ... you really are upset because you haven't been able to let this go for over a week.  😘

 

 

Dude, you seem desperate to kid yourself that I'm angry, upset ... this is like four or five posts in which you've desolately claimed that you think I'm angry, and that it's your post that caused it. The "uncalled for insult" was to your idea, not you. I called it stupid because it was stupid. 

 

And isn't it interesting that it's not only me who has hung on so long? This seems to mean a lot to you.

 

Honestly, if some merkin on the internet whom I've never met and never expect to says something stupid, it just doesn't affect me. I mean, not in the slightest.

 

But I'll tell you what, would it make you happy if I pretend? Anything for you. How's this?

 

"Damn it. I'm just ferociously upset. I mean, something dumb was said on the internet!! When that happens, I just get so irate!! Why, I'm incandescent with rage that some stranger believes something nonsensical!! Irate doesn't even begin to say it. I'm seething. I'm incensed!! I'm apoplectic some guy on the internet believes some total poppycock!! I hate those meeces to pieces!!! Oh, the fury! I'm hacked off. I'm steamed up. I am registering umbrage. I'm so provoked that some marshmallow on the internet said something senseless, because that never happens. So when it does, oh the ire it generates in me."

 

Hope that makes you feel better, dude. Makes me feel like a drama queen to play into this sad little fantasy here, but whatever, anything to get in the spirit. "Oh, oh!! So very very angry! I'm chafed. I'm stewing!! So vexed!! I'm nettled!!! I'm riled!! My anger is inflamed."

 

Seems a weird fantasy you've got there, but whatever floats your dinghy.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I also think the pure numbers are relevant here. 13 of those guys were selected as guards (Leatherwood, Howard, Fluker, Pugh and Flowers were all selected as tackles and busted). 

 

So 13 times an NFL team felt like there was a guard worthy of a first round selection. Let's leave out AVT because it is too early to make a judgment either way. We are down to 12. Seven of the remaining 12 have made pro-bowls. The exceptions are Cooper, Warmack, Garnett who are the three busts. Then Zeitler who has been a solid player but not a difference maker and Lindstrom who has improved each year and is very likely heading towards pro-bowl and even possible all pro honours. 

 

So let's say it is 8 of 12 who are at least pro-bowl level players (5 of 12 are all-pros). That tells its own story IMO. It tells you that NFL teams are only willing to select a guard in round 1 if they think he has pro-bowl level potential. And they are generally pretty good at getting that right. 

 

Now personally my threashold would be "all pro level potential" and while I have only been grading players since 2014 the only guys I on that list I had 1sts on were Martin, Scherff, Nelson and AVT. It is also worth saying I actually had Scherff graded as a tackle with guard flex (but I include him as a pure guard for these purposes because Washington put him there right away), and Martin and AVT as guards with tackle flex. I have had a 5th guard with a 1st round grade - Forest Lamp - but he was taken in the 2nd and flamed out with a comination of scheme changes and injuries. 

 

So maybe the NFL sets its bar slightly less high to take a guard than I would, but I think it sets it signifcantly higher than it does for most other spots. If they think a guy can just be a "good starting guard for a decade" they don't ordinarily take that guy in round one. They'd rather take a shot at a guy at a premium position. Let me give an example - AJ Cann. In that 2015 class he was talked about as a possible late first rounder coming out of South Carolina. I believe Kiper had a first round grade on him. But he fell in the end to the top of the 3rd where Jacksonville took him. He has been for the most part a solid starting guard. The Jags extended him and he played two contracts (7 seasons total) there as a starter. He got hurt last year and they didn't extend him again so he signed for Houston as a FA last month. He has had a better career than a lot of WRs and Corners and Edge players taken ahead of him and that was pretty predictable at draft time. But a guy who is just a solid starter for 7 years at guard is a third round pick. 

 

So that is the question teams have to ask themsleves on Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson this year. If their answer on pro-bowl potential is "yes" then they will be first rounders (my guess is at least one if not both are - 'cos it only takes one team to think that) but if teams ask are these regular pro-bowl level talents and the answer is "no" then they could slip into day 2 even if teams think they are better players than say, the 6th wide receiver or the 7th corner. And the reason for that is teams know that the opportunity cost of using that premium asset on a non-premium position is significant.

 

In conclusion, Thurm isn't wrong to question the "never take a guard in round 1" argument. However, the premise should be only take a guard in round one in exceptional circumstances and teams should, and seemingly do, really test themselves on what they are doing when they are about to pull that trigger. If they have any doubt, or it is close between guard and a premium position, they should always go elsewhere.

 

 

Thoughtful post, Bill.

 

I do question the word "exceptional." Again, 13 guys in ten years, and at least one in eight of those ten years says it's not exceptional at all. It's actually a pretty frequent thing. It happens with great consistency.

 

And that leaves out a few tackles moved to guard, with again a pretty good record when it happens. And one or two of them were drafted and immediately moved inside. Yet they're not being counted.

 

I totally agree that if there's a CB or a WR that they have at the same grade as they have for any potential first round guards, of course they'll go with the other positions. 

 

You're unquestionably right that there is an opportunity cost in picking somebody at a less premium position. Equally, though, there is also an opportunity cost picking someone at a premium position who isn't as good as the guard they could have taken. There's an opportunity cost either way.

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Thoughtful post, Bill.

 

I do question the word "exceptional." Again, 13 guys in ten years, and at least one in eight of those ten years says it's not exceptional at all. It's actually a pretty frequent thing. It happens with great consistency.

 

And that leaves out a few tackles moved to guard, with again a pretty good record when it happens. And one or two of them were drafted and immediately moved inside. Yet they're not being counted.

 

13 in 10 years represents 4% of first rounders in that period. And if you look at the 8 where it has worked out with a high level player then it is 2.5% of first rounders in that period. To me that is a small enough percentage to count as exceptional. 

 

Who are the first round tackles in that period who moved to guard and succeeded? 

[SoCal Deek]

I've never cared what position is taken where or when in the draft. All every front office should be looking for is to get two or three legitimate starters out of every year's class. It really doesn't make any difference to me what roster spots those rookies fill.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by SoCal Deek

[Matt_In_NH]

The Bills have a decent starting 5, no huge holes.  Depth of Tommy Doyle, Ford, Boettger (achiles) is not too great.   I expect them to draft a lineman in the 3-4 range.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

There are 3 good reasons to never select a guard or in round 1.

 

Money.

 

Organizational impact.

 

Successful habits.

 

1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions.     Not only can drafting a player at a big $ position save you money in the first contract but it gives you a chance to have negotiating leverage on that player prior to the first contract ending.    The savings can be substantial and the tens of millions we are talking about have real value.

 

2) As far as organizational impact........guards rarely have the opportunity to actually change games on the field.........that's usually done by QB's with significant assistance from edge/island players.   This is why the money flows the way it does in the NFL.   You want to be good at the LOS but you don't need to draft interior lineman early to be good at the point of attack.  And as an aside they don't move the needle off of the field by making your team more interesting/marketable/attractive.

 

3) And ultimately you either are a consistent, sound decision maker as a GM..........or you aren't.    I've been saying it for 15+ years here........the draft is an ongoing process of team building not just an annual event to patch up holes.   Is the juice at G ever worth the squeeze to break from common sense?  Not when you consider the opportunity cost.   Ask the Chiefs if they wish they had that CEH first rounder back.   The rationalization for selecting a guard is not much different than a RB.........we tend to think of RB's as disposable and G's as ten year assets.........but what they share in common is the likelihood that if they reach their lofty 1st round ceiling then your team won't feel compelled to retain that player at their open market figure.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions.

 

Question:

Who are the very good guards with no perceived liabilities who are (or were) available cheap in UFA this year?

 

Thanks

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question:

Who are the very good guards with no perceived liabilities who are (or were) available cheap in UFA this year?

 

Thanks

 

 

Like I said, sometimes every box is checked.  

 

This year the best of a good UFA group was just Brandon Scherff who is generally considered among the 3-5 best OG's in the league(1st team All Pro in 2020).........and is still in his prime.

 

Joe Thuney is also one of those top 3-5 OG's in the league and he was a fully unrestricted free agent who changed teams last offseason.  

 

Shaq Mason is more of a top 7-8 OG in the league and he just got traded for a 5th round pick while on a team friendly contract.

 

There is no shortage of examples of how easy it is to get one of the best OG's in the league without investing an early round pick.

 

You're welcome.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Like I said, sometimes every box is checked.  

 

This year the best of a good UFA group was just Brandon Scherff who is generally considered among the 3-5 best OG's in the league(1st team All Pro in 2020).........and is still in his prime.

 

Joe Thuney is also one of those top 3-5 OG's in the league and he was a fully unrestricted free agent who changed teams last offseason.  

 

Shaq Mason is more of a top 7-8 OG in the league and he just got traded for a 5th round pick while on a team friendly contract.

 

There is no shortage of examples of how easy it is to get one of the best OG's in the league without investing an early round pick.

 

You're welcome.

 

I have Shaq in the top half dozen guards too: Nelson, Martin, Scherff, Bitonio, Thuney and Mason. I have no idea how that deal made sense for New England. Hell of a trade for Tampa.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Like I said, sometimes every box is checked.  

 

This year the best of a good UFA group was just Brandon Scherff who is generally considered among the 3-5 best OG's in the league(1st team All Pro in 2020).........and is still in his prime.

 

Joe Thuney is also one of those top 3-5 OG's in the league and he was a fully unrestricted free agent who changed teams last offseason.  

 

Shaq Mason is more of a top 7-8 OG in the league and he just got traded for a 5th round pick while on a team friendly contract.

 

There is no shortage of examples of how easy it is to get one of the best OG's in the league without investing an early round pick.

 

You're welcome.

 

Perhaps I should have asked you to "define what you mean by available CHEAP (my emphasis) in FA"

 

Let's recap exactly what you said:

50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions.

 

Agreement that these guys are top guards.  But the question is, were they available "cheap in UFA"?

 

Brandon Scherff signed a 3 year, $49.5M contract with Jax.  That's $16.5M AAV.  Whilst he has a manageable cap hit of $7.8M this year, most would not call that contract "cheap".    That's the same AAV that JC Jackson signed for, and something like #49 AAV in the league.

 

Joe Thuney signed an 5 year, $80M contract with KC last off season.  That's $16M AAV Again, cap hit this year of $8.15, but most people would not call that contract "cheap".  It's right next door to Christian McCaffrey and Adam Theilen.

 

Even this year's lower cap hits for these guys would make them top-10 paid players on the Bills (7th and 8th, I believe)

 

Shaq Mason was NOT a free agent - as you note, he was traded.   His contract had cap hits of $9.8 and $10.9M last season.

 

Again, what exactly do you mean by "available cheap in UFA"? 

 

From the above, I don't think you've given me good examples of "UFA available cheap in UFA".   You picked two top guards who were available in FA, and got top guard money, and one guard who was not an UFA.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Perhaps I should have asked you to "define what you mean by available CHEAP (my emphasis) in FA"

 

Let's recap exactly what you said:

 

Agreement that these guys are top guards.  But the question is, were they available "cheap in UFA"?

 

Brandon Scherff signed a 3 year, $49.5M contract with Jax.  That's $16.5M AAV.  Whilst he has a manageable cap hit of $7.8M this year, most would not call that "cheap"

 

Joe Thuney signed an 5 year, $80M contract with KC last off season.  That's $16M AAV Again, cap hit this year of $8.15, but most people would not call that "cheap".

 

Even this year's lower cap hits for these guys would make them top-10 paid players on the Bills (7th and 8th, I believe)

 

Shaq Mason was NOT a free agent - as you note, he was traded.   His contract had cap hits of $9.8 and $10.9M last season.

 

Again, what exactly do you mean by "available cheap in UFA"? 

 

From the above, I don't think you've given me good examples of "UFA available cheap in UFA".  For comparison, Tre' White's contract puts him at $17.25 AAV.  When you're within $1M AAV of a top CB, "cheap" is a tough sell.

 

 

Top 5 players in their prime signing for $16M aav is cheap, Hapless.

 

To put it in perspective..........Von Miller is a top 20-25 pass rusher in the league now(including some interior rushers) and his advanced age suggests his trajectory is flat or downward........he's certainly not up there in the top 5 with the young guns like these guards in question.............and he got MORE $ than Scherff who is still in his prime.    As did Chandler Jones.

 

If Miller were top 5 and similarly unrestricted in his prime he'd be getting a $25M-$30M aav contract.   Maxx Crosby wasn't even free and got 4 year $94M this offseason.  

 

It's not complicated...........premium positions are worth a lot more.   So while you may not find $16M aav cheap for an All Pro........it actually is, relatively speaking.  

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have Shaq in the top half dozen guards too: Nelson, Martin, Scherff, Bitonio, Thuney and Mason. I have no idea how that deal made sense for New England. Hell of a trade for Tampa.

 

 

Yep,  3 of the top 6 guards changing teams in a 12 month span..........and no banks actually broken and one day 3 pick liquidated.

 

Imagine 3 of the top 6 All pass rushers getting their deals re-opened or traded and consider the $ and draft capital that would be changing hands.

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Thoughtful post, Bill.

 

I do question the word "exceptional." Again, 13 guys in ten years, and at least one in eight of those ten years says it's not exceptional at all. It's actually a pretty frequent thing. It happens with great consistency.

 

And that leaves out a few tackles moved to guard, with again a pretty good record when it happens. And one or two of them were drafted and immediately moved inside. Yet they're not being counted.

 

I totally agree that if there's a CB or a WR that they have at the same grade as they have for any potential first round guards, of course they'll go with the other positions. 

 

You're unquestionably right that there is an opportunity cost in picking somebody at a less premium position. Equally, though, there is also an opportunity cost picking someone at a premium position who isn't as good as the guard they could have taken. There's an opportunity cost either way.

 

Going through the draft and calling it 13 guards in 10 years is still a very rare occurrence.  Basically - almost every year there is 1 guard, 1 center, and 1 TE taken in the first round and not all of the guys considered guards were looked at as guards - many moved up with potential OT flexibility.

 

You compare that to other positions and you average around - 4 CBs, Almost 6 EDGE guys, 3.5 DTs, 2 ILB, 4.5 OTs, 4 WR, 3 QBs, 2 RB and 2 Safeties.

 

I think the numbers speak for themselves - yes 1 team will most likely draft a guard, but in terms of position priorities- IOL and TE are the least drafted position and are obviously seen as the least important to draft early.  This is closely followed by Safety, ILB, and RB - the other more devalued positions.  These players are more often drafted later and in lesser frequency - although there are exceptions.

 

On the other side - you have CBs, WRs, QBs, OTs, and especially EDGE guys that are taken in a 4:1 or more ratio to guards.

 

I think the NFL over the last 10+ years has shown you the value - yes you can draft a guard, but it should be rare and you should be getting the consensus best guard in the draft.  

 

 

[HappyDays]

11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

All every front office should be looking for is to get two or three legitimate starters out of every year's class.

 

I think we're past the point of just hoping we get legitimate starters in the draft. The Bills coaching staff and front office have enough chemistry and organizational planning to draft players with traits that will get them on the field. That hasn't been our problem in the Beane tenure. Our problem has been drafting real game changers that make individually exceptional plays that turn a game around. In the 1st round you should only be looking for that caliber of player. My belief is that no guard can possibly be that caliber of player no matter how good they are.

[Sierra Foothills]

 

On 3/31/2022 at 10:24 AM, SoTier said:

In 20 drafts between 2000 and 2019,  5 guards were taken in the top 10 and 1 was drafted to be an OT.  2 were Pro Bowl and All Pro caliber.  In 20 drafts between 2000 and 2019, 11 guards were taken between #21-#32.  5 were Pro Bowlers and 2 were All Pros.    The bottom of the first round frequently does yield stud guards. 

 

Guards taken in the first round since 2000:

• 2001 - 17 - Steve Hutchinson -  7 PBs, 5 All Pros
• 2002 - 20 - Kendall Simmons
• 2004 - 19 - Vernon Carey - started 107 games for Miami between 2004 and 2011
• 2005 - 32 - Logan Mankins - 7 PBs, 1 All Pro
• 2006 - 23 - Davin Joseph - 2 PBs
• 2007 - 29 - Ben Grubbs - 2 PBs
• 2008 - 15 - Branden Albert - converted to LT, made 2 PBs at LT
• 2010 - 17 - Mike Iupati - 4 PBs, 1 All Pro
• 2011 - 15 - Mike Pouncey - 4 PBs
• 2011 - 23 - Danny Watkins
• 2012 - 24 - Dave DeCastro - 6 PBs, 2 All Pros
• 2012 - 27 - Kevin Zeitler - started 151 games between 2012 and 2021
• 2013 -  7 - Jonathan Cooper
• 2013 - 10 - Chance Warmack
• 2013 - 20 - Kyle Long - 3 PBs
• 2015 -  5  - Brandon Scherff - 5 PBs, 1 All Pro
• 2015  - 9  - Ereck Flowers - converted to OT and then went back to G
• 2015 - 28 - Laken Tomlinson - 1 PB
• 2016 - 28 - Joshua Garnett
• 2016 - 31 - Germain Ifedi
• 2018 -  6 - Quenton Nelson - 4 PBs, 3 All Pros
• 2018 - 23 - Isaiah Wynn, starter in NE
• 2019 - 14 - Chris Lindstrom, starter in ATL

 

 

On 4/1/2022 at 2:14 PM, Bill from NYC said:

I believe that drafting a first round guard is not a good move in almost every case. But, if a GM  really does believe that there is a Larry Allen type HOF guard out there, drafting him in round 1 would be a wise move, especially on a team (like the 2008 Bills mind you) that has a critical shortage of good blockers.

 

Three thoughts on the topic.

 

1) In this day of advanced statistics/metrics there is a unit of measure referred to as WAR (wins above replacement). This is the idea that you can measure how many more (or less) wins a given team would have if an "average" player was replaced by another player. I think if it was possible to compute this concept accurately that it would show that someone like Joe Thuney would be worth maybe one more win than a player like Ryan Bates. JMO.

 

2) I agree with those who say that even the greatest guards have less value than many would think. For example I think of Logan Mankins as one of the greatest guards I ever saw play. He was a 6 time All Pro, 7 time Pro Bowler and a member of the All Decade team. He'll likely end up in the Hall of Fame.

 

And yet, despite the fact that he played for the Cheatriots*** for 10 years, he never won a Super Bowl. New England won Super Bowls in 2004, the year before he was drafted and in 2015, the year after he was released. They never won a Super Bowl with the greatest guard in team history, a future Hall of Famer.

 

3) It'd be one thing if you were guaranteed of drafting a Steve Hutchinson, Alan Faneca, Logan Mankins, Quentin Nelson, etc but there is no guarantee. You're just as likely to draft a Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper who btw were both considered "can't miss" players.

 

No on drafting a guard in the first round unless it's at the end of the first round and all of the top players are off the board.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

You're just as likely to draft a Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper who btw were both considered "can't miss" players.

 

In fairness, and as you will see from my other posts in the topic I broadly agree with your overall point, Cooper and Warmack have to be seen in the context of that awful 2013 draft. 

 

They were GMs trying to find "safe" prospects who wouldn't bust in a first round full of them. If you put either in the following year's class there is no chance they go top 15 IMO. Might still have gone at the end of day 1 but that would have been their ceiling. 

[BillsShredder83]

On 4/4/2022 at 3:38 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I also think the pure numbers are relevant here. 13 of those guys were selected as guards (Leatherwood, Howard, Fluker, Pugh and Flowers were all selected as tackles and busted). 

 

So 13 times an NFL team felt like there was a guard worthy of a first round selection. Let's leave out AVT because it is too early to make a judgment either way. We are down to 12. Seven of the remaining 12 have made pro-bowls. The exceptions are Cooper, Warmack, Garnett who are the three busts. Then Zeitler who has been a solid player but not a difference maker and Lindstrom who has improved each year and is very likely heading towards pro-bowl and even possible all pro honours. 

 

So let's say it is 8 of 12 who are at least pro-bowl level players (5 of 12 are all-pros). That tells its own story IMO. It tells you that NFL teams are only willing to select a guard in round 1 if they think he has pro-bowl level potential. And they are generally pretty good at getting that right. 

 

Now personally my threashold would be "all pro level potential" and while I have only been grading players since 2014 the only guys I on that list I had 1sts on were Martin, Scherff, Nelson and AVT. It is also worth saying I actually had Scherff graded as a tackle with guard flex (but I include him as a pure guard for these purposes because Washington put him there right away), and Martin and AVT as guards with tackle flex. I have had a 5th guard with a 1st round grade - Forest Lamp - but he was taken in the 2nd and flamed out with a comination of scheme changes and injuries. 

 

So maybe the NFL sets its bar slightly less high to take a guard than I would, but I think it sets it signifcantly higher than it does for most other spots. If they think a guy can just be a "good starting guard for a decade" they don't ordinarily take that guy in round one. They'd rather take a shot at a guy at a premium position. Let me give an example - AJ Cann. In that 2015 class he was talked about as a possible late first rounder coming out of South Carolina. I believe Kiper had a first round grade on him. But he fell in the end to the top of the 3rd where Jacksonville took him. He has been for the most part a solid starting guard. The Jags extended him and he played two contracts (7 seasons total) there as a starter. He got hurt last year and they didn't extend him again so he signed for Houston as a FA last month. He has had a better career than a lot of WRs and Corners and Edge players taken ahead of him and that was pretty predictable at draft time. But a guy who is just a solid starter for 7 years at guard is a third round pick. 

 

So that is the question teams have to ask themsleves on Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson this year. If their answer on pro-bowl potential is "yes" then they will be first rounders (my guess is at least one if not both are - 'cos it only takes one team to think that) but if teams ask are these regular pro-bowl level talents and the answer is "no" then they could slip into day 2 even if teams think they are better players than say, the 6th wide receiver or the 7th corner. And the reason for that is teams know that the opportunity cost of using that premium asset on a non-premium position is significant.

 

In conclusion, Thurm isn't wrong to question the "never take a guard in round 1" argument. However, the premise should be only take a guard in round one in exceptional circumstances and teams should, and seemingly do, really test themselves on what they are doing when they are about to pull that trigger. If they have any doubt, or it is close between guard and a premium position, they should always go elsewhere.

this is better than things i see in the national media, on a regular basis. really been enjoying your draft posts since i picked up on them. would you be willing to share your board, genuinely out of curiosity (if PM makes this easier cool)?

what main traits factor into your decisions on the draft board?

also curious what made you start grading out entire drafts? if youre a scout at some level that makes sense, but if youre just a reg dude thats a wild hobby to pick up. either way thanks for everything you bring to board lately

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

this is better than things i see in the national media, on a regular basis. really been enjoying your draft posts since i picked up on them. would you be willing to share your board, genuinely out of curiosity (if PM makes this easier cool)?

what main traits factor into your decisions on the draft board?

also curious what made you start grading out entire drafts? if youre a scout at some level that makes sense, but if youre just a reg dude thats a wild hobby to pick up. either way thanks for everything you bring to board lately

 

Thanks. That is very kind. I always do a post the weekend before the draft which brings all my draft content for that year together, lists all my first round grades, does an analysis of my top 100 and then my top 5s at every position group. Plus links to my posts on sleepers, my QB evaluations and my final mock etc. 

 

As for how I got into it... no I an entirely self taught. I started trying in 2014. I didn't understand how a lot of the 2013 draft could be so bad (answer it was a historically undertalented class) so I started trying to grade players. I had a few conversations at the time with other people who do it (including Bandit when he posted here) and asked what they look for etc. So in 2014 I think I watched film on about 70 players (last year was 129, my highest was 148). I look back at that first attempt and there were some highs and lows. I much preferred Jake Matthews to Greg Robinson at tackle. I thought Mike Evans and not Sammy Watkins was the best receiver in the draft. And I had Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier and Zack Martin in my top 10. On the flip side I did have Bortles as QB1, had a top 15 grade on Kelvin Benjamin and didn't like Khalil Mack. 

 

I'd like to think I have got better at it over the years. I started really by saying "this guy I am looking at on tape - is there someone in the league right now having success that plays like this?" and then I really looked at all positions for balance because one guy I spoke to who has worked in the NFL told me at every position you need players who play "in balance" even now that was a great tip I hold by. 

 

But as I have gone along I have developed more of my own kind of traits profiles for each positions. Guys who have been around for a while on here know what they are... I like Quarterbacks who can throw the seam route. I like receivers who are good route runners. I like offensive tackles with good, quick, feet. I like edge rushers with heavy hands. I like corners with instincts. One of the things I have changed as I have gone and I think it reflects where the league has gone in the past decade or so.... I have started to be more of a ceiling scouter. Previously I considered myself a floor scouter. But missing on Josh Allen and a couple of other high ceiling guys you have to go back and look at where the league is moving and it is those freaks who teams are generally better at accomodating and developing now than maybe 10 years ago when if you had a wide receiver who was 6'5 and ran a 4.35 but wae a long strider you'd still see teams trying to shoehorn him into a west coast intermediate route offense running comebacks and crossers. 

 

I also try to factor positional value into my grading scheme. So if I think you are a 10 year plug and play starter as a #1 corner that might be a 1st round grade. If I think the same applies but you are a guard that is a 2nd round grade. To be a first round grade as a guard you have to be in my "potential elite NFL player" bracket. 

 

I also try really hard not to look too much at what the draft media is doing in February and March. I will generally look in a few places at the start of Jan when I really begin my process in earnest to compile a list of guys I need to watch. But then you can get reallt caught up in "this guy is rising and this guy is falling" and just in other people's opinions. I am lucky enough to have a couple of pretty good folks who I have enough of a relationship with to reach out to and ask them a question if I am seeing something I am not sure about with a guy but I try really hard to make sure any position I am taking is my own position and not a parroting of someone else's. If I am higher on a player, so be it. If I am lower on a player, fine. 

 

It is a wild hobby I suppose. I am a bit like that though. I always want to ask why. I am the guy who can come out of the movie theatre after a 3 hour action blockbuster and obssess about the continuity error I spotted halfway through. I think the draft play to my natural pedantry and inquistive nature. Sorry if that's a long answer!

Edited April 5, 2022 by GunnerBill

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks. That is very kind. I always do a post the weekend before the draft which brings all my draft content for that year together, lists all my first round grades, does an analysis of my top 100 and then my top 5s at every position group. Plus links to my posts on sleepers, my QB evaluations and my final mock etc. 

 

As for how I got into it... no I an entirely self taught. I started trying in 2014. I didn't understand how a lot of the 2013 draft could be so bad (answer it was a historically undertalented class) so I started trying to grade players. I had a few conversations at the time with other people who do it (including Bandit when he posted here) and asked what they look for etc. So in 2014 I think I watched film on about 70 players (last year was 129, my highest was 148). I look back at that first attempt and there were some highs and lows. I much preferred Jake Matthews to Greg Robinson at tackle. I thought Mike Evans and not Sammy Watkins was the best receiver in the draft. And I had Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier and Zack Martin in my top 10. On the flip side I did have Bortles as QB1, had a top 15 grade on Kelvin Benjamin and didn't like Khalil Mack. 

 

I'd like to think I have got better at it over the years. I started really by saying "this guy I am looking at on tape - is there someone in the league right now having success that plays like this?" and then I really looked at all positions for balance because one guy I spoke to who has worked in the NFL told me at every position you need players who play "in balance" even now that was a great tip I hold by. 

 

But as I have gone along I have developed more of my own kind of traits profiles for each positions. Guys who have been around for a while on here know what they are... I like Quarterbacks who can throw the seam route. I like receivers who are good route runners. I like offensive tackles with good, quick, feet. I like edge rushers with heavy hands. I like corners with instincts. One of the things I have changed as I have gone and I think it reflects where the league has gone in the past decade or so.... I have started to be more of a ceiling scouter. Previously I considered myself a floor scouter. But missing on Josh Allen and a couple of other high ceiling guys you have to go back and look at where the league is moving and it is those freaks who teams are generally better at accomodating and developing now than maybe 10 years ago when if you had a wide receiver who was 6'5 and ran a 4.35 but wae a long strider you'd still see teams trying to shoehorn him into a west coast intermediate route offense running comebacks and crossers. 

 

I also try to factor positional value into my grading scheme. So if I think you are a 10 year plug and play starter as a #1 corner that might be a 1st round grade. If I think the same applies but you are a guard that is a 2nd round grade. To be a first round grade as a guard you have to be in my "potential elite NFL player" bracket. 

 

I also try really hard not to look too much at what the draft media is doing in February and March. I will generally look in a few places at the start of Jan when I really begin my process in earnest to compile a list of guys I need to watch. But then you can get reallt caught up in "this guy is rising and this guy is falling" and just in other people's opinions. I am lucky enough to have a couple of pretty good folks who I have enough of a relationship with to reach out to and ask them a question if I am seeing something I am not sure about with a guy but I try really hard to make sure any position I am taking is my own position and not a parroting of someone else's. If I am higher on a player, so be it. If I am lower on a player, fine. 

 

It is a wild hobby I suppose. I am a bit like that though. I always want to ask why. I am the guy who can come out of the movie theatre after a 3 hour action blockbuster and obssess about the continuity error I spotted halfway through. I think the draft play to my natural pedantry and inquistive nature. Sorry if that's a long answer!

Tip of the cap to you that's really freaking cool. Seriously! Sounds like a lot of fun to monitor the rookies, and your drafts over time.

 

Who's your favorite non-Bill, active, that you think you scouted well. Draft gem maybe?

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Tip of the cap to you that's really freaking cool. Seriously! Sounds like a lot of fun to monitor the rookies, and your drafts over time.

 

Who's your favorite non-Bill, active, that you think you scouted well. Draft gem maybe?

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

[papazoid]

you dont pass on a pro bowler at any position to take a solid starter at another

 

it's best available...if thats a guard...so be it

[newcam2012]

On 4/3/2022 at 11:11 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Don't be sorry.

 

You seem desperate to believe I'm angry or that you bothered me. You flatter yourself.

 

Again, when I see stupid ideas posted, sometimes I point out how stupid they are. It's no bother at all.

I can attest to this. I've been corrected a few times by you. Of course, it's never taken personally. 

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

I had a very high grade on Dak as well. The reason he dropped was because he got a DUI shortly before the draft. I remember countless people defending him, saying that he was really not prone to this sort of behavior.  I REALLY wanted the Bills to grab him early.

Instead, we waited and grabbed the great Cardale Jones. 

[MrEpsYtown]

19 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I had a very high grade on Dak as well. The reason he dropped was because he got a DUI shortly before the draft. I remember countless people defending him, saying that he was really not prone to this sort of behavior.  I REALLY wanted the Bills to grab him early.

Instead, we waited and grabbed the great Cardale Jones. 

I really thought the Bills were going to take Dak that year. 

 

Apparently David Lee wanted him and Whaley did not: 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/07/22/buffalo-bills-david-lee-claims-wanted-draft-russell-wilson-dak-prescott/

Edited April 5, 2022 by MrEpsYtown

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So some of the favourites are always guys you were a lot higher than the consensus on that pan out. I thought Roby Anderson was at worst a 4th rounder. He went undrafted. In 6 seasons he has over 4,600 yards and 28 TDs despite atrocious QB play in two spots. Shaq Mason was another. I had a day 2 grade on him, New England took him in the 5th round and he became a top half dozen guard in the league. David Edwards I had a day 2 grade on think the Rams took him in the 4th or 5th he was an every game starter at guard on the newly crowned Superbowl Champs. Nick Allegretti was a 7th rounder I really liked he was a starter at guard on the Chiefs Superbowl team. I actually really liked Gabe Davis as a day 2 guy as well, was delighted the Bills managed to snag him in the 4th. Matt Milano I liked a lot too (although had him right about where the Bills took him). I know you asked for non-Bills but throwing them in. Dak Prescott at Quarterback. I had a 2nd round grade on him and felt he was undervalued all the way through the process by people saying his ceiling was a backup. 

 

There are loads of evaluations I wish I could have back too. Didn't like Josh Allen, did like Shaq Lawson, was not sold on Justin Jefferson as a true first rounder... you kind have to enjoy the wrong ones as much as the right ones. It's a bit like Parcells used to tell Phil Simms - if you ain't throwing picks, you ain't trying hard enough. If you are not having some bad misses as a draft evaluator you are probably a play it safe be on the fence about every prospect type. And where is the fun in that??

 

This is some of my favorite posts I've read on this board in 10years. Very much appreciate you taking the time to share. I'm thinking about doing a mini evaluation for this year as a practice run, and see if I can build on it next year.

 

I know this is vague and maybe hard to answer. Somewhat I need to sink or swim on the fly, to learn.... but any advice for someone wanting to start? Can be as simple or difficult of an answer as you'd like 😁

[SoTier]

On 4/4/2022 at 11:08 AM, SoCal Deek said:

I've never cared what position is taken where or when in the draft. All every front office should be looking for is to get two or three legitimate starters out of every year's class. It really doesn't make any difference to me what roster spots those rookies fill.

 

 

On the current Bills roster, "legitimate starters" have to be pretty good, especially on offense.  This regime isn't going to draft a guard -- or WR or CB -- in the first round to be a JAG.  They're looking for players, whatever their position, who are better than what they've got on the roster now and have the potential to be among the top players in the league at their position.   Maybe there's nobody that's that caliber available when they pick, so they have to make the best of it.   What I sure don't want to do is to pass on a super talented guard to take a lesser talented player at a supposed "more important" position.

 

On 4/4/2022 at 11:16 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

There are 3 good reasons to never select a guard or in round 1.

 

Money.

 

Organizational impact.

 

Successful habits.

 

1) You can always buy a very good guard or two cheap in UFA.........sometimes all pro's with no perceived liabilities and in their mid 20's even............this is RARELY the case with players at premium positions.     Not only can drafting a player at a big $ position save you money in the first contract but it gives you a chance to have negotiating leverage on that player prior to the first contract ending.    The savings can be substantial and the tens of millions we are talking about have real value.

 

2) As far as organizational impact........guards rarely have the opportunity to actually change games on the field.........that's usually done by QB's with significant assistance from edge/island players.   This is why the money flows the way it does in the NFL.   You want to be good at the LOS but you don't need to draft interior lineman early to be good at the point of attack.  And as an aside they don't move the needle off of the field by making your team more interesting/marketable/attractive.

 

3) And ultimately you either are a consistent, sound decision maker as a GM..........or you aren't.    I've been saying it for 15+ years here........the draft is an ongoing process of team building not just an annual event to patch up holes.   Is the juice at G ever worth the squeeze to break from common sense?  Not when you consider the opportunity cost.   Ask the Chiefs if they wish they had that CEH first rounder back.   The rationalization for selecting a guard is not much different than a RB.........we tend to think of RB's as disposable and G's as ten year assets.........but what they share in common is the likelihood that if they reach their lofty 1st round ceiling then your team won't feel compelled to retain that player at their open market figure.   

 

Yeah ... guards seldom  actually change games until some gem like Ross Tucker or Bennie Anderson whiffs on a block and your QB leaves on a cart, maybe for the season.

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Yeah ... guards seldom  actually change games until some gem like Ross Tucker or Bennie Anderson whiffs on a block and your QB leaves on a cart, maybe for the season.

 

 

Yeah it's important to have at least adequate players at every OL position..........if one is awful it can blow up everything..........that's primarily why the Bills allowed 125 combined pressures and sacks last year......TERRIBLE left guard play for most of the year.  

 

All the while an adequate 4 year vet was riding the pine just waiting to have his number called.

 

That doesn't happen at QB or Pass Rusher or LT or WR. 

 

The most egregious example in Bills history of horrible guard play costing a Bills team games might have been when they let Andy Levitre walk and replaced him with Colin Brown...........who proceeded to make Benny Anderson and Ross Tucker look like John Hannah and Eugene Upshaw by comparison.

 

Colin Brown literally kept that team out of the playoffs that year..........teams game-planned to cut him from the herd.   

 

But it isn't hard to find adequate talents at guard.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This is some of my favorite posts I've read on this board in 10years. Very much appreciate you taking the time to share. I'm thinking about doing a mini evaluation for this year as a practice run, and see if I can build on it next year.

 

I know this is vague and maybe hard to answer. Somewhat I need to sink or swim on the fly, to learn.... but any advice for someone wanting to start? Can be as simple or difficult of an answer as you'd like 😁

 

So I'd say a few things - 1. the tip that was given to me... look for guys who play with good balance at all positions. If they don't there is a technical flaw somewhere. 

 

2. Watch position groups together. Don't grab someone's draft board and go down it guy by guy. If you are gonna spend two hours watching film then just watch one position for two hours... helps you really get the ranking within the position group more accurate. 

 

3. Try not to watch "as a Bills fan". It can lead you to talking yourself into guys at positions of need and that are perfect Bills fits rather than just thinking "how well does this guy's game translate to the NFL?". 

[Airseven]

Bates staying as the primary backup at all 3 IOL positions would be ideal. But the fact they matched says he's penciled in as a starter (Mancz primary depth). They do need a young IOL but not R1. Need/value is best served in R3-4.

[Bill from NYC]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The most egregious example in Bills history of horrible guard play costing a Bills team games might have been when they let Andy Levitre walk and replaced him with Colin Brown...........who proceeded to make Benny Anderson and Ross Tucker look like John Hannah and Eugene Upshaw by comparison.

 

😁  Was Colin Brown as bad as Marcus Spriggs? I thought Spriggs was the worst guard ever. I don't think that he ever completed a successful block lol!

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

😁  Was Colin Brown as bad as Marcus Spriggs? I thought Spriggs was the worst guard ever. I don't think that he ever completed a successful block lol!

Colin Brown started the first 5 weeks and then was not just benched but released. He was terrible.

Edited April 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

.

 

Colin Brown literally kept that team out of the playoffs that year..........teams game-planned to cut him from the herd.  

 

He played the first 5 games, in which we went 2-3 with wins in the EJ game v the Panthers and the Kiko game v the Ravens  

 

We ended the season 6-10. So we were 4-7 without him. Hard to say he was the single reason. I don't think 2013 with a rookie EJ was ever going to be a playoff year. The LG play didn't get a lot better with Doug Legursky taking over in week 6. But it did improve a bit on Brown who was cut and never even signed to an NFL practice squad ever again. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He played the first 5 games, in which we went 2-3 with wins in the EJ game v the Panthers and the Kiko game v the Ravens  

 

We ended the season 6-10. So we were 4-7 without him. Hard to say he was the single reason. I don't think 2013 with a rookie EJ was ever going to be a playoff year. The LG play didn't get a lot better with Doug Legursky taking over in week 6. But it did improve a bit on Brown who was cut and never even signed to an NFL practice squad ever again. 

 

Well in retrospect most fans tend to view things very differently after they see a QB go bust...........but that new Marrone team came out of the gate firing........new systems were catching teams off guard.........they should have been 4-0..........but for one Colin Brown, IMO.

 

Getting out to a fast start changes everything for an upstart team.......see 2017.        Having Colin Brown starting was like what would have happened to the 2017 Bills had they dumped Marcell Dareus in camp.    The 2017 Bills were never the same team after that fast start that Dareus outstanding run defense helped them be..........they went from thinking home field in October to playing just one good game(in KC) the rest of the season and barely avoiding elimination at the hands of David Fales in Miami.   

 

Sometimes being utterly dreadful at one position........even one not associated with changing games.........can indeed undermine the whole show.    An average LG in tow.........2013 Bills go at least 9-7, IMO.    No Marcell Dareus........2017 Bills stumble out of the gate and finish far outside of playoff contention.    

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Well in retrospect most fans tend to view things very differently after they see a QB go bust...........but that new Marrone team came out of the gate firing........new systems were catching teams off guard.........they should have been 4-0..........but for one Colin Brown, IMO.

 

Getting out to a fast start changes everything for an upstart team.......see 2017.        Having Colin Brown starting was like what would have happened to the 2017 Bills had they dumped Marcell Dareus in camp.    The 2017 Bills were never the same team after that fast start that Dareus outstanding run defense helped them be..........they went from thinking home field in October to playing just one good game(in KC) the rest of the season and barely avoiding elimination at the hands of David Fales in Miami.   

 

Sometimes being utterly dreadful at one position........even one not associated with changing games.........can indeed undermine the whole show.    An average LG in tow.........2013 Bills go at least 9-7, IMO.    No Marcell Dareus........2017 Bills stumble out of the gate and finish far outside of playoff contention.    

 

I disagree. I don't think that 2013 team was a playoff team. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree. I don't think that 2013 team was a playoff team. 

 

You don't have to think it, they weren't.

 

But do you think the 2017 team that got trampled twice by NE and had the worst point differential of any playoff team since the 1980's "was a playoff team".

 

Well, they were.   Somehow.

 

The 2013 team had a better PD and played NE a whole lot tougher..........I'd actually say both of Marrone's teams were better than that 2017 unit.