Rochesterfan Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Chaos said: The main reason RB is a low cost position is because young players can make an immediate impact. But you have to good young players to follow that strategy. Its not crazy to spend even a first on the RB, if that person can be a top 5 to 10 RB immediately. It doesn’t matter - you should almost never draft a RB in the first round. The cost of a 5th year option and a second contract make it not worth it. You overpay even if he is good - the cost versus return on 1st round backs is terrible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: It doesn’t matter - you should almost never draft a RB in the first round. The cost of a 5th year option and a second contract make it not worth it. You overpay even if he is good - the cost versus return on 1st round backs is terrible. You could say that about every position except QB and pass rusher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: It doesn’t matter - you should almost never draft a RB in the first round. The cost of a 5th year option and a second contract make it not worth it. You overpay even if he is good - the cost versus return on 1st round backs is terrible. I agree second round on his fair game though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: You could say that about every position except QB and pass rusher Nope - if you look at second contracts for starting level players there are a few positions that first round picks do not work out for. Many starting level guards make 3-4 million - a 5th year option on a guard is 10+ million. Unless he is an All Pro you are overpaying. RB falls into the same category - you can get mid to high end starters for 4-5 million, but the 5th year option pushes 8+ million again elite level RB. Very rarely - especially late are you picking up the option. QB, CB, WR, DE, OLB, OT - the mid range starter and 5th year option are close enough that you can pick it up and have a year to negotiate if needed. The pay rate is not so far out of line that you put yourself in a pickle. It is easy if they are an All Pro or they bust out, but the majority of players are starter level, but not elite and in those cases that extra year can be helpful, but you can’t use it for every position. The price point should be a huge consideration in what you are drafting. It is part of the reason Linderbaum is dropping - with his size and position. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Jeremy White had a nice discussion about Breece Hall and Next Gen Stats on his show this morning. Breece is #1 rated. The past 2 years, names on that list included Jamarr Chase, Joe Burrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Jeremy White had a nice discussion about Breece Hall and Next Gen Stats on his show this morning. Breece is #1 rated. The past 2 years, names on that list included Jamarr Chase, Joe Burrow Just further confirmation that my excitement is warranted. He has elite talent. I honestly hope we find a way to make him a Bill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Jeremy White had a nice discussion about Breece Hall and Next Gen Stats on his show this morning. Breece is #1 rated. The past 2 years, names on that list included Jamarr Chase, Joe Burrow What as the #1 RB? Hasn't that been out there for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Warcodered said: What as the #1 RB? Hasn't that been out there for a while? #1 overall talent in draft. Hutchinson, Evan Neal, Sauce Gardner all rank behind him 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 If the top corners are gone I’d be very happy with Breece Hall at #25. The offense would be scary with him and Devin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, wppete said: If the top corners are gone I’d be very happy with Breece Hall at #25. The offense would be scary with him and Devin. Give me the top RB in the draft over the fifth or sixth CB any day of the week. Hall would take us to another level. We can get a corner later. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said: Just further confirmation that my excitement is warranted. He has elite talent. I honestly hope we find a way to make him a Bill. Package picks including 2023 1st to move up for Jameson Williams. Then move up from 57 into the late 30's early 40's for Hall. in this scenario you only make maybe 4 selections in the draft....but 2 of them would be elite Edited April 19, 2022 by Warriorspikes51 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 On 4/16/2022 at 7:17 PM, Rochesterfan said: It doesn’t matter - you should almost never draft a RB in the first round. The cost of a 5th year option and a second contract make it not worth it. You overpay even if he is good - the cost versus return on 1st round backs is terrible. We're not drafting in the top 10 anymore. People need to realize that when your team is drafting near the end of the 1st round you will not get to draft again until the late 2nd round and if the sweet spot for RBs is early 2nd round if you want one you either use a 1st rounder or lose the player. You can't count on a trade up or trade down. It's not the same mentality as drafting in the top 10. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said: We're not drafting in the top 10 anymore. People need to realize that when your team is drafting near the end of the 1st round you will not get to draft again until the late 2nd round and if the sweet spot for RBs is early 2nd round if you want one you either use a 1st rounder or lose the player. You can't count on a trade up or trade down. It's not the same mentality as drafting in the top 10. It’s not…..but the 5th year option remains the same. The value of the running back position with regards to building a team remains the same. i get your point but while the one variable (draft slot) changes, the other variables remain the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 Sean McDermott asked if he could add any former Bill to current team said Thurman Thomas. Could be a "tell" that they are focused on landing an elite RB. It makes sense. Really puts a lot of stress on defenses when your team has a strong counter punch to anything they do.... Personally I want 2 of the first 3 picks to be Offensive playmakers. Give Allen as much Ammo as possible. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NewEra said: It’s not…..but the 5th year option remains the same. The value of the running back position with regards to building a team remains the same. i get your point but while the one variable (draft slot) changes, the other variables remain the same If a player like Thurman Thomas has a 5th year option, no team would hesitate to either pick it up or sign him to a long term extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 The only way I see the Bills going w Hall is if all the CBs have been taken and all the 1st round WRs are gone and all the LBs are gone, which COULD happen because I don’t know if a single QB will go in the first this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 A few things factor with Breece is that we only have 1 back under contract after this season and that’s Mr Moss who may be released. The other is a true 3 down back to compliment motor and can break the long one is something bills haven’t had since the days of Willis Mcgahee. And finally everyone’s favorite tool Pete Schraeger is now mocking Breece to the Bills and he’s actually been pretty good in the past with his mocks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCofNC Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Sean McDermott asked if he could add any former Bill to current team said Thurman Thomas. Could be a "tell" that they are focused on landing an elite RB. It makes sense. Really puts a lot of stress on defenses when your team has a strong counter punch to anything they do.... Personally I want 2 of the first 3 picks to be Offensive playmakers. Give Allen as much Ammo as possible. I mean, if the Legends, only Thurman is at a position where you don’t have a current star, so that’s the right answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said: We're not drafting in the top 10 anymore. People need to realize that when your team is drafting near the end of the 1st round you will not get to draft again until the late 2nd round and if the sweet spot for RBs is early 2nd round if you want one you either use a 1st rounder or lose the player. You can't count on a trade up or trade down. It's not the same mentality as drafting in the top 10. This is a great point. You are correct. The sweet spot for the top RBs has been early 2nd. Our 1st rounder is a late 1st anyways, so if you want Hall you will need to take him at 25, trade back to the top of 2, or trade up into the early 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said: If a player like Thurman Thomas has a 5th year option, no team would hesitate to either pick it up or sign him to a long term extension. ……if a player like Kijana Carter, Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas, Tommy Vardell, Rashan salaam, Sammie smith, Terry Miller, Dj Dozier, Lawrence Phillips has a 5th year option, every team would hesitate to pick it up or sign them long term. two sides to every coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, DCofNC said: The only way I see the Bills going w Hall is if all the CBs have been taken and all the 1st round WRs are gone and all the LBs are gone, which COULD happen because I don’t know if a single QB will go in the first this year. I think you are completely underselling last year that the bills were reportedly very high on Ettienne, this year when they made a play for McKissic, and all the predraft visits they’ve had with running backs. They want one. Period. It’s not an opinion. Just look at what has been going on. They will add one. They know how close they are and McD wants a running game. A guy like Hall at 25 would bring this run game instant credibility. 1 minute ago, NewEra said: ……if a player like Kijana Carter, Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas, Tommy Vardell, Rashan salaam, Sammie smith, Terry Miller, Dj Dozier, Lawrence Phillips has a 5th year option, every team would hesitate to pick it up or sign them long term. two sides to every coin. You do realize we can just as easily draft a bust at another position right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, NewEra said: ……if a player like Kijana Carter, Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas, Tommy Vardell, Rashan salaam, Sammie smith, Terry Miller, Dj Dozier, Lawrence Phillips has a 5th year option, every team would hesitate to pick it up or sign them long term. two sides to every coin. To be fair, the history of the draft is littered with 1st round busts at every position. We can't just single out RB in that regard, though it certainly has had its fair share. Edited April 19, 2022 by Brandon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, whorlnut said: I think you are completely underselling last year that the bills were reportedly very high on Ettienne, this year when they made a play for McKissic, and all the predraft visits they’ve had with running backs. They want one. Period. It’s not an opinion. Just look at what has been going on. They will add one. They know how close they are and McD wants a running game. A guy like Hall at 25 would bring this run game instant credibility. You do realize we can just as easily draft a bust at another position right? I do….. you used thurman as an example…… while there are hundreds of examples to support the opposite side of your argument. There are hundreds of examples of both sides of each argument. the point is…..a RB 5th year option is less valuable than several other positions. Ask the titans and niners who are going to have to pay Brown and Deebo 25M a year earlier because they aren’t on a 5th year option. When you draft a player, you do so believing that that player will succeed and hope that the 5th year option is valuable, rather than a boon 6 minutes ago, Brandon said: To be fair, the history of the draft is littered with 1st round busts at every position. We can't just single out RB in that regard, though it certainly has had its fair share. Yes….I quoted someone that used Thurman as an example…..so I used examples too….. makes sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: I do….. you used thurman as an example…… while there are hundreds of examples to support the opposite side of your argument. There are hundreds of examples of both sides of each argument. the point is…..a RB 5th year option is less valuable than several other positions. Ask the titans and niners who are going to have to pay Brown and Deebo 25M a year earlier because they aren’t on a 5th year option. When you draft a player, you do so believing that that player will succeed and hope that the 5th year option is valuable, rather than a boon Yes….I quoted someone that used Thurman as an example…..so I used examples too….. makes sense I would love to have someone like Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson on a 5th year. I just don’t think they will be there. I also think if the Bills love Hall that he also won’t be there if they wait till 57. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deanjf Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 4:12 AM, Pete said: I love Breece too, but I’m certain we are going CB with first selection, unless Jameson is available. Then Beane has a tough call. Breece might even slip into first round imo I also really like Kenneth Walker Brian Robinson Jr. in the third - the anti-Singletary back - very physical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBeaneBandit Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, whorlnut said: I would love to have someone like Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson on a 5th year. I just don’t think they will be there. I also think if the Bills love Hall that he also won’t be there if they wait till 57. Agreed. Plus I dont see Hall making it past the top 5-10 picks of the 2nd round. While nowhere near my top choice, I would be cool with Hall at 25 if the first 24 picks went disastrously for the Bills wish list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yantha Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) One of my all time favorite players was LaDanian Tomlinson and I saw him GUSHING over Breece Hall's skill set recently. As far as I'm concerned, if Hall is as good as LT thinks he can be, it would be worth landing him despite our need at Cornerback. I'm actually thinking that if we don't trade UP for a cornerback, the best option would be to trade BACK for Breece Hall, and get an extra second rounder out of the trade (using one or both second round pics on cornerbacks). I also read an article where Beane was discussing our CB need and he is in a "don't panic" mindset and feels that there is plenty of time to address CB in the draft, and during the time after the draft, when guys like Joe Haden (and others who are testing the market) could see their prices reduced. In Beane I trust..... Edited April 19, 2022 by Yantha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Yantha said: One of my all time favorite players was LaDanian Tomlinson and I saw him GUSHING over Breece Hall's skill set recently. As far as I'm concerned, if Hall is as good as LT thinks he can be, it would be worth landing him despite our need at Cornerback. I'm actually thinking that if we don't trade UP for a cornerback, the best option would be to trade BACK for Breece Hall, and get an extra second rounder out of the trade (using one or both on cornerbacks). I also read an article where Beane was discussing our CB need and he is in a "don't panic" mindset and feels that there is plenty of time to address CB in the draft, and during the time after the draft, when guys like Joe Haden (and others who are testing the market) could see their prices reduced. In Beane I trust..... Been what I’ve been saying for a while now. They don’t seem to be nearly as panicked as most of the fans. They seem to like Dane Jackson and I’ll bet Tre is back sooner than most think. They also have an amazing track record of developing DBs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) How about about we trade our 4th round pick for Saquan Barkley for 1 year super bowl run and then let him walk. Use our 1st and 2nd round picks on CB and OG.? Edited April 19, 2022 by wppete 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said: Agreed. Plus I dont see Hall making it past the top 5-10 picks of the 2nd round. While nowhere near my top choice, I would be cool with Hall at 25 if the first 24 picks went disastrously for the Bills wish list. 100% agree. Hall will be long gone by the time 57 rolls around and it might cost a lot to trade up to get him in 2. If they want him I think they should take him at 25 or trade just outside the first and hope to land him there. Just now, wppete said: How about about we trade our 4th round pick for Saquan Barkley for 1 year super bowl run and then let him walk. Use our 1st and 2nd round picks on CB and OG.? How many weapons on one year deals do you want? Good grief… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yantha Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 1 minute ago, whorlnut said: Been what I’ve been saying for a while now. They don’t seem to be nearly as panicked as most of the fans. They seem to like Dane Jackson and I’ll bet Tre is back sooner than most think. They also have an amazing track record of developing DBs. Yes, and actually although I'm SURE they tried to shore up the position, the silver lining is that they will have more time to assess Tre's injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, whorlnut said: I would love to have someone like Jameson Williams or Garrett Wilson on a 5th year. I just don’t think they will be there. I also think if the Bills love Hall that he also won’t be there if they wait till 57. Agreed on both points. We just don’t know how much the Bills love Breece Hall or the other prospects that will be considered @ 25. If they like Hall and a corner, wr, DE, OT close to equally, drafting the rb would be foolish imo…..based on the 5th year option being much more valuable for the other positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yantha Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, wppete said: How about about we trade our 4th round pick for Saquan Barkley for 1 year super bowl run and then let him walk. Use our 1st and 2nd round picks on CB and OG.? You know, this draft is deep at WR and I'd rather see who's available as a potential long term player for the Bills with 4th round WR options. Interesting idea though. 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Agreed on both points. We just don’t know how much the Bills love Breece Hall or the other prospects that will be considered @ 25. If they like Hall and a corner, wr, DE, OT close to equally, drafting the rb would be foolish imo…..based on the 5th year option being much more valuable for the other positions. I think that the FO thinks more about whether a player will help the team win superbowls moreso than thinking about 5th year options. If a bon afide PLAYMAKER can be added, I think they just go get 'em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 I’m honestly beginning to think the Bills draft Hall. There are a lot of tells pointing in that direction. Eteniene rumors last year Bills going hard at McKissic (wanting a pass catching RB) settled for Duke McD comments on Thurman McDs frustrations with Daboll and wanting to establish a run game. Singletary contract ending Hall has the talent to be our Thurman and the pass catcher that McKissic is. I was originally thinking the Bills wouldn’t draft Hall, but I think there is a very good chance now. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: I’m honestly beginning to think the Bills draft Hall. There are a lot of tells pointing in that direction. Eteniene rumors last year Bills going hard at McKissic (wanting a pass catching RB) settled for Duke McD comments on Thurman McDs frustrations with Daboll and wanting to establish a run game. Singletary contract ending Hall has the talent to be our Thurman and the pass catcher that McKissic is. I was originally thinking the Bills wouldn’t draft Hall, but I think there is a very good chance now. I totally agree. This seems to have been brewing since last year with all the rumors. A dynamic RB would put this offense over the top. Hall has it all…he’s fast, big, durable, and has good hands in the passing game. Najee Harris was selected last year with the 24th pick. We are in a way better situation this year than the Steelers were last year. We have our long term qb and our oline is set this year. They had uncertainty at qb and with their oline and took Harris anyways. He worked out. No reason to think hall wouldn’t have a similar effect for this offense. Edited April 19, 2022 by whorlnut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milanos Milano Posted April 19, 2022 Author Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, whorlnut said: I totally agree. This seems to have been brewing since last year with all the rumors. A dynamic RB would put this offense over the top. Hall has it all…he’s fast, big, durable, and has good hands in the passing game. The fact that this thread keeps going gives me hope. I haven’t beaten the RB drum since Jonathan Taylor and I believe Hall is nearly as good. We haven’t had a dynamic RB in years. Edited April 19, 2022 by IronMaidenBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, Yantha said: One of my all time favorite players was LaDanian Tomlinson and I saw him GUSHING over Breece Hall's skill set recently. As far as I'm concerned, if Hall is as good as LT thinks he can be, it would be worth landing him despite our need at Cornerback. I'm actually thinking that if we don't trade UP for a cornerback, the best option would be to trade BACK for Breece Hall, and get an extra second rounder out of the trade (using one or both second round pics on cornerbacks). I also read an article where Beane was discussing our CB need and he is in a "don't panic" mindset and feels that there is plenty of time to address CB in the draft, and during the time after the draft, when guys like Joe Haden (and others who are testing the market) could see their prices reduced. In Beane I trust..... Martin Emerson or Alontae Taylor if you're getting an extra 2nd round pick for a Corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Yantha said: You know, this draft is deep at WR and I'd rather see who's available as a potential long term player for the Bills with 4th round WR options. Interesting idea though. I think that the FO thinks more about whether a player will help the team win superbowls moreso than thinking about 5th year options. If a bon afide PLAYMAKER can be added, I think they just go get 'em. You say that as if there aren’t any WRs capable of being bonafide playmakers that can help us win Super Bowls…..while making better usage of the 5th year option. Being a bonafide playmaker that can help us win a super bowl and being a player that makes better use of a 5th year option aren’t mutually exclusive. You can have both and most teams prefer to have both…..hence lack of RBs drafted in the first round when compared to other positions. It’s part of the equation. 9 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: The fact that this thread keeps going gives me hope. I haven’t beaten the RB drum since Jonathan Taylor and I believe Hall is nearly as good. We haven’t had a dynamic RB in years. If you and soloman were to disappear, so would the thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted April 19, 2022 Share Posted April 19, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: The fact that this thread keeps going gives me hope. I haven’t beaten the RB drum since Jonathan Taylor and I believe Hall is nearly as good. We haven’t had a dynamic RB in years. It’s interesting you bring up Taylor. Hall has been compared to him on more than one occasion. His production in college, his usage, and his amazing combine reeks Jonathan Taylor. One of the same knocks on Taylor is also a knock on Hall…many fear the wear and tear in college will catch up with him. How has that worked for Taylor? 7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Martin Emerson or Alontae Taylor if you're getting an extra 2nd round pick for a Corner Or Tariq Woolen or Cam Taylor-Britt. The point is…we do not “need” to take a corner in round 1 to get an immediate upgrade. I think most people are so used to defense in round 1 no matter what that they can’t even wrap their minds around possibly picking an offensive player. Edited April 19, 2022 by whorlnut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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