Joe Buscaglia's 7 round Bills Mock draft (paywall)

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree- I think Hall is OK, but not in round 1 with huge need at corner.  If they aren’t going corners, I could see OL or WR - anything else would be a head scratcher

 

i think It would be too early for a tiny WR at 57.

 

 

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

[gobills404]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

But they ran fast so that means they’re good

[John from Riverside]

It just really depends on what (if any) top corners are on the board at 25

 

I dont want to overdraft a lesser corner at 25 just because we need one......but one is there you gotta take him.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hall is not a first rounder.

Austin is not a second rounder (I don't even think he is a day 2 player). 

Agree - Hill is a major outlier.  Just because he is great, doesn’t mean that any 5’8” 170 lb fast guy will be equivalent.  Hill was not a high draft choice either.

 

just because Aaron Donald is outstanding, it doesn’t mean that it is wise to draft 285 lb DTs.  Ed Oliver is a heck of an athlete for his size, but nowhere near Donald in the NFL.

[Shake_My_Head]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

It just really depends on what (if any) top corners are on the board at 25

 

I dont want to overdraft a lesser corner at 25 just because we need one......but one is there you gotta take him.

I'd go the other way, trading up 4-5 slots to get the right CB, if they're convinced he's a long-term star.    CB is a premier position, worthy of expending some draft capital.   Having that CB2 spot solidified for years to come at a first contract price would be a big advantage.

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Buscaglia's 7 round Bills mock draft from today. While I am not generally "Team Round 1 Running Back!", his reasoning for taking Hall does make some sense to me.


https://theathletic.com/3205471/2022/03/24/bills-7-round-post-free-agency-mock-draft-a-running-back-before-a-wide-receiver-or-cornerback/

 

Round 1, No. 25: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

When most think about adding firepower to the Bills offense, the first impulse is to go with a receiver. That does make sense, though there may not be a better short-term and long-term fit for an offensive playmaker than Breece Hall. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have two years remaining on their contracts, which makes it less of a need. But running back Devin Singletary is in the final year of his rookie deal.

Singletary stepped up late last season, but he doesn’t have the complete, dynamic skill set the Bills may covet. And they’ll have to pay Singletary pretty well to stick around in 2023. With dwindling cap space for next season and key players coming up on free agency, Tremaine Edmunds, Dawson Knox and Jordan Poyer, Singletary might not fit into their plans. The Bills also tried to sign J.D. McKissic this offseason, which shows they’re not settled at the position.

With Hall, the Bills would be getting a potential three-down threat who would pair with Singletary in the first year and then take over the backfield in 2023. If he hits, Hall would give them the total running back package, which is a lot harder to find in this draft than a quality receiver.

“Hall is an easy running back to like because he doesn’t really have a fatal flaw. He runs with patience, power and agility. He grades very well in the position-specific areas,” The Athletic draft expert Dane Brugler wrote in December. “Coaches will love his ball skill as a pass catcher, showing the body control and hands to adjust to off-target throws. His consistent production and toughness make him one of the more reliable backs in this class.”

The ability to make something out of nothing as a pass catcher is a trait worth chasing. And if the Bills are shifting to more of a zone running scheme, his skills would work perfectly within that. The only question left on Hall was his burst and being able to punish a defense with a home run, and he tested out with elite levels of explosiveness on his 10-yard split, broad jump and vertical at the combine, and he showed a sustained speed with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash. Hall only turns 21 at the end of May, which means the high-level production window is open that much longer because he has fewer miles on the tires. And his best comparable NFL player based on advanced metrics and workout scores? Jonathan Taylor, according to Player Profiler.

I’ve generally been against the notion of drafting a running back in the first round. But, after seeing how 2021 unfolded, I believe the value of a young running back on a rookie deal is increasing. Finding a versatile, three-down back who can be more than just a dump-off option in the passing game and break a run wide open gives a team an immense advantage. With all the great quarterback and receiver play across the league, defenses shifted to an increasing amount of two-high-safety looks. The premise is simple: to prevent a premier passing attack from looking for a deep-field shot. And the strategy worked — a lot.

The Bills weren’t at their best offensively down the stretch until they started mixing in more two-tight-end looks and presented a threat to run, which explained the emphasis of adding tight end O.J. Howard in the offseason. It also slightly devalues the slot receiver, making an early receiver pick less of a slam dunk given the Bills’ current roster construction. Having the right running back who can do it all is the perfect counter to opposing defenses hoping to take away the pass.

The one thing that remains unchanged is that, in most cases, paying a running back with a big second contract is usually not the way to go. The prime of a running back’s career is much earlier than most positions, and the threat of injuries and production dips during that second contract is very real because of how many hits a back takes. So before you know it, that once great running back could become an albatross of a contract and hold a team’s cap space back. By investing in a running back late in the first round, they get a fixed-cost deal and the lowest-costing fifth-year option in the NFL. The running back fifth-year option for the 2019 draft class was the lowest of any position by more than $1 million, and at other positions, the fifth-year option comes close to tripling the running back option. Running back was also the only position not to go over $10 million on a fifth-year option for players who made multiple Pro Bowls. And after that fifth year is when teams start wondering how many more years of top-end production the running back could have, giving a team a natural place to move on without incurring long-term cap problems.

The league has been devaluing running backs for a long time, and the salaries reflect that to drive that fifth-year option down, so it would be wise to exploit that. The Bills would be quite savvy to get ahead of the curve of where the NFL is shifting. And for those wondering, no, Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams was not available.

 

Round 2, No. 57: Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis

All of you “wide receiver or bust” fans can rest easy with this selection, which I think is a perfect fit for what the Bills could be looking for to help their offense. Austin is a home run threat with incredible speed, which is something the Bills do not have, and he can develop into a long-term slot receiver in the offense. With Isaiah McKenzie guaranteed only one year on his deal and Jamison Crowder on a one-year contract, it makes sense to draft a long-term slot prospect and develop that player in 2022. Austin would also provide the Bills the pre-snap motion elements they’ve employed for years with McKenzie. Austin could factor into the return game as well. With the top-two pairing of Hall and Austin, the Bills offense is looking a lot scarier to opponents.


 

Round 3, No. 89: Josh Williams, CB, Fayetteville State

Round 4, No. 130: Terrel Bernard, LB, Baylor

 

Round 5, No. 168: Cam Jurgens, IOL, Nebraska

 

Round 6, No. 185: Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tennessee

 

Round 6, No. 203: Jordan Stout, P, Penn State

 

Round 7, No. 231: Jeremiah Moon, DE, Florida

 

 

Not bad…but I would like them to trade a few picks either this year for next and move into the 3rd and draft a second CB

[JaCrispy]

I can get down with this...👍

[PauleeeWalnuts]

They need two CB desperately….I would be shocked if they waited until mid rounds to address that 

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

 

I'll tell you what I don’t like is watching Tremaine Edmunds take on RBs. How does everyone feel about him?

[Rockinon]

6 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I didn't read the article, but my thought as to why the Penn State punter was listed and not Araiza in the 6th round is that Araiza will be gone by then.  Also, it has been said that Araiza has never been a holder for kicks.  The Bills have traditionally used their punter in this role.  That said, a thought occurred to me - if they keep both Barkley and Keenum on the roster - a distinct possibility - why can't Barkley hold for kicks?  If Allen is healthy, I suspect that Keenum is going to get most of the 2nd team reps and there won't be many reps available for Barkley anyway.  Barkely will be more of an emergency 3rd QB/glorified assistant QB coach.  If he spends some time with special teams, how deterimental will that really be?  Plus, it gives the team a lot more options as to fake FG pass plays.

 

On the flip side (a hole in my own argument) is that you'd need to have 3 QBs active on game day, and that's not a likely scneario.

Barkley would be a 3rd string QB. You can't have 3 active QBs on game day.

[teef]

13 seconds.  

[Governor]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

NICE!! One more thread in which we can debate the importance of RBs with regards to winning a super bowl. 

You could make the case that Fournette was the reason Tampa won.

 

I only like the idea if the value is right when we pick.

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, Governor said:

You could make the case that Fournette was the reason Tampa won.

 

I only like the idea if the value is right when we pick.

You could. And no one would believe you.  

[atlbillsfan1975]

44 minutes ago, teef said:

13 seconds.  

Never happens if Von is the DE over Hughes 

[The Frankish Reich]

Chances that any of the listed players are actually drafted by the Bills, in any round: < 50%

You might as well predict the exact score of the first Bills-Patriots meeting next year.

I enjoy reading about how certain players would be a good fit, but 7 rounds of a mock draft? Really? We are officially in what the Brits call the silly season.

Edited March 25, 2022 by The Frankish Reich

[Chicken Boo]

A rookie corner is not going to put this team over the top.  

 

A game-breaking RB, on the other hand, adds a different element to the offense and makes the Bills very difficult to defend.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agree - Hill is a major outlier.  Just because he is great, doesn’t mean that any 5’8” 170 lb fast guy will be equivalent.  Hill was not a high draft choice either.

 

just because Aaron Donald is outstanding, it doesn’t mean that it is wise to draft 285 lb DTs.  Ed Oliver is a heck of an athlete for his size, but nowhere near Donald in the NFL.

There's been a lot of Tyreek Hill types, both before and after Tyreek Hill. Tavon Austin, KJ Hamler (I still like him if healthy), etc. etc. Tyreek 2.0 hunting is probably not a sound draft strategy, unless you're talking about taking a flyer on a 5th rounder ... which is exactly what Tyreek was.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, teef said:

13 seconds.  

 

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Never happens if Von is the DE over Hughes 

 

The Bills might have had home field advantage last year if they had Von Miller over Jerry Hughes over the course of the whole season.

 

However I don't think Von Miller makes any difference when it comes to 13 seconds in and of itself.

 

Mahomes was getting rid of the ball quickly which is why it made no sense to rush 4. No pass rush was gonna get near him.

[Big Blitz]

I keep watching 3 - 4 corners go in every mock draft and I'm hate picking Zion every time.  

[LEBills]

I will actually be surprised if we don’t wind up with Josh Williams at CB, he seems like such a McDermott special. Small school guy with tools to coach up like Josh Norman, Bradbury, Taron and Neal.